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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941375 times)
hdbuck
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November 01, 2014, 06:18:19 PM
 #2081


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.
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inca
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November 01, 2014, 06:40:33 PM
 #2082


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

Whilst I don't agree with the initial analysis predicting doom and the end of the USD. There is some very selective charting going on from both of you Smiley

People tend to forget that any bonds held by central banks from the QE programs globally don't really add anything to the national debt of the respective countries. They will simply be held until they expire. Of course it is banana republic economics but because it is going on all the Western economies simultaneously it is tolerated without capital flight.

Last time I checked the BOE owned nearly 40% of british bonds (gilts). Cost to the tax payer ? Nothing as the coupon payments are simply given straight back to the treasury. The net effect is simply expansion of narrow money into the wider economy through government spending (above taxation) to try and stoke up inflation whilst maintaining asset prices from collapse.
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November 01, 2014, 07:12:38 PM
 #2083

Speaking of endings sir, when will this bear market end? ;P
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November 01, 2014, 09:02:09 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2014, 10:18:45 PM by mmortal03
 #2084


rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The following doesn't have the dollar updated for October yet, but the long term dollar trend still looks down to me:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar-gold-and-oil-historical-chart
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November 03, 2014, 06:40:35 PM
 #2085

Since some believe that the current market movements are similar to the ones in July 2013, here are 2 charts that show they are not.




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Brisance
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November 04, 2014, 12:27:29 AM
 #2086

Speaking of US debt, it's actually well North of $60 Trillion Dollars some studies are saying as high as $70 Trillion Dollars.

The problem is when you look at sources like the US debt clock which stands at around $18 Trillion what you actually see is only the US Governments "reported" debt not the unreported debt. What the reported debt doesn't show you are current government obligations like Medicade, Social Security obligations which by the way is running close to $25 Trillion in debt itself, deposit insurance, loan guarantees to name a few.

If you want to get your head around "Off Balance Sheet Liabilities" here are a few sources to absorb:


Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19253

US debt six times greater than declared - study
http://rt.com/usa/us-debt-study-hamilton-economy-103/

US debt six times higher than declared
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/08/07/317608/us-debt-six-times-higher-than-declared/





 
boumalo
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November 04, 2014, 01:40:39 AM
 #2087


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The market is oblivious to the reality at the moment but it will come to an end; negative news oversea, the capital the innovation and the production in the states have bought the USD some time

prophetx
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November 05, 2014, 02:57:02 PM
 #2088

don't ever underestimate the dollar, it is the prima donna of all the fiat coins

prophetx
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November 05, 2014, 05:49:19 PM
 #2089

Don't fight the FED.

there is an interesting dynamic perhaps at play here

notice that btc is going up at the same time as the USD, this may seem counterintuitive

btc should be falling but now it is rising above the $, perhaps this means that some subset of users see BTC as more favorable than the U$D when getting out of other fiat currencies.



myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)


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November 10, 2014, 02:05:45 PM
 #2090

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-10/ukraine-central-bank-bans-bitcoin-protect-citizens-financing-terrorism

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
zby
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November 10, 2014, 02:10:53 PM
 #2091

I am waiting for Luc to come out of woods and declare that upper daily BB when falling is a very hard resistance.
hdbuck
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November 10, 2014, 06:03:17 PM
 #2092


lmafo those ukranian politicians are so f#cked up.
masterluc (OP)
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November 10, 2014, 09:00:14 PM
 #2093



masterluc (OP)
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November 10, 2014, 09:06:55 PM
 #2094

I am waiting for Luc to come out of woods and declare that upper daily BB when falling is a very hard resistance.
How did you get it? =)


Guano apes

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November 10, 2014, 09:15:31 PM
 #2095

So, double bottom coming?






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prophetx
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November 10, 2014, 11:05:47 PM
 #2096


they won't be able to ban it if they want to join the EU, otherwise we'll let Russia roll over them Smiley

anyway it is good press for us, rich Ukrainians will definitely see bitcoin as a go to option for getting their money out of the country
belmonty
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November 10, 2014, 11:51:43 PM
 #2097


Bitcoin might not have been banned in Ukraine. A forexminute article says a Ukrainian user in Reddit contradicts the news

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin-news/ukraine-ban-bitcoin-49499

Here's his reddit post

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2lvczp/ukraine_and_bitcoin_clarification/

The text below is quoted from the forexminute article, and basically says bitcoin has not been banned in Ukraine.

Posting his comment in /r/Bitcoin, this user says that as he can read National Bank of Ukraine website and their original posting, there is nothing like they have banned Bitcoin. According to him they stated that Bitcoin is not regulated by them or anybody and they cannot guarantee safety of funds or operations.
The user further clarifies that the National Bank of Ukraine stated that Bitcoin is often used for illegal activities and pointed out that only legal currency for payment for goods and services inside Ukraine is Hryvnia (UAH). According to them it always was that way; therefore, none can slap anything on price tag in the shop except UAH.

The National Bank of Ukraine also determined that the sale logic is applicable for other officially documented prices or contracts. The organization asks citizens to be vigilant for scams when using Bitcoin. Essentially, the Government bank is saying that if the users lose their money transacting Bitcoin, they are warned beforehand.

At the same time the National Bank of Ukraine has urged the citizens to use the national currency than Bitcoin for their business records and official prices and tax records. Essentially, the warning is typical that has been used by various other governments like India, China, Russia, etc. around the world that consider Bitcoin a challenge for their national currencies.
Bassica
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November 11, 2014, 11:27:31 AM
 #2098

Thanks for the update once again.

At what price will your latest count/prediction be invalid? $417.99 or lower?
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November 11, 2014, 11:39:46 AM
 #2099

user in Reddit contradicts the news

lol
belmonty
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November 11, 2014, 12:05:59 PM
 #2100

user in Reddit contradicts the news

lol

Here is the link to the Ukranian bank's warning. You can read it with google translate.

http://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=11879608&cat_id=80928

It does not say bitcoin has been banned, merely that it cannot be used as a means of payment in Ukraine. Here's the translation

Given the above, the National Bank of Ukraine considers "virtual currency / Cryptocurrency " Bitcoin as a money substitute that is not providing real value and can not be used by individuals and entities on the territory of Ukraine as a means of payment, because it is contrary to the norms of Ukrainian legislation

It also says the National Bank of Ukraine is not liable for risks and losses associated with the use of bitcoin. Here's the translation

We emphasize that the risks for use in the calculation of "virtual currency / Cryptocurrency " Bitsoin responsible party payments for them. National Bank of Ukraine as a regulator is not liable for risks and losses associated with the use of "virtual currency / Cryptocurrency " Bitsoin.
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