Bitcoin Difficulty Increase what's going on ?

[tke1600]

This has been gut wrenching to monitor.  Not only are the biggest pools growing in hashrate astronomically, but they are finding blocks well over 100% luck on a large scale for this difficulty adjustment coming up.  Antpool is at 121% luck for the last 3 days!  That is literally insane.  The difficulty projection jumped from 14% to almost 20% just in the last couple hours for the ENTIRE 2016 block period due to how many blocks the network is finding right now.  And ofcourse Bitcoin is tanking as well..........

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[vk985]

Hello,

I just checked the difficulty and it seems to increase a lot lately.

What is the reason behind this?

At this rate and if the price doesn't increase an s9 will not be much profitable by the summer....

I'm struggling whether I should invest in a dozen of S9 but things are not so motivating now compare to sept/oct when i first look into it.

Thanks for your insights.

We can all agree on one thing, everybody and their mother is talking about mining, and it will only be EXPONENTIALLY increasing from here. Current mining difficulty is 2.2 Trillion, and it went up 1 trillion from exactly 3 months ago. So If I was to predict the difficulty rate by end of 2018, considering the exponential factor. I would do it like this:

Apr 20th - 2.2+1.5=3.7 Trillion
Jul 20th -  3.7+2=5.7 Trillion
Oct 20th - 5.7+2.5=8.2 Trillion
Jan 20th - 8.2+3=11.2 Trillion

This makes the average difficulty for the 12 months at 6.7 Trillion.
Being optimistic about bitcoins price, we can say that it's 12 month average will be $30k. After $150 in electricity costs, that will leave us with with an average monthly profit of $300 per month per S9 from now until January 20th, 2019. That is my prediction. Any thoughts?

Economics 101: thinking at the margin.  Spend $150, make $300 sounds like a good deal to me.  If I could do this ten times simultaneously, I would.  But my only concern is the sustainability of these profits.  Remember that difficulty is increasing exponentially but so is computing power.  So the next generation equipment will be exponentially stronger than the current generation's.

Are you saying that there will be a new Antminer model this year with at least 30 TH/s and cost in the $3k range?

[alh]

Are you saying that there will be a new Antminer model this year with at least 30 TH/s and cost in the $3k range?

Keep in mind the name of this sub-forum: Miner Speculation

[Sandal_Hat]

Hmmm currently 6 gpu eth mining rig is now more profitable than an S9 or L3. I never seen this before....
Gpu mining is alot easier to do and by should give less returns by right.

[Druiz287]

Hmmm currently 6 gpu eth mining rig is now more profitable than an S9 or L3. I never seen this before....
Gpu mining is alot easier to do and by should give less returns by right.

Maybe we are in for a BTC price adjustment at some point soon?  Couldn’t come any sooner, beforr all the S9s are not profitable anymore.

[Yrth]

Hello,

I just checked the difficulty and it seems to increase a lot lately.

What is the reason behind this?

At this rate and if the price doesn't increase an s9 will not be much profitable by the summer....

I'm struggling whether I should invest in a dozen of S9 but things are not so motivating now compare to sept/oct when i first look into it.

Thanks for your insights.

We can all agree on one thing, everybody and their mother is talking about mining, and it will only be EXPONENTIALLY increasing from here. Current mining difficulty is 2.2 Trillion, and it went up 1 trillion from exactly 3 months ago. So If I was to predict the difficulty rate by end of 2018, considering the exponential factor. I would do it like this:

Apr 20th - 2.2+1.5=3.7 Trillion
Jul 20th -  3.7+2=5.7 Trillion
Oct 20th - 5.7+2.5=8.2 Trillion
Jan 20th - 8.2+3=11.2 Trillion

This makes the average difficulty for the 12 months at 6.7 Trillion.
Being optimistic about bitcoins price, we can say that it's 12 month average will be $30k. After $150 in electricity costs, that will leave us with with an average monthly profit of $300 per month per S9 from now until January 20th, 2019. That is my prediction. Any thoughts?

Well it's currently 2.6T with about 19Eh/s in gear. For the diff to get to 11.2T, there would have to be another 70-75Eh/s in miners manufactured. Which would be a shit ton more than has been produced since the inception of the s9. I don't think the chip foundries could even keep up with that demand.

[Sandal_Hat]

Hmmm currently 6 gpu eth mining rig is now more profitable than an S9 or L3. I never seen this before....
Gpu mining is alot easier to do and by should give less returns by right.

Maybe we are in for a BTC price adjustment at some point soon?  Couldn’t come any sooner, beforr all the S9s are not profitable anymore.

I think btc has gone up alot recently and may not move for abit though. Same for eth. I wont say it becomes not profitable but it will be very low and roi will be too long for new miners especially. It is sad that gpu makes more considering they are far easier to do....

[vk985]

Hello,

I just checked the difficulty and it seems to increase a lot lately.

What is the reason behind this?

At this rate and if the price doesn't increase an s9 will not be much profitable by the summer....

I'm struggling whether I should invest in a dozen of S9 but things are not so motivating now compare to sept/oct when i first look into it.

Thanks for your insights.

We can all agree on one thing, everybody and their mother is talking about mining, and it will only be EXPONENTIALLY increasing from here. Current mining difficulty is 2.2 Trillion, and it went up 1 trillion from exactly 3 months ago. So If I was to predict the difficulty rate by end of 2018, considering the exponential factor. I would do it like this:

Apr 20th - 2.2+1.5=3.7 Trillion
Jul 20th -  3.7+2=5.7 Trillion
Oct 20th - 5.7+2.5=8.2 Trillion
Jan 20th - 8.2+3=11.2 Trillion

This makes the average difficulty for the 12 months at 6.7 Trillion.
Being optimistic about bitcoins price, we can say that it's 12 month average will be $30k. After $150 in electricity costs, that will leave us with with an average monthly profit of $300 per month per S9 from now until January 20th, 2019. That is my prediction. Any thoughts?

Well it's currently 2.6T with about 19Eh/s in gear. For the diff to get to 11.2T, there would have to be another 70-75Eh/s in miners manufactured. Which would be a shit ton more than has been produced since the inception of the s9. I don't think the chip foundries could even keep up with that demand.

Well it already went up 0.4 Trillion from my January 20th posting. Believe it or not, it's happening lol.

[A.Delaney]

I am afraid with the level that difficulty is increasing it will be hard for the little guys to really benefit from mining in the future. I have debated on buying S9's now or just wait for the next generation of miners to come out and save my money in the meantime. Id hate to buy 20k worth of S9's and then something new comes out. Looks like the E10 is 18Th/s . Certainly other companies will have to step up to compete with that.

[Flying Hellfish]

I am afraid with the level that difficulty is increasing it will be hard for the little guys to really benefit from mining in the future. I have debated on buying S9's now or just wait for the next generation of miners to come out and save my money in the meantime. Id hate to buy 20k worth of S9's and then something new comes out. Looks like the E10 is 18Th/s . Certainly other companies will have to step up to compete with that.

People have been saying this since 2013!! 

Seriously though difficulty will follow price in the long run.  The reason diff has increased exponentially is quite obviously because coin price has as well.  If coin price was still $100 do you think we would have this much hash rate LOL?  It's not hard to see that the more profitable mining is the more people want to do it!  As it becomes less profitable less people are inclined to mine.  If coin price ever stabilized for a long period of time we would hit a soft equilibrium where only those with the lowest of overhead prices would be able to mine profitably.  Believe it or not the system was designed as a near zero sum game and is working exactly as intended.

The problem is that this motion of diff following price is really really slow compared to how fast coin price fluctuates.  Diff is always trying to play catch up.  With such massive volatility in coin price the old slow train diff just can't keep up.

You can't predict what will happen to diff because you can't predict what will happen to coin price.  What we do know is that if coin price explodes or trends up for a "long" time that difficulty will move with it... eventually.  2017 saw both, it makes a lot of sense to predict diff is going up.  If newer machines are made available it will only go up faster!

[Par Avion]

What will happen soon though, is miner costs will go down as those that can't compete get out of the game, or newbies coming in never ROI and have to take a loss.

I semi hope price stagnates for another month or so, so I can collect a few more miners from those whos dreams were thrashed.

[A.Delaney]

I noticed there are several S9's for sale in the marketplace with nobody really moving on them. I too hope the price we are at now stays for a few months just to bring the miner price down some.

[vk985]

I am afraid with the level that difficulty is increasing it will be hard for the little guys to really benefit from mining in the future. I have debated on buying S9's now or just wait for the next generation of miners to come out and save my money in the meantime. Id hate to buy 20k worth of S9's and then something new comes out. Looks like the E10 is 18Th/s . Certainly other companies will have to step up to compete with that.

People have been saying this since 2013!! 

Seriously though difficulty will follow price in the long run.  The reason diff has increased exponentially is quite obviously because coin price has as well.  If coin price was still $100 do you think we would have this much hash rate LOL?  It's not hard to see that the more profitable mining is the more people want to do it!  As it becomes less profitable less people are inclined to mine.  If coin price ever stabilized for a long period of time we would hit a soft equilibrium where only those with the lowest of overhead prices would be able to mine profitably.  Believe it or not the system was designed as a near zero sum game and is working exactly as intended.

The problem is that this motion of diff following price is really really slow compared to how fast coin price fluctuates.  Diff is always trying to play catch up.  With such massive volatility in coin price the old slow train diff just can't keep up.

You can't predict what will happen to diff because you can't predict what will happen to coin price.  What we do know is that if coin price explodes or trends up for a "long" time that difficulty will move with it... eventually.  2017 saw both, it makes a lot of sense to predict diff is going up.  If newer machines are made available it will only go up faster!

What amount would you consider to be a low overhead per S9?

[A.Delaney]

I am afraid with the level that difficulty is increasing it will be hard for the little guys to really benefit from mining in the future. I have debated on buying S9's now or just wait for the next generation of miners to come out and save my money in the meantime. Id hate to buy 20k worth of S9's and then something new comes out. Looks like the E10 is 18Th/s . Certainly other companies will have to step up to compete with that.

People have been saying this since 2013!! 

Seriously though difficulty will follow price in the long run.  The reason diff has increased exponentially is quite obviously because coin price has as well.  If coin price was still $100 do you think we would have this much hash rate LOL?  It's not hard to see that the more profitable mining is the more people want to do it!  As it becomes less profitable less people are inclined to mine.  If coin price ever stabilized for a long period of time we would hit a soft equilibrium where only those with the lowest of overhead prices would be able to mine profitably.  Believe it or not the system was designed as a near zero sum game and is working exactly as intended.

The problem is that this motion of diff following price is really really slow compared to how fast coin price fluctuates.  Diff is always trying to play catch up.  With such massive volatility in coin price the old slow train diff just can't keep up.

You can't predict what will happen to diff because you can't predict what will happen to coin price.  What we do know is that if coin price explodes or trends up for a "long" time that difficulty will move with it... eventually.  2017 saw both, it makes a lot of sense to predict diff is going up.  If newer machines are made available it will only go up faster!

What amount would you consider to be a low overhead per S9?

Well the price Bitmain sells them for is the lowest you will get one, and the most you should pay.

[Flying Hellfish]

What amount would you consider to be a low overhead per S9?

I can't give you a hard number bud!  Those with the lowest capital cost of equipment and the lowest electrical rate in the simplest of terms. 

It is entirely plausible that in the future bitcoin mining will only be done by manufacture's as they will have access to the lowest possible priced units.  It's also plausible that at some point manufacturing costs begin to approach the unprofitable mark.  That is assuming tech flat lines as well as coin price.

Think about Bitmain and their cost to manufacture a unit.  That cost is A LOT lower than current retail pricing.  Combined with sub $.05 usd/kwh and you can see how easily they could outlast any retail purchasing miner for a LONG time in the event of declining coin price and a prolonged low coin price.  What happens if coin price falls to 4K and sits there for 5 years.  Most miners are betting against that as are most folks in this forum in general but it's not an impossibility!

It's also entirely plausible because BTC has the possibility IMO to go a lot higher in price that we see a much larger profit window for a long time to come! 

Until we can predict the impossible we can only speculate and ENJOY the fuckin ride!

[Sandal_Hat]

What amount would you consider to be a low overhead per S9?

I can't give you a hard number bud!  Those with the lowest capital cost of equipment and the lowest electrical rate in the simplest of terms. 

It is entirely plausible that in the future bitcoin mining will only be done by manufacture's as they will have access to the lowest possible priced units.  It's also plausible that at some point manufacturing costs begin to approach the unprofitable mark.  That is assuming tech flat lines as well as coin price.

Think about Bitmain and their cost to manufacture a unit.  That cost is A LOT lower than current retail pricing.  Combined with sub $.05 usd/kwh and you can see how easily they could outlast any retail purchasing miner for a LONG time in the event of declining coin price and a prolonged low coin price.  What happens if coin price falls to 4K and sits there for 5 years.  Most miners are betting against that as are most folks in this forum in general but it's not an impossibility!

It's also entirely plausible because BTC has the possibility IMO to go a lot higher in price that we see a much larger profit window for a long time to come! 

Until we can predict the impossible we can only speculate and ENJOY the fuckin ride!

U make a good point here....but i dont think bitmain will not care for its customers like that

[r01k]

....but i dont think bitmain will not care for its customers like that

Really?! Bitmain exists  to make $$$. All they care for is their customers' money... as long as it's being transferred to Bitmain's pocket.

[Druiz287]

Seeing a lot of S7s and Avalon 6s hit the market recently.  This could be good for us that decide to stay in.

[dlezama]

....but i dont think bitmain will not care for its customers like that

Really?! Bitmain exists  to make $$$. All they care for is their customers' money... as long as it's being transferred to Bitmain's pocket.

I wonder if the guy ever bought from bitmain...

[the_electronrancher]

It's interesting that the news reports that China is cutting miners off of subsidized electricity, but bitmain is racking in hundreds of units a day.. Where?  Are their bribes just so thick that their power usage is immune to these new regulations?  Or the reports are just BS, maybe - I was expecting to see s9's flooding out of China as displaced miners scrambled to roi.  Again, nothing.