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市值破万亿大关 贵州茅台高处不胜寒?
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Topic: 市值破万亿大关 贵州茅台高处不胜寒? (Read 66 times)
jmvzlfyg
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市值破万亿大关 贵州茅台高处不胜寒?
January 16, 2018, 05:38:54 AM
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贵州茅台股价到底能涨多高,一方面取决于其供求状况,另一方面也与其零售价是否上涨有关。
本周一,贵州茅台高开后冲高回落,盘中最高见799.06元,离800元整数关口咫尺之遥,其总市值于盘中突破万亿大关,也成为目前第七只总市值突破万亿大关的股票。贵州茅台的强势上涨,早已引发市场对于其股价高低的争议。看多看空,亦是见仁见智。
贵州茅台最踏实的粉丝非深圳东方港湾的但斌莫属。在主题为“价值投资的时代机遇”的第二届私募大会上,但斌曾表示了其对于茅台的极度看好。总体而言,其看好的理由主要着眼点在于贵州茅台提价以及供给少需求大上。但斌甚至表示,贵州茅台2018年底或涨到令市场惊讶的程度。除了但斌外,多家券商亦是力挺贵州茅台。如中金公司给出了925元的目标价,更有研究人员“眼光独到”,认为10年后贵州茅台股价会涨到3820元。
看空者也不乏理由。有基金经理认为,贵州茅台估值已经不低了,现在进场风险较大。也有私募认为,从当前的估值来看,入手贵州茅台就是在买泡沫,需要承担一定风险。至于贵州茅台何时见顶的问题,有市场人士认为,茅台酒的零售价下调之日便是贵州茅台股价见顶之时。
贵州茅台堪称近两三年来A股市场的一面旗帜。2015年底,贵州茅台的总市值不过2586亿元;到了2016年底则飙升至4125亿元,到2017年底,再上一台阶,总市值达到8788亿元。伴随着贵州茅台股价节节攀升的,则是其总市值犹如“芝麻开花节节高”,直至突破9000亿元、万亿大关。也正是在贵州茅台的带领下,自去年以来,沪深股市的蓝筹股、白马股表现抢眼,也在市场上形成了强烈的“二八效应”。
贵州茅台股价到底能涨多高,一方面取决于供求状况,另一方面也与其零售价波动有关。但斌认为贵州茅台的企业特质比生产香烟的菲利普莫里斯还好,并且假设贵州茅台也能与菲利普莫里斯一样持续地提价,个人认为这是不现实的。其一,如果贵州茅台今后的产能上去了,供求关系改变了,那么茅台提价也就失去了基础。其二,如果贵州茅台一直提价的话,也会涨到老百姓消费不起的程度。更何况,贵州茅台一直涨价并不现实。这也就意味着,贵州茅台股价也会有见顶的时候,特别是在总市值已破万亿大关的情形下。
公、私募基金经理对于茅台股价开始产生分歧,对于其后续走势将产生不利影响。虽然贵州茅台股价不断突破多个整数关口,但股价涨至高位时,也会让投资者产生高处不胜寒的感觉。事实上,700多元一股的贵州茅台,早已将中小散户排除在外,变成了大资金、大机构追逐的对象与目标。而当大机构、大资金对贵州茅台股价产生分歧时,当初合力拉抬股价的一幕将不再出现,而变成了一方拉抬一方在兑现筹码的格局,此格局势必影响贵州茅台后市的走势。
此外,贵州茅台目前的动态市盈率已高达37倍,其市盈率水平在蓝筹股与白马股中属于较高水平,这一点是不容置疑的。如果茅台的业绩不能持续增长,其维持较高的市盈率将不太现实,这亦是市场不可忽视的一个方面。
虽然目前贵州茅台风光无限,但其股价也会有见顶的一天。投资者可回顾一下当年的中国船舶、前两年的全通教育、安硕信息的走势,隐藏在风光无限背后的一地鸡毛,贵州茅台或许也跳不出这种怪圈。因此,对于总市值突破万亿的贵州茅台,投资者还是保持一份谨慎为好。
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