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Author Topic: The REAL bubbles  (Read 6727 times)
ElectricMucus
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August 17, 2013, 05:24:34 PM
 #21

$1000... when?? Stop lyin bro

this is not a forecast.

I said that if/when BTC would hit 1000$ we should carefully watch the public sentiment to judge whether there is more upside or whether we will see  a big correction first.


There is something peculiar with your comments - did you spill ink on the keyboard?

He has a papa smurf complex.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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johnyj
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August 17, 2013, 05:43:09 PM
 #22

Although both bitcoin and a stock have limited supply, they have fundamental differences

Stocks represent the value of a company, if the underlying company go broke, the company worth nothing, then stocks will worth nothing, no one will accept it in exchange for fiat money

But bitcoin represent the value of its underlying math/network infrastructure and people's trust, merchants' support. It is also possible those things were destroyed, but the possibility is very small

Most stocks' price will crash when central banks tighten the money supply. And central banks will always try to cool down the market when stock price rose too high, so bubble and burst cycle is a norm

But for bitcoins, unless all the central banks in the world tightens at the same time, there will not be a liquidity problem, thus price will not crash

If all the central banks tighten at the same time, there will be a huge liquidity problem everywhere and people will search for an alternative currency that can satisfy the transaction need, it will be bitcoin, so actually bitcoin's demand will eventually rise and price will be higher

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August 17, 2013, 06:42:06 PM
 #23

$1000... when??
Within 5 years, possibly within 2.
S3052
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August 17, 2013, 06:44:03 PM
 #24

Although both bitcoin and a stock have limited supply, they have fundamental differences

Stocks represent the value of a company, if the underlying company go broke, the company worth nothing, then stocks will worth nothing, no one will accept it in exchange for fiat money

But bitcoin represent the value of its underlying math/network infrastructure and people's trust, merchants' support. It is also possible those things were destroyed, but the possibility is very small

Most stocks' price will crash when central banks tighten the money supply. And central banks will always try to cool down the market when stock price rose too high, so bubble and burst cycle is a norm

But for bitcoins, unless all the central banks in the world tightens at the same time, there will not be a liquidity problem, thus price will not crash

If all the central banks tighten at the same time, there will be a huge liquidity problem everywhere and people will search for an alternative currency that can satisfy the transaction need, it will be bitcoin, so actually bitcoin's demand will eventually rise and price will be higher



That is an excellent reasoning.
Fundamentally, there are high chances that bitcoin can further grow for another number of years - sometimes exponentially, sometimes linear, with corrections / consolidations along the way.

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August 17, 2013, 06:44:50 PM
 #25

$1000... when?? Stop lyin bro

this is not a forecast.

I said that if/when BTC would hit 1000$ we should carefully watch the public sentiment to judge whether there is more upside or whether we will see  a big correction first.


There is something peculiar with your comments - did you spill ink on the keyboard?

Lol
It's simple , my favorite color is blue and it is available here

AU
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August 17, 2013, 07:08:48 PM
 #26

All im gonna saying is a many will suffer painful loses before any fuckin $1000 day.

Only the whales come out victorious...




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ElectricMucus
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August 17, 2013, 07:30:21 PM
 #27

All im gonna saying is a many will suffer painful loses before any fuckin $1000 day.

Only the whales come out victorious...





No it will be the terminators.


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August 17, 2013, 08:14:00 PM
 #28

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?

The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll  have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins.
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August 17, 2013, 08:31:15 PM
 #29

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?

The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll  have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins.

Yes.
That's a good one.

ArticMine
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August 18, 2013, 05:12:28 AM
 #30

The Bitcoin bubbles in November 2010 and February 2011 actually look very real to me. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-09-01zeg2011-04-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzv

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
adamstgBit
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August 18, 2013, 05:41:57 AM
 #31

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?



Bubbles are artificial  Wink

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Saying it how it is

yes, I wonder what the media says when bitcoin hits 1000$. perhaps they will again call a bubble or they say that next target is 10000$.
If they say the latter, I'd be wary about a bubble. If it is the former, there is more upside.

And on stocks, we can wait until the financial media calls for "sell stocks", because this will be close to the actual bottom. This may be around 400 for the dow jones industrials.
+1

good thread!

me i say 3000$ is the next target

its not hard to see bitcoin worth +1000$....

Walsoraj
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Ultranode


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August 18, 2013, 06:39:49 PM
 #32


good thread!

me i say 3000$ is the next target

its not hard to see bitcoin worth +1000$ +100000$ ....

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
S3052
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August 18, 2013, 06:49:53 PM
 #33


good thread!

me i say 3000$ is the next target

its not hard to see bitcoin worth +1000$ +100000$ ....

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

now we are onto something interesting..

We never discussed about a SPLIT.

Stocks are split regularly, but in BTC this does not really work. Any idea?
If there is no split, BTCUSD will be like Warren Buffet's stock. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Current price 173,220.00 $

Walsoraj
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August 18, 2013, 06:58:11 PM
 #34

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?

The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll  have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins.

Yes.
That's a good one.

huh? bond burst results from rising interest rates... If that happens, virtually all assets including gold, houses, BITCOIN, etc, should go down, no?

bond bubble is not good for bitcoin, unless you intend to sell before rates go up and re-buy at bottom. good luck timing that.
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August 18, 2013, 06:59:33 PM
 #35

Bitcoin's "split" is switching from common use of BTC to mBTC.

I am actually waiting for party with BRK/A :-)




here an overlay (with different axis, still needed :-))

S3052
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August 18, 2013, 07:02:43 PM
 #36

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?

The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll  have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins.

Yes.
That's a good one.

huh? bond burst results from rising interest rates... If that happens, virtually all assets including gold, houses, BITCOIN, etc, should go down, no?

bond bubble is not good for bitcoin, unless you intend to sell before rates go up and re-buy at bottom. good luck timing that.

there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...

Walsoraj
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August 18, 2013, 07:59:18 PM
 #37


there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...


Yea, ok. bitcoin has lots of potential, agree. but why on earth would you buy pre-crash? rising interest rates = mad dash towards dollars. everything else tanks.

imho: save your dollars and buy tons more bitcoins post-burst. then sit around and wait for inevitable wave of inflation.

bottom line, stupid to buy and hold right now if you KNOW a bond collapse is coming. be patient. noobs
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August 18, 2013, 08:07:54 PM
 #38


there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...


Yea, ok. bitcoin has lots of potential, agree. but why on earth would you buy pre-crash? rising interest rates = mad dash towards dollars. everything else tanks.

imho: save your dollars and buy tons more bitcoins post-burst. then sit around and wait for inevitable wave of inflation.

bottom line, stupid to buy and hold right now if you KNOW a bond collapse is coming. be patient. noobs

you have a great point, definitely.

However, it all depends on your time horizon.
One thing I learned painfully over the first years of analyses and trading is that you should not assume certain market correlations hold forever. Instead you need to analyze each market separately, and only use the correlations with other assets as one out of many indicators.

when it comes to the Bitcoin forecast I do not want to get into specifics here as this would be unfair to paying subscribers ( a new report will come out in the next 24 hours and I am sure it will be very interesting as something happens with BTCUSD).

Net, there are different time frames and some of them warrant to be long bitcoins , even if in some point a bigger correction could come. But you can still sell then..

Walsoraj
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August 18, 2013, 08:10:14 PM
 #39

so what you are saying without saying is btc will be immune, at least partially, to general asset depreciation when key interest rates go up? dunno... that's a risky proposition, if that is indeed what you maintain
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August 18, 2013, 08:24:45 PM
 #40

so what you are saying without saying is btc will be immune, at least partially, to general asset depreciation when key interest rates go up? dunno... that's a risky proposition, if that is indeed what you maintain

for significant periods of time, yes.
but I am also referring to the BTCUSD rate only at this stage, and in some point the USD will be far weaker. Net, even if both fall, as the USD should fall harder, BTCUSD will rise.

But again, we will analyse all this on a daily / weekly basis as noone can predict the next years exactly today. some things will change along the way that require to verify / adjust the forecast frequently.

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