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Author Topic: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680  (Read 40321 times)
RChevalier
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August 18, 2013, 08:01:54 AM
 #401

One of the mods could easily clarify this (checking the IP from where BFL-Engineer posted this).

@BFL-Engineer, would this be OK for you?


We don't need to see his IP identification.  These aren't the cards we're looking for.  You can go about your business.  Move along.
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August 18, 2013, 08:06:29 AM
 #402

Fool me twice, shame on Josh Zerlan.

This company is clearly circling the drain. 

lolz at anyone trusting them for new-new ASICs. 

I will enjoy watching it die.

I'm flying FPV race drones these days. Check out my YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MiconFPV
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August 18, 2013, 08:11:14 AM
 #403

Jesus,

The ASIC wars are just beginning, it's going to get nasty, real nasty! Who can do it cheaper and faster? It's going to be really interesting because they have to do that somehow without pissing off their original customers, whom  have paid more.

I think we'll see Cointerra and xCrowd come in a few days/weeks with an even better Gh/$ device.

Just insanity.

Buy 80 Gh for 100 BTC in April 2013.

Buy 600 Gh for 60 BTC in August 2013.  Shocked

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August 18, 2013, 08:14:23 AM
 #404

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.



Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a
I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction.

But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners.

In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers.



i think the 52% increase in difficulty per month is closer to the target vs that 60% number someone else had

but, this is assuming you actually get it in january 2014 (not very likely).  it's also assuming static price for bitcoins (could happen).

i go with coherent logix!


Dacentec Dedicated Servers (Lenoir, NC, USA) from $25/mo & Time4VPS Storage VPS' (Vilnius, Lithuania) from €18/qtr & Hetzner's serverbidding, from ~€20/mo -- had bitcoin nodes & p2pool (dacentec, hetzner) for several years on these.  Only two are affiliate links too, kek! -------  Feel free to join my G2A Goldmine Pyramid Scheme Team, or possibly even buy a Steam game from there.  Maybe.
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August 18, 2013, 08:49:27 AM
 #405

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
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August 18, 2013, 09:03:07 AM
 #406

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.
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August 18, 2013, 09:08:55 AM
 #407

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% every month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of exponential growth starting today is realistic. In the past, we saw a 100% growth per month for 18 contiguous months between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However I think nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Basically, assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable.

Well, if the Monarch is unprofitable, then so will all other mining gear currently being sold. So lets they just ship really late instead.

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August 18, 2013, 09:35:20 AM
 #408


No CEO???
2GOOD
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First bits: 12good


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August 18, 2013, 09:44:15 AM
 #409

Quote
Tape out August 2013
November/December delivery

delivery .... what year  Huh Shocked Grin Grin Grin Grin

Български Биткойн Форум - BitcoinBG.eu
Tips accepted at: 12good4Buys8cvTj6EB4MTGNTSC4w9Swnz
xstr8guy
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August 18, 2013, 09:50:49 AM
 #410

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.



Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a

Who is cherrypicking stats?
Your figure would need for the diff increase to be under 25% per jump.
That is not the fact.


Try plugging in 82%  PER MONTH   
1+35%+35%=1.8225

That is the current reality.

You were getting fucked in the exit orifice before, now you poured sand in the vaselene.

You are definately a masochist.


No doubt that difficulty will increase a massive amount but percentage-wise the increase will be smaller as we move beyond the next few months.  Think about that for a moment and it might make sense.
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August 18, 2013, 09:55:38 AM
 #411

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.


Thank you for saying this!  No one seems to understand this concept at all.
Bicknellski
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August 18, 2013, 10:02:37 AM
 #412

These aren't the cards we're looking for.  You can go about your business.  Move along.



Dogie trust abuse, spam, bullying, conspiracy posts & insults to forum members. Ask the mods or admins to move Dogie's spam or off topic stalking posts to the link above.
Its About Sharing
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August 18, 2013, 10:12:23 AM
 #413

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.

I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC...

Not saying we go that high anytime soon, but I have a feeling we are going up and the mining industry are partially behind it.  Shocked

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
erk
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August 18, 2013, 10:46:16 AM
 #414

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

The calculators adjust based on historical data, if the difficulty rise slows down, the calculators will adjust to reflect that. The slow down has to actually happen first, so far it has not, the difficulty rise has been accelerating.
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August 18, 2013, 12:45:18 PM
 #415

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% every month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of exponential growth starting today is realistic. In the past, we saw a 100% growth per month for 18 contiguous months between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However I think nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Basically, assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable.

Well, if the Monarch is unprofitable, then so will all other mining gear currently being sold. So lets they just ship really late instead.
Competitors will make better/faster/cheaper unit that actually ship well before BFL does.
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August 18, 2013, 12:54:19 PM
 #416

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.


Thank you for saying this!  No one seems to understand this concept at all.

You also fail to realize how much money is involved here. How many successful NRE's have been met, at least 5 so far.   As the price of ASICs keep going down (fixed cost after NRE) the hashrate will keep going up (no shortage of greedy people).  I mean really, who doesn't want to print their own money?

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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August 18, 2013, 01:22:05 PM
 #417

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.



Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a
I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction.

But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners.

In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers.



i think the 52% increase in difficulty per month is closer to the target vs that 60% number someone else had

but, this is assuming you actually get it in january 2014 (not very likely).  it's also assuming static price for bitcoins (could happen).

i go with coherent logix!


My numbers are very conservative. If you click this link:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/033d84b75b

You will notice the rate of change over the last couple of months according to genesis block (without the fudged number by the member quoted above).

This is without all the 400Gh/s ASICs or the BFL backlog, nor Avalon, nor HashFast, etc.

It won't take a genius alot of time to figure out when I tap in 60% per month that I am being extremely generous with the calc. I figure it will even out the error of dips and spikes in the rate increase.





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August 18, 2013, 02:31:36 PM
 #418

I CANT BELIEVE IT
DUMB HAG BITCH



Thats the hag thats been making wise ass remarks and nonsensical bullshit blogs on their website? SHES THAT MUCH OLDER?
From her remarks I thought she was like 20 judging.

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August 18, 2013, 02:45:49 PM
 #419

mature, granny, with glasses, 60+, mom and son (with Josh)

this lady should switch her career to other kind of business (she is probably very good with fucking others)
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August 18, 2013, 03:27:45 PM
 #420

Just saw this on Twitter - WOW...

Roger Ver ‏@rogerkver 7h
"I would rather sit in a tub full of pig feces and smoke meth from a hollowed out fetus then order anything from Butterfly Labs." -Reddit

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