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Author Topic: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680  (Read 39311 times)
User705
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August 18, 2013, 11:55:12 PM
 #481

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.

I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC...

The price of BTC is irrelevant in making an investment decision between moving your capital to (1) BTC, or (2) mining equipment. This has been explained many times. If BTC gains value both choices bring more returns. If BTC loses value both choices bring less returns. The question is which one will make you end up with more BTC at the end. So the only part of the equation to take into account is how much does the mining equipment cost today (in BTC), and how much BTC it could mine in the future.



Exactly. Unless for some people buying mining hardware is the only way for them to acquire large amounts of Bitcoins, as getting money into Bitcoins is much harder than purchasing hardware in many circumstances. Smiley
Huh How hard can it be to buy 4600 worth of bitcoins?
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August 19, 2013, 12:24:22 AM
 #482

Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!


I think PG thinks this is madness.

Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
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August 19, 2013, 12:28:06 AM
 #483

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.
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August 19, 2013, 12:32:03 AM
 #484

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.
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August 19, 2013, 12:33:30 AM
 #485

Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!
Madness!


I think PG thinks this is madness.

I see you noticed that I kept increasing the font size.  Grin

FUckiN' INsaNE!
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August 19, 2013, 12:37:37 AM
 #486

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.
+1
from what i have seen in BFL shout box, there creaming their panties...
 Shocked

Phinnaeus Gage
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August 19, 2013, 12:39:53 AM
 #487

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.

There are more people in the world spending bitcoins on BFL products then there are spending on everyday items like shoes, socks, and food. No wonder the exchange rate is stuck at (insert approximate symbol here of which I can't find on my new computer)$100/BTC.
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August 19, 2013, 12:41:40 AM
 #488

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.
+1
from what i have seen in BFL shout box, there creaming their panties...
 Shocked

You're kidding me, right! Are you saying that BFL fanboys are happy with the latest news? Don't make me go over there and look to see for myself.
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August 19, 2013, 12:48:12 AM
 #489

this thread is getting ugly.....  why does no one factor in a bitcoin price increase and only a difficulty increase on the charts....
I did, 5% per month.

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Phinnaeus Gage
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August 19, 2013, 12:49:53 AM
 #490

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.
+1
from what i have seen in BFL shout box, there creaming their panties...
 Shocked

You're kidding me, right! Are you saying that BFL fanboys are happy with the latest news? Don't make me go over there and look to see for myself.

I think the shoutbox gang saw me coming, thus one of them wiseguys posted this: http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/80a71ef8cb/more-cowbell
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August 19, 2013, 12:50:25 AM
 #491

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

In a sane world you would be right but sadly I think you will be wrong.  My guess is they get enough pre-orders within a week.
+1
from what i have seen in BFL shout box, there creaming their panties...
 Shocked

You're kidding me, right! Are you saying that BFL fanboys are happy with the latest news? Don't make me go over there and look to see for myself.
I dont think he is, The terrible part is that majority of people who are new to bitcoin and look for a way to mine btc really fast, End up seeing BFL's fancy ads and goes "buybuybuybuy!"
Then they do research, realise it was a stupid idea, then read the "all sales final" text

http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=DingoRabiit&sign=ANY&type=RECV <-My Ratings
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.0 GAWminers and associated things are not to be trusted, Especially the "mineral" exchange
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August 19, 2013, 12:52:08 AM
 #492

Hmm Good point. I think you just invented a new hedging strategy that only screws re-sellers and not BFL.

Watch, everyone will start doing this now.

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August 19, 2013, 12:56:56 AM
 #493

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.

I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC...

The price of BTC is irrelevant in making an investment decision between moving your capital to (1) BTC, or (2) mining equipment. This has been explained many times. If BTC gains value both choices bring more returns. If BTC loses value both choices bring less returns. The question is which one will make you end up with more BTC at the end. So the only part of the equation to take into account is how much does the mining equipment cost today (in BTC), and how much BTC it could mine in the future.


Pretty much.

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August 19, 2013, 12:59:32 AM
 #494

I am one of the still relatively rare happy BFL customers who received my order within only 9 months of ordering.  Watching the difficulty with which BFL developed the product and after experiencing the many levels of frustration that BFL unleashed, I am very reluctant to buy the new product.  Maybe I'm a fool and when people are mining in early 2014 with these devices I'll be green with jealousy, but in the meantime I can live without the stress of potentially losing my money.  Despite BFL already having experience with ASICs, I feel moving to a new process and new board design will make it unlikely the product will ship any time during 2013.

No credit card option and therefore no protection from BFL going under before they can ship makes the deal untenable.

Do not send bitcoins to me: 16b8s7pBJ9rUmsExNW25qD5VUqVqRPZuXu
100% solar powered bitcoin generation
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August 19, 2013, 01:19:54 AM
 #495

I am one of the still relatively rare happy BFL customers who received my order within only 9 months of ordering.  Watching the difficulty with which BFL developed the product and after experiencing the many levels of frustration that BFL unleashed, I am very reluctant to buy the new product.  Maybe I'm a fool and when people are mining in early 2014 with these devices I'll be green with jealousy, but in the meantime I can live without the stress of potentially losing my money.  Despite BFL already having experience with ASICs, I feel moving to a new process and new board design will make it unlikely the product will ship any time during 2013.

No credit card option and therefore no protection from BFL going under before they can ship makes the deal untenable.
Damn, one of the customers got away from the rings of fire we asked him to hop through.

Someone give me a tranquil dart to medicate him.

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August 19, 2013, 01:26:09 AM
 #496

BFL has an incredible number of advertisements, I've heard them talked about on various technical podcasts, they have a 'decent' site, the FPGA history and they are one of only a few companies shipping products (that I know of)...  don't get me wrong, I'm seriously pissed about my back ordered products and have all but written off my investment; my point is that if you get into asic mining after doing only a little research, it's easy to believe the BFL hype.

That said, the people who are coming in now and dropping $5k on a pre-order, without doing proper research must have money to burn!  I will be shocked if they make it another two years before getting sued for what little they will be worth.  I just hope I get SOMETHING from them before they fold.

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August 19, 2013, 01:38:28 AM
 #497

BFL has an incredible number of advertisements, I've heard them talked about on various technical podcasts, they have a 'decent' site, the FPGA history and they are one of only a few companies shipping products (that I know of)...  don't get me wrong, I'm seriously pissed about my back ordered products and have all but written off my investment; my point is that if you get into asic mining after doing only a little research, it's easy to believe the BFL hype.

That said, the people who are coming in now and dropping $5k on a pre-order, without doing proper research must have money to burn!  I will be shocked if they make it another two years before getting sued for what little they will be worth.  I just hope I get SOMETHING from them before they fold.
An evil person (Like PG) would hope that they receive lots of transfers, then fold. The only thing that changed was BFL releasing a generic video card image with their logo embedded along with a promise to ship at some point in the future.

The only thing actually happening (IMO), is that some genius at BFL figured out how to use a promise to whisk PayPal and CC's companies oversight away from it's customers money. Putting BFL firmly in control of where money flows.

Frankly, I don't see them escaping the lawsuits...and I don't see why anyone would wait until Sep 30th to even start.


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August 19, 2013, 01:58:31 AM
 #498

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

For every one of you, there's a growing number of people who have received product from bfl and seen that it works as promised at a price point that's lower than their competitors. Rhe good news for people ordering their new product is that, yes so many people have been dissuaded by their prior experience that they won't order, meaning new orders for this product won't face nearly as long of backlogs. Also amusing is when people cry out "don't order this from bfl, it'll never earn back its investment" then advocate another suppliers chips that cost even more per hash, meaning they're even more unlikely to order achieve break even.

I received my jalapeño order as promised and was very impressed by it. Ultimately sold it on eBay. But at the time I told myself I'd have no problem ordering from them again if I ever delved into mining. That still stands, if I were to order a miner, without doubt it would be from bfl. Asicminers offerings are far too expensive to be a winning proposition, Avalon seems to have the same shipping difficulties and most of the rest of the crew seems to be offering promises at this point, and nothing else. But I'll stay far away from mining. I see no incentive to participate in this arms race. It's doing nothing for us but forcing continual reinvestment just to stay at the same exact place. Really pointless. What I wish is that we (to include myself) were creative enough to start actual bitcoin business's, and earn revenue elsewhere in the economy. We aren't though. So we're all chasing after one mining and blowing an awful lot of money for nothing.

Lets come up with a coin that's for certain resistant to asics. Then there's no more of this gaming the system. You mine, you earn based on the number of CPUs you can devote to the activity. Maybe that'll force all of us to think of ways outside of mining to actually create an economy that outsiders want to participate in, rather than mining away pining for a mass adoption one day.


Overall, this thread is quite enlightening.

And kind of sad. We want the world to use our money, but we can't come up with any real uses save for trading it for dollars. And when people come and offer new mining equipment, and ask to only receive bitcoin for it, more and more people are crying foul, demanding they accept credit cards to prove they're not scamming. Seems ironic. How can we ask the world to want to use our currency when were not comfortable using it ourselves? True, it's because of a bad apple experience, but the worlds full of bad apples.

Many propose a break for what we have right now, but if anything, it seems to enforce people's needs and desires for things like contract law, reversibility of transactions and/or disputability of charges. It's not BFL. Im actually sypathetic to their plight. It's bitcoin itself that the pillars of the bitcoin economy are having issue with. Bfl's just a single company. And even if they never existed, someone else would be in theirs place, and people wanting to transact with them would be demanding these assurances.

Sorry, multi pronged post. Run on thoughts.
mechs
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August 19, 2013, 02:22:00 AM
 #499

This will never ship since they need the pre-orders for funding it and they will not get enough pre-orders due to their terrible track record.

For every one of you, there's a growing number of people who have received product from bfl and seen that it works as promised at a price point that's lower than their competitors. Rhe good news for people ordering their new product is that, yes so many people have been dissuaded by their prior experience that they won't order, meaning new orders for this product won't face nearly as long of backlogs. Also amusing is when people cry out "don't order this from bfl, it'll never earn back its investment" then advocate another suppliers chips that cost even more per hash, meaning they're even more unlikely to order achieve break even.

I received my jalapeño order as promised and was very impressed by it. Ultimately sold it on eBay. But at the time I told myself I'd have no problem ordering from them again if I ever delved into mining. That still stands, if I were to order a miner, without doubt it would be from bfl. Asicminers offerings are far too expensive to be a winning proposition, Avalon seems to have the same shipping difficulties and most of the rest of the crew seems to be offering promises at this point, and nothing else. But I'll stay far away from mining. I see no incentive to participate in this arms race. It's doing nothing for us but forcing continual reinvestment just to stay at the same exact place. Really pointless. What I wish is that we (to include myself) were creative enough to start actual bitcoin business's, and earn revenue elsewhere in the economy. We aren't though. So we're all chasing after one mining and blowing an awful lot of money for nothing.

Lets come up with a coin that's for certain resistant to asics. Then there's no more of this gaming the system. You mine, you earn based on the number of CPUs you can devote to the activity. Maybe that'll force all of us to think of ways outside of mining to actually create an economy that outsiders want to participate in, rather than mining away pining for a mass adoption one day.


Overall, this thread is quite enlightening.

And kind of sad. We want the world to use our money, but we can't come up with any real uses save for trading it for dollars. And when people come and offer new mining equipment, and ask to only receive bitcoin for it, more and more people are crying foul, demanding they accept credit cards to prove they're not scamming. Seems ironic. How can we ask the world to want to use our currency when were not comfortable using it ourselves? True, it's because of a bad apple experience, but the worlds full of bad apples.

Many propose a break for what we have right now, but if anything, it seems to enforce people's needs and desires for things like contract law, reversibility of transactions and/or disputability of charges. It's not BFL. Im actually sypathetic to their plight. It's bitcoin itself that the pillars of the bitcoin economy are having issue with. Bfl's just a single company. And even if they never existed, someone else would be in theirs place, and people wanting to transact with them would be demanding these assurances.

Sorry, multi pronged post. Run on thoughts.
Plenty of ASIC resistant, CPU dominated alt-coins out there.  Just look at primecoin.  But bitcoin has first mover advantage and the most committed dev team so nothing to be done about it at this point.
fcmatt
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August 19, 2013, 03:12:34 AM
 #500

I think diff is going way up cause i read that avalon is breaking up and you will have them racing to reproduce more chips and having them mint funny money. And they live in a low cost area to do this plus they all have resources/connections. Race to the bottom.

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