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Author Topic: MtGox is about to run out of bitcoins.  (Read 3766 times)
lordgerson
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August 18, 2013, 09:35:44 AM
 #21

If looking at the order depth is a reliable way to predict future price, wouldn't that sound like too easy a method to make money? Real world traders will get very rich easily if that works.

So far for BTC on gox, you could have got very rich on buying/selling BTC based on the direction in the change of market depth on gox. In the real world there are dark pools, so you cannot see the actual depth. Market depth on gox has been a very very good predictor of direction that BTC is about to go - or is going.  I almost made a bot to trade on that information (and other things) - still may if gox survives the next few weeks. 

Interestingly bitcoin is a very immature market. Most of the technical analysis stuff in textbooks no longer works in the real world (the market has become to efficient), however they do appear to still work on BTC (because of market immaturity).
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szikoh
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August 18, 2013, 09:43:31 AM
 #22

Take a look at volume in MTGOX. In usd it is something around 200 mil a month. The rest of exchanges are far away. Why MTGOX shall fail?
The only thing that is bad with them is the withdrawal time.
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August 18, 2013, 09:46:37 AM
 #23

I think we've heard it said before, but what reason would anyone not have cleared out of that exchange a long time ago.

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nolocimes
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August 18, 2013, 09:50:55 AM
 #24

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

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August 18, 2013, 10:04:18 AM
 #25

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.



On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.
lordgerson
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August 18, 2013, 10:37:35 AM
 #26

Take a look at volume in MTGOX. In usd it is something around 200 mil a month. The rest of exchanges are far away. Why MTGOX shall fail?
The only thing that is bad with them is the withdrawal time.

That mtgox volume you speak of is the sound of a large number of people exiting gox any way they can. Back in Jan of this year I did a withdralw from gox to my bank account in Aus via wire, it took under 24 hours. I have a similar size one at the moment - I sent it in late June, it still has not turned up. I would be very carefull if using gox to sell bitcoins.
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August 18, 2013, 10:53:15 AM
 #27

As Bitcoin continues to develop we will see people bringing out other exchanges and creating opportunity for people to trade at better rates and with potentially quicker turn around,
As that happens MtGox will ave to become better or fall behind as with all companies.

Ive never bought or sold through Gox I use them to keep an eye on the price however I use  a local exchange, local bit coins or people I meet at satoshi squares.
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August 18, 2013, 12:55:39 PM
 #28

I just use localbitcoins or blockchain.info - seems to work pretty well
pitkaran
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August 18, 2013, 07:32:38 PM
 #29

There´s a local bitcoin "market" here in Finland that uses MtGox and Bitstamp.

It takes about 1-2 days for me to get my trade done using them (that means money on my bank account in 2 days).
They do take a small portion, but it´s usually worth not having to wait.

I don´t want to sound like I am advertising, so I will not say the name here:)
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August 19, 2013, 05:38:27 AM
 #30

 Shocked

Gox ($119) now at 20% difference to Bitstampt ($98).
Coins in the sell queue on Gox = 50K.
Gox not looking good.
bitbully
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August 19, 2013, 09:20:35 AM
 #31

Did anybody here have his mtgox withdrawal limits changed to 0 btc and $0 per 24hours!!!?!?! My account is fully verified it used to be $1,000 or 100 btc just a few days ago.

I have thousands worth of btc and dollars in my account and was about to withdraw btc just now when now my limits are showing 0, as in i can withdraw NOTHING!! What is going on here?

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August 19, 2013, 11:28:51 AM
 #32

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.



On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.


I am sorry to break this news, but if Gox won't let you cancel your wire, that means that your funds were seized.
lordgerson
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August 19, 2013, 01:14:37 PM
 #33

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.



On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.


I am sorry to break this news, but if Gox won't let you cancel your wire, that means that your funds were seized.

I am in Aus, the wire was between japan and australia. dwaolla siezure was in the US, my funds never went there. I am verified on gox, thus if funds were seized (by Japan or Aus governments), someone would have told me... Last time I looked, Aus & Japan do not have secret courts and secret laws - thats just for the USA.   
lordgerson
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August 19, 2013, 01:25:03 PM
 #34

Did anybody here have his mtgox withdrawal limits changed to 0 btc and $0 per 24hours!!!?!?! My account is fully verified it used to be $1,000 or 100 btc just a few days ago.

I have thousands worth of btc and dollars in my account and was about to withdraw btc just now when now my limits are showing 0, as in i can withdraw NOTHING!! What is going on here?



I am pulling out 2 x 100 coins a day out of gox (maximum allowed as verified). Just did my transaction for the day. It all went smooth. No hickups. So gox is still allowing us to remove coins.

Thus problem appears specific to you. That said their website is full of bugs, specifically browser bugs, you may want to try a different browser, there website likes ie more then ff or chrome.
lordgerson
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August 19, 2013, 02:22:35 PM
 #35

really nice chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277554.msg2963755#msg2963755
lordgerson
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August 31, 2013, 05:00:02 AM
 #36

And now gox has 33K coins in the sell list to $250. Halved in about 1 week.... Here we go...
TheoryOfBitcoin
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August 31, 2013, 05:05:09 AM
 #37

Is there any evidence of this happening? Even through BitStamp is eating into gox's marketshare, I think if MtGox was insolvent there'd be significant repercussions for Bitcoin, and regulators trying to fiddle with it.
zoro
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August 31, 2013, 05:36:30 AM
 #38

for whatever problem you may have with mtgox you should first sent them a support ticket.
They have very quick response times and all my issues were resolved in the past.
About the withdrawals i am using only SEPA, lately i was impressed since i had my 1000e in less that 2 weeks!
thus, i guess they are doing the best they can to support their customers in general.
For sure Bitstamp is more quicker (SEPA times less than 3 days!) without asking me any documents to sent them
but i wonder for how long Smiley
and be aware to use 2FA in every exchange you have a lot of money Wink

"killer app" of BTC = MasterCoin https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=265488.0Mastercoin(A new protocol layer on top of Bitcoin)
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August 31, 2013, 05:55:08 AM
 #39

There are many posts about the arbitrage gap between the mtgox price and the price on other exchanges. This being caused by people trying to get there money outa gox by buying bitcoin and then selling the bitcoin on another exchange  (because gox customers have not been able wire transfers of fiat out of gox for some time).

I have been watching the market depth of the various bitcoin exchanges for some time. A few month back there were 200K+ coins in the sell queue at gox, this has slowly dropped to about 60K coins in the sell queue. On other exchanges (i.e. bitstamp) the sell queue is increasing.

I now think the miners (and anyone else with coins) is no longer sending them to gox to be sold. Thus gox is running out of coins (just like they have run outa fiat).

It looks to me to be coming to a head, I would guess that before the end of September (maybe sooner) gox will run out of coins. When this happens we would get an new all time high on gox of BTC. Basically BTC on MTGOX should go really high ($200+ per BTC). However every other exchange stays at about $100 BTC. All shit breaks loose at that point.

I notice a number of forex brokers are giving options/cfd's on the btc gox price. As long as the broker was sound, it may be time to take that bet.   

It could be that due to the rise in BTC there arent as many sellers believing that the price will continue to rise.
lordgerson
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August 31, 2013, 02:45:24 PM
 #40

for whatever problem you may have with mtgox you should first sent them a support ticket.
They have very quick response times and all my issues were resolved in the past.
About the withdrawals i am using only SEPA, lately i was impressed since i had my 1000e in less that 2 weeks!
thus, i guess they are doing the best they can to support their customers in general.
For sure Bitstamp is more quicker (SEPA times less than 3 days!) without asking me any documents to sent them
but i wonder for how long Smiley
and be aware to use 2FA in every exchange you have a lot of money Wink

Support ticket, lol, I put in a request for money in late June, many support tickets later gox has not yet sent me my money, lol support ticket, lol.
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