USB block erupters are now useless. $5 - $7 each.

[ranmn7]

I agree it will begin leveling off at some point.  Thinking that this point is the 80-90M difficulty is where I thought you were bonkers.

There are a LOT of ASICs preordered that more or less will show up and begin hashing.  The 200TH (formerly 100TH) project is coming online fully, a number of other mines are coming on, and I fully expect the difficulty will shoot past 1B, which is where the early Avalon miners stop being profitable.  People will continue ordering hardware well past the point it's worth running, IMO.

The other factor which affects profitability is the price of BTC, which at $140 today is 12 times the price it was in January. I personally started looking into all of this in May and saw BTC drop to $68 and then rebound. And its increasing steadily.

I've been reading other threads that are predicting the value of BTC will continue to increase at the 10x to 12x per year. I have a hard time believing that will continue much longer, but even a 5x to 6x increase next year will put the price of BTC at $700 to $800 each. If that occurs it will keep me mining even if I can only get a BTC every 3 months at my fastest mining rate.

But, that being said, I want to get as many BTC now as I can, and 10 to 20 block erupters will generate 1 to 2 BTC every month for the short term.

[1713902594]

1713902594

[Nemo1024]

Just buy BTC directly for your plan to have a higher level of predictability.

[tacotime]

I agree it will begin leveling off at some point.  Thinking that this point is the 80-90M difficulty is where I thought you were bonkers.

There are a LOT of ASICs preordered that more or less will show up and begin hashing.  The 200TH (formerly 100TH) project is coming online fully, a number of other mines are coming on, and I fully expect the difficulty will shoot past 1B, which is where the early Avalon miners stop being profitable.  People will continue ordering hardware well past the point it's worth running, IMO.

The increase in efficiency with ASICs is somewhere between 100-1000 fold.  I'd expect the difficulty to end up plateauing between 100 M and 5 B, since we were plateauing at 1 M - 5 M before with just GPUs.

At the current price and 5 B as the difficulty, my block erupters are only slightly unprofitable, while my BitFury device is still profitable.

[ijphlrnxewho]

Difficulty is now over 86+ millions

[jamesc760]

I'm not worried... (nervously checks the knc site for any news of shipment)

[vpereira]

what I dont get it is: for 3.0 BTC I can get 12, reaching ~ 4.0GB/s, It isn't cheap comparing with the blade (5.5, I can get 13 GB/s), but if I look on ebay, a 5GB/s BFL is being sold for 5-8 BTC.. so there is an advantage on the block erupter that people just ignore: It's here and you can buy 1,5,30,50! I have one blade and one BFL, 14 lancelots and 20 erupter.. the erupter are the one that give me less headache. They mine, they are not loud, they work fine with rapi, I dont need ventilator.. they just work! I do 31260 GH/s all of them still profitable (I'm doing 5.3 BTC/m)...

[timk225]

Every year for the past few years I hear radio ads that say the "experts" say gold is going to rise 30-50% and more and COULD go higher... then it doesn't.  Gold has gone down steadily, even though the "EXPERTS" give the same speech every year about how "Don't worry, this time for sure it'll go up!  Really!".

The idea of BTC rising above $300 is utter nonsense, it will not happen.  The only people even making such ridiculous claims are the ones who need it to go that high to make any sort of profit at all because they foolishly bought ASICS without stopping to think and research properly.  

You really have to listen to these radio ads and anyone speculating anything.  They are full of important buzz words like "could, might, can, history has shown, etc".

And it is also utter foolishness that the ASIC manufacturers are SELLING their ASICS, because if they thought they could make a better profit by mining with them, they'd be doing it!  Every time you send an ASIC manufacturer or reseller money for an ASIC, they laugh at you and collect money!  You may eventually get an ASIC, but it is too late now.

[Nemo1024]

You may eventually get an ASIC, but it is too late now.

Then what, pray, is mining @ 20GH/s at my place?

[jamesc760]

You may eventually get an ASIC, but it is too late now.

Then what, pray, is mining @ 20GH/s at my place?

Picture or it never happened.

[westkybitcoins]

Every year for the past few years I hear radio ads that say the "experts" say gold is going to rise 30-50% and more and COULD go higher... then it doesn't.  Gold has gone down steadily, even though the "EXPERTS" give the same speech every year about how "Don't worry, this time for sure it'll go up!  Really!".

The idea of BTC rising above $300 is utter nonsense, it will not happen.  The only people even making such ridiculous claims are the ones who need it to go that high to make any sort of profit at all because they foolishly bought ASICS without stopping to think and research properly.  

You really have to listen to these radio ads and anyone speculating anything.  They are full of important buzz words like "could, might, can, history has shown, etc".

And it is also utter foolishness that the ASIC manufacturers are SELLING their ASICS, because if they thought they could make a better profit by mining with them, they'd be doing it!  Every time you send an ASIC manufacturer or reseller money for an ASIC, they laugh at you and collect money!  You may eventually get an ASIC, but it is too late now.

Your time frame is WAY too short.

I've been in gold only a little over a decade, and let me tell you, the jumps have been PHENOMENAL. Sure, the last few years have actually seen a dip, but long term, it IS only going to go up. Trying to treat it like a get-rich-quick pump-and-dump stock will only burn you. Yes, there are companies selling gold. But what I see *everywhere* I drive, and in the newspaper, to the masses, is new businesses whose sole business it is to BUY gold from you. That's what the masses are doing... selling their gold, their "extra jewelry." Governments openly admit to manipulating the price, do you really think they try to manipulate it up? (If you do, you might want to revisit what happened when Germany recently demanded their gold from the U.S. Fed.)

Same thing with Bitcoin. It is a revolutionary new technology, unlike anything mankind has ever had. It's unique properties, and the fact that people will eventually want what Bitcoin offers, are what will have the bitcoin price crashing through $300/btc in due time. $100 is a steal, yes, even after the meteoric rise from <$1. And this is despite the fact that, while awareness is growing, it's STILL only a fraction of a fraction of people that actually own bitcoins. When bitcoins come to be owned by just the next wave of early adopters, the price will be high enough that we'll look back and include $100 as part of the "glory days" of cheap bitcoins.

EDIT: Spelling

[Nemo1024]

You may eventually get an ASIC, but it is too late now.

Then what, pray, is mining @ 20GH/s at my place?

Picture or it never happened.

As you wish:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253749.msg2991365#msg2991365

[mootinator]

I'm still willing to pay $20 each to grief people who are still waiting for BFL preorders by jacking up the difficulty slightly.

If I were in government I'd definitely mandate "a USB block erupter in every home". [/troll]

[Nemo1024]

Actually, such policy would be the best for network decentralisation.

[ScaryHash]

I'm still willing to pay $20 each to grief people who are still waiting for BFL preorders by jacking up the difficulty slightly.

If I were in government I'd definitely mandate "a USB block erupter in every home". [/troll]

So, if I have a BFL order that has not shipped yet, and I keep buying block erupters, does that mean I'm griefing myself?

 

[timk225]

westkybitcoins -- I know what is happening with gold.  The US Government (and possibly in other countries too) is melting the bars down, creating cores made of tungsten, and casting a thin layer of gold back on them.

Surely you have google searched the tungsten filled gold bars, haven't you?

For those who don't know, tungsten weighs almost exactly the same as gold, and is being used to create gold bars that don't have a lot of gold in them.

Gold coins are probably ok, as are small gold bars, but the big ones.... I'd be very suspicious.

[bcp19]

I'm still willing to pay $20 each to grief people who are still waiting for BFL preorders by jacking up the difficulty slightly.

If I were in government I'd definitely mandate "a USB block erupter in every home". [/troll]

ROFLMAO!!!!! You're dripping drops into a nearly full bucket and patting yourself on the back cause you're 'greifing' the preorder people.  We're almost at 1 PETAHASH of network speed and you think the paltry 1TH or so is causing grief?  Man, I really needed that laugh, thanks.

[westkybitcoins]

westkybitcoins -- I know what is happening with gold.  The US Government (and possibly in other countries too) is melting the bars down, creating cores made of tungsten, and casting a thin layer of gold back on them.

Surely you have google searched the tungsten filled gold bars, haven't you?

For those who don't know, tungsten weighs almost exactly the same as gold, and is being used to create gold bars that don't have a lot of gold in them.

Gold coins are probably ok, as are small gold bars, but the big ones.... I'd be very suspicious.

Yup. Tungsten-filled gold is the new big thing.

But it's been worse than that.

http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/tons-of-gold-imports-turn-to-dust-on-arrival-2010-08-15-1.279082

I agree with you, I wouldn't touch anything alleged to be gold that's bigger than a one-ounce piece at this point (and I would test those pretty carefully.)

[Nemo1024]

I wonder what happened to all the real gold that the late lawful ruler of Libya was hoarding and that mysteriously vanished after the NATO invasion?

[EskimoBob]

I wonder what happened to all the real gold that the late lawful ruler of Libya was hoarding and that mysteriously vanished after the NATO invasion?

EU countries demanded to see their gold, stored in US. US had to get it form somewhere

[AndrewWilliams]

Hard to take Tom Truong, the starter of this thread seriously, when he posts trash like this on his website:



Fact: Evil Jews Regime used fake news to program Americans to become stupid.
The illuminati (also known as the Bilderberg Group) commanded a branch of Satan's army known as the Al-Qaeda to launch attack on America. Read more


http://civilwarinusa.blogspot.cz/