Bitcoin Forum
April 21, 2018, 06:27:52 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.0  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Some points about the current uptrend overlooked by most  (Read 1132 times)
McGyver
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14
Merit: 0


View Profile
August 31, 2013, 09:17:54 AM
 #1

I believe the following factors relevant to the recent price movement got underestimated in most analysis:


1. Buying mining hardware served as a kind of "back door" for the investors to the Bitcoin world until quite recently.

This door is now at least half-closed due to the recent price:diffuculty ratio combined with anticipated further hashing power increases (2PH/s expected from CoinTerra in December, 4PH/s from Bitmine before April 2014, just to name the biggest). Those interested in getting larger quantities of Bitcoins can no longer sneak in by buying mining hardware without the risk of having substatially negative short-term return on their investment. Many may see OTC transactions with a premium as a more sensible alternative and I believe that recent price spikes on exchanges were liquidations of such large OTC buy-ins.


2. Any spikes on Mt.Gox got dismissed as not being genuine and attributed only to investors wanting to escape from Gox.

I get a strong feeling that the price actually "wanted" to go up for some time already, but was constantly suppressed by traders believing in the above. Their misguided resistance could only last for so long (or they would have to have indefinitely deep pockets...) and it seems that this volcano which has been "boiling" underneath for quite some time already is now just about to explode!


3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier!

Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR:

ATH being so close to 200 EUR
The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR
May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR

It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based!


4. If the price is only a result of blind market forces then why did it "dance around" such a round figure as 100 USD for so long?

Of course because of human psychology attributting something magical to "double digits", "triple digits", etc. (thinking like: "Ouch, we're back to double digits, so cheap! I must buy!"). This way we got kind of sticky to 100 USD (first on Mt.Gox, later on the other exchanges) and only recently we set ourselves free!

Are we gonna repeat the same exercise with prices denominated in EUR and having 100 EUR as the new strong support level? We shall see it soon...

Mathematics is the Queen of all Sciences.

My favorite blog:  *Link Removed*  (not BTC related)
1524292072
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1524292072

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1524292072
Reply with quote  #2

1524292072
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
crazy_rabbit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000


RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME


View Profile
August 31, 2013, 10:34:17 AM
 #2

Not to mention the recognized in Germany where in Berlin you can actually live on it.

more or less retired.
Impaler
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 250



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 10:40:21 AM
 #3

I think the key factors are


1)  All mining is ASIC now and these first generation machines are still very profitable, thus the miners don't need to sell any significant numbers of coins to cover costs.

2)  Gox is obviously useless for selling BTC for USD even if you needed too.

3)  Between the above two factors we have a complete cessation of newly minted coins flowing into exchanges.

4)  People still have long-term deflationary expectations and old coins are not being lured out of hoards in any significant number, particularly when a lot of people are still in negative territory and want to see a new all time high to sell.

5)  Some whale for some reason is buying up the few coins on Gox (At it's peak this year Gox has had at most 1% of the total BTC supply on it and its now at .3%) either fear or insolvency or a genuine desire to have coins, or an elaborate market manipulation.

6)  The combined lack of incoming coins with a rapid drawing off of thouse that remained the coin depth on Gox is collapsing and this is driving the price up hugely.

FRC:  18mAGEto3xZzfKNJPwsDVA5c2Fk5Za3nbs  http://www.freicoin.org  IRC:  Freenode #freicoin
marcovaldo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 10:59:22 AM
 #4

3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier!

Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR:

ATH being so close to 200 EUR
The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR
May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR

It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based!


Where?
The only EU exchange that I know is bitstamp. And current bitstamp price is 95,09 euros / btc.

BITEX
            ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
                  ███     ███     ███
                    ███     ███     ███
                      ███     ███     ███
                        ███     ███     ███
                          ███     ███     ███
                            ███     ███     ███
                              ███     ███     ███
                            ███     ███     ███
                          ███     ███     ███
                        ███     ███     ███
                      ███     ███     ███
                    ███     ███     ███
                  ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███

The First Locally-Embedded, Yet Global, Crypto-Bank
TELEGRAM    FACEBOOK   TWITTER    YOUTUBE    LINE

                  ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███
          ███     ███     ███
        ███     ███     ███
      ███     ███     ███
    ███     ███     ███
  ███     ███     ███
███     ███     ███
  ███     ███     ███
    ███     ███     ███
      ███     ███     ███
        ███     ███     ███
          ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
               ███     ███     ███
                 ███     ███     ███

WHITEPAPER ANN JOIN WHITELIST NOW!
PRE-ICO STARTS 23RD APRIL 12:00 GMT
marcovaldo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 11:04:15 AM
 #5

bitcoin.de -> 99.79 EUR/BTC

Last time I checked, 99.79 was below 100.

BITEX
            ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
                  ███     ███     ███
                    ███     ███     ███
                      ███     ███     ███
                        ███     ███     ███
                          ███     ███     ███
                            ███     ███     ███
                              ███     ███     ███
                            ███     ███     ███
                          ███     ███     ███
                        ███     ███     ███
                      ███     ███     ███
                    ███     ███     ███
                  ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███

The First Locally-Embedded, Yet Global, Crypto-Bank
TELEGRAM    FACEBOOK   TWITTER    YOUTUBE    LINE

                  ███     ███     ███
                ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███
          ███     ███     ███
        ███     ███     ███
      ███     ███     ███
    ███     ███     ███
  ███     ███     ███
███     ███     ███
  ███     ███     ███
    ███     ███     ███
      ███     ███     ███
        ███     ███     ███
          ███     ███     ███
            ███     ███     ███
              ███     ███     ███
               ███     ███     ███
                 ███     ███     ███

WHITEPAPER ANN JOIN WHITELIST NOW!
PRE-ICO STARTS 23RD APRIL 12:00 GMT
damnek
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 617
Merit: 500



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 11:18:13 AM
 #6

I believe that the market has also started to price in emerging more "professional" exchanges such as Kraken and Coinsetter and above all the Winkelvoss ETF. Another thing that caught my attention is the eBay Deals video on bitcoin. I think a lot is brewing right now below the surface.
McGyver
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14
Merit: 0


View Profile
August 31, 2013, 11:25:04 AM
 #7

3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier!

Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR:

ATH being so close to 200 EUR
The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR
May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR

It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based!


Where?
The only EU exchange that I know is bitstamp. And current bitstamp price is 95,09 euros / btc.

I was referring to Mt.Gox price.

Yeah, I know, you're gonna tell me that Gox isn't relevant anymore, but the truth is that everyone is still watching Gox prices very closely as a kind of referrence, even if not actually making transactions there. Mt.Gox still has the highest liquidity and market depth.



bitcoin.de -> 99.79 EUR/BTC

Having different people consider different exchanges as their "true" price indicator has one very interesting side effect:

Any strong resistance level (either a previous high or any round figure in a major currency) gets split into more less strong: one on Mt.Gox and some other on other exchanges. This makes it easier to break any such barrier as less momentum is required.

Mathematics is the Queen of all Sciences.

My favorite blog:  *Link Removed*  (not BTC related)
zeta1
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 172
Merit: 100



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 11:55:20 AM
 #8

Yep €100 line has been broken! Anyway a large investor sees a good future in bitcoin!
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2492
Merit: 1006



View Profile
August 31, 2013, 12:13:47 PM
 #9

Not to mention the recognized in Germany where in Berlin you can actually live on it.

you can also cross the Alpes by foot with no food.

Joke aside: Berlin is live and kicking. Their satoshi sqaure meeting is booming and in the news. The utterances of financial regulators in germany are being over-interpreted to the upside, in my mind... but such are journalists and it has effect nevertheless.

EDIT: btw: good points, McGyver. Especially the first one.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!