PREDICTION: A SHA256 ALT coin will become as big a success as Litecoin (1-2Yrs)

[CoinHoarder]

Miners will shift their older obsolete ASICs over to PPcoin eventually, as this coin cannot be merge-mined.

I predicted all this months ago in a couple of posts. PPcoin difficulty has increased 4-5 fold since already. Sooner than I thought.

I'm glad someone shares the same opinion as I do.

I really can't believe most people don't get that this is going to happen. It seems so obvious to me.

Cheers

[1713992664]

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[CoinHoarder]

My point is that if a coin is profitable to mine with gen1 ASIC then gen2 ASIC can merge mine it for no additional cost thus making it unprofitable for gen1. Not like Litecoin that can't be mined with SHA256 ASIC.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your post.

I don't think I explained myself thoroughly in the OP.

When gen1 ASICs become unprofitable, people will be looking for a way to make them profitable again. There will be a huge incentive for someone that wants to create a truly innovative SHA-256 coin. I will lay out the basic business plan here:

1. Buy unprofitable ASICs for pennies on the dollar.
2. Design and develop a ground breaking SHA-256 coin. Better than all ALTs existing and better than Bitcoin itself.
3. Hash power will be split between Bitcoin and this new better alternative by speculators and people that believe in this new coin being better than Bitcoin. The split in hash power will allow the overlay to make gen1 ASICs profitable because hashing power is split in between Bitcoin and this new alternative coin.
...

Also, it doesn't even have to be a new SHA256 ALT coin. Perhaps a lot of development is done to an existing one to where it is more valuable to the community. Huge market shifts (UP!) in the value of SHA256 ALT coins could dramatically change the profitability of SHA256 mining.

01BTC10's point still stands.

If a first gen ASIC is a money loser when mining BTC, it'll be a money loser on any alt-coin as well. Why? Because if it's NOT a big money loser, then everyone with 2nd Gen ASIC's will pile into that network as well, and push the difficulty up enormously, rendering your Gen-1 chip just as unprofitable to mine with.

No his point doesn't still stand.  

People are having a hard time realizing this ITT, but if the more economical ASICs switch over to the more profitable ALT chain, then BTC's difficulty will come down. Allowing both to be mined simultaneously, splitting ASIC hash power which results in increased profitability for both chains.

[anderl]

merge mining has destroyed any change for a SHA256 coin to be competitive with BTC.  They have all just become slaves to the BTC chain.  Sorry Scrypt or another algorithm are the only change to be competitive.

[Zimbabwecoin]

I think when the mining fees get cut in half it would be a great time to launch a new coin and promote it to Bitcoin miners. But, I am not sure how big it can get.

Not all mining will be profitable. At that point people stuck with gear will be even more compelled to sell off the gear to others. But, I am not sure they would think to do something other than mine Bitcoin. Most people I know who buy old bitcoin gear try to make money from bitcoin with it and then realize they can't.

Of course when powerful new mining equipment is coming into service miners are going to test other things as well. It is only natural. Especially when you start losing money when mining something. So if someone can get enough traction where there is a community built around it with a coin AND it runs SHA256 then people will mine it.  But, if the community is just miners, then that can't easily happen.

[CoinHoarder]

merge mining has destroyed any change for a SHA256 coin to be competitive with BTC.  They have all just become slaves to the BTC chain.  Sorry Scrypt or another algorithm are the only change to be competitive.

It would have to be a non merge mined coin for this to become true. If it were a merge mined Sha256 coin then that would negate my entire argument here, because hash power would not be split on multiple chains.

I refuse to believe that gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners are just going to throw their hands in the air and give up when their ASICs become unprofitable. Is everyone just going to send their Bitcoin ASIC paperweight to the dump? Most of them didn't even make a profit in Bitcoins and are at a loss, these people will be looking to extend the life of their machine and hopefully achieve break even or make a slight profit. The equipment can't be used for anything other than spitting out sha256 hashes, so there is no other alternative.. you either sell it (for pennies), throw it away, or my prediction comes true and gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners rally around a sha256 ALT coin and lift it up among the heavyweights that are Bitcoin and Litecoin.

[Notanon]

Yeah, the price of Peercoin will shoot up a bit once the V0.4 client is released in a few weeks time, IMO.

[anderl]

merge mining has destroyed any change for a SHA256 coin to be competitive with BTC.  They have all just become slaves to the BTC chain.  Sorry Scrypt or another algorithm are the only change to be competitive.

I refuse to believe that gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners are just going to throw their hands in the air and give up when their ASICs become unprofitable.

actually they are, people are giving up on them.  1st Gen erupters are going for about $5 to 7 each.  Some owners have just chucked them because they are not producing the earnings they anticipated and others are still using them to gain a fraction of a BTC in hopes of BTC going to $10k just to recoupt he cost of the investments.

People can't even sell them because it cost more to ship them to buyers!!!!!  So your hopes that there will be a rally around a new SHA256 coin are misguided.

There are currently 4 active nonmergmineable SHA256 coins and none of them have come even close to a fraction of a percent of BTC. 

So expecting a new SHA256 revival is a waste of time. 

[str4wm4n]

Mazacoin

[digitalindustry]

Just my 2 QRK .

I think you are correct , also obviously a currency that is multi hash and generally limited to PC will have much popularity,  and much more run on network effect as it is much less centralized.  

The chance for another SHA256 currency is in the masses of ASICs that exist and are available.

This means that Scrypt could be the loser long term.

[CoinHoarder]

Just my 2 QRK .

I think you are correct , also obviously a currency that is multi hash and generally limited to PC will have much popularity,  and much more run on network effect as it is much less centralized.  

The chance for another SHA256 currency is in the masses of ASICs that exist and are available.

This means that Scrypt could be the loser long term.

If investing in mining equipment, I think it would be dumb to put all your eggs in one basket (only Scrypt farm or only SHA256 farm). Diversification is always good when investing in anything.

I'm glad someone else can see that this is a possibility.

merge mining has destroyed any change for a SHA256 coin to be competitive with BTC.  They have all just become slaves to the BTC chain.  Sorry Scrypt or another algorithm are the only change to be competitive.

I refuse to believe that gen1 Bitcoin ASIC owners are just going to throw their hands in the air and give up when their ASICs become unprofitable.

actually they are, people are giving up on them.  1st Gen erupters are going for about $5 to 7 each.  Some owners have just chucked them because they are not producing the earnings they anticipated and others are still using them to gain a fraction of a BTC in hopes of BTC going to $10k just to recoupt he cost of the investments.

People can't even sell them because it cost more to ship them to buyers!!!!!  So your hopes that there will be a rally around a new SHA256 coin are misguided.

Weak hands will always exist in every cryptocoin ecosystem. Furthermore, not everyone can see the big picture. You need to open your mind to see that there is a very real possibility that this could happen. The people selling ASICs for pennies now sound like the people selling me GPUs for pennies right before the Bitcoin reward halving. I believe just like those people, they will look back and regret their decision.

There are currently 4 active nonmergmineable SHA256 coins and none of them have come even close to a fraction of a percent of BTC.  

So expecting a new SHA256 revival is a waste of time.  

Bitcoin ASICs didn't exist until this time last year. You have not given enough time for the prediction to become correct. I said if it's going to happen, it will happen in the next 1-2 years. Although I suppose my OP was in August, so I'm down to .5 - 1.5 years.

[amdfxman1701]

So what Sha256 coin do ya'll predict would be a good investment? Peer coin, zeta coin, etc.?