[2018-01-18] Bitcoin Is Back Above $11,500, But Bulls Not Out of the Woods Yet

[cybersofts]

Bitcoin Is Back Above $11,500, But Bulls Not Out of the Woods Yet



Despite a sharp price recovery to over $11,500 today, bitcoin's bulls are not out of the woods yet, the price charts suggest.

Coindesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) has climbed 25.9 percent from the eight-week low of $9,199.59 hit yesterday at 15:44 UTC. As of writing, bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $11,590 levels.

The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has appreciated by 8 percent in the last 24 hours, according to data source OnChainFX.

However, the investor community isn't convinced by the move, and comments on social media show that some believe the overnight recovery is nothing more than a "dead cat bounce."

The price chart analysis indicates that only a close (as per UTC) above $12,500 (prices as per Coinbase) would add credence to rebound from sub-100-day moving average (MA) levels and confirm that a short-term bottom is in place.


Bitcoin chart: Bottom in place?



    * As seen on the chart above (prices as per Coinbase), bitcoin has consistently left higher lows at/below the 100-day MA line.
    * On the previous two occasions, the relative strength index (RSI) showed oversold conditions.
    * As of today, the RSI is staying within the oversold territory (above 30.00). Bitcoin's drop below the 100-day MA yesterday was short-lived.

The situation looks similar to that seen in mid/late March 2017, when BTC prices flirted with 100-day MA for more than a week before moving higher. Back then, the RSI was just shy of oversold conditions

Still, it appears to be too early to call a bottom.

Yesterday's long-tailed candle (big difference between intraday low and UTC close) does show strong dip demand. However, only a positive close today would validate the sharp recovery from $9,005 (previous day's low).


Bitcoin chart: Bulls need a close above $12,500




The above chart (prices as per Coinbase) shows:

    * A long-tailed candle indicating dip demand near the ascending trendline (drawn from July low and September low) support.
    * Lower highs and lower lows as indicated by the descending trendline and a drop below $12,500 on Tuesday.
    * 5-day and 10-day MAs carry a strong bearish bias (sloping downwards).
    * The RSI remains below 50.00 (in the bearish territory).

Except for the first point, all other factors favor a drop to $8,690–$8,052 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 rally).


View

    * The recovery from $9,005 has neutralized the immediate bearish outlook.
    * The daily chart suggests that a historical pattern (higher lows along the 100-day MA) could be repeated.
    * However, only a close (as per UTC) above $12,500 (Dec. 30 low) would confirm a bottom is in place at $9,005 (previous day's low) and open the doors for a rally to $15,800 (descending trendline hurdle) and beyond.
    * The sell-off would resume if BTC fails to hold above the 100-day MA over the next 48 hours. In such a scenario, prices could test $8,690–$8,052 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 rally).


Source: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-is-back-above-11500-but-bulls-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/

[Slow death]

this was a big fall, my friend came in my house worried wondering if it was the end of bitcoin because he was afraid that bitcoin would go to 0$. to see my friend's worried, I put myself in the situation of the people who are worried... those people who are worried about the fall of the price will do not stay calm if the price falls even more, these people who are worried will sell their bitcoin

The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has appreciated by 8 percent in the last 24 hours, according to data source OnChainFX.

had altcoins that dropped 50%, wow this market is a very dangerous market and people should only invest money that they can afford to lose

[darkangel11]

this was a big fall, my friend came in my house worried wondering if it was the end of bitcoin because he was afraid that bitcoin would go to 0$. to see my friend's worried, I put myself in the situation of the people who are worried... those people who are worried about the fall of the price will do not stay calm if the price falls even more, these people who are worried will sell their bitcoin

Those people are usually the sheep that add to the dip too late and then get caught unable to go back in close to the point when they exited. Usually those people lose the most.
If those who bought at certain price exited only to protect their investment nobody would be able to make money from shorts. The sole reason people make money is people are selling late and then buying back late because they're contemplating the sell, afraid they might lose more if they go in again. You have to realize it's all in your head. You're your own worst enemy.

I believe the analysis is on point, but we won't go down much from here. There's a decent support forming at $9.2k and even greater at 8k, so we'll either go down to get a double bottom and up from there or the dip will be much more shallow (10.5k) and we'll go up from there. I see 8k as the least probable outcome. I guess we'll see in a few hours.

[J. Cooper]

this was a big fall, my friend came in my house worried wondering if it was the end of bitcoin because he was afraid that bitcoin would go to 0$. to see my friend's worried, I put myself in the situation of the people who are worried... those people who are worried about the fall of the price will do not stay calm if the price falls even more, these people who are worried will sell their bitcoin

Those people are usually the sheep that add to the dip too late and then get caught unable to go back in close to the point when they exited. Usually those people lose the most.
If those who bought at certain price exited only to protect their investment nobody would be able to make money from shorts. The sole reason people make money is people are selling late and then buying back late because they're contemplating the sell, afraid they might lose more if they go in again. You have to realize it's all in your head. You're your own worst enemy.

That's a very accurate analysis. I also love the way how people naturally are attracted to negativity. 9/10 times when I tell someone I'm invested in bitcoin they instantly ask: "Isn't the market going down right now?". They tend to completely ignore the insane bull run of the past year, yet they always zoom in on the latest dip. That kind of pisses me off.

[Qartersa]

It is common. You know, people who are too skeptical about investing in Bitcoin or should I say those who have no interest at all in Bitcoin will always try to utter issues that will lead you to disbelief. It does not mean, though, that they want you to stop investing in Bitcoin. It is just their way of making themselves feel better thinking that they made a very good decision to not invest in it. Simply put, they are ignoring the good and highlighting the bad to comfort themselves in the fact that they made the best choice possible.

[darkangel11]

this was a big fall, my friend came in my house worried wondering if it was the end of bitcoin because he was afraid that bitcoin would go to 0$. to see my friend's worried, I put myself in the situation of the people who are worried... those people who are worried about the fall of the price will do not stay calm if the price falls even more, these people who are worried will sell their bitcoin

Those people are usually the sheep that add to the dip too late and then get caught unable to go back in close to the point when they exited. Usually those people lose the most.
If those who bought at certain price exited only to protect their investment nobody would be able to make money from shorts. The sole reason people make money is people are selling late and then buying back late because they're contemplating the sell, afraid they might lose more if they go in again. You have to realize it's all in your head. You're your own worst enemy.

That's a very accurate analysis. I also love the way how people naturally are attracted to negativity. 9/10 times when I tell someone I'm invested in bitcoin they instantly ask: "Isn't the market going down right now?". They tend to completely ignore the insane bull run of the past year, yet they always zoom in on the latest dip. That kind of pisses me off.

You're right the pessimism is strong. People that I've talked with, including my parents, when told how much my cryptocurrencies are worth were always replaying with: why don't you sell and withdraw the money? -Why should I? I don't need money right now. -but what if it goes down to 0? They are always on the negative, always ready to take scraps and run instead of looking into the future, wanting more.