Dear community,here's some writeup i'm doing now, hoping it might help someone. If my english is a bit erroneous, please be aware that i'm not a native english-speaking person (i'm from Germany).
I wrote this text carefully using my experience. It's in no way meant to be a guarantee to give you back your losses quickly, nor to make you rich or anything. But if you do not miss the point to quit playing, it can actually be a help if you're patient. Take your time, read this posting and make a choice if it fits your needs.
If it is a bit useful for you and it helps you recover from your losses, then maybe you can thank me by spending a low percentage of your winnings to my address: <removed my address for proving vlees' comment wrong
>
(Was this address generated on purpose? Who knows
)
So here's the scenario:You played some good hands on <insert_random_word_here>dice.com, did well for a while (being invincible due to using martingale or some modification of it, of course :>) and suddenly screwed up. Totally. You're tremendously nervous and don't know what to do.
Now, there's a decision to make: either you accept your loss as a lesson for life, add *dice.com to your block list on your firewall and never waste a thought about gambling again (wise decision) or you go and try to win it back (risky one).
This guide is for those who already chose to try and win back the lost Bitcoin and it should give a set of rules which arose from my experience and calculations.
My background: let's say, it's the usual one: i lost some 5 BTC, made out a strategy, won it almost back, thought i could make a little profit, lost it again and - unbelievable - re-won it again and just a moment before i intended to stop gambling, martingale hit me directly in the face for an 12.5 BTC loss because i became sloppy using my strategy (stupid me) and now i'm at some -11.25 on just-dice.com. And i'm sick of gambling. So here we go:
- 1. Don't take this - ever, ever, ever!!! - as an advice for gambling your BTC back! This is intended for those who will do it anyway and i will give my best to help minimizing your losses.
- 2. Losing BTC is a quick and easy process. Winning it back indeed is a freakin slow, pain-in-the-assy, risky and time- and nerve-consuming process which always brings the risk of losing more.
- 3. Following 2., you will find a starting value which is low enough to increase your ability to multiple your bet often enough to not get an enormously high betting value in case you have multiple losses in a row.
- 4. If you're back on the BTC amount you wanted to win (or close enough up to it, so it's acceptable), STOP! Right away! Don't make the same dumb mistakes i did and lose again!
- 5. Don't use some 50/50 chance with a ~2x multiplier, as your chances for multiple losses in a row are way higher than accepting a lower multiplier.
So this last point does need some explanation, i guess. I did play using a 75% chance to win, giving a payout of 1.32x when winning. Now i will compare the chances of losing to the standard 50% winning chance. If someone finds an error in my thoughts: please don't hesitate and give me feedback, so i can improve this writeup.
lir = loss in a row
col = Chance of loss in this current round. Number attached means the percentage (chance to win).
ucs = Units currently set (in this round). How high a unit is depends on what you're actually betting.
lir col-50 ucs-50 col-75 ucs-75
#1 1/2 1 1/4 1
#2 1/4 2 1/16 4
#3 1/8 4 1/64 16
#4 1/16 8 1/256 64
#5 1/32 16 1/1024 256
#6 1/64 32 1/4096 1024
#7 1/128 64 1/16384 4096
(Sorry, had to put this table into a code block, as the table here absolutely won't work.)
Now what does this table tell us?
- a) Using 50/50, you still lose 5 in a row every 32nd game, statistically. 75% only has this chance every 1024th game.
- b) Double-doubling your bet increases the value of your bets dramatically, but the need to to so is way lower.
- c) The most important: as ~4000 rounds are quickly played, you should expect to get 6 losses in a row from time to time. So place your initial bet as low as 6 quadrupolations (does this word exist?) won't hurt you. This makes the process of winning your money back a real slow pain.
- d) Keep in mind that a seventh loss can always follow a sixth loss in a row.
If you needed to increase your bets multiple times to compensate previous losses, you need to decrease after each win the same way you increased before. An example:
Round 1: bet 1 unit. Loss.
Round 2: bet 4 units. Loss.
Round 3: bet 16 units. Loss.
Round 4: bet 64 units. Win.
Round 5: bet 16 units. Win.
Round 6: bet 4 units. Win.
Round 7: bet 1 unit. Loss.
Round 8: bet 4 units... and so on.
I was experimenting with double-doubling after a loss and single-halving after a win (i thought of it like "run up the stairs, climb down slow" or something like that), which served me quite well for a time. But as it takes longer until you're back to your base betting amount, it also increases the risk of further losses making your bet unit amount explode, literally...
Using the 75% chance of winning does make the process of winning slower, but the chances of an enormous loss are way lower. In fact, it does require you to quadruple (again: does this word really exist?) your bet after each loss, but the chances to actually need to do so are lower than using the standard 50%. This gives you a higher chance of multiple lower wins, as compared to a lower chance of higher winnings with the same possibility to screw it up.
Also, as long as you're winning, you turn the house's edge a bit into your edge, as losing 1 unit in the first round gives you a 4 x 0.32 = 1.28 back in the second round. Note that mostly not your e.g. 6-fold-quadrupolable (omg, another offspring of this word) initial bets generate your winnings, but the winnings you earn when you lost multiple times in a row. This stolen-edge-return-value of course increases with each loss following a previous one, but keep in mind that your bet also increases and the time WILL come where you get 6 or 7 losses in a row. I had this killing me the last time, so please be careful. Always.
Again: this guide is in no way meant to be perfect. Maybe i missed something you find worth mentioning. If that's the case, please drop me a message in this thread, i'd be happy to think about your comments and integrate any improvements you might find. I'm always open to discussion and critics (as long as it's rational and constructive).
So what's more to say? I guess, have a nice weekend (and some better weather as we do have here in Germany). And, also, don't lose Bitcoin on dice games, so you won't even get into the need of trying to recover them.
