Do any of these ASIC's actually make a ROI?

[01BTC10]

The biggest problem in guessing whether there will be ROI is all the bullshit and all the delays.

A long long time ago it was clear that GPUs would not make ROI because BFL was going to ship ASICs in "two weeks".

Somehow nonetheless people still keep managing to make money with GPUs.

So mostly I guess it depends on whether you actually believe that any or all of the vapourware that has been announced is going to ship.

For a long long time people who ignored all the speculation about supposedly to be shipped in the future hardware have done rather well going ahead and buying stuff that would not have made ROI had all the vapourware actually been shipped "on time".

Any of these ASICS can probably make ROI if none of the others end up actually shipping, or if they get delayed long enough.

Even block eruptors started looking a lot better once Avalon turned out not to be shipping chips than they had looked back when people imagined Avalon was going to ship "on time".

-MarkM-

I think the problem is that ASIC are way overpriced compared to GPU. This combined with the April hype make most (if not all) ASIC a bad investment.

Really?  a 700MH 7950 at $300 is $430/GH.   A bitfury asic today at the expensive rate of $108 is $40/GH.  In october, when they're closer to $25, they'll be under $10/GH.

I mean the margin on GPU was less for ATI than what ASIC manufacturers are taking right now. I'm not saying buying GPU is a better investment than buying ASIC but it was when there was no ASIC.

Today, manufacturers are squeezing maximum profit out of miners. This leave the miners vulnerable for when a vendor will choose to lower his selling price since their margin is so high and they need to compete.

How could Avalon sold their batch #1-2 at $1500 when batch #3 was like $10K+? Someone is making a killing there and it's not the miners. Even BFL raised their price and lowered their Gh/s on their "products" after the April hype.

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[markm]

The 7950 can mine litecoins and other coins. So even when ASICs did finally get shipped, GPUs by then had a work-around in place to extend their profitable life.

So again just because marketers claim one thing will be obsolete in two weeks does not always mean they are right.

By the time the two weeks rolls around, especially if it turns out to be a lot longer than two weeks, things can change.

Some private farm could be about to turn on massive numbers of already-built 28nm chips, we just don't know and cannot know.

But historically the FUD-trolls claiming in "two weeks" this that or the other old tech would no longer make profit have been wrong.

We wasted a year not buying mining gear because in "two weeks" BFL's superior product would arrive.

We wasted how much of what thinking Avalon would ship chips in 8 to 10 weeks.

-MarkM-

[k9quaint]

The 7950 can mine litecoins and other coins. So even when ASICs did finally get shipped, GPUs by then had a work-around in place to extend their profitable life.

So again just because marketers claim one thing will be obsolete in two weeks does not always mean they are right.

By the time the two weeks rolls around, especially if it turns out to be a lot longer than two weeks, things can change.

Some private farm could be about to turn on massive numbers of already-built 28nm chips, we just don't know and cannot know.

But historically the FUD-trolls claiming in "two weeks" this that or the other old tech would no longer make profit have been wrong.

We wasted a year not buying mining gear because in "two weeks" BFL's superior product would arrive.

We wasted how much of what thinking Avalon would ship chips in 8 to 10 weeks.

-MarkM-

When BFL began the "two more weeks" campaign back in fall of 2012, there were zero ASICs in the market. It wasn't until early 2013 that Avalon and ASICMiner began to deliver. Since that time, we have seen BFL actually deliver some product and Bitfury roll out a lot of chips to their customers. KNC and CoinTerra also look likely to deliver some product.

It is therefore very unlikely that the hash rate will stagnate like it did in the fall of 2012. In fact, BFL could stop delivering completely and it probably wouldn't dent the growth rate.

[Bicknellski]

We wont see 20%+ rise in difficulty forever. It has to slow down and stop sometimes. I predict because of preorders, we will see difficulty drop a bit next year, because some with expensive electricity realise how much they pay more to mine a coin

So if you have cheap or free electricity you can make +ROI

Difficulty is not going down.  If someone has expensive electricity their rig is worth more selling it used to someone with cheap electricity then going idle.  Unlike with GPU where rigs could leave the system by people selling GPU on ebay to non miners, ASIC rigs only have one purpose.  So an Avalon isn't going dark until it is no longer break even profitable for even the miners with the cheapest of cheap electricity that is massively higher hashrate.

Pig Farms and Miners Unite.

Free electricity and shit might be the right way to go.