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asdlolciterquit
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January 27, 2018, 11:59:53 AM
 #1

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!
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January 27, 2018, 01:28:46 PM
 #2

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!
Many write that before the closing of futures the price of bitcoin falls. But I do not believe that these events can be linked for the reason that the volume of trading in futures is so small that it can not affect the price of bitcoin in any way.

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January 27, 2018, 02:34:05 PM
 #3

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!
Many write that before the closing of futures the price of bitcoin falls. But I do not believe that these events can be linked for the reason that the volume of trading in futures is so small that it can not affect the price of bitcoin in any way.

thanks for you answers.
Can you tell me how much is the volume of future's trading? And where can i find info about currenct price?

Thanks again
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January 27, 2018, 02:39:21 PM
 #4

I believe the whales are done with shorting Bitcoin. Now lets wait for the massive pump. Bear Whales and Bull Whales are competing with each other. Soon bulls will prevail.

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!


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January 27, 2018, 03:52:55 PM
Merited by EcuaMobi (1), asdlolciterquit (1)
 #5

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

I think the logic is quite simply this, person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, if the price is higher than 15k he profits, if it's lower he loses out. Either way he will want try to manipulate the price upwards. Similarly someone agreeing to sell at a price in the future will want to manipulate the price downwards. I think then the assumption (this is where I disagree and so believe there's little effect) is that there will be more whales who sold futures and so are wanting to push the price down in advance of their future expiring. Once it expires they'll no longer have a need to manipulate the market and the downward pressure is removed.

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January 27, 2018, 03:59:28 PM
 #6

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

It depends on which futures you mean. The CBOE and CME futures are cash settled in dollars, so don't really affect the underlying market at all (though some people have persuaded themselves that it does).

The futures on BitMex are real in that you have to deliver bitcoins if you short the market -they do affect the underlying market, because people need to trade in the underlying market to settle their BitMex futures.

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January 27, 2018, 04:46:28 PM
 #7

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

I think the logic is quite simply this, person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, if the price is higher than 15k he profits, if it's lower he loses out. Either way he will want try to manipulate the price upwards. Similarly someone agreeing to sell at a price in the future will want to manipulate the price downwards. I think then the assumption (this is where I disagree and so believe there's little effect) is that there will be more whales who sold futures and so are wanting to push the price down in advance of their future expiring. Once it expires they'll no longer have a need to manipulate the market and the downward pressure is removed.

well, now is more clear.
i have an other question: future is a contract between two parts, isn't it?

so, in person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, person B agree to sell BTC at $15k in one months time.

Person A want that the price in one months will be higher thatn 15k, person B the opposite.

If the number of person A and B is the same, why the price move so much?
asdlolciterquit
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January 27, 2018, 04:52:20 PM
 #8

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

It depends on which futures you mean. The CBOE and CME futures are cash settled in dollars, so don't really affect the underlying market at all (though some people have persuaded themselves that it does).

The futures on BitMex are real in that you have to deliver bitcoins if you short the market -they do affect the underlying market, because people need to trade in the underlying market to settle their BitMex futures.

i don't understand how does it works futures on BitMex. For example, i agrees to buy BTC at say $15k  in one months time. Someone have to pay me in btc in which way? for example if the price is higher than 15k i will receive less than 1btc?
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January 27, 2018, 05:59:10 PM
 #9

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

I think the logic is quite simply this, person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, if the price is higher than 15k he profits, if it's lower he loses out. Either way he will want try to manipulate the price upwards. Similarly someone agreeing to sell at a price in the future will want to manipulate the price downwards. I think then the assumption (this is where I disagree and so believe there's little effect) is that there will be more whales who sold futures and so are wanting to push the price down in advance of their future expiring. Once it expires they'll no longer have a need to manipulate the market and the downward pressure is removed.

well, now is more clear.
i have an other question: future is a contract between two parts, isn't it?

so, in person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, person B agree to sell BTC at $15k in one months time.

Person A want that the price in one months will be higher thatn 15k, person B the opposite.

If the number of person A and B is the same, why the price move so much?

You're exactly right, and this is where I'm then skeptical as to if there's any real influence on the price. For every person who may want to manipulate the price downwards, someone should want to manipulate it upwards. Therefore I think the overall influence on price is negligible.

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January 27, 2018, 06:10:22 PM
 #10

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

I think the logic is quite simply this, person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, if the price is higher than 15k he profits, if it's lower he loses out. Either way he will want try to manipulate the price upwards. Similarly someone agreeing to sell at a price in the future will want to manipulate the price downwards. I think then the assumption (this is where I disagree and so believe there's little effect) is that there will be more whales who sold futures and so are wanting to push the price down in advance of their future expiring. Once it expires they'll no longer have a need to manipulate the market and the downward pressure is removed.

well, now is more clear.
i have an other question: future is a contract between two parts, isn't it?

so, in person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, person B agree to sell BTC at $15k in one months time.

Person A want that the price in one months will be higher thatn 15k, person B the opposite.

If the number of person A and B is the same, why the price move so much?

You're exactly right, and this is where I'm then skeptical as to if there's any real influence on the price. For every person who may want to manipulate the price downwards, someone should want to manipulate it upwards. Therefore I think the overall influence on price is negligible.
Does this mean you forget the rest of the Bitcoin users? Person A and B is just some of the other users which is they can't influence that much in the fluctuation of the price. It has so many factors why the fluctuation was so unstable because a lot of users are buying and selling, then the price correction, and the forks these are just some of the factors that can cause the volatility of Bitcoin to be unstable.



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January 28, 2018, 10:38:14 AM
 #11

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!

I think the logic is quite simply this, person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, if the price is higher than 15k he profits, if it's lower he loses out. Either way he will want try to manipulate the price upwards. Similarly someone agreeing to sell at a price in the future will want to manipulate the price downwards. I think then the assumption (this is where I disagree and so believe there's little effect) is that there will be more whales who sold futures and so are wanting to push the price down in advance of their future expiring. Once it expires they'll no longer have a need to manipulate the market and the downward pressure is removed.

well, now is more clear.
i have an other question: future is a contract between two parts, isn't it?

so, in person A agrees to buy BTC at say $15k in one months time, person B agree to sell BTC at $15k in one months time.

Person A want that the price in one months will be higher thatn 15k, person B the opposite.

If the number of person A and B is the same, why the price move so much?

You're exactly right, and this is where I'm then skeptical as to if there's any real influence on the price. For every person who may want to manipulate the price downwards, someone should want to manipulate it upwards. Therefore I think the overall influence on price is negligible.

well, maybe we are right! price right now is not moving up so fast like other people have said after the expires of the futures.

Anyways, i'm looking at the current price of the furures here --> http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

what does Last price mean? That someone have to buy or sell btc in 1 month at that price?
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January 28, 2018, 10:47:18 AM
 #12

There will always be that influence on price because this platform is  a kind of a predictive way in pricing Bitcoin. Though i would say that for now the influence is not that enormous because the volume of business is not yet massive. I am sure we might connect the coming in of the futures with the stationary nature of Bitcoin right now but this is just actually one of the many factors affecting the present state of Bitcoin. The one I am looking at is the overall sentiment affecting the whole market...there seems to be that gloomy feel.


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Beerwizzard
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January 28, 2018, 11:10:20 AM
Last edit: January 28, 2018, 02:11:12 PM by Beerwizzard
Merited by asdlolciterquit (1), JC btc (1)
 #13

i don't understand how does it works futures on BitMex. For example, i agrees to buy BTC at say $15k  in one months time. Someone have to pay me in btc in which way? for example if the price is higher than 15k i will receive less than 1btc?
This is how I understand it.
So as we know futures contract is a contract for buying an asset (BTC in our case) for predetermined price. The buyer is buying a contract for buying BTC at a price of 15k in one month (he already payed for it right now) and a seller is selling this contract (at this particular moment they are trading the agreement). Buyer can resell this contract or just drop it if the price will be much lower. In this case the seller will get a profit from selling the contract. But the seller can't refuse to sell the asset on the aggreed price. That may sound rough so I'll try to bring an example.
John and Andy are making a futures contract. John pays Andy 1k USD for the right to buy his BTC a month later for the price of 15k USD. So here are 2 possible endings:
1. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 14k USD. This price is unaccaptable for John and he is giving up. He is disappointed because he lost 1k on buying this contract.
2. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 20k USD. Andy have to sell BTC for 15k instead of the market price. John is happy because he made 4k on that deal.
This explanation is still pretty rough and it doesn't count many other circumstanses (or I'm simply mistaking something) and everything may vary depending on the asset, exchange etc. But this is how the general futures contracts should work.
asdlolciterquit
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January 30, 2018, 07:41:36 PM
 #14

i don't understand how does it works futures on BitMex. For example, i agrees to buy BTC at say $15k  in one months time. Someone have to pay me in btc in which way? for example if the price is higher than 15k i will receive less than 1btc?
This is how I understand it.
So as we know futures contract is a contract for buying an asset (BTC in our case) for predetermined price. The buyer is buying a contract for buying BTC at a price of 15k in one month (he already payed for it right now) and a seller is selling this contract (at this particular moment they are trading the agreement). Buyer can resell this contract or just drop it if the price will be much lower. In this case the seller will get a profit from selling the contract. But the seller can't refuse to sell the asset on the aggreed price. That may sound rough so I'll try to bring an example.
John and Andy are making a futures contract. John pays Andy 1k USD for the right to buy his BTC a month later for the price of 15k USD. So here are 2 possible endings:
1. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 14k USD. This price is unaccaptable for John and he is giving up. He is disappointed because he lost 1k on buying this contract.
2. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 20k USD. Andy have to sell BTC for 15k instead of the market price. John is happy because he made 4k on that deal.
This explanation is still pretty rough and it doesn't count many other circumstanses (or I'm simply mistaking something) and everything may vary depending on the asset, exchange etc. But this is how the general futures contracts should work.

First of all, i'm sorry to reply in so much late Sad

Anyways, amazing post! 1 merit for you.
I don't understand one thing, on point 1).
At the end of the month John can avoid to pay 15k to andy for buy his btc? How is it possible?
Beerwizzard
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January 31, 2018, 01:18:04 AM
 #15

Because thats how it works Smiley He already payed just for signing the contract and he have a right not to buy BTC while the seller don't have a right to refuse (he is either getting a profit from just selling a contract or taking loses if the price in the end of the month is above the predetermined price / the buyer is either taking loses from buying an unneeded contract or taking profin from buying BTC below the market price). In another words John is buying Andy's obligation to sell an asset after determined amount of time. After he already bought this obligation John is deciding if it is gona be used or not (btw he can also resell the futures).
And once again. It is a general concept, every exchange and asset have its own specific.
coinscircle
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January 31, 2018, 03:58:02 AM
 #16

Hi everyone,
i've read a lot about the influence that btc's futures can have on btc's price.
Can someone be so kind to help me to understand how? Maybe with a numeric example?

Thank you in advance!
Many write that before the closing of futures the price of bitcoin falls. But I do not believe that these events can be linked for the reason that the volume of trading in futures is so small that it can not affect the price of bitcoin in any way.

thanks for you answers.
Can you tell me how much is the volume of future's trading? And where can i find info about currenct price?

Thanks again
According to the information I now know that Tether coin is experiencing extremely bad news from the US government, leading to the current bitcoin prices are falling extremely strong. From yesterday until the time the price of a bitcoin fell by nearly 10% to $ 10,000 per bitcoin. I think this is the right time for you to follow and buy bitcoin.
cryptocrusher
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January 31, 2018, 04:57:40 PM
 #17

i don't understand how does it works futures on BitMex. For example, i agrees to buy BTC at say $15k  in one months time. Someone have to pay me in btc in which way? for example if the price is higher than 15k i will receive less than 1btc?
This is how I understand it.
So as we know futures contract is a contract for buying an asset (BTC in our case) for predetermined price. The buyer is buying a contract for buying BTC at a price of 15k in one month (he already payed for it right now) and a seller is selling this contract (at this particular moment they are trading the agreement). Buyer can resell this contract or just drop it if the price will be much lower. In this case the seller will get a profit from selling the contract. But the seller can't refuse to sell the asset on the aggreed price. That may sound rough so I'll try to bring an example.
John and Andy are making a futures contract. John pays Andy 1k USD for the right to buy his BTC a month later for the price of 15k USD. So here are 2 possible endings:
1. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 14k USD. This price is unaccaptable for John and he is giving up. He is disappointed because he lost 1k on buying this contract.
2. In the end of the month Bitcoin worth 20k USD. Andy have to sell BTC for 15k instead of the market price. John is happy because he made 4k on that deal.
This explanation is still pretty rough and it doesn't count many other circumstanses (or I'm simply mistaking something) and everything may vary depending on the asset, exchange etc. But this is how the general futures contracts should work.

First of all, i'm sorry to reply in so much late Sad

Anyways, amazing post! 1 merit for you.
I don't understand one thing, on point 1).
At the end of the month John can avoid to pay 15k to andy for buy his btc? How is it possible?

It would simply mean there is an option in the contract, he pays for the privilege of having such an option and then has the choice to either take it or leave it when the contract date is reached, either way that 1k has been spent and he will not receive it back. Some contracts will have this option and some will not.

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asdlolciterquit
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February 01, 2018, 09:32:09 PM
 #18

@cryptocrusher  and @Beerwizzard  thanks again for your help!

I'm wondering, if some choose to not buy btc at the price that was decided before, btc price will not be influenced in any way...correct?
richardsNY
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February 01, 2018, 09:41:13 PM
 #19

I'm wondering, if some choose to not buy btc at the price that was decided before, btc price will not be influenced in any way...correct?

Nothing happens to Bitcoin's price since the future markets just tie their products to the rate of a certain exchange. Everything that happens on CBOE for example, will not reflect on our traditional Bitcoin exchanges. It's vice versa -- everything that happens on the Bitcoin exchanges the future markets are tethering their rates from, will reflect on there. In other words, it's one way traffic.
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February 01, 2018, 09:45:54 PM
 #20

Hello everyone! I can not guess what the future of bitcoin is. I hope you have some advice or send a message to me find out. thanks.
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