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Author Topic: Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices  (Read 5419 times)
DeathAndTaxes
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August 28, 2013, 07:17:27 PM
Last edit: August 28, 2013, 09:06:32 PM by DeathAndTaxes
 #1

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

Originally posted in monarch thread to highlight that good specs mean nothing if while you are still waiting someone a year later undercuts it by 86%.  I guess someone felt it was off topic.  It isn't like the monarch is a new product with good specs and who's ROI is heavily dependent on if it can be delivered on spec and on time by the company who still hasn't delivered rigs that people paid 3,000 BTC a year ago that now have a street value of 420 BTC.  Obviously this wasn't relevant at all.
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bcp19
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August 28, 2013, 07:30:19 PM
 #2

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
20?  Maximum speed of 12.829GHash/s with overclocking and proper cooling.  20 * 13 = 260.  Are you thinking of Avalon?

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I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 28, 2013, 07:32:36 PM
 #3

I supposed if BTC value increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun Smiley
I have an interesting question for you:

We know the price of BTC was ~$6.50-7.00 on July 1, 2012 and that a 1.5TH mini-rig was selling for $29,899.  Let's call the BTC price at $6.50, which would be ~4600 BTC.  Your choices are to either Buy a mini-rig and wait for it to ship a year later or store your 4600 BTC until June 2013 when you can buy 2300 USB block erupters.  We know now the mini-rig order would ship on Aug 5th and the 2300 Block Erupters would be in hand within a week.  If these were your only choices, which do you feel is the better value?


The first hind sight logic i've ever seen from bcp19... oh wait....
It's a very simple question, can't you answer it?  We already know all the answers, so which do you feel was the better value?

How BCP feels when he comments on ANY thread.



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August 28, 2013, 07:34:28 PM
 #4


How PEONMINER(me) feels when he comments on ANY thread.



I guess you are correct. Cheesy

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August 28, 2013, 07:37:21 PM
 #5

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600

So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption!  Sounds like a good deal to me!  Not.

Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each?  If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13?  

FUD much?

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 28, 2013, 07:42:02 PM
 #6


How PEONMINER(me) feels when he comments on ANY thread.



I guess you are correct. Cheesy

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August 28, 2013, 07:45:58 PM
 #7

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600

So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption!  Sounds like a good deal to me!  Not.

Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each?  If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13?  

FUD much?

DeathAndTaxes' assessment is accurate. You have to look at the bitcoin price because it accounts for the opportunity cost correctly. Failure to do so leads to forgone profit.

Put another way: Not spending 2580 BTC (3000BTC-420BTC) for a minirig equivalent in August 2012 would have earned you ~ $330k.

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August 28, 2013, 07:47:09 PM
 #8


How PEONMINER(me) feels when he comments on ANY thread.



I guess you are correct. Cheesy

You mean:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvej3gTXAzE

?

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August 28, 2013, 07:52:19 PM
 #9

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut. 

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600

So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption!  Sounds like a good deal to me!  Not.

Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each?  If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13? 

FUD much?

DeathAndTaxes' assessment is accurate. You have to look at the bitcoin price because it accounts for the opportunity cost correctly. Failure to do so leads to forgone profit.

Put another way: Not spending 2580 BTC (3000BTC-420BTC) for a minirig equivalent in August 2012 would have earned you ~ $330k.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies. 

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why? 

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 28, 2013, 07:54:46 PM
 #10

It's truly sad to see members with higher reputations and post count bunting poor Inaba on logic and math.

For some strange reason, my tears won't come. I suspect there is shock involved.

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August 28, 2013, 07:56:51 PM
 #11

Wow.  Over reaction much, it was a typo. 120 block eruptors.  It has been fixed.
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August 28, 2013, 08:04:05 PM
 #12

It be better if there were a section or subforum where standards are important.

Where information is unbiased and to the point this will further degrade into a shouting match and the original information will be lost again but I guess that is what is supposed to happen... no can get the information because with the right information the consumer can make an informed choice.

Maybe it is time we held everyone to a set of standards so that the community can be served in these forums as opposed to be shouted at with a stream of confusion.

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August 28, 2013, 08:05:00 PM
 #13

Isn't it a common truism that those that are obsessed with insulting and belittling others are just reflecting how insecure they are? It's like constantly confirming to themselves and other observers that they're the smart and virtuous person, by over-exaggerating other people's flaws by way of contrast.

Just saying  Grin

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August 28, 2013, 08:06:48 PM
 #14

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

This information is valuable to a buyer. Death and Taxes can you start a new thread to point this out... self moderated and keep the trolls off it.

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August 28, 2013, 08:09:10 PM
 #15

How do we make a thread self moderated? Where are the options for that?

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DeathAndTaxes
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August 28, 2013, 08:10:18 PM
 #16

This information is valuable to a buyer. Death and Taxes can you start a new thread to point this out... self moderated and keep the trolls off it.

No.  That sounds like a full time job. Smiley  However someone can quote it if they like.
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August 28, 2013, 08:13:54 PM
 #17

I follow most of your posts particularly the analyses you have done and they do allow a buyer to gauge what is actually important.  Wish we had subform for this information... as well as place where the makers of hardware and buyers of hardware could communicate more effectively. Obvious shouting people down does not help it just causes more confusion. It is really time people stop doing that.

Thanks for the valuable info D&T.

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August 28, 2013, 08:16:50 PM
 #18

.....

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies. 

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why? 

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.


I'm not a BFL hater, but I recognize that many of us buy your equipment (in addition to buy bitcoin obviously) precisely because we expected this fast revaluation and your initial delivery date was in an acceptable margin to take advantage of it. You have failed and of course that every dollar we spend on your equipment instead of buying bitcoin represents a great loss.

Sorry for my bad english Wink
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August 28, 2013, 08:17:47 PM
 #19

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?
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August 28, 2013, 08:21:30 PM
 #20

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

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August 28, 2013, 08:26:42 PM
 #21

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...
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August 28, 2013, 08:30:34 PM
 #22


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
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August 28, 2013, 08:32:09 PM
 #23

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

The incredible irony in that statement, is that some people did invest all the money they could, in buying BFL hardware.

You would agree that if people had perfect foresight, they would not have purchased your products, right? In fact, as I pointed out,  in the summer of 2012 they would have been better off buying GPUs

Just a reminder - I never bought anything from BFL, instead I bought a B2 Avalon unit, and that unit has (as I mentioned) already paid for itself in bitcoins. Not only that, one of the main reasons I bought it in February is because I thought you wouldn't ship for a long time, long enough for me to get my unit and start hashing away before you flooded the network.

I was right.

It's just incredible. You come on here and call everyone failures and losers with zero foresight.  The reason they failed, and lost is because they trusted you.

On the other hand, I predicted you would continue to fail to deliver long past February, and I was right.

It's totally incredible. You say that the smart people are the ones who made money, because they predicted the future.  Well, I predicted you would fail. And I made a lot of money because you did.

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August 28, 2013, 08:32:38 PM
 #24


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

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August 28, 2013, 08:36:02 PM
 #25

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies. 

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why? 

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

The incredible irony in that statement, is that some people did invest all the money they could, in buying BFL hardware.

You would agree that if people had perfect foresight, they would not have purchased your products, right? In fact, as I pointed out,  in the summer of 2012 they would have been better off buying GPUs

Just a reminder - I never bought anything from BFL, instead I bought a B2 Avalon unit, and that unit has (as I mentioned) already paid for itself in bitcoins. Not only that, one of the main reasons I bought it in February is because I thought you wouldn't ship for a long time, long enough for me to get my unit and start hashing away before you flooded the network.

I was right.

It's just incredible. You come on here and call everyone failures and losers with zero foresight.  The reason they failed, and lost is because they trusted you.

On the other hand, I predicted you would continue to fail to deliver long past February, and I was right.

It's totally incredible. You say that the smart people are the ones who made money, because they predicted the future.  Well, I predicted you would fail. And I made a lot of money because you did.

Huh, I can't seem to find my quote where I called everyone failures and losers with zero foresight, can you please point that out?  You wouldn't be making things up, would you?

We're talking about 100% accurate predictions, not speculation.  Get it straight and then come back and maybe we can have an adult conversation.  But until then, when you start off with your entire premise being unrelated to the topic your quoting, we might as well not even have the conversation.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 28, 2013, 08:37:18 PM
 #26

Nope, he is telling the truth about that.

Simply use the search bar at the top right. Go ahead, search.

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August 28, 2013, 08:39:39 PM
 #27


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

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August 28, 2013, 08:39:47 PM
 #28

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.
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August 28, 2013, 08:42:22 PM
 #29

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.
Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.

The analogy here is there is no water to drink (0 real information about the units that do not even exist except as a picture). Try BFL forums for more information right?

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August 28, 2013, 08:43:08 PM
 #30

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

The one problem I have with this analysis is that is it is completely from hindsight. No one had even heard of ASICMiner back in August 2012 to make a choice. He wasn't even a blip on the radar. This kind of math is somewhat useful but not helpful.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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August 28, 2013, 08:44:46 PM
 #31

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

The funny thing is they said the same things about the 65nm product. Honest Abe, the SC line will be blah blah blah. We know how that turned out.

Buy & Hold
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August 28, 2013, 08:50:08 PM
 #32

Oh woe woe is me:  I bought batch 1 avalon and paid about 110 BTC for only 60GH/s... if only I'd waited and bought asicminer blades! I could have saved 80%! ... and lost a lot of coin.

Pricing this out in Bitcoin is misguided. In a counterfactual world the BTC exchange rate could have tanked over the same time.  If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that. Smiley
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August 28, 2013, 09:01:02 PM
 #33

If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that. Smiley

I'd like to slam BFL for terrible communications. Everyday I have to go to these pages:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/activity.php

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=8198;sa=showPosts


And filter through endless tirades of misinformation and babble/drivel. Rarely to discover any facts which give me any indication of when and if I'll ever receive my Single or, for that matter, recoup any of the money I invested nearly a year ago.

Contrast this with:

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Where I receive clear, un-opinionated facts and information which reassure me and help me prepare for delivery of my Jupiter. Given what I know now, the only emotion that I have is regret for listening to all the bullish hype and over-promising which was the signature of BFL's presence on this forum in September and October last year.

Josh, I mean this nicely, but can you please consider stopping picking fights with everyone on this forum who makes accusations and concentrate on providing clear information to your customers, like me.

Cheers,
Donovan.

"How are you justifying these as fair use?  They are clearly and unequivocally a copyright violation."
"I really want to know how you justify that under the fair use doctrine?  It does not conform to a single point of fair use."
Josh whining about people reusing his studio portrait shot on this forum. Can you copyright a copyright complaint? All Paypal refunds are final.
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August 28, 2013, 09:12:02 PM
 #34


You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.

The analogy here is there is no water to drink (0 real information about the units that do not even exist except as a picture). Try BFL forums for more information right?

Well, I see we've been split from the Monarch discussion thread, lol.

And in response to your point... You don't think it's reasonble for me to respond in a thread on this forum specifically about the Monarch and have a discussion about the Monarch?  That is utterly ridiculous!
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August 28, 2013, 09:12:33 PM
Last edit: August 28, 2013, 09:28:32 PM by DeathAndTaxes
 #35

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

The one problem I have with this analysis is that is it is completely from hindsight. No one had even heard of ASICMiner back in August 2012 to make a choice. He wasn't even a blip on the radar. This kind of math is somewhat useful but not helpful.

The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC.  It just highlight how much BFL's failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company.  Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC.  They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue.  It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late.  

You may ask why is this relevant?  Well if BFL wasn't offering any new products it would be moot.  Maybe just a sad irony.  However today BFL IS offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time.  If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows maybe months before they actually deliver someone will offer an equivalent product with immediate delivery for 6 BTC.
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August 28, 2013, 09:19:57 PM
 #36

Right on the money Death...

Nice thread by the way.


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August 28, 2013, 09:25:45 PM
 #37

I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read. Smiley

Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000?  When its invested in BFL.  No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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August 28, 2013, 09:26:48 PM
 #38

cross-post because the posts were moved:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3029775#msg3029775

In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...
the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  
No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.
I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283286.msg3029211#msg3029211

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 28, 2013, 09:29:56 PM
 #39

The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC.  It just highlight how much BFL failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company.  Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC.  They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue.  It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late. 

You may ask why is this relevant?  Well because today BFL is offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time.  If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows months before they deliver someone else will offer a competing product for 6 BTC.

You do know there are some people hashing away with Mini-rigs right now?  I don't think they are complaining too much.  They're too busy trying to stash their piles bitcoins somewhere safe, lol.

And yes, I do know there are many others still waiting.  But sometimes the risk is worth the reward.  Other times... not so much.  But you certainly won't gain anything if you don't take some risk.  And you can minimize risk by hedging (splitting orders between different ASIC vendors and/or buying BTC) and doing research.
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August 28, 2013, 09:31:21 PM
 #40

I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read. Smiley

Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000?  When its invested in BFL.  No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.


This is pretty much a new twist on the ole Bait and Switch with the Monarch and really I can't see why there is no reaction from the forums owner on this... it is fraud and really you shouldn't be taking any advertising dollars from people doing that.

Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").

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August 28, 2013, 09:48:35 PM
 #41

I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read. Smiley

Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000?  When its invested in BFL.  No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.


This is pretty much a new twist on the ole Bait and Switch with the Monarch and really I can't see why there is no reaction from the forums owner on this... it is fraud and really you shouldn't be taking any advertising dollars from people doing that.

Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").

In a retail store, when the advertised item is unavailable, you are given a rain-check.  And you come back at a later date and get that item at the advertised price.  And if that item is discontinued or otherwise unavailable, you are substituted a replacement item of similar value.

I'm failing to see how this is much different than what BFL is doing.  Other than the fact that the original item and the substitute item might be out-of-stock for several months, lol.
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August 28, 2013, 10:33:46 PM
 #42

I hate BFL as much as everyone else, but seriously guys it's getting out of control:

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August 28, 2013, 10:43:29 PM
 #43

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600

So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption!  Sounds like a good deal to me!  Not.

Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each?  If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13?  

FUD much?


cry cry ....your time is coming to an end Cheesy

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August 28, 2013, 11:10:48 PM
 #44

Josh is seeing ghosts because he knows he is going to jail at some point. Better start beefing up bro.

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August 28, 2013, 11:16:16 PM
 #45

cross-post because the posts were moved:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3029775#msg3029775

In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...
the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  
No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.
I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283286.msg3029211#msg3029211

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:

1.  If the bitcoin price had tanked and bitcoins were worth $2 per coin in August, September, October, November, December etc... do you really think there would be as much hashrate on the network right now as there is?  Of course not, so you'd be earning more from your purchase.  So your argument that you've somehow "lost out" on funds because of the delay to the tune of thousands upon thousands is false.
2. Ok, you say, but there is SOME loss because of the delay!  Yes, you're right, for some people there is indeed some loss of potential revenue.  However, what most people, including you apparently, seem to assume when you make your calculations is that you would be the only individual purchasing a unit and everyone else would still be mining on GPUs.  This is a false assumption.  There are many, many people who purchased before you and there are many, many people who have purchased after you (though these are less impactful in the short term, but very impactful in the long term), because of this, the difficulty would ramp up before you get your unit.  The actual loss you may or may not have incurred is far, far less than you want others to believe.  If BFL had shipped in November all of the units we intended to ship, the difficulty would be far higher in January than it is right now, thus your income would actually be less.  Under certain circumstances, depending on what you were mining with in mid 2012 and assuming you kept mining at that point, you actually may have made more money than if we had shipped in November.  None of this makes it right that we missed our target ship date, but the simple fact of the matter is your losses are not measured in the thousands you think they are.
3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

Personally, I'd rather have spend $30,000 in USD to purchase something than $54,000 in BTC, just because it's priced in BTC.  Maybe that's just me, but I find the value of $24,000 USD to be signifigant, whether it's valued in USD or BTC.  Maybe you don't, which is why you think comparing 3000 BTC in August 2012 to 420 BTC in August 2013 to be a logical comparison.  However, I'd wager than the vast, vast majority of people on this forum would rather have someone give them $54,000 in USD than $30,000 in BTC.

None of this even considers the fact that the power consumption of the 120 blades would be 3x that of the minirig.  That the blades are sold out.  That the space required for the blades would be significantly more and we won't discuss the aesthetic aspects because I don't think many people care about that as long as it mines, but there are some people that do care.

So here's the real tally:

Minirig: $30,000, uses less power, takes up less space
Blades: $54,000, uses 3x more power, takes up lots more space

Neither can be purchased off the shelf (as it were) at the moment, so there's your comparison.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 28, 2013, 11:31:03 PM
 #46

If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that. Smiley

I'd like to slam BFL for terrible communications. Everyday I have to go to these pages:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/activity.php

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=8198;sa=showPosts


And filter through endless tirades of misinformation and babble/drivel. Rarely to discover any facts which give me any indication of when and if I'll ever receive my Single or, for that matter, recoup any of the money I invested nearly a year ago.

Contrast this with:

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Where I receive clear, un-opinionated facts and information which reassure me and help me prepare for delivery of my Jupiter. Given what I know now, the only emotion that I have is regret for listening to all the bullish hype and over-promising which was the signature of BFL's presence on this forum in September and October last year.

Josh, I mean this nicely, but can you please consider stopping picking fights with everyone on this forum who makes accusations and concentrate on providing clear information to your customers, like me.

Cheers,
Donovan.

Looks like so far KNC has delivered nothing so they would not be a great example.  Avalon makes BFL look quite transparent.   ASICminer is the most straight forward so far doing pretty much what they promise but also the only one of the three competing directly with their customers putting their customers at a huge disadvantage. 


Hmmmmmm
Choices... Choices... Choices...

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August 28, 2013, 11:59:22 PM
 #47

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 29, 2013, 12:07:38 AM
 #48

You know, I gave credit to Josh at least he would express his view point vs Yifu pretty much just gave you the finger every time  Cheesy

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August 29, 2013, 12:11:30 AM
 #49

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
01BTC10
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August 29, 2013, 12:12:44 AM
 #50

This is strange because I bought my Avalon unit with BTC and my goal was to get more BTC and I was successful. But I'm probably only a stupid miner.
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August 29, 2013, 12:14:26 AM
Last edit: August 29, 2013, 12:48:28 AM by YipYip
 #51

cross-post because the posts were moved:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3029775#msg3029775

In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...
the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  
No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.
I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283286.msg3029211#msg3029211

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:

1.  If the bitcoin price had tanked and bitcoins were worth $2 per coin in August, September, October, November, December etc... do you really think there would be as much hashrate on the network right now as there is?  Of course not, so you'd be earning more from your purchase.  So your argument that you've somehow "lost out" on funds because of the delay to the tune of thousands upon thousands is false.
2. Ok, you say, but there is SOME loss because of the delay!  Yes, you're right, for some people there is indeed some loss of potential revenue.  However, what most people, including you apparently, seem to assume when you make your calculations is that you would be the only individual purchasing a unit and everyone else would still be mining on GPUs.  This is a false assumption.  There are many, many people who purchased before you and there are many, many people who have purchased after you (though these are less impactful in the short term, but very impactful in the long term), because of this, the difficulty would ramp up before you get your unit.  The actual loss you may or may not have incurred is far, far less than you want others to believe.  If BFL had shipped in November all of the units we intended to ship, the difficulty would be far higher in January than it is right now, thus your income would actually be less.  Under certain circumstances, depending on what you were mining with in mid 2012 and assuming you kept mining at that point, you actually may have made more money than if we had shipped in November.  None of this makes it right that we missed our target ship date, but the simple fact of the matter is your losses are not measured in the thousands you think they are.
3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

Personally, I'd rather have spend $30,000 in USD to purchase something than $54,000 in BTC, just because it's priced in BTC.  Maybe that's just me, but I find the value of $24,000 USD to be signifigant, whether it's valued in USD or BTC.  Maybe you don't, which is why you think comparing 3000 BTC in August 2012 to 420 BTC in August 2013 to be a logical comparison.  However, I'd wager than the vast, vast majority of people on this forum would rather have someone give them $54,000 in USD than $30,000 in BTC.

None of this even considers the fact that the power consumption of the 120 blades would be 3x that of the minirig.  That the blades are sold out.  That the space required for the blades would be significantly more and we won't discuss the aesthetic aspects because I don't think many people care about that as long as it mines, but there are some people that do care.

So here's the real tally:

Minirig: $30,000, uses less power, takes up less space
Blades: $54,000, uses 3x more power, takes up lots more space

Neither can be purchased off the shelf (as it were) at the moment, so there's your comparison.



..blah blah blah ....

Why are you pointing to some form of business facts & figures ...when you & BFL are the poster child of the most EPIC fail of how to rip/scam & totally alienate a community... it just boggles the mind... some of your performances I have witnessed WILL go down as MEMES

As soon as the community is given any form of opportunity's not associated with your HIJACK\HOSTAGE marketing plan

They are GONE GONE GONE !!

&

You & your band of Grifters will be exposed for what you are SCAMMERS !!

Trendon-Josh Shavers-Zerhlan  

I would rather stick a coke can of angry wasps up my arse than even think of doing business with you & BFL...I can tell you that 90%+ peopel feel the same way

Love & Kisses

OBJECT NOT FOUND
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August 29, 2013, 12:14:42 AM
 #52

This is strange because I bought my Avalon unit with BTC and my goal was to get more BTC and I was successful. But I'm probably only a stupid miner.
Yes, but can you do it again and again and again?  Anyone can get lucky once.

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August 29, 2013, 12:21:57 AM
 #53

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Ok, you give me 400 BTC and I'll give you 5 BTC. We can use John K. for escrow if you're uncomfortable with the trade. I'll even pay the escrow fee.

Buy & Hold
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August 29, 2013, 12:33:14 AM
 #54

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

You should never spend 10BTC to get 5BTC. That is a fools errand. You are reducing your BTC holdings and hoping the exchange rate will rise to bail out your poor decision making.
Always spend 10BTC to gain 400BTC. You cannot control the fluctuations in the exchange rate. Ideally, spend 10BTC to get a product that ships immediately, so you can begin mining and not wait a year.

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of YouTube comments.
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August 29, 2013, 12:37:38 AM
 #55

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.
Hey Josh, while I realize this is a bit off-topic to this discussion, PG locked the other thread.  I was wondering, since you invited him to come look around and he is kind of an oppenent in regards to you and BFL, I live about 4 hours away and could, with your permission, run down and 'tag along' during the tour.  That way you'd have people from 'both sides' present.  I'm semi-retired and my schedule is very flexible.  Let me know.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 29, 2013, 12:38:40 AM
 #56

So here's the real tally:

Minirig: $30,000, uses less power, takes up less space
Blades: $54,000, uses 3x more power, takes up lots more space
ROFL, vapourware does tend not to take up much space, handy that.

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August 29, 2013, 12:45:07 AM
 #57

Getting back to the original topic.  What would stop those of us outside of the BFL inner circle, who might have more knowledge of the situation than us, from thinking that the coming price war wouldn't put them in serious jeopardy of not remaining a going concern.  While ASICMINER sold out on some blades, the price is not going to go back up when they come back in, which seems to be always pretty darn quick.  Even if the math presented above is slightly off with regard to mini-rig and X blades at Y price, the very real possibility that hashrate is available at a significantly lower price than a BFL May preorder, (which there were a ton of due to price spiking of BTC,) definately exists.

donations; BTC: 1KN24ZhL3PW1Rq5f48PAaEdyv4iKHdUXnr
LTC: LTyKRd9dCtKDAxUo41k2ZShuMfzkzhxc2V
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August 29, 2013, 12:51:10 AM
 #58

Getting back to the original topic.  What would stop those of us outside of the BFL inner circle, who might have more knowledge of the situation than us, from thinking that the coming price war wouldn't put them in serious jeopardy of not remaining a going concern.  While ASICMINER sold out on some blades, the price is not going to go back up when they come back in, which seems to be always pretty darn quick.  Even if the math presented above is slightly off with regard to mini-rig and X blades at Y price, the very real possibility that hashrate is available at a significantly lower price than a BFL May preorder, (which there were a ton of due to price spiking of BTC,) definately exists.


The inside vibe of BFL will be PONZI city...they dont have teh funds as they will have been spent !!!

Price war...i loled ... they cant even buy enough components to fulfill current orders 10x over

A gentle breeze will fold the house of cards that is BFL

OBJECT NOT FOUND
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August 29, 2013, 01:04:37 AM
 #59

This might be a good time to point out you can pre-order your ANTI-BFL T-Shirt at http://www.wtcr.ca/catalog/product/sh-abflw-01  as well you can also pre-order ASICMINER products and receive them in 4-6 weeks1.




1just kidding, shirts, blades, and usbs, ship IMMEDIATELY.

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August 29, 2013, 01:39:12 AM
 #60

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Ok, you give me 400 BTC and I'll give you 5 BTC. We can use John K. for escrow if you're uncomfortable with the trade. I'll even pay the escrow fee.

I know right? Its like BFL has no idea who they are selling their hardware too...........or maybe they do?   Hint: clueless noobs with the rest getting sucked in too.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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August 29, 2013, 01:42:12 AM
 #61

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.
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August 29, 2013, 02:48:09 AM
 #62

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

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August 29, 2013, 02:50:39 AM
 #63

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 29, 2013, 02:57:04 AM
 #64

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.


This is how you know you won an argument with Inaba. He stops replying to logic and math and starts flinging insults to derail the thread and keep people from reading about his failures.

Then his fanboi's cry that there is hate on the forums. Go figure.  Cheesy



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August 29, 2013, 03:01:14 AM
 #65

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.
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August 29, 2013, 03:04:13 AM
 #66

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.

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August 29, 2013, 03:22:13 AM
 #67

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that.  I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2.  Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5.  People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE.  They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S.  I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

17Np17BSrpnHCZ2pgtiMNnhjnsWJ2TMqq8
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August 29, 2013, 03:36:43 AM
 #68

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that.  I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2.  Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5.  People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE.  They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S.  I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

ALl of these delusions is what he keeps telling himself to justify the way he has treated and not delivered products to his long suffering customers

Your fantasy island days are over Jailbird... A market place with choices has started ...

And just think Josh..... BFL & the band of theifs & grifters... you guys  could have had IT ALL !!!!


.. in 5 years crypto will be as common as fiat and you guys could have been APPLE

The most MONUMENTAL  EPIC FAIL of this century  Cool


OBJECT NOT FOUND
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August 29, 2013, 05:52:30 AM
Last edit: August 29, 2013, 06:05:15 AM by Bicknellski
 #69


Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.


If you pick through a lot of his posts there are many many many more logical fallacies. He doesn't even realise it I am sure. Nice pick up! Happy hunting everyone.

http://wiki.ironchariots.org/index.php?title=Logical_fallacies

Logical fallacies
Code:
FORMAL FALLACIES

Propositional logic

Affirming a disjunct · Affirming the consequent · Argument from fallacy ·
False dilemma

Quantificational logic

Existential fallacy · Illicit conversion · Proof by example · Quantifier shift

Syllogistic

Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise · Exclusive premises · Necessity · Four-term Fallacy ·
Illicit major · Illicit minor · Undistributed middle


FAULTY GENERALISATIONS

General

Begging the question · Gambler's fallacy · Slippery slope · Equivocation · argumentum verbosium

Distribution fallacies

Fallacy of composition · Fallacy of division

Data mining

Cherry picking · Accident fallacy · Spotlight fallacy · Hasty generalization · Special pleading

Causation fallacies

Post hoc ergo propter hoc · Retrospective determinism · Suppressed correlative · Wrong direction

Ontological fallacies

Fallacy of reification · Pathetic fallacy · Loki's Wager


FALSE RELEVANCE

Appeals

Appeal to authority · Appeal to consequences · Appeal to emotion · Appeal to motive ·
Appeal to novelty · Appeal to tradition · Appeal to pity · Appeal to popularity · Appeal to poverty ·
Appeal to spite · Appeal to wealth ·

Sentimental fallacy

Argumentum ad baculum Ad hominem Ad hominem abusive · Reductio ad Hitlerum · Judgmental language · Straw man ·
Tu quoque

Genetic Fallacies

Genetic fallacy · Chronological snobbery · Association fallacy · Appeal to tradition · Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Dogie trust abuse, spam, bullying, conspiracy posts & insults to forum members. Ask the mods or admins to move Dogie's spam or off topic stalking posts to the link above.
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August 29, 2013, 06:15:07 AM
 #70

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. ...
Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:
touché

Empirical evidence suggests that you must be right. Otherwise your company wouldn't be swamped with orders.
Either that, or the majority of the customers are simply confused. Clearly, the masses cannot be wrong.

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August 29, 2013, 06:36:07 AM
 #71

Quote
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 Shipping Update
by BFL_Jody  , 08-28-2013 at 09:38 PM
Jalapenos: Feb 12, 2013

Little Singles: Oct. 11, 2012 pay date No LS shipped today

Singles: July 16, 2012 pay date

MiniRigs: for June 25 (2nd 500gh/s unit) and July 28 for 1st 500 gh/s
No MiniRigs shipped today


Most have only gotten one THIRD or two thirds of their order...IF they have even gotten their order. Don't even make the the 1.5TH/s comparison...it should be 3000 BTC for 0-500-1000GH/s vs...

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August 29, 2013, 07:05:03 AM
 #72

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

You are likely correct regarding the average miner and the whole prediction of exchange rate back in 2012.  However the new buyers will all learn pretty quickly the error of their ways since it's going to be lose lose for them as time moves forward.  Either exchange rate tanks and they lose in fiat terms or exchange rate is up and they realize that they could've made more by simply buying btc.  Lots of changes in this market makes it unpredictable.  As the total growth rate is likely to stabilize around the time 28nm or even 17nm really rolls out the next reward halfing will be right around the corner.  The thing is in any of this I don't see how it's ok to sell product and not deliver it for a year and then justify it by saying "well if we delivered it all you'd be worse of"?!?!?

hello, world!
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August 29, 2013, 09:20:01 AM
 #73

Quote from: Inaba link=topic=283286.msg3032120#
 Heh, what a tool.

This guy is pathetic as pr representative, should be fired long time ago.

Please dont kick me out from preorder queque.
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August 29, 2013, 09:48:06 AM
 #74

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.


Shut up and go to work  Angry

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August 29, 2013, 10:58:29 AM
 #75

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.
You and I had a similar discussion a while back, so let me ask again the question (slightly modified) you never answered:  Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

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August 29, 2013, 11:21:54 AM
 #76

Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

 Not definitively, no. Captain Hindsight says "You should probably have kept the BTC in retrospect" however.

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August 29, 2013, 11:40:43 AM
 #77

Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

 Not definitively, no. Captain Hindsight says "You should probably have kept the BTC in retrospect" however.


I fully agree, but that is my point, how many people had that foresight?

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I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 29, 2013, 12:32:20 PM
 #78

My 5 cents,Josh:
I really dont care so much about price of bitcoin and difficulty- if i would done wrong calculation- its my bad, my loss.
But tell me, WHY, who have given you right to tell me and others that YOUR wrong calculation are still our bad?
It doenst matter what is difficulty and bitcoin price. Its miners problem, OUR problem.
YOUR problem is that you have said about SIX FUCKING MONTHS "next week"/"two week".
YOU have said:
1)Bfl will always give refund if asked
2) Delivery october/november
3) Orders delivered by paydate
4) Backlog in August ( changed in 1-3 days to september)
Jody says that was biggest delivery day in history. Jalopeno 6 day of orders, Ls none, Singles 1 days of order. Minirigs same dates.
 So. Tell me:
Why the hell you are whining here that we are idiots?
Look @ mirror. You have no rights to point on our mistakes.
We are customers. We have paid you. You made mistakes, you have lied, you dont know shit about what are you doing.
Only right you have is get our devices we paid LAST YEAR as fast as you can  and do everything that customers would be happy and even say on forum that you are idiot if it need to be said. Any of your "defence" tactics is so stupid and idiotic that even my little sister sais "Josh Zerlan is stupid kid".

And in real world business- we make calculation depending of TOD. If you miss YOUR terms of delivery, you refund or give discount or even deliver free. I dont need asics i ordered anymore, if i cannot make profit.
I have agreed bigger power usage. I have agreed to get it without power supply and still doesnt have device i ordered last year, and @ the same time i see Avalon,Jalopeno, Little Single devices ordered AND PAID after me getting profits.
Why the hell we need delivery by paydate? Becouse early orders get more profit. LS orders ordered 3 months after some SINGLE are now hashing, and what do Single do? Nothing, it still not delivered.

Everything you say is bullshit.

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August 29, 2013, 01:26:09 PM
 #79

If BFL had shipped in November all of the units we intended to ship, the difficulty would be far higher in January than it is right now, thus your income would actually be less.

You realize that you just confirmed that nobody who ordered from you post January will ever make ROI right?
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August 29, 2013, 01:33:58 PM
 #80

Josh is seeing ghosts because he knows he is going to jail at some point. Better start beefing up bro.

Or do a "Manning"  Cheesy That'll get him his own spot in the protective custody suite  Grin

Ladies and gentleman, Josephine Zerlan!

Vires in numeris
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August 29, 2013, 05:27:45 PM
 #81

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

So you are basically saying that the vast majority of miners are complete idiots?
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August 29, 2013, 05:30:32 PM
 #82

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.
So you are basically saying that the vast majority of miners are complete idiots?

 Effectively, yes.

 He's also ACTUALLY said that we're all "monumental assholes", on top of the implication we are all complete idiots, so it's hard to take him as someone who has a healthy rooting in reality.

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August 29, 2013, 06:39:19 PM
 #83

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.


Do you agree no matter motive, you cant obtain it without receiving a product to mine?  

And Josh i love your posts as a follower of the forum.  I like that you have your products made in KC..... makes it easy just use a dolly to move products to you hosting center.  

But have you thought about changing aspects of your sourcing and production?  If you cant make a product without getting close to a year back log, maybe find a third party to build and ship to you.  Or become a chip company and focus on providing chips for others to use in their product.

Or you could always focus on getting someone really good at image rendering and announce a PCI-E card that no one has anything close to and charge customers to upgrade at a chance of getting something meaningful.
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August 29, 2013, 06:55:14 PM
 #84

Or you could always focus on getting someone really good at image rendering and announce a PCI-E card that no one has anything close to and charge customers to upgrade at a chance of getting something meaningful.

Cointerra beats Monarch in every respect.  Delivery date, price, and efficiency.  Not saying one should buy it trying to project ROI% for Dec with some much hashpower being sold (consensus guestimate - >6 TH by end of year).  However there is no reason anyone should pick Monarch over Cointerra. 

Quote
Or become a chip company and focus on providing chips for others to use in their product.
In the long run I think the successful ones will.   Look at Bitfury.  They sell no boards to the public instead they wholesale chips and rely on three major OEM (US, EU, Russia).  Think of how well that allows them to focus on the core task of chips, chips, chips.  Given their 55nm design has higher efficiency (J/GH and GH/mm2) than some 28nm designs it seems to be working.  If I was a ASIC company I would be worried about what a 28nm die shrink will look like.

Even AMD doesn't make graphics cards.  They make GPUs for a dozen or so OEMs which make graphics cards.
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August 29, 2013, 07:03:47 PM
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Quote
Or become a chip company and focus on providing chips for others to use in their product.
In the long run I think the successful ones will.   Look at Bitfury.  They sell no boards to the public instead they wholesale chips and rely on three major OEM (US, EU, Russia).  Think of how well that allows them to focus on the core task of chips, chips, chips.  Given their 55nm design has higher efficiency (J/GH and GH/mm2) than some 28nm designs it seems to be working.  If I was a ASIC company I would be worried about what a 28nm die shrink will look like.

Even AMD doesn't make graphics cards.  They make GPUs for a dozen or so OEMs which make graphics cards.

I think if they did it right its a option to.  They just have had a really horrible run at time frames.  I'm all for progress if they could ship massive amounts of quality chips would be great.  

I don't envy BFL though even if they had the best chip plan, with past record will be hard to get community to accept it or invest.  They really would have to buy with their own money then sell from stock they have.  Once stock runs out mark as out till they get next batch.  Any pre-order i dont think will provide them with many customers.
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August 29, 2013, 07:13:28 PM
 #86

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1 mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  20 Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

3000 BTC value in August 2012 in USD: $30,000
420 BTC value in August 2013 in USD: $54,600

So buy from ASICminer a year later, spend 46% more for 1/6th the hashing power @ 3x the power consumption!  Sounds like a good deal to me!  Not.

Now forgive me, perhaps my information is wrong, but aren't the Eruptor Blades 13 GH/s each?  If, so, how do you get 1500 GH out of 20 * 13?  

FUD much?

DeathAndTaxes' assessment is accurate. You have to look at the bitcoin price because it accounts for the opportunity cost correctly. Failure to do so leads to forgone profit.

Put another way: Not spending 2580 BTC (3000BTC-420BTC) for a minirig equivalent in August 2012 would have earned you ~ $330k.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.


I still think you are forgetting what happened before you arrival.    Let us not forget the advanced announcement that was pre-order only and at the time was only Bitcoin that was accepted.  Being that your specs (June 2012) crushed everything out there by a large margin, you really forced the hand of many MINERS to run and throw coins at BFL to get their spot then proceeded to be 10+ months late while you had all their pre-order coins that if I am correct, you should not of needed because of the venture capitalist that invested in you.  If the investment was the real deal then you could of just asked for a deposit like 10% and was not refundable.  

You are not going to win this argument Josh.  You never had the moral or ethical high-ground so you in fact are just defended a bad position.  I really feel bad for you to be honest.  

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August 29, 2013, 07:19:42 PM
 #87

The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC.  It just highlight how much BFL failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company.  Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC.  They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue.  It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late. 

You may ask why is this relevant?  Well because today BFL is offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time.  If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows months before they deliver someone else will offer a competing product for 6 BTC.

You do know there are some people hashing away with Mini-rigs right now?  I don't think they are complaining too much.  They're too busy trying to stash their piles bitcoins somewhere safe, lol.

And yes, I do know there are many others still waiting.  But sometimes the risk is worth the reward.  Other times... not so much.  But you certainly won't gain anything if you don't take some risk.  And you can minimize risk by hedging (splitting orders between different ASIC vendors and/or buying BTC) and doing research.

Is the pile going to be 3,000 BTC big?  Isn't that the real question?   Does the unit have value for the money spent?

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August 29, 2013, 07:26:15 PM
 #88

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.


You may be right about what people would choose but I would want the 400 BTC because it is a fixed currency and 400 units gives me much more leverage than 5 units.   

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August 29, 2013, 09:16:50 PM
 #89

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.
So you are basically saying that the vast majority of miners are complete idiots?

 Effectively, yes.

 He's also ACTUALLY said that we're all "monumental assholes", on top of the implication we are all complete idiots, so it's hard to take him as someone who has a healthy rooting in reality.


Oh no he has an excellent rooting in reality.  It's just that his reality is to maximize the dollars that go into his pockets.  It's a classic snake oil salesman / religious zealot tactics.  Those that question the miracle are put down as idiots and non-believers.  Once you realize that the snake oil is fake you can never go back so you will never be his customer ever again.  Insulting you only increases the possible sales to actual customers.  He will make any plausible sounding statements like the one above to draw in the people who are miscalculating or are not realizing the exchange rate effects on a limited currency.  And the beauty is that the deflationary aspect of bitcoin keeps on helping out.  Those that are or potentially will be his customers look at the above and go "why yes that sounds right" so he must be also right that those putting him down are idiots.  Let me just get some bitcoins quick to send to him and I am set for life mining $5000 per month without work.

hello, world!
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August 30, 2013, 01:38:36 AM
 #90

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.
You and I had a similar discussion a while back, so let me ask again the question (slightly modified) you never answered:  Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

Actually, yes I could. However, I only need to show the opportunity cost of turning over my BTC to another party. That third party gets the chance to benefit from the rise in BTC exchange rate. I have zero chance to benefit from an exchange rate rise if I do not have my BTC. Whoever took my BTC has a higher than zero chance, therefore they are in a better position to capitalize on any rise in exchange rates.

We don't need to talk about exchange rates though. We can just take Josh's example: Give me 400 BTC now (worth $52,000) and I will promise you 200 BTC at some point in the future such that the USD value of that 200 BTC is more than $70,000. In other words, give me $52,000 of BTC now, and I will give you $70,000 of BTC back at some point in the future if the exchange rate goes above $350/BTC.

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August 30, 2013, 02:02:05 AM
 #91

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.
You and I had a similar discussion a while back, so let me ask again the question (slightly modified) you never answered:  Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

Actually, yes I could. However, I only need to show the opportunity cost of turning over my BTC to another party. That third party gets the chance to benefit from the rise in BTC exchange rate. I have zero chance to benefit from an exchange rate rise if I do not have my BTC. Whoever took my BTC has a higher than zero chance, therefore they are in a better position to capitalize on any rise in exchange rates.

We don't need to talk about exchange rates though. We can just take Josh's example: Give me 400 BTC now (worth $52,000) and I will promise you 200 BTC at some point in the future such that the USD value of that 200 BTC is more than $70,000. In other words, give me $52,000 of BTC now, and I will give you $70,000 of BTC back at some point in the future if the exchange rate goes above $350/BTC.


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August 30, 2013, 02:34:13 AM
 #92

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.
You and I had a similar discussion a while back, so let me ask again the question (slightly modified) you never answered:  Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

Actually, yes I could. However, I only need to show the opportunity cost of turning over my BTC to another party. That third party gets the chance to benefit from the rise in BTC exchange rate. I have zero chance to benefit from an exchange rate rise if I do not have my BTC. Whoever took my BTC has a higher than zero chance, therefore they are in a better position to capitalize on any rise in exchange rates.

We don't need to talk about exchange rates though. We can just take Josh's example: Give me 400 BTC now (worth $52,000) and I will promise you 200 BTC at some point in the future such that the USD value of that 200 BTC is more than $70,000. In other words, give me $52,000 of BTC now, and I will give you $70,000 of BTC back at some point in the future if the exchange rate goes above $350/BTC.
While I understand the economics involved, I was just asking a straight line question which you answered, and I commend you for your forebearance.  The patience needed is not something everyone has.

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August 30, 2013, 02:39:12 AM
 #93

Effectively, yes.
 He's also ACTUALLY said that we're all "monumental assholes", on top of the implication we are all complete idiots, so it's hard to take him as someone who has a healthy rooting in reality.

No, it's quite clear that he has a firm grip on it to me.
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August 30, 2013, 03:17:16 AM
 #94

Effectively, yes.
 He's also ACTUALLY said that we're all "monumental assholes", on top of the implication we are all complete idiots, so it's hard to take him as someone who has a healthy rooting in reality.

No, it's quite clear that he has a firm grip on it to me.

Actually I agree with Yecchi ...He has a firm Pathological view of the world & Humans....

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August 30, 2013, 03:31:48 AM
 #95

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.


Actually, anyone who takes the 10 BTC widget that generates 5 BTC valued at $200 each is a short sighted fucking moron, chasing short term gains over long term advantage. Edit: not necessarily a moron, the possibility exists that their strategy is short term gains on purpose.  To each their own.
Simply put:
5 BTC valued at $200 each = $1000, but for each $1 BTC goes up in the future they only gain $5 of value, and has a LOT of room for downward price movement.
400 BTC valued at $200 each = $800, $200 less at the time of calculation, but for each $1 BTC goes up in the future they gain $400 of value, and very little room for downward price movement.

You may well be right, and most miners may well choose the 5 BTC/$200 value, but they're fucking retarded likely cheating themselves if they do.
The 400 BTC/$2 value has far more upside potential and reward, and less downside risk.  It's the obvious choice if profit is the motivator.
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August 30, 2013, 06:50:23 AM
 #96

It's the obvious choice if profit is the motivator.

You would think right?

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August 30, 2013, 11:42:55 AM
 #97

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.


Actually, anyone who takes the 10 BTC widget that generates 5 BTC valued at $200 each is a short sighted fucking moron, chasing short term gains over long term advantage. Edit: not necessarily a moron, the possibility exists that their strategy is short term gains on purpose.  To each their own.
Simply put:
5 BTC valued at $200 each = $1000, but for each $1 BTC goes up in the future they only gain $5 of value, and has a LOT of room for downward price movement.
400 BTC valued at $200 each = $800, $200 less at the time of calculation, but for each $1 BTC goes up in the future they gain $400 of value, and very little room for downward price movement.

You may well be right, and most miners may well choose the 5 BTC/$200 value, but they're fucking retarded likely cheating themselves if they do.
The 400 BTC/$2 value has far more upside potential and reward, and less downside risk.  It's the obvious choice if profit is the motivator.
While the numbers are exaggerated, a widget that costs a small amount compared to what it would bring in has already been created.  It's called an ASIC.  At the time pre-orders were taken, the smallest unit cost less than 30BTC, and if ONLY 1 was made and there was NO competition, it would have brought in more than 400BTC in 12 months.  Therein lies the rub... there will be competition and no one will make just one.

If we step into fantasy world though, we now have every unit capable of making such incredible returns... the ~4600 BTC for every mini-rig becomes 61,333.  The network increase since those preorders is now at over 600TH.  That's 400 minirigs.  That would mean 24,533,200 BTC would have been produced in a single year and if we went to Inaba's farcical numbers that would be well over 72million.  In less than 4 months at todays rate the entire BTC supply would have been exhausted.

THIS is the problem with your "I'd take the 400 BTC!" and the reason why the difficulty is so high today... since EVERYONE wanted the 400 BTC... no one can have it.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 30, 2013, 12:25:42 PM
 #98

K9 once again demonstrates his inability ...

It's inabaility. i-na-ba-i-li-ty.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Inaba

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August 30, 2013, 03:28:30 PM
 #99

While the numbers are exaggerated, a widget that costs a small amount compared to what it would bring in has already been created.  It's called an ASIC.  At the time pre-orders were taken, the smallest unit cost less than 30BTC, and if ONLY 1 was made and there was NO competition, it would have brought in more than 400BTC in 12 months.  Therein lies the rub... there will be competition and no one will make just one.
Thus everyone projected how much competition BFL would have between October of 2012 and January of 2013. The proejction was zero, they were the only vendor planning to ship. Then it was a simple matter of when you ordered your BFL product as to when you would get it.  Instead, BFL was 3rd (out of 3) to deliver. Both ASICMiner and Avalon batch 1 deployed first, thus reaping large rewards.

If we step into fantasy world though, we now have every unit capable of making such incredible returns... the ~4600 BTC for every mini-rig becomes 61,333.  The network increase since those preorders is now at over 600TH.  That's 400 minirigs.  That would mean 24,533,200 BTC would have been produced in a single year and if we went to Inaba's farcical numbers that would be well over 72million.  In less than 4 months at todays rate the entire BTC supply would have been exhausted.
No, most people here realize that mining is a zero sum game and that they are competing with all other miners. There are lots of noobs drawn in by the April bubble who probably can't find their ass with both hands. I am sure they have no idea about how mining works, but thankfully most of them are not on these forums.

THIS is the problem with your "I'd take the 400 BTC!" and the reason why the difficulty is so high today... since EVERYONE wanted the 400 BTC... no one can have it.
Only early adopters have a shot at it, thus all of BFL land went from the catbird seat to negative return. Once the hash rate reaches equilibrium, you cannot generate much more than the worth of the device. There are still some efficiencies to be found with over/under clocking etc.

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August 30, 2013, 03:34:35 PM
 #100

If you are MAD at BFL, then...

 Dude, cut this shit out already. It's juvenile behavior. Be better than that.
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August 30, 2013, 06:37:55 PM
 #101

While the numbers are exaggerated, a widget that costs a small amount compared to what it would bring in has already been created.  It's called an ASIC.  At the time pre-orders were taken, the smallest unit cost less than 30BTC, and if ONLY 1 was made and there was NO competition, it would have brought in more than 400BTC in 12 months.  Therein lies the rub... there will be competition and no one will make just one.
Thus everyone projected how much competition BFL would have between October of 2012 and January of 2013. The proejction was zero, they were the only vendor planning to ship. Then it was a simple matter of when you ordered your BFL product as to when you would get it.  Instead, BFL was 3rd (out of 3) to deliver. Both ASICMiner and Avalon batch 1 deployed first, thus reaping large rewards.

If we step into fantasy world though, we now have every unit capable of making such incredible returns... the ~4600 BTC for every mini-rig becomes 61,333.  The network increase since those preorders is now at over 600TH.  That's 400 minirigs.  That would mean 24,533,200 BTC would have been produced in a single year and if we went to Inaba's farcical numbers that would be well over 72million.  In less than 4 months at todays rate the entire BTC supply would have been exhausted.
No, most people here realize that mining is a zero sum game and that they are competing with all other miners. There are lots of noobs drawn in by the April bubble who probably can't find their ass with both hands. I am sure they have no idea about how mining works, but thankfully most of them are not on these forums.

THIS is the problem with your "I'd take the 400 BTC!" and the reason why the difficulty is so high today... since EVERYONE wanted the 400 BTC... no one can have it.
Only early adopters have a shot at it, thus all of BFL land went from the catbird seat to negative return. Once the hash rate reaches equilibrium, you cannot generate much more than the worth of the device. There are still some efficiencies to be found with over/under clocking etc.
Very true, they did assess the competition, but they failed to assess the quantity ordered.  Most of the people seem to think it'd be just like the B1 Avalons and they'd have had BTC raining down on them. 

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 30, 2013, 06:41:03 PM
 #102

Quote
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware







1DentLdiRMv3dpmpmqWsQev8BUaty9vN3v
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August 30, 2013, 06:43:18 PM
 #103

Quote
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware

No one said what the starting value of the BTC was... that 10BTC was the same for both comments, not 20 vs 2000.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 31, 2013, 08:09:52 AM
 #104

Quote
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware

No one said what the starting value of the BTC was... that 10BTC was the same for both comments, not 20 vs 2000.
Maybe the assumption was that they instead held the bitcoins and would have had whatever 10BTC was at the final value?

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......SECURITY DECENTRALIZED...
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May 28, 2014, 07:38:16 AM
 #105

Has history just repeated itself?

Bitmain and Spondoolies Tech shipping off the shelf and BFL no Monarch to be seen anywhere. Look back and read the Inaba and BCP defense... sound familiar?

GUT PUNCH.



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May 28, 2014, 07:45:01 AM
 #106


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

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May 28, 2014, 02:53:34 PM
 #107


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

--Doogie
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May 28, 2014, 02:58:47 PM
 #108


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

They were supposed to ship every month since December but basically and more likely mined with the hardware and is sitting on it. Owning a pool of their own allows them to pull that off to some degree.

"amtminers scam joshua zipkin scammer"
-Joshua Zipkin leaked skype chats http://bit.ly/1s7U2Yb
-For bitcoin to succeed the community must police itself.
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May 28, 2014, 03:29:55 PM
 #109


I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.
Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

They were supposed to ship every month since December but basically and more likely mined with the hardware and is sitting on it. Owning a pool of their own allows them to pull that off to some degree.

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

--Doogie
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May 28, 2014, 03:37:16 PM
 #110

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

BFL purchased Eclipse from Josh quite some time ago.
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May 28, 2014, 05:36:56 PM
 #111

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

BFL purchased Eclipse from Josh quite some time ago.

Oh, okay. I tried that pool with EasyMiner when I got my first 60 GH/s ASIC. Eclipse throttled it at 7 GH/s.

Too funny. Wink

--Doogie
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