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Author Topic: Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices  (Read 5419 times)
rograz
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August 29, 2013, 01:42:12 AM
 #61

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.
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August 29, 2013, 02:48:09 AM
 #62

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

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August 29, 2013, 02:50:39 AM
 #63

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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August 29, 2013, 02:57:04 AM
 #64

3. Bitcoin price - You paid ~$10 per bitcoin in August 2012. You were unable to predict the price (since if you were, you'd be a multi-billionaire right now), so you elected to purchase mining hardware as a hedge against bitcoin going up.  This let you lock in your price of bitcoins, and if it went down you'd be making back many, many more bitcoins than you spent.  If it went up, you'd make less bitcoins, but you'd make more fiat... that is the whole point of mining hardware.  It locks you in at a bitcoin value and gives you the potential to derive more wealth from the unit than you had previous, be it in BTC or fiat, depending on market trends.

This aspect of buying mining gear is what so many just refuses to understand.

The aspect of not buying the hardware is what Josh is ignoring.

Let us compare the cases of buying mining hardware for immediate instant delivery vs not buying the hardware and keeping the BTC:
Case 1) Buying hardware, spend 3000 BTC to get 1.5TH/s, we now have hardware in hand.
Case 2) Not buying hardware, we still have 3000 BTC.

Now, if the hardware returns less than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a bad one and Case 2 prevails. If the hardware generates more than 3000 BTC after mining is complete and all residual device value has been recovered, the investment was a good one and Case 1 prevails.

There is no case in which receiving any given piece of mining hardware later is better than receiving it sooner (assuming the hardware has a long operational lifetime). So you cannot add a delay in shipping to Case 1 and hope to improve it's returns. Any delay will always make Case 1 return less value than if there was no delay.

So, the idea that adding a delay to shipping has somehow enhanced the purchase of a unit of mining hardware is ludicrous.

If you still doubt, just replace the word "Bitcoin" with "ounces of gold". Josh says giving 400 ounces of gold for 5 ounces of gold back is a good deal, because the price of gold rose.

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.


This is how you know you won an argument with Inaba. He stops replying to logic and math and starts flinging insults to derail the thread and keep people from reading about his failures.

Then his fanboi's cry that there is hate on the forums. Go figure.  Cheesy



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August 29, 2013, 03:01:14 AM
 #65

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.
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August 29, 2013, 03:04:13 AM
 #66

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.

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August 29, 2013, 03:22:13 AM
 #67

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that.  I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2.  Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5.  People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE.  They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S.  I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

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August 29, 2013, 03:36:43 AM
 #68

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.

But, say we ignore that.  I can still assure you that not a single solitary human being capable of rational though would pick option 2.  Notice that option 2 converts 10 BTC into 5.  People looking to get rid of excess BTC can donate them to charity, or send them to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE.  They don't need you to provide a BTC removal service.

P.S.  I am "an average miner", and I have never intentionally purchased equipment that I expected would earn me less BTC than what I was spending on it.

ALl of these delusions is what he keeps telling himself to justify the way he has treated and not delivered products to his long suffering customers

Your fantasy island days are over Jailbird... A market place with choices has started ...

And just think Josh..... BFL & the band of theifs & grifters... you guys  could have had IT ALL !!!!


.. in 5 years crypto will be as common as fiat and you guys could have been APPLE

The most MONUMENTAL  EPIC FAIL of this century  Cool


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August 29, 2013, 05:52:30 AM
Last edit: August 29, 2013, 06:05:15 AM by Bicknellski
 #69


Woohoo!  Fallacy of the False Dilemma.


If you pick through a lot of his posts there are many many many more logical fallacies. He doesn't even realise it I am sure. Nice pick up! Happy hunting everyone.

http://wiki.ironchariots.org/index.php?title=Logical_fallacies

Logical fallacies
Code:
FORMAL FALLACIES

Propositional logic

Affirming a disjunct · Affirming the consequent · Argument from fallacy ·
False dilemma

Quantificational logic

Existential fallacy · Illicit conversion · Proof by example · Quantifier shift

Syllogistic

Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise · Exclusive premises · Necessity · Four-term Fallacy ·
Illicit major · Illicit minor · Undistributed middle


FAULTY GENERALISATIONS

General

Begging the question · Gambler's fallacy · Slippery slope · Equivocation · argumentum verbosium

Distribution fallacies

Fallacy of composition · Fallacy of division

Data mining

Cherry picking · Accident fallacy · Spotlight fallacy · Hasty generalization · Special pleading

Causation fallacies

Post hoc ergo propter hoc · Retrospective determinism · Suppressed correlative · Wrong direction

Ontological fallacies

Fallacy of reification · Pathetic fallacy · Loki's Wager


FALSE RELEVANCE

Appeals

Appeal to authority · Appeal to consequences · Appeal to emotion · Appeal to motive ·
Appeal to novelty · Appeal to tradition · Appeal to pity · Appeal to popularity · Appeal to poverty ·
Appeal to spite · Appeal to wealth ·

Sentimental fallacy

Argumentum ad baculum Ad hominem Ad hominem abusive · Reductio ad Hitlerum · Judgmental language · Straw man ·
Tu quoque

Genetic Fallacies

Genetic fallacy · Chronological snobbery · Association fallacy · Appeal to tradition · Texas sharpshooter fallacy

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Jutarul
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August 29, 2013, 06:15:07 AM
 #70

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then. ...
Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:
touché

Empirical evidence suggests that you must be right. Otherwise your company wouldn't be swamped with orders.
Either that, or the majority of the customers are simply confused. Clearly, the masses cannot be wrong.

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August 29, 2013, 06:36:07 AM
 #71

Quote
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 Shipping Update
by BFL_Jody  , 08-28-2013 at 09:38 PM
Jalapenos: Feb 12, 2013

Little Singles: Oct. 11, 2012 pay date No LS shipped today

Singles: July 16, 2012 pay date

MiniRigs: for June 25 (2nd 500gh/s unit) and July 28 for 1st 500 gh/s
No MiniRigs shipped today


Most have only gotten one THIRD or two thirds of their order...IF they have even gotten their order. Don't even make the the 1.5TH/s comparison...it should be 3000 BTC for 0-500-1000GH/s vs...

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August 29, 2013, 07:05:03 AM
 #72

This is a completely disingenuous market that is predicated on completely ludicrous assumptions.  Lets look at a few of them, but this list is by no means comprehensive:
Mining has different market dynamics than you'd like to make people believe. In mining the product is money or a money substitute itself. Thus miners are generally interested in increasing their purchasing power within the money system itself.

Put another way: A miner becomes by definition the issuer of the currency and benefits from the ongoing inflation because they get the new money first before the market can price in the inflation or the mining costs are generally lower than the mining revenue. He thus operates CONDITIONAL on the assumption that the purchasing power of the mined asset increases, stays the same or inflates slower than the expected incoming cash flow. If I would expect the mined asset price to fall, I would NOT buy hardware in the first place, but hedge my asset position by selling them for something else.

Thus, mining investments are similar to doubling down on an appreciation of the mined asset. The miner accepts a certain degree of risk and capital expenditure for the prospect of getting that capital back. If I expect the capital expenditure to outsize the mining revenue, I wouldn't do the investment in the first place. That simply doesn't make any economic sense.

You clearly do not understand the motivations of the vast majority of miners, then.  This may be your way of thinking, but I assure you beyond any shadow of a doubt, most miners are in it to make a profit in USD (or their local currency) not to "increase their purchasing power within the money system itself."  Most miners couldn't give a shit about how much BTC it makes in the end, they just want to know how much USD (or local currency) it makes.

Once again, I challenge you:

Ask an average miner which they'd rather do:

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Invariably, the answer will be the second option, even though that person could have increased their BTC holdings by 40x!  Very few people want BTC for BTC sake, they want BTC for what value it provides in their local currency.  Again, you may be different, but you are in a very tiny, miniscule minority.

You are likely correct regarding the average miner and the whole prediction of exchange rate back in 2012.  However the new buyers will all learn pretty quickly the error of their ways since it's going to be lose lose for them as time moves forward.  Either exchange rate tanks and they lose in fiat terms or exchange rate is up and they realize that they could've made more by simply buying btc.  Lots of changes in this market makes it unpredictable.  As the total growth rate is likely to stabilize around the time 28nm or even 17nm really rolls out the next reward halfing will be right around the corner.  The thing is in any of this I don't see how it's ok to sell product and not deliver it for a year and then justify it by saying "well if we delivered it all you'd be worse of"?!?!?

hello, world!
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August 29, 2013, 09:20:01 AM
 #73

Quote from: Inaba link=topic=283286.msg3032120#
 Heh, what a tool.

This guy is pathetic as pr representative, should be fired long time ago.

Please dont kick me out from preorder queque.
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August 29, 2013, 09:48:06 AM
 #74

K9 once again demonstrates his inability to follow even slightly complex sentences and ideas, seeing as that has basically nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote and is in direct contradiction to my post.  Heh, what a tool.


Shut up and go to work  Angry

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August 29, 2013, 10:58:29 AM
 #75

Heh, what a tool.

 Are you completely incapable of having discourse without resorting to insults when a counterpoint does not fit your narrative ?

 There is no need for that final snipe.

 Evolve, Josh.

To be fair, Josh has to argue that receiving less than you paid is good, and that waiting a really long time for your stuff is also good.
Don't give him too hard a time, it is a very difficult position to defend.
You and I had a similar discussion a while back, so let me ask again the question (slightly modified) you never answered:  Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

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August 29, 2013, 11:21:54 AM
 #76

Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

 Not definitively, no. Captain Hindsight says "You should probably have kept the BTC in retrospect" however.

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August 29, 2013, 11:40:43 AM
 #77

Can you show that the BTC you had last June and every BTC you earned from then until now was never spent, or IF spent, that you ended up with more BTC from having spent it?

 Not definitively, no. Captain Hindsight says "You should probably have kept the BTC in retrospect" however.


I fully agree, but that is my point, how many people had that foresight?

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I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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August 29, 2013, 12:32:20 PM
 #78

My 5 cents,Josh:
I really dont care so much about price of bitcoin and difficulty- if i would done wrong calculation- its my bad, my loss.
But tell me, WHY, who have given you right to tell me and others that YOUR wrong calculation are still our bad?
It doenst matter what is difficulty and bitcoin price. Its miners problem, OUR problem.
YOUR problem is that you have said about SIX FUCKING MONTHS "next week"/"two week".
YOU have said:
1)Bfl will always give refund if asked
2) Delivery october/november
3) Orders delivered by paydate
4) Backlog in August ( changed in 1-3 days to september)
Jody says that was biggest delivery day in history. Jalopeno 6 day of orders, Ls none, Singles 1 days of order. Minirigs same dates.
 So. Tell me:
Why the hell you are whining here that we are idiots?
Look @ mirror. You have no rights to point on our mistakes.
We are customers. We have paid you. You made mistakes, you have lied, you dont know shit about what are you doing.
Only right you have is get our devices we paid LAST YEAR as fast as you can  and do everything that customers would be happy and even say on forum that you are idiot if it need to be said. Any of your "defence" tactics is so stupid and idiotic that even my little sister sais "Josh Zerlan is stupid kid".

And in real world business- we make calculation depending of TOD. If you miss YOUR terms of delivery, you refund or give discount or even deliver free. I dont need asics i ordered anymore, if i cannot make profit.
I have agreed bigger power usage. I have agreed to get it without power supply and still doesnt have device i ordered last year, and @ the same time i see Avalon,Jalopeno, Little Single devices ordered AND PAID after me getting profits.
Why the hell we need delivery by paydate? Becouse early orders get more profit. LS orders ordered 3 months after some SINGLE are now hashing, and what do Single do? Nothing, it still not delivered.

Everything you say is bullshit.

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August 29, 2013, 01:26:09 PM
 #79

If BFL had shipped in November all of the units we intended to ship, the difficulty would be far higher in January than it is right now, thus your income would actually be less.

You realize that you just confirmed that nobody who ordered from you post January will ever make ROI right?
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August 29, 2013, 01:33:58 PM
 #80

Josh is seeing ghosts because he knows he is going to jail at some point. Better start beefing up bro.

Or do a "Manning"  Cheesy That'll get him his own spot in the protective custody suite  Grin

Ladies and gentleman, Josephine Zerlan!

Vires in numeris
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