Bitcoin Doubling Floors

[RejectedBanana]

I've posted a series of these charts in other threads, but mind as well start consolidating them in my own thread...

Today's baby breakout is making me brave enough to call $10,000 our new floor. Time for a doubling floor update!

$10k marks the 12th doubling since Bitcoin was $2.50 in 2012.

From $2.5k to $5k took 77 days.
From $5k to $10k has taken 100 days, if $10k holds.

The shortest doubling floor was from $20 to $40 in 39 days.
The longest doubling floor was from $80 to $160 in 546 days during the Mt Gox era.

I'm guesstimating from trend ~90 days from now we might establish $20,000 as a new floor, sometime in April?

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. Traders prefer ATHs, I suppose. Too transient and susceptible to FUD for me.

Hopefully this is the last time we see quadruple digits!

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[RejectedBanana]

Sliced and diced by calendar year might also reveal some trends. But I doubt calendar numerology will get you too far.

With the exception of 2014, every year ended higher than it started. The lowest prices of the year were in Jan/Feb and highest in Dec, but this has already been pointed out.

2014 is the only year that ended lower than it started. This was following 2013 which achieved three doubling floors prior to Mt Gox rise and fall.

2017 achieved four doublings floors if $10k holds... Let's hope 2018 doesn't follow 2014's trend!

[seanadams]

I also hope this is a glowing year for bitcoin.
I do not know how my rice if this year becomes a bad year for bitcoin, almost 80% of my total assets I have prepared for bitcoin surprises in this year.


I think this year we will meet new ATH from bitcoin. I hope so, but all return to the pattern of the market. we can only follow it.
and I strongly agree HODL it and feel a tremendous profit this year.
$ 40,000 is real.

[HabBear]

Wow, this is solid analysis! Thank you for sharing, will you keep this going?

Would it be appropriate to do a similar analysis on ceilings? Knowing where the current floor has been established is important to know the triggers that might lead to a serious drop. But what about the ceiling levels that represent the resistance against a break out, so we know that if we break through the ceiling we should hang on tight and enjoy the ride closer to the moon. Thoughts?

By the way, the phrase is "might as well", not "mind as well".

I'll be subscribing to this thread!

[J. Cooper]

Your tale on the bitcoin price analysis is very interesting. Especially since you're working with floors instead of Ath's and that isn't very common to see. I'm not a very big of a fan TA in any way or form but I do feel like your analysis if the price action gives a nice estimate of what the price should be. Nice stuff.

[alyssa85]

I think 2018 will be a bit like 2015 - we will rise a little, but not without a lot of time just treading water wondering whether bitcoin will meet it's challenges in scalingn and mass adoption. The jury is out on the latter - many of the companies that adopted bitcoin in 2014 have reversed their decision as bitcoin became unusable. This year will determine whether bitcoin makes it or is replaced by an alt.

[timerland]

I think 2018 will be a bit like 2015 - we will rise a little, but not without a lot of time just treading water wondering whether bitcoin will meet it's challenges in scalingn and mass adoption. The jury is out on the latter - many of the companies that adopted bitcoin in 2014 have reversed their decision as bitcoin became unusable. This year will determine whether bitcoin makes it or is replaced by an alt.

Agreed. 2018 is definitely not going to be a 20x year like 2017, but it's still probably going to make small gains. Right now, the price is only a thousand or two over $10k, and people are still wondering if we'll make a comeback or nah.

I think that from 2018 to 2020 we'll see price just go up to around $15-20k and stabilize. We'll see a reduction in the amount of crypto news that we saw from 2017, but still a lot more than say 2015.

It's just a natural part of the cycle. It seems like that the year after each halving is where the most gains are being made. My money's going to be on bitcoin going to at least $40k by 2021, but before that I really don't see too much more gains happening.

OP, great analysis. I think that $20k as a floor could well happen by April, by the looks of it.

[RejectedBanana]

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!

[magneto]

Hitting a new all time high seems very optimistic in mid may.

Anyways, I can definitely see it happening if the conditions were right and people are optimistic about the future.

The price floor for BTC currently is around $10k or so. Which is up around 60% from the low of near $6k. It's pretty much exactly double the price of right now and 90 days seems to be a fair amount of time to do it.

Although perhaps we may have to wait for the close to the next halving to recover and get a new ATH if people get scared by more government bans.

[Kylapoiss]

I've never been too keen with TA regarding BTC, but this looks interesting for someone who entered the market just when your TA starts, please keep the thread going

Anyways I doubt there will be a consolidation period similar to post Gox era, as the adoption and interest has risen quite a lot from that time. So I think we will not have 2-3 years of sideways action anymore. But would be nice to see the volatility to stabilise at least a little bit, to make people more interested in the idea rather than a "get-rich-quick" scheme.

So following this John McAfee wouldn't have to eat his x? Let's hope so, would be disgusting to watch it on live TV..

[cannycassiopeia]

Nice modified use of the Darvas box. 

[jimbo2000]

It would seem that if 10k holds and you're right that the doubling is generally speeding up. The last few have been at an average of just under 100 days. If bitcoin growth continues to increase at speed then it could be happening more like every 50 days.