Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[btc_uzr]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

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[DeathAndTaxes]

Update KNC sept/oct to 2 PH/s.  Asked for clarification on their "70% of all coins" press release.  It is unclear what the 70% refers to.  Is it hashrate at the time of the press release.  70% of the average hashrate since they started shipping?

As the network was 1.3 PH/s before KNC started shipping and was ~4 PH/s at the time of the statement the upper bound would be 2.7 PH/s (that would be if nobody else shipped a single GH/s since 1 Sept).  If we look at 70% being the average hashrate from the time they started shipping that would be ~2 PH/s.   70% of the peak hashrate would be 2.8 PH/s which would be impossible.    So my best guess is KNC shipped 2 to 2.5 PH/s in Batch 1.  This would mean the made up 70% to 80% of the hashrate increase since 1 Sept and all other competitors were 20% to 30%.


My guess is that Nov batch is probably the same size.  This is based on nothing more than hopefully KNC knows their own limitations and it took >2 weeks to deliver the first batch thus it probably will take at least 2 weeks to deliver the second one.  If the second batch is significantly larger (say 50%+) than the first the Nov orders will roll into Dec.

So based on the order count and the Sept/Oct batch I agree we probably are looking at another 2.0 PH/s to 2.5 PH/s shipping in Nov.  I left it at 2 PH/s for now but will adjust upward based on clarification of the size of the Sept/Oct batch. Those wishing to be more pessimistic should add 1.0 PH/s to the total to account for higher Sept/Oct and Nov batch sizes.

[rampalija]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

[DeathAndTaxes]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.

[rpg]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.

with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.

with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.

Um you didn't notice the 2.5 PH/s rise in difficulty over the last month which just happens to coincide with KNC Sep/Oct order shipments?

preorder =/= already mining.  If it was then difficulty would be 15 PH/s right now and there would be no need for this thread you could just look at a hashrate chart.

KNC Nov batch won't be shipping until Nov 15th.
HashFast batch1 won't be shipping until mid Dec.
etc.

Obviously hashrate shipping in the future can't already have affected the hashrate right?

[Puppet]

with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.

KnC hasnt been shipping for 2 weeks and will only resume next week I believe
HF isnt shipping anything yet and wont until december
CT isnt shipping anything yet and wont until december or january
Actm isnt shipping yet and wont until december or january
Bitmine isnt shipping yet and wont until december or january
Black arrow isnt shipping yet and wont until February
BFL Monarch isnt shipping yet and, well, who knows really.

You get the idea.
The only thing thats still shipping right now (allegedly) is 65nm BFL miners, but they dont have much bite anymore, and perhaps some bitfury boards and USB miners.

[rpg]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.

with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.

Um you didn't notice the 2.5 PH/s rise in difficulty over the last month which just happens to coincide with KNC Sep/Oct order shipments?

preorder =/= already mining.  If it was then difficulty would be 15 PH/s right now and there would be no need for this thread you could just look at a hashrate chart.

KNC Nov batch won't be shipping until Nov 15th.
HashFast batch1 won't be shipping until mid Dec.

Obviously hashrate shipping in the future can't already have affected the hashrate right?

not a BFL defender, but as they caught up with their 1.5T machines shipments the diff raised during that same time. Coincidence? Don't know, I have no idea of how many 1.5T machines they shipped. Avalon was supposed to have shipped ~1000 Ts, BFL is unknown. Asicminer probably around 100 Ts. Sorry, but it doesn't add up on my book,  I suspect these companies are lying on their actual shipped ASICs. Just in my honest opinion.

[DeathAndTaxes]

The thread is about orders not shipments.   Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?

For the record no company has every in black and white stated how much they shipped.  Ever.  The are very opaque about that and if anything they have a huge incentive to lie to the downside.  Say a company said "yup we are shipping 1 PH/s per week and have orders booked for the 20-30 weeks" (it doesn't matter if they are lying or telling the truth) do you think that would make it easier or harder to sell more rigs?

[rpg]

The thread is about orders not shipments.   Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?

the network is ~3.7. We'll see if when they start shipping if the network rises accordingly to the announced orders. If it does the network hash rate should rise at least to the numbers stated by OP

[DeathAndTaxes]

The thread is about orders not shipments.   Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?

the network is ~3.7. We'll see if when they start shipping if the network rises accordingly to the announced orders. If it does the network hash rate should rise at least to the numbers stated by OP

Unless the OP is wrong.  There is no announced orders.  The title contains the word "estimate" for a reason.

[Syke]

I have no idea of how many 1.5T machines they shipped.

None. BFL never shipped a 1.5 TH/s machine.

[rampalija]

Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now


guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..

I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this

They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.

with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.

I agree with you, about their sales numbers

[World]

User "Hank" wrote an excellent piece on difficulty speculation
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/

[Puppet]

User "Hank" wrote an excellent piece on difficulty speculation
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/

Hank missed a crucial little detail: DnT's list is anything but exhaustive and "??" does not equal zero.

For instance I dont know how many Monarchs BFL is going to ship, but I do know it will very much be a non zero number. There are also no known numbers (and no estimates) for KnC post November, or hashfast post december, Cointerra post January,  but somehow I doubt all these companies will close shop and retire. Particularly for next year, the list should be considered a minimum minimorum, its basically what we know but for the most part it doesnt contain estimates for "known unknowns", let alone unkown unknowns (think 28nm Bitfury chips or similar surprises).

edit: as illustration of my point, here is another "surprise":
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=330665.0

No word yet of what volume they could achieve, but it looks fairly legit and specs are on par with Bitfury.

[crazydownloaded]

I've input all those numbers into my diff estimation spreadsheet to reflect shipping dates of various manufacturers, see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqGoWjATRQK6dE1yTHpydkIwajhhUGF4ZGxFV2FDSVE&usp=sharing
Those estimates are intended to be copy pasted into http://coinplorer.com/Hardware/Simulate (choose "manual difficulty extrapolation") for revenues estimates.
The spreadsheet is intended to be a base on which you can add/correct your own estimates. I already know that you won't agree with some points, but I had to make decisions
Improvements I could made in the spreadsheet or the estimates are more than welcome

[Dabs]

What's the summary?

2.1B difficulty by end of December 31, 2013?
3B by end of January 31, 2014?
4B by end of February 28, 2014?

35 PH/s = 5 B difficulty?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well it looks like Cointerra will miss.  Hashfast is unknown.  Not sure how much of KNC Nov run is left but I would guess it is mostly complete.  My guestimate was ~2 PH/s and we saw a nice bump from 5 PH/s to > 7 PH/s between 5 DEC and today.   My assumption is most of that is KNC "Nov run".  If Hashfast misses we probably are going to come in under 1.8 PH by end of year.

Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle.  I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.

I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely.  Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess.  January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February.  If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely.  If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple.  Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
  

[Dabs]

Okay. Thanks. That's sort of re-assuring. Wouldn't want to buy any of these miners if difficulty goes beyond 5 billion.

[Clayce]

Well it looks like Cointerra will miss.  Hashfast is unknown.  Not sure how much of KNC Nov run is left but I would guess it is mostly complete.  My guestimate was ~2 PH/s and we saw a nice bump from 5 PH/s to > 7 PH/s between 5 DEC and today.   My assumption is most of that is KNC "Nov run".  If Hashfast misses we probably are going to come in under 1.8 PH by end of year.

Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle.  I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.

I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely.  Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess.  January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February.  If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely.  If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple.  Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
  

With those difficulty estimates, what would you say 1TH could mine (per month), by say April-May? If you estimate the diff @ 4billion by April, that should be alittle over 3btc per month. How far off do you think this is??