Miner break even price points. Do you think this will effect the market?

[johnyj]

In my other thread someone suggested that since mining is a way many people first get into Bitcoin that an increase in the price of mining each coin could increase Bitcoin market price. I think its definitely a plausible theory. The steady flow of new investors who would normally buy equipment are instead going to buy Bitcoins directly as long as the market price is less than the price per Bitcoin from hardware manufacturers.

There are two problems with this idea.

• First, the demand for bitcoins is the same whether the person chooses to buy them or mine them.
• Second, the cost of mining will never exceed the value of the mined bitcoins (at least in a rational world). This discontinuity breaks any dependency of price on cost of production.
  

The idea that the cost of mining determines the value of the bitcoins is essentially the Labor Theory of Value. This theory doesn't apply to bitcoins because the supply of new bitcoins is unaffected by the cost of mining. For example, the relative values of apples and oranges depend on the cost to grow them because if increasing costs cut into profits of one, then farmers will grow the other instead. The varying supplies create an equilibrium around the cost of production. However, it doesn't matter how much or how little it costs to mine bitcoins. The supply of new bitcoins is predetermined and unaffected by production costs.

Finally, you can't overlook the fact that Bitcoins aren't consumed. The supply of bitcoins at this point is overwhelmingly determined by the bitcoins that are already in circulation.

My market research showed that many people want to get coins, only a few want to sell, the supply and demand is very imbalanced

Even so, people would still select the cheapest means to get coins. Investing in mining rigs is an efficient way, so we did not see a lot of buying order on market (the capitals went into mining devices). But if difficulty rose to a level that investing in mining rigs will bring almost no return, those investors will back to exchange and buy coins

So, the cost of mining does not affect the supply and demand, but it will affect the capital flow, which in turn affect the market price

[odolvlobo]

... but it can act as a floor (elastic lower bound) to the price during down swings. ...

If the value of a bitcoin drops, then people stop mining and that lowers the cost of mining. In other words, if the price drops, then so does your "floor".

Even so, people would still select the cheapest means to get coins. Investing in mining rigs is an efficient way, so we did not see a lot of buying order on market (the capitals went into mining devices). But if difficulty rose to a level that investing in mining rigs will bring almost no return, those investors will back to exchange and buy coins

If more people start mining because it is cheaper to get coins that way, then the cost of mining goes up until it is no longer cheaper. I'll concede that there might be inelastic responses or inefficiencies that temporarily cause the price of a bitcoin to be influenced by mining cost. But overall, mining cost is determined by the price of a bitcoin and not the other way around.

And just like marcus_of_augustus said, the cost of mining act as a reference of the coins exchange rate (if the cost is higher than price of the coin, miners will shutdown rigs and buy coin directly, their buy will raise the price)

If miners stop mining and buy coins directly, then it makes obtaining coins through mining cheaper. The two must cancel each other because the demand does not change. The supply is unaffected, so the price does not change.

[xxjs]

The cost of mining does not determine the price of the coins at any time, they are probably not correlated at all ... but it can act as a floor (elastic lower bound) to the price during down swings. This is an important dynamic to keep in mind, so doing the kind of calcs as in the OP are useful (and worthwhile), although doing them properly is becoming ever more complex with hardware evolution (ASICs), decreasing supply/total btc ratio amongst other factors.

Not even that. Price first, cost after.

[johnyj]

If miners stop mining and buy coins directly, then it makes obtaining coins through mining cheaper. The two must cancel each other because the demand does not change. The supply is unaffected, so the price does not change.

Long term wise, the demand is rising every year, the supply is shrinking every year. People have much more fiat money than bitcoin, the fiat money inflow will not stop in the foreseeable future, price will rise forever and the mining cost roughly decided how fast it will rise