I bought serveral bitcoin around 14, and had more USD hold

[qikaifu]

A solid bottom need every doubter sell out there asset, no matter the asset is bitcoin or stock. The sign of the doubter-out is that the trading volume is extremely low.

The volume is pretty low today, but not low enough compared with some days months ago. Such kind of cold lonely boring market should be last longer, and hopefully more small crashes happen, which will consolidate the bottom of the next rally, and give patient traders nice price to open their long positions.

And some early adopters have large bitcoin hold in hand, I speculate that they already want to USD out a lot of them. I guess, these bitcoin must up to 10k -100k.  If the market is too excited and give them the chance to leave the game with high price, the buy power of the people or momentum will exhaust too soon, then I just won't participate in next rally move, and I will start to sold the bitcoins step by step. If this boring flat market is long enough, The big sellers will lost their patient and hope, and will possibly start to sell, at a low price, which is caused by themselves. In this case, the bottom of the market will be even stronger, when next rally begins, I will hold my bitcoin with firm hands.

 If the market just start rally from now, I will speculate that lots of doubters still with bitcoins in hand, the rally just won't last long and high, so I will sell lots of (not all, of course) the bitcoin step by step.

---
Only speculative opinions.
I have both bitcoins and USD. Make decision by yourselves.

[1714002551]

1714002551

[philipk]

Hi Qikaifu,

I just got into BitCoin a few days ago.

I'm interested in buying some BitCoins to redistribute among a group of friends at a slightly higher rate.

Do you think we are about to see a rally?

[Bitcoin Swami]

Hi Qikaifu,

I just got into BitCoin a few days ago.

I'm interested in buying some BitCoins to redistribute among a group of friends at a slightly higher rate.

Do you think we are about to see a rally?

I think he is the wrong person to ask.   Actually you shouldn't take anyone's advice on here. lol

[error]

[S3052]

there are some valid points here.

However , our analysis shows that we have already seen some capitulation at the 11$ bottom last week.

Now BTC are already in stronger hands as you can see in the sideways, bullish consolidation flag.

[qikaifu]

Hi Qikaifu,

I just got into BitCoin a few days ago.

I'm interested in buying some BitCoins to redistribute among a group of friends at a slightly higher rate.

Do you think we are about to see a rally?

In the long-term, I bet strongly there will be a huge rally for the bitcoin. The problem is that the bitcoin is not still a 1 million market cap. game with thousands of geeky persons involved, it's already a 100 million market cap. game with tens of thousands of person involved. the price have rise too fast to be sunstainable at such a rate.

The distribution among  the early adopters of bitcoin is high in the extent of inequality. I don't see this is some moral problem, but only a trading problem. for some adopters, there assets has appreciated for 3000 fold now. so, some of them has showed the signs of willing of selling some of the bitcoin they have. First, they are human beings and have/want to have some fiat money for daily use nowadays;  Second, even they sold 10k bitcoins, considering the number of bitcoin they have and the potential of bitcoin, it will not hurt them much to sell at the right stage. I guess the total number of those big holders want to sell now is around 10k - 100k.

and lots of the new adopters in the last two months, lots of them are weak believers, they were somehow scared by the market volatility. they don't have true believe in the bitcoin. It's time consuming to have them lost patient and hope to sell the bitcoin.

the major wave of media penetration has past. the speed of growth of new adopters are somehow slow down compared with last two month, until several critical improvement in the infrastructure of the bitcoin payment system.

For these pressures, the bitcoin market won't see a major rally in the coming days or weeks. So I think the best strategy is to suggest your friend to have a total investment number in mind, and invest the money in a dollar averaging manner. Suppose that your friend want invest in $ 2000, they just divide them into $200, and buy in bitcoin for ten times. every purchase should be made when an adjustment happened, like what we recently see from 15.5 to 14.

When the doubters out, some improvement of the payment system made, a new stage of rally begins.

[philipk]

I just bought my first 10.9BC @ 13.66CAD

I'm actually just trying to get a group of friends to buy small amounts directly from me at the moment.

But I hope to keep investing a little bit from my pay check every 2 weeks.

[qikaifu]

I've read your analysis, it's pretty good. I agree with you that the market is in a consolidation, but I think it will take longer time.

It's not very convenient  for people to adopt bitcoin, you know. I still have to find the shit wallet.dat in a very weird file folder to backup my wallet.dat. It's totally nightmare for average users.  Hopefully the next release will have much much better user interface and safe wallet solutions, after 2 years of development and 500k+ usd of loss of accident.

No need to mention other problems waiting to solve. Yes, it's growth pain, but we need time. So, the price of bitcoin won't start to rally before some really hard time.

I will hold my bitcoins and dollars, waiting for nice opportunities.

[RenegadeMind]

BUMP!

I just bought my first 10.9BC @ 13.66CAD

That was 5 years ago.

Anyone up for a 50x increase in 5 years? I'm patient.

[zimmah]

the funny thing is that he is complaining about 'early adopters' in 2011.

nobody had even heard of bitcoin back then.

[Blitzboy]

They are lucky that they are the first people know this bitcoin.. if i am lucky before  when i was in college maybe i still holding those bitcoin until now.. and i just using some of my invested bitcoin to use in trade..

[Svelto]

Hi Qikaifu,

I just got into BitCoin a few days ago.

I'm interested in buying some BitCoins to redistribute among a group of friends at a slightly higher rate.

Do you think we are about to see a rally?

bitcoin... why use capital letter?

by the way the best choice is wait and wait... behind there is math and not a ponzi