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Author Topic: Exchanges drying up, effect?  (Read 2521 times)
oda.krell
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September 02, 2013, 02:34:19 PM
 #21

I love how no-one is predicting a more banal outcome. The dynamics are in a balanced, resting state at some combination of pertinent variables, and yet everyone's either saying "CRASH!!!!1" or "SPIKE!!!!!!?". How about a damp squib? September ends at ~$130? I wonder....

After reading a number of your posts in the past week or so you almost made it to my ignore list. Good thing I didn't. +1 for non-black/white thinking. (same for the common "in 10 years, a coin will either be worth MILLIONS, or NOTHING!!!" slogan)

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dexX7
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September 03, 2013, 01:31:42 AM
 #22

We're looking at the same data I guess, but I see it differently. Bid/ask ratio, normalized wrt curent price (something that the wonderful coinorama.net does automatically), the ratio steadily went up throughout August, from 0.5 to a peak of a bit above 1 on August 31st, then declining back to an 0.8-ish value that was the peak value a few days before, higher than almost all of previous August. Then it stabilized, slowly gaining (at around 0.83 now).

Thanks for the resource! Looking at the historical ratio, this does indeed provide a different result.

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September 03, 2013, 01:43:46 AM
 #23

Much of what's going on reflects lack of liquidity.  Nobody can get USD out of Mt. Gox. So a dollar stuck on Mt. Gox is worth less than a dollar outside it. This generates a spread between Mt. Gox and the other exchanges.

People on Mt. Gox with USD can buy Bitcoins at a premium and try to sell them elsewhere. But that pushes up prices on other exchanges, all of which are rather thinly traded. How much of the recent runup in Bitcoin merely reflects how hard it is to get out of Bitcoins right now?
erk
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September 03, 2013, 02:20:10 AM
 #24

Market sentiment determines the general direction, buy, sell, hold, not the price, bots care about price, because they can't sense market sentiment.

When BTC rises in price on Gox, it's because there is more USD to spend on each BTC, simple supply vs demand.  It doesn't matter if it's caused by a shortage of BTC or a surplus of USD the result is similar.

There are a lot of people holding LTC atm looking for the pot of gold at the end of the Gox rainbow. This reduces general liquidity. If Gox had said we are not adding LTC this year, then it's reasonable to assume that overall crypto trade would improve as the need to hold LTC would disappear somewhat.

move_zig
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September 05, 2013, 04:17:10 PM
 #25

Apart from a few 'whale buys' there's not much action / volume lately. The price rising on low volume is not a good indicator for continued rises.

If you are looking at the volume traded in terms of USD, the volume looks about as high as it was during the initial run-up from mid-January to March

Walsoraj
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September 05, 2013, 04:30:40 PM
 #26

Apart from a few 'whale buys' there's not much action / volume lately. The price rising on low volume is not a good indicator for continued rises.

If you are looking at the volume traded in terms of USD, the volume looks about as high as it was during the initial run-up from mid-January to March


Which is precisely why looking at volume in THAT way is foolish.
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September 05, 2013, 04:30:59 PM
 #27

Much of what's going on reflects lack of liquidity.  Nobody can get USD out of Mt. Gox. So a dollar stuck on Mt. Gox is worth less than a dollar outside it. This generates a spread between Mt. Gox and the other exchanges.

People on Mt. Gox with USD can buy Bitcoins at a premium and try to sell them elsewhere. But that pushes up prices on other exchanges, all of which are rather thinly traded. How much of the recent runup in Bitcoin merely reflects how hard it is to get out of Bitcoins right now?

You got it backwards, people buying on gox and selling other places pushes the price DOWN on the other exchanges and the price UP on gox.

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move_zig
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September 05, 2013, 04:34:43 PM
 #28

Apart from a few 'whale buys' there's not much action / volume lately. The price rising on low volume is not a good indicator for continued rises.

If you are looking at the volume traded in terms of USD, the volume looks about as high as it was during the initial run-up from mid-January to March


Which is precisely why looking at volume in THAT way is foolish.

Could you explain more?

It seems to me that people only have so much USD to move around. If the price of bitcoin doubles and the amount of USD traded stays the same, I'd say the volume traded is constant.
Itcher
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September 05, 2013, 04:50:04 PM
 #29

Apart from a few 'whale buys' there's not much action / volume lately. The price rising on low volume is not a good indicator for continued rises.

If you are looking at the volume traded in terms of USD, the volume looks about as high as it was during the initial run-up from mid-January to March


Which is precisely why looking at volume in THAT way is foolish.

Could you explain more?

It seems to me that people only have so much USD to move around. If the price of bitcoin doubles and the amount of USD traded stays the same, I'd say the volume traded is constant.

I think so too. You can't demand volumen in bitcoin grows with the price, cause there is a restricted number of coins.

And what you looked at is just the gox-volumen. If you add the volumen of other exchanges, its much higher than in march.

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