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Author Topic: what position size for martingale?  (Read 1990 times)
gen. specific
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September 02, 2013, 05:15:15 PM
 #1

Hey guys, what position size do you use for martingales

so far I've only ever had a 6x losing streak before I have to switch to random walk, this is because my position size starts out at 1% of the gambling capital

do you guys bet with .5% or even smaller? this would let you get to 7 or 8 losing but it also requires more turns to make any decent winnings, increasing your personal odds of getting a longer losing streak if you haven't encountered it before (although I understand the losing streak can happen at any time since this is all luck)
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uoyeparannog
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September 02, 2013, 09:19:01 PM
 #2

Everything is possible with long Martini session. Not only bet size matters, but also - according to Deep Math - amount of "rolls" (vide CPC). Usualy I use even as low bet as 0.01% of bankroll. IMO Martini is bad choice for long run, like all other progression-based systems by the way.

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September 02, 2013, 09:21:01 PM
 #3

I have had 12 or 13 losing streak.
I start with a few satoshi. (1 - 10)



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BetWithCoins
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September 02, 2013, 10:41:19 PM
 #4

I start on 6, and have enough to cover 18 streak

18 streak is 2^18 so nearly 1:250,000

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September 02, 2013, 10:59:40 PM
 #5

ZERO.  Roll Eyes

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September 03, 2013, 01:56:30 AM
 #6

Lost over 30x in a row.  Welcome to earth lol

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September 03, 2013, 05:52:35 AM
 #7

Quote
18 streak is 2^18 so nearly 1:250,000
Odds for 18 loses streak assumung that win chance is 50% is exactly 0.0003814697265625%. Anyway, that's odds for streak within 18 tries. Relyin on that simple math for 1000 or so series is - plainly - stupid. If You'll bust after 18 loses in row and each "roll" gives You 50% win chance, within 1000 "rolls" You'll be busted for 0.19% (cool anyway), within 10 000 rolls - 1.89%, within 100 000 rolls (if using some bots or so) - 17.36%. How much rolls You made? (by roll I mean single game).

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September 03, 2013, 06:18:41 AM
 #8

I saw a streak of 20 losses yesterday at 49.5% chance to win per roll.

It happened on Just-Dice, so I know the rolls are fair (I wrote the code).

Luckily the player was able to afford a 21st roll, and ended up winning:


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September 03, 2013, 06:21:45 AM
 #9

If you look closely doog, obviously this user could not FULLY afford the 21st bet, thus losing a couple bitcents still. Lucky all in bet congrats to that user, probably got the blood rushing.

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September 03, 2013, 07:11:04 AM
 #10

If you look closely doog, obviously this user could not FULLY afford the 21st bet, thus losing a couple bitcents still. Lucky all in bet congrats to that user, probably got the blood rushing.

Oh yeah, I hadn't noticed.

Check the timestamps too - that last bet was an hour and a half later than the other 20.

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September 03, 2013, 01:39:14 PM
 #11

Bot probably crashed.

BEEP BEP
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September 03, 2013, 03:39:45 PM
 #12

Martingale is absolutely dangerous to play.

I´m looking for a way to play with it securely until now without success.
We know that when you have a big bankroll you increase your chances of have a return of your last bet. But, if the lucky is against you may lost but a huge part (when not all) of your bankroll trying to do the last recovery bet.

Even, if probability shows you have for example a extremely low probability for a loosing strike of 18 bets (0,00038% (1/ 2^18)), the true is that it may happens. And when it happens you are loosing not all but 65% of you whole capital. It Is disastrous and painful.

More advices and tips on Martingale is welcome

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September 04, 2013, 06:54:43 AM
 #13

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More advices and tips on Martingale is welcome
Change system. Martingale will eat Your soul and money almost always - it's good only for short sessions. Try some non-progressive (or less "damaging" progressive) beting system. Labouchere is very good to make small profits with very low risk, d'Alembert often leads to loses, but if You know when to stop it's good too. Even Fibonacci leads to profit near Martingale with lower risk (anyway risk is still bit big). Just several examples - explore, learn and do some science.

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September 05, 2013, 01:15:24 AM
 #14

If you have an unlimited bankroll with no betting limits theoretically you can dig yourself out of a hole if you go on a ridiculous losing streak on the martingale system.

In reality though, using the martingale system on any type of gambling carries risk because not everyone has an unlimited bankroll, and many betting sites or casinos will eventually limit your stakes.
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September 06, 2013, 05:04:00 AM
 #15

I saw a streak of 20 losses yesterday at 49.5% chance to win per roll.

It happened on Just-Dice, so I know the rolls are fair (I wrote the code).

Luckily the player was able to afford a 21st roll, and ended up winning:



Seeing so many 9x, the best game here would have been to bet over 99 all those rounds, for a 200x gain.
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September 06, 2013, 05:11:18 AM
 #16

If you have an unlimited bankroll with no betting limits theoretically you can dig yourself out of a hole if you go on a ridiculous losing streak on the martingale system.

In reality though, using the martingale system on any type of gambling carries risk because not everyone has an unlimited bankroll, and many betting sites or casinos will eventually limit your stakes.

Every casino will eventually limit your stakes.  There are only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoins.  It only takes 25 doubles to get from 1 BTC to over 21 million BTC.  People don't have a good feel for how quickly "doubling" makes a number big.

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September 06, 2013, 09:52:49 AM
 #17

Super martingale Roll Eyes
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December 12, 2016, 10:08:53 PM
 #18

I saw a streak of 20 losses yesterday at 49.5% chance to win per roll.

It happened on Just-Dice, so I know the rolls are fair (I wrote the code).

Luckily the player was able to afford a 21st roll, and ended up winning:



Whenever I encounter 10-12 straight reds, my mouse suffers. I think if I encounter this 20reds, I wont be able to move even an inch of my muscle.

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December 13, 2016, 08:27:35 AM
 #19

And if you need to martingale, have the decency of doing at least 2.1x instead of the classic 2x.
It doesn't seem to change a lot, but in reality with long martingale it has its effects.
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December 13, 2016, 01:04:01 PM
 #20

Lost over 30x in a row.  Welcome to earth lol

i loss in over than 7 times in a row but only make small winning with small money. i guess i really need my luck to win the money. but maybe i will trying in the other days and i hope my luck is working like the others.

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