Bitcoin Forum
December 17, 2017, 11:29:40 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: 我的私人投资基金  (Read 23559 times)
bziytjctocintalk2013
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28


View Profile
September 15, 2013, 02:26:11 AM
 #81

这个也算是投资之一哈:
https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=125

LetsDice.com - The only dice site to actually contain dice!
~~~~
Low house edge, big jackpots, referral bonuses, and more! (https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=22)
If you want to be a moderator, report many posts with accuracy. You will be noticed.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1513553380
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513553380

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513553380
Reply with quote  #2

1513553380
Report to moderator
1513553380
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513553380

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513553380
Reply with quote  #2

1513553380
Report to moderator
meelook
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 115



View Profile
September 15, 2013, 03:08:49 AM
 #82

这个也算是投资之一哈:
https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=125

请问这个要如何投资
001sonkit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


Casper - A failed entrepenuer who looks like Zhou


View Profile WWW
September 15, 2013, 03:37:27 AM
 #83

貼下線鏈接的跑開一邊。

chicobr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 251



View Profile
September 15, 2013, 04:12:18 AM
 #84

Hi,

Here is my invitation link for LetsDice!
https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=614

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
  TRADE.IO       ║     WHITEPAPER  •  ANN THREAD  •  TELEGRAM     ║     JOIN THE TRADING REVOLUTION
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
001sonkit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


Casper - A failed entrepenuer who looks like Zhou


View Profile WWW
September 15, 2013, 06:04:41 AM
 #85

If you think that I have inability on reading English you are absolutely wrong. This post is for investments not for your own F_ken sake by having every asshole in your downline. Spam your own family and relatives before spamming on anywhere this forum and stop being a jerk.

This is NOT A POST for people being downline in a pyramid scheme or whatsoever. GTFO

Keven
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 285



View Profile
September 15, 2013, 01:34:35 PM
 #86

there are 1,36M minable coins per year, with assumption of zero rise in difficulty (difficulty rises because there are more than 2016 blocks in 2 weeks) and with assumption of zero fees. Also - selling business uses coins that are already mined. Stop spreading bullshit, please.

1) Sorry if ~1M was too inaccurate. 1.36M it is.

2) There is nothing to suggest that fees will be a substantial part of the equation. If fees do become a substantial part of the equation within the next couple of years, it will probably be because Bitcoin has become mainstream, and AM will not yet be ready to compete with companies like Intel or IBM if that happens.

3) "Also - selling business uses coins that are already mined" - I'm not sure what this means. If you think people are going to intentionally buy hardware at a loss, you're kidding yourself. Using a hardware sales based business model REDUCES potential revenue.

If we assume the simple model that AM attains and maintains 20% of the hashrate for another year, at an average of 75% margin (excellent and unlikely, in my opinion), drops to 30% profit margin (still maintaining 20% of the hashrate) for the year following, and to 20% margin for the next 8 years (again, at 20%), this is the breakdown of total BTC profit (remember that the block reward halves in approximately 3 years, then again approximately 4 years after that, and again 3 years after that):

Year 1: 0.2 * 0.75 * 1.36M = 0.204M
Year 2: 0.2 * 0.3 * 1.36M = 0.0816M
Year 3: 0.2 * 0.2 * 1.36M = 0.0544M
Year 4-7: 4 * 0.2 * 0.2 * 1.36M/2 = 0.1088M
Year 8-10: 3 * 0.2 * 0.2 * 1.36M/4 = 0.0408M

Net profit, ten years forward (reasonable estimate of fair market cap for most companies): 0.4896M BTC = 489.6k BTC

Current market cap: ~2.25 * 400000 = ~900000 BTC

Market cap at my price target of 1.5 BTC: 1.5 * 400000 = 600000 BTC

So you can see I'm actually modestly optimistic.

This model excludes transaction fees, as I believe they will either be negligible or accompanied by stiffer competition. You can adjust it with your own projections if you desire.
以上是我今天看到一个叫Vycid的给烤猫做的估值。引用他一句很精彩的话: If you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.
之前我对AM估值3.3BTC目前看来太过乐观了。


I love invest.
+EV all the time.
我的私人投资基金:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286866.0
001sonkit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


Casper - A failed entrepenuer who looks like Zhou


View Profile WWW
September 15, 2013, 02:10:13 PM
 #87

不过上述的“assumption”是预计烤猫矿场速度能够保持,现在集Bitmine CoinTerra BGarden之类的都一同加入战场研发耗电量更少的晶片,对比烤猫的技术程度,猫猫被淘汰的速度在年尾会快速增长。

EDIT:不要忘记PT股的差价

zwh888666@gmail.com
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21


View Profile
September 15, 2013, 03:01:13 PM
 #88

對,要一樣的。有問題找 admin@glados.cc (他不懂中文的)

2个网站客服都发邮件了,可是还没一个回的。
我叫TF找你了,看看PM里頭有沒有叫TradeFortress的人或是看看你的Email有沒有新郵件
收到邮件了,让我重新注册个inputsio账号,和cl一致的,然后给我个10 btc voucher,已经搞定了!
001sonkit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


Casper - A failed entrepenuer who looks like Zhou


View Profile WWW
September 15, 2013, 03:58:57 PM
 #89

收到邮件了,让我重新注册个inputsio账号,和cl一致的,然后给我个10 btc voucher,已经搞定了!
Cheesy

Ireson
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 9


View Profile
September 16, 2013, 04:46:39 AM
 #90

学习
smitelrh
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 63


View Profile
September 16, 2013, 07:43:22 AM
 #91

学习,现在基本放在BD投资,风险可能有点大,先观察一下,JD盘子太大了,收益比较低了
Keven
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 285



View Profile
September 16, 2013, 10:26:20 AM
 #92

存入796交易所13.54BTC(大部分是帮他人买入并保管的比特币),共借到796Xchange-MRI 55股 并卖出,四周利息0.8%(0.0462BTC)。

不管是从哪一方面看,796都高估很多,11万BTC的市值就算跌掉一半我都觉得贵,做空没什么压力。但这是我第一次做空,所以先投入一点币熟悉下流程。长期来看我希望投入大概15%的资金用来做空股票。

问题有以下几点:

1, 55股并不是一次操作就借到的。借四周只能借到抵押的比特币价值30%的股票,13.54*30%=4.062,按当时股价借到38股,然后卖出这38股,变成币,再借入12股```4股```1股,合计55股。感觉这样好麻烦,796就不能简化一下?

2, 抵押率太高,使得做空收益率较低。比如我投入的13.54个币,只借到市值大概6.05BTC的股票,就算股价跌掉50%,毛收益率6.05*0.5/13.54=22.3%。假如需要一年实现,还要减去利息0.0462(四周利息)*12/13.54=4.1%,一年收益率18.2%。

3, 必须按时还款还股票,超过6天就会被没收所有投资的本金。796的这个规定让我压力很大,万一还款期到时正好碰到点意外,或者忘记,本钱就全送796了。

综合来看,吸引力不大。

I love invest.
+EV all the time.
我的私人投资基金:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286866.0
smitelrh
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 63


View Profile
September 16, 2013, 11:11:09 AM
 #93

感觉796的股价是要下来,但可能要点时间可能要比较长,做空时间成本很高
atrax1978
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 26



View Profile
September 18, 2013, 01:16:41 AM
 #94


关于投资的分配,你投资CoinLender 37.76BTC占比62.9%,JD 7.8BTC 占比12.9%。这部分我和你正好相反,大头在JD,小部分CL。我说下我的想法。
JD目前的投注量5,000/d,从历史来看周日比平时多一倍,那每周投注量40,000 现在庄家投资50,000 以此计算预期年收益率是37.44%(40,000*52*0.9%/50,000)。而CL目前的年收益大概25%。投资哪个更划算呢?那要看这两个标的的风险对比。

JD的风险主要有两点:第一是坏运气,我的做法是把预期坐庄优势0.9%(除去网站佣金)降到0.8%,预期年收益还有33.28%; 第二是dooglus卷款跑或资金被盗等风险,这个跟CL差不多,因为现在是对比这两家所以相互抵消就不算了。
CL的风险:TF投资失败,无力偿还我们的钱。这个可能性有多大?3%?我不知道。但从市场上的几支债券大约19%的年利率来看,CL的风险补偿是6%(25%-19%)。我给CL的预期收益率是21%。至于Ponzi等风险,就和dooglus的卷款风险抵消不算。

CL的成功太多依赖于TF的成功经营与投资上,而JD只依赖于dooglus的信誉,并不需要多么高超的能力。我认为JD的风险比CL低,预期收益更高,所以更多地投在JD。
[/quote]

老五的这个分析理念真的非常不错。
atrax1978
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 26



View Profile
September 18, 2013, 02:51:14 AM
 #95

對,要一樣的。有問題找 admin@glados.cc (他不懂中文的)

001sonkit很不错,看你的帖子也解答了我很多疑问,谢谢!
kmtan
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


I love Bitcoin


View Profile
September 18, 2013, 03:00:58 AM
 #96

存入796交易所13.54BTC(大部分是帮他人买入并保管的比特币),共借到796Xchange-MRI 55股 并卖出,四周利息0.8%(0.0462BTC)。

不管是从哪一方面看,796都高估很多,11万BTC的市值就算跌掉一半我都觉得贵,做空没什么压力。但这是我第一次做空,所以先投入一点币熟悉下流程。长期来看我希望投入大概15%的资金用来做空股票。

问题有以下几点:

1, 55股并不是一次操作就借到的。借四周只能借到抵押的比特币价值30%的股票,13.54*30%=4.062,按当时股价借到38股,然后卖出这38股,变成币,再借入12股```4股```1股,合计55股。感觉这样好麻烦,796就不能简化一下?

2, 抵押率太高,使得做空收益率较低。比如我投入的13.54个币,只借到市值大概6.05BTC的股票,就算股价跌掉50%,毛收益率6.05*0.5/13.54=22.3%。假如需要一年实现,还要减去利息0.0462(四周利息)*12/13.54=4.1%,一年收益率18.2%。

3, 必须按时还款还股票,超过6天就会被没收所有投资的本金。796的这个规定让我压力很大,万一还款期到时正好碰到点意外,或者忘记,本钱就全送796了。

综合来看,吸引力不大。

keven, 你太专业了,我还真没有想过还有这样的操作方式。。学习了。谢谢

zwh888666@gmail.com
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21


View Profile
September 21, 2013, 03:18:01 PM
 #97


关于投资的分配,你投资CoinLender 37.76BTC占比62.9%,JD 7.8BTC 占比12.9%。这部分我和你正好相反,大头在JD,小部分CL。我说下我的想法。
JD目前的投注量5,000/d,从历史来看周日比平时多一倍,那每周投注量40,000 现在庄家投资50,000 以此计算预期年收益率是37.44%(40,000*52*0.9%/50,000)。而CL目前的年收益大概25%。投资哪个更划算呢?那要看这两个标的的风险对比。

JD的风险主要有两点:第一是坏运气,我的做法是把预期坐庄优势0.9%(除去网站佣金)降到0.8%,预期年收益还有33.28%; 第二是dooglus卷款跑或资金被盗等风险,这个跟CL差不多,因为现在是对比这两家所以相互抵消就不算了。
CL的风险:TF投资失败,无力偿还我们的钱。这个可能性有多大?3%?我不知道。但从市场上的几支债券大约19%的年利率来看,CL的风险补偿是6%(25%-19%)。我给CL的预期收益率是21%。至于Ponzi等风险,就和dooglus的卷款风险抵消不算。

CL的成功太多依赖于TF的成功经营与投资上,而JD只依赖于dooglus的信誉,并不需要多么高超的能力。我认为JD的风险比CL低,预期收益更高,所以更多地投在JD。

老五的这个分析理念真的非常不错。
[/quote]

从今天中午来看,投资jd风险太大,遇到赌神这样资金几乎无限的家伙,迟早会被他赢走不少,这2天庄家盈利从5、6千变成2000多了!还好我今天中午几乎最高点撤资,前2天亏损回来还有赚的,差不多有半年预期利润了。现在不敢投jd了,转到CL去。
jinyoubei
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 83



View Profile
September 21, 2013, 08:57:05 PM
 #98

赌神。。。现在貌似有传说赌神其实是。。。JD的老板?
pinoye
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 19


View Profile
September 21, 2013, 11:14:03 PM
 #99

他出马下注的时候哗啦啦把庄里的钱赢过来,大家纷纷把投在庄里的资金抽走。
等他不下注自己坐庄的时候,就剩下他的资金在那里了。
这样一来,只能他是老板啦。
Keven
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 285



View Profile
September 22, 2013, 12:24:28 AM
 #100


关于投资的分配,你投资CoinLender 37.76BTC占比62.9%,JD 7.8BTC 占比12.9%。这部分我和你正好相反,大头在JD,小部分CL。我说下我的想法。
JD目前的投注量5,000/d,从历史来看周日比平时多一倍,那每周投注量40,000 现在庄家投资50,000 以此计算预期年收益率是37.44%(40,000*52*0.9%/50,000)。而CL目前的年收益大概25%。投资哪个更划算呢?那要看这两个标的的风险对比。

JD的风险主要有两点:第一是坏运气,我的做法是把预期坐庄优势0.9%(除去网站佣金)降到0.8%,预期年收益还有33.28%; 第二是dooglus卷款跑或资金被盗等风险,这个跟CL差不多,因为现在是对比这两家所以相互抵消就不算了。
CL的风险:TF投资失败,无力偿还我们的钱。这个可能性有多大?3%?我不知道。但从市场上的几支债券大约19%的年利率来看,CL的风险补偿是6%(25%-19%)。我给CL的预期收益率是21%。至于Ponzi等风险,就和dooglus的卷款风险抵消不算。

CL的成功太多依赖于TF的成功经营与投资上,而JD只依赖于dooglus的信誉,并不需要多么高超的能力。我认为JD的风险比CL低,预期收益更高,所以更多地投在JD。

老五的这个分析理念真的非常不错。

从今天中午来看,投资jd风险太大,遇到赌神这样资金几乎无限的家伙,迟早会被他赢走不少,这2天庄家盈利从5、6千变成2000多了!还好我今天中午几乎最高点撤资,前2天亏损回来还有赚的,差不多有半年预期利润了。现在不敢投jd了,转到CL去。
[/quote]
资金量大的赌神能够让盈利波动大,没有迟早赢走不少这一说。除非他能提前知道下注结果,否则他的每一次下注都是-1%的EV。
这是波动,不管波动多大,都不会改变坐庄赢下注额的0.9%这个预期。

I love invest.
+EV all the time.
我的私人投资基金:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286866.0
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!