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Author Topic: Why is the bitcoin price being held from dropping below $14?  (Read 2494 times)
grod
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July 14, 2011, 03:11:44 PM
 #21

The number of entities with the ability to short 10B worth of any currency is highly limited.  In fact, I could probably enumerate all of them without trying too hard.  They are statistical noise when talking trading population.

The number of entities with the ability to short $300k worth of bitcoins dwarfs the current ~6000 bitcoin traders.

Greenmail using government backed currencies tends to destabilize efforts of those governments, and they take a dim view of this.  Dim governments with a monopoly on force, courts and jails are why an even smaller % of the entities with the means to do so would.

Greenmail in the BTC market is absolutely risk free.

So, not the same thing.  Comparing BTC trading to currency trading is a stretched analogy at best.
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Piper67
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July 14, 2011, 03:15:07 PM
 #22

The number of entities with the ability to short 10B worth of any currency is highly limited.  In fact, I could probably enumerate all of them without trying too hard.  They are statistical noise when talking trading population.

The number of entities with the ability to short $300k worth of bitcoins dwarfs the current ~6000 bitcoin traders.

Greenmail using government backed currencies tends to destabilize efforts of those governments, and they take a dim view of this.  Dim governments with a monopoly on force, courts and jails are why an even smaller % of the entities with the means to do so would.

Greenmail in the BTC market is absolutely risk free.

So, not the same thing.  Comparing BTC trading to currency trading is a stretched analogy at best.

Yet another reason why the price of BTC should not be kept artificially low... the higher it goes, the harder it will become for any one entity to throw the whole market into a spin.
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July 14, 2011, 03:26:20 PM
 #23

Looks like the $14 support was finally broken. There is a large bid wall (9,000 bitcoins) at $13.5. SInce it has been holding in the $13 range, it should continue its fall until it hits the $13.5 bid wall. I wonder how long the $13.5 bid wall will hold up.



Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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July 14, 2011, 03:44:16 PM
 #24



We're past the "enthusiasm" and "greed" phases of a bubble. We've had the post-peak bear rally. Now we're in the long, slow slide.

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July 14, 2011, 03:52:03 PM
 #25

Why and Who is holding the market from dropping below $14? It is pretty obvious in the last couple of days that something is trying to hold the price from dropping below $14.

Is this manipulation? Is this bitcoin owners trying to not sell below $14 for fear that the bitcoin will go lower? Is it not manipulation and just the free market think it is worth exactly $14.00099 and not $13.99?



Less than 15 minutes ago there was a large ("fake") buy order at 13.93 for ~750BTC (or maybe a bit more), the order is gone now without even 50 being bought.
https://mtgox.com/code/data/getTrades.php
^^^
The recent trades link will document the lack of major sales at 13.93, but only until newer trades push this time frame off the page

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grod
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July 14, 2011, 03:57:34 PM
 #26


Yet another reason why the price of BTC should not be kept artificially low... the higher it goes, the harder it will become for any one entity to throw the whole market into a spin.

Well, you're almost right.  We need a vastly larger total market cap and a lot more liquidity (maybe even a couple of stable, known market makers) not just a gigantic per BTC price.  A sky high per BTC price in a completely illiquid market would be even worse than the current situation.
grod
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July 14, 2011, 04:04:05 PM
 #27


Less than 15 minutes ago there was a large ("fake") buy order at 13.93 for ~750BTC (or maybe a bit more), the order is gone now without even 50 being bought.
https://mtgox.com/code/data/getTrades.php
^^^
The recent trades link will document the lack of major sales at 13.93, but only until newer trades push this time frame off the page

This is so exciting!  6 more bids to go until we see whether the 9.5k buy wall is real or illusionary.  Looking at the size of the bids looks like people set them up trusting other similar sized bids will not get yanked.  Wonder how many people are currently getting SMS messages on their phone telling them to check their order. =)
Piper67
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July 14, 2011, 04:11:06 PM
 #28


Yet another reason why the price of BTC should not be kept artificially low... the higher it goes, the harder it will become for any one entity to throw the whole market into a spin.

Well, you're almost right.  We need a vastly larger total market cap and a lot more liquidity (maybe even a couple of stable, known market makers) not just a gigantic per BTC price.  A sky high per BTC price in a completely illiquid market would be even worse than the current situation.


True, but I doubt we'd ever see an absolute lack of liquidity if the price were allowed to rise. There is an almost endless market of people who would love to get their hands on a rising commodity. There will always be miners ready to sell (or at least for long enough as to make no difference). These fake orders are really shooting the whole BTC experiment in the foot.
piramida
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July 14, 2011, 04:12:24 PM
 #29

it does not look like too much people want to sell at this price, anyway. some small sells are triggering the movement now. my prediction - fluctuate to 13.6 region, then go back to 14.x then stabilize back at 14 or even 14.5 depends on how high bulls will take it on rebound.

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Bit_Happy
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July 14, 2011, 04:18:53 PM
 #30


Less than 15 minutes ago there was a large ("fake") buy order at 13.93 for ~750BTC (or maybe a bit more), the order is gone now without even 50 being bought.
https://mtgox.com/code/data/getTrades.php
^^^
The recent trades link will document the lack of major sales at 13.93, but only until newer trades push this time frame off the page

This is so exciting!  6 more bids to go until we see whether the 9.5k buy wall is real or illusionary.  Looking at the size of the bids looks like people set them up trusting other similar sized bids will not get yanked.  Wonder how many people are currently getting SMS messages on their phone telling them to check their order. =)


Much more exciting than yesterday. Smiley

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July 14, 2011, 04:20:29 PM
 #31

or even 14.5 depends on how high bulls will take it on rebound.
No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.
grod
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July 14, 2011, 04:25:21 PM
 #32

or even 14.5 depends on how high bulls will take it on rebound.
No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.

Those are even more fake than the buy walls.  They'll evaporate in a millisecond at the first whiff of capitulation and reversal.  Someone or someones want to spook the market, and they're targeting 6pm eastern US to start doing it.  I'm not the only one thinking one more big panic and we're off to the races, and prevailing current sentiment is just negative enough to pull it off.
piramida
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July 14, 2011, 04:26:09 PM
 #33

No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.

What grod said. Once the pushdown is over, those will just dissapear. See, the idea is to scare people down to 13.5, remove walls, start buying => free money once you sell some at 14.5+.

i am satoshi
Bit_Happy
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July 14, 2011, 04:27:48 PM
 #34

or even 14.5 depends on how high bulls will take it on rebound.
No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.

Yes there are.
Some of those are just trying to break even.
A week ago we had huge support at 14 to 13.80. Then the rallies towards $16 slowly got many people to raise their bids. ~3 days ago there was huge support in that same area ~14.30 to 14.40. Now many of those people would be glad to break even, so there is new resistance.


No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.

What grod said. Once the pushdown is over, those will just dissapear.

Maybe, but not if we go all the way to $10.25. If so many of those orders will be much lower, not higher.

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piramida
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July 14, 2011, 04:33:57 PM
 #35

Maybe, but not if we go all the way to $10.25. If so many of those orders will be much lower, not higher.

I don't think we're going there soon. There was zero volatility for several days, people would be glad to buy off 13.6 to make some money on the move up. It does not look like there's a huge selloff planned, of course you never know for sure, but no warning signs.

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Bit_Happy
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July 14, 2011, 04:46:26 PM
 #36

Maybe, but not if we go all the way to $10.25. If so many of those orders will be much lower, not higher.

I don't think we're going there soon. There was zero volatility for several days, people would be glad to buy off 13.6 to make some money on the move up. It does not look like there's a huge selloff planned, of course you never know for sure, but no warning signs.

No one knows for certain.
The brand new current "realistic high" is 13.94, so $10.25 might become a possible low.


...There was zero volatility for several days,...

zero volatility for several days == Something big is due to happen soon and for now that looks like down, way down, not just $13.50....
I love rallies they are fun, but they happen after a large fall.
The rally up from $11 is now over or not?
^^^
If yes, then we are going way lower fairly soon.



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July 14, 2011, 04:49:33 PM
 #37

No way. There are 23,000BTC worth of sell orders below $14.50.

What grod said. Once the pushdown is over, those will just dissapear. See, the idea is to scare people down to 13.5, remove walls, start buying => free money once you sell some at 14.5+.

Actually I just bought at 13.80, expecting to sell at ~13.91, and at the moment it is not looking too good.
Buy low, this is a great price, Rally time!   Cheesy


Edit:
Someone is selling ~100 at only 13.85, but it is already half gone.......
Back to 13.92 now  Smiley

Edit #2
This was lucky IMO:
BTC sold:  9.00 ฿TC at  ~$13.93500


I still say $10.25 (or $6.50 to $7.50?) is very likely in the near future.

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grod
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July 14, 2011, 04:57:37 PM
 #38



Yes there are.
Some of those are just trying to break even.
A week ago we had huge support at 14 to 13.80. Then the rallies towards $16 slowly got many people to raise their bids. ~3 days ago there was huge support in that same area ~14.30 to 14.40. Now many of those people would be glad to break even, so there is new resistance.


And this, kids, is why there are no billionaire chartists.  Not to pick on you, Happy, I think your very short term TA is exactly right, and basic TA is the only thing applicable to bitcoin.  Hell, I haven't even found anything other than volume to be a reliable indicator to confirm or deny my own charting...  That aside, you also know that fundamentals trump technicals.  And here are the fundamentals.

If you look over the time period you've specified you'll see there are no big volume buys at those prices.  In other words, positions were accumulated very gradually by the small fry.  Those same small fry are NOT going to sell those gradually accumulated BTC in $40,000 and $50,000 blocks at once, all of a sudden at the slightest hint of weakness "hoping to break even."  That's not how the small investor mind works when dealing with numbers that big over a time period this small, and savvy investors are not subject to the same motivations.

In other words, I suspect what you're seeing on the chart is "chart art."  Or early adopters starting to edge closer to the exit.  I could be full of crap, but that's my gut feel -- and until proven otherwise, my right-on-btc-till-now gut is getting my attention.
Bit_Happy
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July 14, 2011, 05:05:36 PM
 #39

....I think your very short term TA is exactly right...

Thanks

...And this, kids, is why there are no billionaire chartists.  Not to pick on you, Happy...

I like both directions, glad to see it's finally moving again.  Smiley

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August 04, 2011, 12:04:07 AM
 #40

Well not being held anymore, freaking 8 bux a coin, that is way way way tooo low for quick money or long term compared to the difficulty to create 1 bitcoin now.  AHHHHH ITS GOING TO 0 SOON

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