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Raulo
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February 24, 2011, 10:27:26 PM
 #61

Dear Raulo,

  With all due respect, I think that your math shows you have some kind of hidden agenda or some kind of tunnel vision. You pick up a specific contract at a specific time and claim that this makes no sense. Even if this is true at this particular time and for this particular contract does not mean that it is true for all available contracts and at all times. It seems that my contracts are much more complex instruments than you were able to comprehend so far based on your posts.

My "hidden agenda" is to have less people who will be disappointed and would think bitcoin is some kind of scam. It's good for everybody. Your agenda is to earn money.

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Please do not insult my customers, they are all very intelligent people from what I can say and are capable making  rational decisions based on much more complex criteria than your trivial math. I do have good reasons to believe that my customers are doing quite well for themselves.

Complex contracts? You must be kidding. The contracts are plain and simple. No rocket science. Your pricing is slightly non-linear. 1 GH/s 3-month contract is as typical as anything. 16GH/s are a bit cheaper but still losing. Any longer contract is worse than 3-months ones because most of the coins will be generated soon before difficulty increase.

Show any scenario where your contracts are winning compared to buying coins on the market. Yes, I know: buying gazzilion GH/s instead of pumping 1 million dollar on the mtgox which would result in price hike. You don't have such capacity, though.

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Vladimir
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February 24, 2011, 10:48:25 PM
 #62

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fornit
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February 24, 2011, 11:10:10 PM
 #63

black-scholes, futures, options, seriously?

both your contracts and just buying bitcoins immediately dont involve any options. you pay, you get something. with your contracts you mostly get it later, but its still not an option.
in my opinion, professional mining isnt viable because so many people just use their normal pcs. no extra investments, no extra maintenance, no extra profit margin. nobody can really compete with that, especially since both the professional and the amateur approach rely on the same hardware, common gpus.
for big investors, it might be different. its easier to buy one of your contracts than buying small scraps of bitcoins on the open market or setting up a big mining operation without much professional knowledge about it. but for the average guy its cheapier to just equip his pc with an expensive graphics card and let it run 24/7.

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February 24, 2011, 11:19:27 PM
 #64

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Raulo
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February 24, 2011, 11:45:32 PM
 #65

 You have no idea about what my capacity is. The only statement I made at some point in the past is that immediately available capacity is sold out or limited (at that point).
Your capacity is lower the the global hashspeed. And actually it does not matter. Even if you had unlimited potential capacity, you'd increase the difficulty with your own hashspeed.

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 You math is faulty because it is simplistic,

Your counter-math is non-existent.

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you obviously have no slightest idea (or prefer not to demonstrate it) about complexities of futures and options pricing and you make assumptions that difficulty will always rise at current extraordinary pace and that price will always stay the same or fall, which is not a very smart things to assume in pricing complex instruments like options and futures many features of which my contracts have. Do you have any idea what Black-Scholes model is? Can you explain it (using your own words not a cut and paste from wikipedia)?

What does it have to do with options? Your are not selling options.  You are selling petahashes which will become unknown number of BTCs depending on future difficulty changes. 

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Would you please be so nice an explain how did you use it in your calculations. If you think that it is not applicable could you please explain why?

Because you are not selling options. Plain and simple. The closest thing to your contracts in the financial world are swaps. You are hedging exchange rate risk and difficulty increase risk compared to your mining solo with your equipment. Your customers bear this risk.


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 I frankly think that you are a troll. If I am wrong on this one please stop acting as one.

Is it enough to disagree with you to become a troll in your eyes or something extra is required?

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 Your statements about my intentions are libellous. You have no factual information to prove that my intentions are solely to earn profit, and unless you can prove that, I suggest you to shut up and consult a lawyer before saying anything else.

Are you doing this business for charity or fun? Seriously? No, for profit. You aren't going to deny it and nobody would believe if you do. Is it wrong? No.

But do I have a right to say your service is not worth the price right now? Hell, yes.

If anything, your statement of my "hidden agenda" is libelous.





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Vladimir
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February 24, 2011, 11:48:56 PM
 #66

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Raulo
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February 25, 2011, 12:51:58 PM
 #67

I do not sell options, but my contracts do have many features of options. My customers do bear some risks as well as corresponding rewards.

What features of options? What option do the customers have? Can they exercise the option?

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I do not have to do counter math. My prices are not based on network difficulty and BTC exchange rate of the moment, it is based on costs of running mining operation commercially.  On the other hand, your math is simplistic and wrong because it ignores many important factors. You avoid my question about using proper models for calculating current "fair price" of my contracts. I do know that proper math if fairly complex, way more complex than what you have offered.

Nobody should care about your mining costs but about their own interest. Right now it is cheaper to buy BTC on the market and no "complex" models present only in your head can change that.

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An opinion (as indicated by words "I think") cannot be libellous, by definition. You just demonstrated again that you do not know what you are talking about, thus losing even more credibility. Please stop trolling in my thread and go away.

So you can say anything and it's OK if you add "I think"? I think you must be kidding.

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Coming on a commercial thread and starting badmouthing a commercial offer is insulting and disrespectful to the merchant and by definition is trolling. If you do not like the offer do not take the offer and move on.

This is a public forum, not your own. I have the same right to write here as you have.

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If you still cannot comprehend this. Try to go to any real life marketplace and start publicly badmouthing merchants and goods and services on offer, particularly using faulty math, before soon you would have to deal with either police, or security, or lawyers, or in some less civilised locations broken limbs.

Are you threatening me with broken limbs here?

And if you run a business you can intimidate anybody not to give a review of your service pricing? It must be very pleasant to do business with you.

P.S I would like to apologize for "people who cannot count" in one my previous post. It was mean and I'm sorry. It should have been "people who have not grasped the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment formula yet". And when they understand it, they are going to be disappointed.

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Vladimir
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February 25, 2011, 01:39:35 PM
 #68

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Vladimir
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February 26, 2011, 10:36:26 AM
 #69

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Syke
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February 27, 2011, 04:38:59 PM
 #70

 My customers who have .125 Ghps contracts get   3.45 BTC/day at the moment. 1Ghps at the moment gives 27.59 BTC/day.
And now with the difficulty at 55590.23763914, 1Ghps gives 18 BTC/day, at a cost of $23/day. That's about $1.28 per BTC, when the open market is selling them for about $.95. Kudos for finding buyers at such a premium price!

Buy & Hold
ribuck
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February 27, 2011, 04:43:24 PM
 #71

Kudos for finding buyers at such a premium price!

You can do it too, if you provide what the customer wants, in the form that the customer wants it.

Water from the tap is almost free, yet my local supermarket sells bottled water at a higher price than coca-cola. Go figure!
Vladimir
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February 27, 2011, 05:06:43 PM
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Syke
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March 10, 2011, 06:32:15 AM
 #73

FYI, a table with expectations of BTC generation for 1 Ghps, for bitcoin difficulty seen recently (daily average):
...
76193 - 13.20 BTC

So for 1031£ you can get 1188 BTC worth about 622£.

Wow.

Buy & Hold
Vladimir
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March 10, 2011, 07:41:01 AM
 #74

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Vladimir
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March 13, 2011, 03:22:11 PM
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Vladimir
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March 22, 2011, 07:48:05 AM
 #76

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Vladimir
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March 25, 2011, 12:42:08 PM
 #77

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Vladimir
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March 27, 2011, 02:56:26 AM
 #78

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Vladimir
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April 02, 2011, 10:53:29 AM
 #79

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Vladimir
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April 04, 2011, 09:50:15 PM
 #80

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