Should I switch to solo mining?

[SoggyMoggy]

Hello everyone,

I've been Bitcoin mining for just over one month using two machines each with three Radeon 5870 cards giving me approximately 2100 Mhash/second over the time period.

I've earn't an average of 1.5BTC per day on Slush's pool.

However, I've found THREE blocks = (3 x 50 BTC).

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/6752/15072011022222.png

After finding the first "golden block" a few weeks ago I thought, "Meh - what are the odds? I'll stay in the pool". Then the second came and I thought, "That's my luck done for the quarter!". When the third came, I'm beginning to seriously reconsider pooled mining in favour of going solo.

My question to you all is this; am I best off staying in Slush' pool, moving to another pool or going solo?

Thanks in advance :-)

[error]

You've been pretty lucky, it seems. Maybe you'll be pretty unlucky for a while after this.

The point of being in a pool is to reduce variance; instead of randomly receiving 50 BTC at virtually unpredictable times, you receive smaller amounts at more predictable times. If you don't mind the variance, then by all means mine solo.

[Leon]

You've been pretty lucky, it seems. Maybe you'll be pretty unlucky for a while after this.

The point of being in a pool is to reduce variance; instead of randomly receiving 50 BTC at virtually unpredictable times, you receive smaller amounts at more predictable times. If you don't mind the variance, then by all means mine solo.

This exactly, I would suggest switching now.. but of course in the "long run" you will always come out making more because you aren't relying on a server to be up 24/7 and you aren't paying any fees.

So you get less downtime and more BTC.. hmm..

[SoggyMoggy]

Thanks error,

I thought so too (that I'd been lucky). I wonder what the odds are of three blocks in a month @ 'only' 2100Mhash/sec. I must say that I don't like the variance, however 150 BTC is *substantially* higher than I've earnt via pooled mining and if I find another block in the next couple of weeks I think I'll go crazy.

As for Slush's, my accepted/rejected block ratio is 2.39% rejected/stale; does that seem about right?

Thanks for your advice.

[twmz]

Thanks error,

I thought so too (that I'd been lucky). I wonder what the odds are of three blocks in a month @ 'only' 2100Mhash/sec. I must say that I don't like the variance, however 150 BTC is *substantially* higher than I've earnt via pooled mining and if I find another block in the next couple of weeks I think I'll go crazy.

As for Slush's, my accepted/rejected block ratio is 2.39% rejected/stale; does that seem about right?

Thanks for your advice.

Use a pool that doesn't tell you how many blocks you found? 

Yes, 2-3% reject rate is about right for slush as it doesn't do long polling.

[SoggyMoggy]

You've been pretty lucky, it seems. Maybe you'll be pretty unlucky for a while after this.

The point of being in a pool is to reduce variance; instead of randomly receiving 50 BTC at virtually unpredictable times, you receive smaller amounts at more predictable times. If you don't mind the variance, then by all means mine solo.

This exactly, I would suggest switching now.. but of course in the "long run" you will always come out making more because you aren't relying on a server to be up 24/7 and you aren't paying any fees.

So you get less downtime and more BTC.. hmm..

Hmm, thanks for the suggestion...

Downtime is a factor; Slush's has been down before:

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/2010/btcddos10072011114431.png

I quite like Slush's interface as it lets me check the status of my workers (and reward) remotely via a convenient interface...

Thanks,

SM

[SoggyMoggy]

Use a pool that doesn't tell you how many blocks you found? 

^ This

It even tells me which worker found the blocks. One of the workers (one GPU) found two blocks. I'm thinking this is my lucky graphics card. I might put that one solo while the other five work pooled

Yes, 2-3% reject rate is about right for slush as it doesn't do long polling.

Thanks for the confirmation.

[Graet]

lol i found a block on slushes on my single 5770 @ 200Mhash/s. since then i have scaled up to over 4Ghash/s and havent found another block on any of the pools i have tried.
certainly you can try, but "luck" in bitcoin mining....well it comes and goes

lots of pools have stats and features that meet or exceed slushes some dont even charge fees.

on ozco.in we get many feature requests fron members, we always consider suggestions look to see if they will improve the experience for a majority of users and if they will work out how to implement it

a lot of "middle teir" pools are stable , have regular payouts and dont suffer (yet) the ddos and other issues the huge pools do - please consider

[Newton]

One other factor to consider.

Because many of our boxes are running at the edge of stability (whether from overclock, heat, or power), and running on FAT USB drives, make sure to take care of your wallet files when solo mining.

[myhoho]

You have more chances to find some gold under your house than to find a block solo...

[bcpokey]

I always love a chance to show off my bad fortune.



I don't make a per card worker, I make a per machine worker, I'm pointing abotu 1.5Ghash to slush I believe, and as you can see I've been at it at least a month (I think it's more like 2.5 months total, but anyway) and I've found 0 blocks on any worker. In fact as far as I can tell I've never found a block at all on any pool. For me pools have been a life saver, you might be a luckier duck though and find blocks like nobody's business. That's up to you to decide. For me, the risk isn't worth the potential reward (obviously).

[macharborguy]

I always love a chance to show off my bad fortune.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/8605/slushblocks.png

I don't make a per card worker, I make a per machine worker, I'm pointing abotu 1.5Ghash to slush I believe, and as you can see I've been at it at least a month (I think it's more like 2.5 months total, but anyway) and I've found 0 blocks on any worker. In fact as far as I can tell I've never found a block at all on any pool. For me pools have been a life saver, you might be a luckier duck though and find blocks like nobody's business. That's up to you to decide. For me, the risk isn't worth the potential reward (obviously).

What are the advantages or disadvantages of having per-machine workers and per-card workers?

[pennytrader]

Some people are luckier than others (at least in a shorter time frame). So if you want to try your luck, you can always go solo.

[Pipesnake]

Not having to babysit your miners 24/7 is the main reason to run solo.  The constant hassle with the various pool connection issues and DDoS attacks make it far too stressful.

My solo miners have been running for two weeks now and I rarely even log on to see if they've found anything (nothing so far...but it's been a few days).  Just check to see if the room is 100 degrees with the gpu fans whirring away.

 

[DrHaribo]

If you switch to solo now, you won't find anything for 6 months. It's Murphy's law. 

[SmokeAndMirrors]

I mined for 2 weeks in slush pool, made  4.7 btc, found a block. Decided to start solo mining and just found my second block yesterday.

If I was still  pooled mining it probably would have taken me close to a year to make 50 btc with difficulty increasing. Even if it takes me 5 months to find a block solo, I'm making more than in a pool.

[bcpokey]

What are the advantages or disadvantages of having per-machine workers and per-card workers?

The advantages to a per card worker is that you have more granularity in stat reports. You can see how each card is performing on the pool and if any worker goes down you can get an alert and know exactly which card to check (depending on your setup/pool setup). The disadvantage is that it can be a hassle to set up, on the pool, in your client, if you update your client you have to redo every card for every worker, and so on. It's not that big a deal either way.

The per computer is just the flip, easier to just copy and paste for all cards in client and one pool setup, but less stat reporting (you have to remember approximately what rates you are getting and no warning if only one card shuts down).

[Zibbo]

Thanks error,

I thought so too (that I'd been lucky). I wonder what the odds are of three blocks in a month @ 'only' 2100Mhash/sec.

You got lucky. Don't expect the same kind of results for the next month.

Odds for finding different amounts of blocks during 30 day period with 2100Mhash/sec are about as follows:

0: 44.8%
1: 36.25%
2: 14.29%
3: 3.74%
4: 0.74%
5: 0.17%
6: 0.01%

[PcChip]

Thanks error,

I thought so too (that I'd been lucky). I wonder what the odds are of three blocks in a month @ 'only' 2100Mhash/sec. I must say that I don't like the variance, however 150 BTC is *substantially* higher than I've earnt via pooled mining and if I find another block in the next couple of weeks I think I'll go crazy.

As for Slush's, my accepted/rejected block ratio is 2.39% rejected/stale; does that seem about right?

Thanks for your advice.

If you'd like to reduce your stales, try out BTCGuild's USWest server:

[macharborguy]

Is GPU2 running above 90C?

[PcChip]

Is GPU2 running above 90C?

Yes, it's a cu-core 5770, and the box is outside in a very hot storage room (I live in Texas) because I don't want to have to air-condition over all the heat generated by the cards