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Author Topic: Isn't this a massive vulnerability built into the system?  (Read 1643 times)
macharborguy
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July 16, 2011, 06:09:35 PM
 #21

Well since we're on the topic...well off the topic Tongue ummm, I have a theoretic question that's been bugging me because I suck at remotely complicated probability calculations.

If you were to win let's say $51 on $1 scratch off for a profit of $50 and because you're dumb, you decide to take the payout in 100% more lottery tickets  Cheesy Grin

Is it more beneficial to get 5 $10 tickets or 25 $2 tickets?  I know in the real world, the payout vs odds scale up slightly unevenly on more expensive tickets but at least sort of close so ignore that.  In fact, lets say the average overall win on the $10 one is 500x the card's value with an overall average odds of 1 in 1000.  The $2 tickets have an average overall win of 50x the card's value and average overall odds of 1 in 100.  So they look identical cuz the $2 one has 10x better odds of winning 10x less money BUT the $2 choice results in more tries but for less money but all the tries are trying to win the same high value jackpots which there are a finite number of so they're not individual tries, they're sequential ones so the odds get better the more you have, making them appear to be superior to buying less cards of a higher value.  So would the $2 one be a significantly better choice or the $10 ones?

A week ago I bought $10 worth of scratch off tickets.  a $2 ticket, and 8 $1 tickets.  Only two of the $1 tickets were winners, overall winning were $11.

I then put that money into 11 $1 tickets.  Again, only two winners, and again, $11.

I then, AGAIN, put that money into 11 $1 tickets.  No winners.

IMO, go to a Casino and play Craps.  Much better odds.  Read up on the rules first, because it can get quite advanced.  And always remember, Roulette is NEVER 50/50.  You can place a bet on both red and black, yet the ball could come up 0/00 Green.

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July 16, 2011, 06:20:27 PM
 #22

oh, so if the overall odds are against you, you want lower variance or you're more likely to have an overall loss.  Like if your goal is 60% heads in coin flips, only flip 3 coins cuz if you flip 100, it's not gonna happen.

Btw I won $15 on  $5 once and got $15 in mixed tickets and on those, I won $14 back in a combination of about 3 winning cards out of the 5.  Talk about an unexpected outcome.  And then I cashed in the $14 for money and chicken sandwich Cheesy nom nom nom nom nom
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July 16, 2011, 06:45:20 PM
 #23

oh, so if the overall odds are against you, you want lower variance or you're more likely to have an overall loss.  Like if your goal is 60% heads in coin flips, only flip 3 coins cuz if you flip 100, it's not gonna happen.
Depends... But generally in a situation like you describe you want higher variance. 3 flips is higher variance than 100 flips.

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