5-Weeks of Green Candlesticks Bullish AF

[RejectedBanana]

Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).



It was only during the 2015 recovery/accumulation phase, when price and volume finally bottomed out, that 5-week greens reappeared.
Volatility spiked +/-30% in waves. Volume remained low. In hindsight, this proved to be an extremely lucrative accumulation period.

It took 7 months after the Mid 2013 Bubble top before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It took 14 months after the Late 2013 Bubble top, before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It was with the third 5-week rise, accompanied by a sharp rise in volume, that the great Bull Run of 2015-2017 began.

It has only been 4-5 months since the 2017 Bubble pop before the start of our first 5 week rise.

Methinks this is bullish AF.

edit: fixed year

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[cellard]

Good point, weekly green candles happening in a row are always good, but in my book resistances are king. Moving averages and previous resistance points to re-test prices is higher in my hierarchy of things that I look for in technical analysis than weekly closes, but this is indeed interesting since a 4 green streak is pretty damn rare... we'll see how things develop.

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

In any case, anyone attempting to nail these ideal entry points is insane. This is Bitcoin and it could pump to ATH in literally days. Anyone not holding at least 1 BTC by now can't gamble and has to start buying monthly, at market prices.

[RejectedBanana]

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

Wowee, not saying it’s impossible, but in the last 5 years, the price has never dropped that significantly after a 5-week green run. A few false starts back to baseline, sure, but ultimately they’ve led right back into a bull market.

Yeah yeah past performance no guarantee, but call me an optimist. I imagine it would take some pretty terrible FUD to knock another 50-80% off these prices. Rat poison and baby brains cubed.

[davis196]

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

Wowee, not saying it’s impossible, but in the last 5 years, the price has never dropped that significantly after a 5-week green run. A few false starts back to baseline, sure, but ultimately they’ve led right back into a bull market.

Yeah yeah past performance no guarantee, but call me an optimist. I imagine it would take some pretty terrible FUD to knock another 50-80% off these prices. Rat poison and baby brains cubed.

The FUD can scare only the newbies.Experienced HODLers,like us can`t be scared by this.I assume the cryptocurrencies are now regualated in most of the big countries(and banned in China).There`s no room for FUD,unless all the crypto haters start to scream about a crypto mass ban.

[okala]

I have never notice this and from now on I will be keeping my eyes on this.  Hope this will happen this year and we would have surge in price by November and December 2018. I have been trying to understand why some years are better than others and this might be the reason.

[Pursuer]

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

Wowee, not saying it’s impossible, but in the last 5 years, the price has never dropped that significantly after a 5-week green run. A few false starts back to baseline, sure, but ultimately they’ve led right back into a bull market.

Yeah yeah past performance no guarantee, but call me an optimist. I imagine it would take some pretty terrible FUD to knock another 50-80% off these prices. Rat poison and baby brains cubed.

The FUD can scare only the newbies.Experienced HODLers,like us can`t be scared by this.I assume the cryptocurrencies are now regualated in most of the big countries(and banned in China).There`s no room for FUD,unless all the crypto haters start to scream about a crypto mass ban.

bitcoin is not even banned in China
you never know it with FUD, a while ago price was strong and it was holding above $9k and barely ever went below it. everything was ready to breakout and go back above $10k but suddenly this drop started for no good reason (they said Mt Gox trustee again but that is not a valid reason, more of a scare). and now we are testing the $8k buy support instead of testing $10k resistance!!!

[buwaytress]

Good point, weekly green candles happening in a row are always good, but in my book resistances are king. Moving averages and previous resistance points to re-test prices is higher in my hierarchy of things that I look for in technical analysis than weekly closes, but this is indeed interesting since a 4 green streak is pretty damn rare... we'll see how things develop.

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

In any case, anyone attempting to nail these ideal entry points is insane. This is Bitcoin and it could pump to ATH in literally days. Anyone not holding at least 1 BTC by now can't gamble and has to start buying monthly, at market prices.

I'd like to take a page out of your book too. I think resistance has never been stronger or apparent than in these periods right after the high only months ago. Traders are still coming down from withdrawal symptoms and these old barriers are proving to be very difficult to break, especially when they're not confident of support. Can't blame them either as Bitcoin has really not been given enough time at all to consolidate.

I'm also hoping for a week of reds, if only to give back buying impetus. But it has been buy for me all these months, and we're going to wish we had more when traders move past 2018 fatigue.

[Denker]

Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).

-snip.

It was only during the 2015 recovery/accumulation phase, when price and volume finally bottomed out, that 5-week greens reappeared.
Volatility spiked +/-30% in waves. Volume remained low. In hindsight, this proved to be an extremely lucrative accumulation period.

It took 7 months after the Mid 2014 Bubble top before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It took 14 months after the Late 2014 Bubble top, before the start of a 5 week rise again.
It was with the third 5-week rise, accompanied by a sharp rise in volume, that the great Bull Run of 2015-2017 began.

It has only been 4-5 months since the 2017 Bubble pop before the start of our first 5 week rise.

Methinks this is bullish AF.

Nice analysis.
Just a small correction. It was the early 2013 bubble top and late 2013 bubble top. Not 2014!
Furthermore it should also be mentioned that from those 4 cases which you have highlighted in the cart, with 5 green weeks in a row, 3 of them have fully retraced afterwards! That's a fact as well.
So what if we retrace a 100% here also? Still bullish af???

I mean when you speak about being bullish in a timeframe of 1-2 years, that's fine. But short to mid term is really questionable at the moment imo.
And fractals or vents doesn't always work out. Consensus 2018 is a proof for that.

[cellard]

My next 2 big drops would be around $4500, then the very last, lowest and therefore ideal entry point to go all in, $1600, for the global, very long term uptrend. For now we've broken $8000. Let's hope we close this week with a red to get another streak of greens..

Wowee, not saying it’s impossible, but in the last 5 years, the price has never dropped that significantly after a 5-week green run. A few false starts back to baseline, sure, but ultimately they’ve led right back into a bull market.

Yeah yeah past performance no guarantee, but call me an optimist. I imagine it would take some pretty terrible FUD to knock another 50-80% off these prices. Rat poison and baby brains cubed.

Im not saying there are high possibilities of seeing these low prices... but the possibilities are there, im just applying technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is higher on the hierarchy for me than any TA, so any news or possitive developments could make the price go up against any TA predictions.

Why I saw it's realistic we could see lower prices, because we have a mixture of 2 things:

1) A bunch of idiots holding Bitcoin whose don't know what Bitcoin is and are just waiting for it to go higher to dump again for fiat, and when it doesn't they get nervous and get shaky.
2) Whales and generally TPBT understands they can't Bitcoin, only become a bigger player in it: so it's on their incentive to see lower prices before they start going all in and we go to $100k-$1million during the next decade. They want to enter in big and they will look for the perfect buy, which may be lower. Of course, the lowest point may have been $5900 already. Or they may have been buying for years, who knows.

[RejectedBanana]

Nice analysis.
Just a small correction. It was the early 2013 bubble top and late 2013 bubble top. Not 2014!
Furthermore it should also be mentioned that from those 4 cases which you have highlighted in the cart, with 5 green weeks in a row, 3 of them have fully retraced afterwards! That's a fact as well.
So what if we retrace a 100% here also? Still bullish af???

I mean when you speak about being bullish in a timeframe of 1-2 years, that's fine. But short to mid term is really questionable at the moment imo.
And fractals or vents doesn't always work out. Consensus 2018 is a proof for that.

Oops, thanks for the correction.

Even if we bounce off $6500 a couple more times, I still think this is bullish for the 6 mos to 1 yr time frame. Cyclic volatility attracts speculators, building up more and more volume until finally resistances are broken. It also attracts more prudent newcomers, hodlers, and hopefully, institutions at some point, once they feel confident a floor has been established.

If the floor breaks, well then all bets are off.

Much of the rise from prior Consensus meetings has been seen weeks to months later:

[CryptoRaymond]

Great fundamental analysis. Previously I have not seen this properly anywhere. It will help to predict and understand so many pints to note before taking investment decision. Thanks. 

[RejectedBanana]

Im not saying there are high possibilities of seeing these low prices... but the possibilities are there, im just applying technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is higher on the hierarchy for me than any TA, so any news or possitive developments could make the price go up against any TA predictions.

Why I saw it's realistic we could see lower prices, because we have a mixture of 2 things:

1) A bunch of idiots holding Bitcoin whose don't know what Bitcoin is and are just waiting for it to go higher to dump again for fiat, and when it doesn't they get nervous and get shaky.
2) Whales and generally TPBT understands they can't Bitcoin, only become a bigger player in it: so it's on their incentive to see lower prices before they start going all in and we go to $100k-$1million during the next decade. They want to enter in big and they will look for the perfect buy, which may be lower. Of course, the lowest point may have been $5900 already. Or they may have been buying for years, who knows.

Agreed.

Although the tree has been shaken pretty hard these last months... any idiots still holding are pretty tenacious. We aren't seeing high volume panic spikes anymore, but more round bottomed highs and lows. If there are a lot of bag-holders just waiting to get out, I think they'll show up more in the cup handles.

For the most part, I think whales/institutions either OTC or DCA into the market to avoid slippage. They are in for the long game, so perfect market timing is not so important. Whales can be a mixed bag, though.. some are just in for the lulz. Like Kobayashi.

Fundamental news takes a while to soak in. Segwit adoption, transaction batching, lightning nodes, institutional offerings are all on the rise but have a delayed effect on price, much like the halvening. FUD and TA tend to invoke instantaneous response, but too much of the same old and people become numb to it, and before you know it, 5 weeks of green.

[thecodebear]

So basically your argument is that, post-crash, when Bitcoin has more than a month of green weeks in a row that shows that bears are no longer in control, and while it doesn't mean the price will get a big boost soon, it at least signals the inflection point from bear market to bull market (at least a gradual bull market).

I guess I can buy that. I don't think Bitcoin is gonna have any eye-popping gains the next 6 months unless institutional investors canonball in, but I do think this correction after that recent 5 week green run is as low as Bitcion will ever be - that dip the past 24 hours under 8000 will very possible be the last time we see Bitcoin under $8k assuming buy support continues the next few days.

[Febo]

Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).

There was 6 consecutive green candles in May 2014. So almost identical time after the ATH as now. From your chart it is seen we might see Bitcoin price decrease until next year. And have so so steady 2019 and Bitcoin price growth in 2020 again.   Well that was always the most pessimistic plan.

[RejectedBanana]

Looking at the weeklies going all the way back to 2013, seeing 5 consecutive green candles outside of a bull run is pretty rare.

In fact, they are non-existent during the 2014 bear market (if you don't count consecutive dojis).

There was 6 consecutive green candles in May 2014. So almost identical time after the ATH as now. From your chart it is seen we might see Bitcoin price decrease until next year. And have so so steady 2019 and Bitcoin price growth in 2020 again.   Well that was always the most pessimistic plan.

Like I said, I don’t count consecutive dojis. Those first three candles are practically flat. But sure. It’s possible, but hopefully improbable.  

To me, that period looks like the bull trap to $11k we had a couple months ago, only accelerated.