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Author Topic: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View  (Read 17712 times)
imperi
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July 15, 2011, 06:40:51 PM
 #101

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

True, that is a big part of the SR community (reputation and early userids).  However, if a drug is priced just a little bit cheaper, there will be people who buy it even if the guy doesn't have much reputation.  And BTW, the agents can just work together over a few months and build up reputation.

So the agents would sell real drugs to people? This is what you're saying? lol
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supersonic3974
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July 15, 2011, 06:41:33 PM
 #102

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 06:42:18 PM
 #103

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The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.

Yeah, but only to the extent that it provides for a convenient number, perhaps $1/1BTC. The actual value could be $0.01, just something against which an exchange rate can be had for real currency. People using Silk Road don't give a shit what that value of BTC is. It's just an anonymizing proxy. USD, etc. -> BTC -> USD, etc.

 


Absolutely, BUT there will be added value by speculators who still see some market activity, thus driving up the price above the lowest necessary value for whatever level of trade.
BitcoinHoarder
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July 15, 2011, 06:42:24 PM
 #104

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

True, that is a big part of the SR community (reputation and early userids).  However, if a drug is priced just a little bit cheaper, there will be people who buy it even if the guy doesn't have much reputation.  And BTW, the agents can just work together over a few months and build up reputation.

So the agents would sell real drugs to people? This is what you're saying? lol

No.

Agent 1 sells 1/8 oz of pot to Agent 2.  Agent 2 says he did a good job.
Agent 1 sells 1/8 oz of pot to Agent 3.  Agent 3 says he did a good job.

This is what I am saying.
Shinobi
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July 15, 2011, 06:42:59 PM
 #105

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

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July 15, 2011, 06:43:26 PM
 #106

i see, i was underestimating SR capabilities. I retract my comments above.
I would still advise to stay far away from that site though. mailing drugs sounds like asking for trouble.

BitcoinHoarder, good point above
imperi
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July 15, 2011, 06:43:28 PM
 #107

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The illegal transactions alone are enough to sustain SOME value.

Yeah, but only to the extent that it provides for a convenient number, perhaps $1/1BTC. The actual value could be $0.01, just something against which an exchange rate can be had for real currency. People using Silk Road don't give a shit what that value of BTC is. It's just an anonymizing proxy. USD, etc. -> BTC -> USD, etc.

 


If the value is $0.01, then one person can spend 10k and get 1 million bitcoins. So I think that is under-valued.
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 06:44:59 PM
 #108

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.

Yeah, bullshit incentives are actually the only thing that COULD get people to buy in bitcoins.

And what astoundingly extreme circumstances can you imagine that would drive a used car dealer to not only start excepting bitcoins, but to TAKE A LOSS relative to a sale in USD?

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...
imperi
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July 15, 2011, 06:46:00 PM
 #109

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.
BitcoinHoarder
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July 15, 2011, 06:46:38 PM
 #110

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...

There has been a lot of ribbing in this thread but this is serious now.  You should never take a trip to a local SCI house, even if it is for "comical" reasons.

/PSA
supersonic3974
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July 15, 2011, 06:47:07 PM
 #111

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.

Yeah, bullshit incentives are actually the only thing that COULD get people to buy in bitcoins.

And what astoundingly extreme circumstances can you imagine that would drive a used car dealer to not only start excepting bitcoins, but to TAKE A LOSS relative to a sale in USD?

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...
Have you ever heard of "for sale by owner"?
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 06:47:40 PM
 #112

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.


imperi everyone,

let's give him a round of applause.
grod
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July 15, 2011, 06:48:52 PM
 #113


Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?

Have you ever tried to buy a car belonging to her recently passed away husband from a little old lady in Salina, Kansas with "cash" while her apparently inbred yet highly paranoid relatives supervise the transaction?  Let me tell you, it's not fun negotiating what type of check and guarantees she will accept let alone getting them in the middle of Outer Mongolia, 400 miles from home.

If (and this is still if) bitcoins were mainstream enough for her and her relatives to know it's an irreversible, secure transaction I could make from my phone and they could verify in 10 minutes I'd have had that 67 Bronco without two dozen new grey hairs.
BitcoinHoarder
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July 15, 2011, 06:49:03 PM
 #114

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.

It would only take a dozen stings to disrupt confidence in the community.  So the community would move to the next place (minus a certain percent of people who get too scared), and so would the agents.  That's how law enforcement goes.
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 06:50:37 PM
 #115

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

So if there aren't daily articles in the New York Times about Bitcoin, it's dying?

If you excercise any reading comprehention and read my first post, I'm actually saying that if there aren't any reasonable reasons upcoming for bitcoin to get the media exposure that DRIVES SPECULATION which is only thing at all that DRIVES BITCOIN VALUE, then yes, it's dying.

I doesn't have to be a huge media outlet to drive speculation.  If the less techy public learns that you can buy a car with bitcoins, then that is going to get their attention.

Why would it, if they can just buy it with USD?

Cause I can tell you flat the fuck out that no-one will EVER finance a car with bitcoins.  And if bitcoins are as good as cash for that purchase, what the fuck is the point?
There can be incentives to using bitcoins to make a purchase like that.  Say someone offers a discount if they buy in bitcoins.

Yeah, bullshit incentives are actually the only thing that COULD get people to buy in bitcoins.

And what astoundingly extreme circumstances can you imagine that would drive a used car dealer to not only start excepting bitcoins, but to TAKE A LOSS relative to a sale in USD?

I swear, I have never been among a more banal group of people since I took a comical trip to a local scientology org...
Have you ever heard of "for sale by owner"?

Have you ever heard of "no-one gives a fuck?"

Again, no-one cares that a guy traded a brown paper bag containing a copious bowl movement that's held closed by scotch tape with a drawing made by his 6 year old first born son on the front for a fancy yacht.

I mean, really? Every odd sale or trade on craigslist is newsworthy? Enough to drive market speculation on the bags of shit exchange?

I love it here, I really do.
imperi
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July 15, 2011, 06:50:48 PM
 #116

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.

It would only take a dozen stings to disrupt confidence in the community.  So the community would move to the next place (minus a certain percent of people who get too scared), and so would the agents.  That's how law enforcement goes.

Everyone lives in very separate locations, so each 'sting' would cost thousands of dollars per college kid to arrest in coordinated efforts, and some would fail because the address recipient wasn't the drug buyer.

edit:

Nobody has explained yet how the police could get good feedback, which is necessary to make lots of sales. Are they going to hack the site? lol
supersonic3974
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July 15, 2011, 06:54:47 PM
 #117


Have you ever heard of "no-one gives a fuck?"

Again, no-one cares that a guy traded a brown paper bag containing a copious bowl movement that's held closed by scotch tape with a drawing made by his 6 year old first born son on the front for a fancy yacht.

I mean, really? Every odd sale or trade on craigslist is newsworthy? Enough to drive market speculation on the bags of shit exchange?

I love it here, I really do.

No, no one cares because people buy things on craigslist in cash (USD).  People have been buying cars in cash since they were invented.  To my knowledge, no one has ever bought a car with bitcoins.
imperi
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July 15, 2011, 06:55:32 PM
 #118


Have you ever heard of "no-one gives a fuck?"

Again, no-one cares that a guy traded a brown paper bag containing a copious bowl movement that's held closed by scotch tape with a drawing made by his 6 year old first born son on the front for a fancy yacht.

I mean, really? Every odd sale or trade on craigslist is newsworthy? Enough to drive market speculation on the bags of shit exchange?

I love it here, I really do.

No, no one cares because people buy things on craigslist in cash (USD).  People have been buying cars in cash since they were invented.  To my knowledge, no one has ever bought a car with bitcoins.

I don't think Synaptic has ever spent more than $200 before, from his mom's credit card.
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 06:56:42 PM
 #119

This is an important point. I think that many folks here think that the Government is "dumb". It is *not*. It may be operating along principles that you disagree with, but it is most definitely not stupid.

Undercover agents can't pose as dealers because they don't have good reputation and good feedback from successful sales. Furthermore, they lack early number userids.

Driving in a car is "crazy" for someone who spent their whole life in the Amazon rain forest, but once they have done it enough they know it is safe. Like buying on the Silk Road.

I think you vastly underestimate the resourcefulness and long term planning of Federal law enforcement.

...oh wait. imperi.

NVM, carry on.

If you don't offer a way that law enforcement could *viably* disrupt Silk Road, rather than take down a dozen or so buyers (and generate lots of free publicity), then you don't have a valid argument.

It would only take a dozen stings to disrupt confidence in the community.  So the community would move to the next place (minus a certain percent of people who get too scared), and so would the agents.  That's how law enforcement goes.

Everyone lives in very separate locations, so each 'sting' would cost thousands of dollars per college kid to arrest in coordinated efforts, and some would fail because the address recipient wasn't the drug buyer.

edit:

Nobody has explained yet how the police could get good feedback, which is necessary to make lots of sales.

Screenplay says?

IMPERI: Exists stage left.
grod
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July 15, 2011, 06:57:14 PM
 #120


Everyone lives in very separate locations, so each 'sting' would cost thousands of dollars per college kid to arrest in coordinated efforts, and some would fail because the address recipient wasn't the drug buyer.

edit:

Nobody has explained yet how the police could get good feedback, which is necessary to make lots of sales. Are they going to hack the site? lol

This is trivial.  Bust a drug dealer, offer him or her prosecution immunity in return for setting up sting op.  Done deal.
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