Bitcoin price - is it a "W" or a breakthrough?

[Jet Cash]

I started this thread because most price discussions seem to focus on a mid to long term trend, and I'm interested in the next couple of days. At the moment, Bitcoin is in an interesting price position, and I need to decide when I should withdraw some dollar valued funds into Bitcoin. I've read a lot of chartist comments, and some state that the price is in a "W", and may drop to $6.000 or so before rising again. Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run. I'm a long term HODLer, and I believe that the end of year price will be substantially higher, but before that I need to "buy the dip".

So what do you guys think about the next couple of days. Will a second leg of a "W" appear, and present a great buying window, or have we breached the resistance, and the price will hit $10,000 before next Monday?

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[imapessimist]

I think the price will not shoot up.  And somebody is manipulating it to make it look as if it is and then people will buy and hold.  Then the whales will swoop down and crash the price again.  So they can get the cheap coins.  That's what I think.  So I think 12-36 hours time is the time to buy cheap.  but it's just a guess.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think it’s a short term period of consolidation in & around the $8,000 range. Traders are taking a breath before the next leg up. I expect $11,000 by the end of February.

[Jet Cash]

I think the price will not shoot up.  And somebody is manipulating it to make it look as if it is and then people will buy and hold.  Then the whales will swoop down and crash the price again.  So they can get the cheap coins.  That's what I think.  So I think 12-36 hours time is the time to buy cheap.  but it's just a guess.

So you think it is a "W". I tend to agree with you, but I wonder if it is just wishful thinking.

I think it’s a short term period of consolidation in & around the $8,000 range. Traders are taking a breath before the next leg up. I expect $11,000 by the end of February.

But what about the end of the week-end?

[1Referee]

Even if the market does increase further beyond the current resistance levels, it won't be sustainable for long without anything hinting at a positive development the market can use as a trigger to continue to keep people buying. Most logical scenario for now is that we'll keep bouncing between $8000-$9000 for a few more days, until we manage to comforably move outside the repetitive pattern, which goes up for both the lower and the higher point. 50% chance to touch $9000, and 50% chance to touch $8000. Less than 25% chance to touch $10,000, and less than 25% chance to touch $7000. Short term speaking, it's just pure accumulation time at sub $10,000 levels.

[imapessimist]

Lots of new investors need to be sucked in with the promise of wealth like last time.  So if somebody was a financial expert and studied why so many people came in at 15,16,17,18,19k then they would have their answer.  New people need to come in with new money or the price won't be boosted to any great extent.  So somebody needs to persuade people that Bitcoin is going to the moon.  If they can do that then it might.  If they can't then it won't.

[Pursuer]

I am not much of a "chartist" but I can say that a big drop at this point where the recovery has happened and the confidence in the market is back up again, is not as simple. so without another wave of bad news after bad news (FUD mania) I won't expect dropping to $6000

and so far with the price creeping up towards $9000 we may see a rising W meaning drop after not being able to breakout and higher lows each time it goes back down, before the breakout happens.

[Jet Cash]

You don't need new investors, you just need people to buy and hold Bitcoin. I suspect the pump and dump is to help long term major investors acquire coins at "low" prices.

[shinjunobi09]

For me, the price will not reach 10,000 USD this week because the way the price of bitcoin is playing around 8,000 and 7,000 USD most of the people here are expecting a small amount of reached or maybe if we're lucky and the demand is still consistent. we will be able 9,000 USD.

[Beerwizzard]

If you need to withdraw then go ahead. It is not clear yet but I thinkg that for the next few day in the best case we will stick around 10k price with a +-5-10% daily changes. Trying to catch a moment and sell btc 5% higher seems quiet pointless during the last time. This price will probably remains till the end of the upcoming week bucause if for example some updates on tether investigation will come out it will definetely have a negative effect while the uptrend is still too short to predict longer movements.

[newwest]

You don't need new investors, you just need people to buy and hold Bitcoin. I suspect the pump and dump is to help long term major investors acquire coins at "low" prices.

Most of this pump and dump is done on the altcoins which have very minimal price and can be bought/sold at larger qty easily by the group of people. Thus for btc the prices is nearing 9k already and soon the next would be reaching the 5 figure mark and should happen soon within next week.

[Jet Cash]

If you need to withdraw then go ahead. It is not clear yet but I thinkg that for the next few day in the best case we will stick around 10k price with a +-5-10% daily changes. Trying to catch a moment and sell btc 5% higher seems quiet pointless during the last time. This price will probably remains till the end of the upcoming week bucause if for example some updates on tether investigation will come out it will definetely have a negative effect while the uptrend is still too short to predict longer movements.

I'm not selling. I have a dollar account with a domain name registrar, and I am allowed to withdraw the proceeds from sales in Bitcoin. I can decide when to request a withdrawal. If the price halves, then I get twice as much Bitcoin, if it doubles, then I only get half.

[Crytptohack]

I see the typical V shaped spike low bottom on this one. But why is it different than any other of the lows with the downwards channel?  Volume...

If you look at the 4hr chart, the last spike low has the highest sell/buy volume out of any of the downturns since the high produced since Dec 17. (Does that mean it was the bottom in 2018? No, but it is a significant confirmation IMO)

Based on the GDAX exchange, from the peak on Dec 17 (19981) to the spike low (5873) a few days ago was a -70.6% drop in price. Quite a large drop in price and was larger than the 2013 Dec/Jan selloff, that one IIRC was in the mid 60's percentage wise.

Running a fibonacci on the bitstamp exchange from the same period of the low in July 17 to the Dec 17 peak, the re-tracement spiked down to the .236 level. Technically, that is one of the fibonacci levels that would be seen as support.

What I am looking for is the price to meet and exceed the 9499 level on GDAX as that was a previous high (4hr chart)  IF that occurs, it will be producing higher highs which is one of the essential aspects of a higher trend. (Higher highs and higher lows) IMHO, the low for 2018 was produced a few days ago.

I have been running technical analysis on the Gold/Silver markets for more than 10 years, so that is my background. I mostly hodL in the crypto market, and do some trading. I am not a pro trader.

[Jet Cash]

Well it looks as if it can't get its boots off £6,000, so I think I'll hold off until tomorrow. Hopefuuly the price will drop again, and give me a chance to grab some coins.

[tdrinker]

Well it looks as if it can't get its boots off £6,000, so I think I'll hold off until tomorrow. Hopefuuly the price will drop again, and give me a chance to grab some coins.

I don't think we're going to revisit 6k or even 7k. From 7k to almost 9k last night it's not been an easy increase and the price has still had a lot of daily volatility. Ultimately it's broken through resistance levels at second or third attempts. The most recent one being 9k. I expect the price will be up towards 9k again later today and breaking through it at some point tomorrow, then on towards 10k we go. If we see any major dip I think it will be from 10k downwards as it will be a bigger barrier to break due to the psychological nature.

[Jet Cash]

Sorry I've been posting in Sterling - it's all this Brexit stuff.

Just as a very approximate equivalence - £6,100 is about $8,500 ( give or take $100 )..

[jtipt]

I started this thread because most price discussions seem to focus on a mid to long term trend, and I'm interested in the next couple of days. At the moment, Bitcoin is in an interesting price position, and I need to decide when I should withdraw some dollar valued funds into Bitcoin. I've read a lot of chartist comments, and some state that the price is in a "W", and may drop to $6.000 or so before rising again. Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run. I'm a long term HODLer, and I believe that the end of year price will be substantially higher, but before that I need to "buy the dip".

I believe it's a rough V. I am not expecting a bug drop atleast until $10k, after then there is a possibility of a bear run, but wouldn't expect it to last for long. Eh I think the correction is done.

[Jet Cash]

I'm starting to suspect that the current ceiling is in US dollars, and it is $8,500. It doesn't seem capable of making a sustained breakthrough after its drop from $9,000. I think the answer is to ignore it until Monday, and re-evaluate the trend then.

[Crytptohack]

I'm starting to suspect that the current ceiling is in US dollars, and it is $8,500. It doesn't seem capable of making a sustained breakthrough after its drop from $9,000. I think the answer is to ignore it until Monday, and re-evaluate the trend then.

On the GDAX exchange, there is a spike low on January 17th which bottomed at $9017 USD's. BTC has reached that level and declined as it is a resistance point, I would guess that it will make another attempt/test and it's 50/50 if it breaks through or declines again.  (It's common for an asset to test a resistance level a few times before breaking through)

It is hard to say where the price will be towards the end of Sunday, watch the $9017 level on the GDAX exchange and that will give you a clue. If it breaks $9017, it's going to the previous level I mentioned in my initial reply of $9499. (Which will be the next resistance level).   

After $9499, $11695 is the next high but it will be a while before that will happen, potentially the last week of this month. (If I were to speculate)

[Hazir]

I thought that we are out of the woods already - for the last 2 days we have really nice gains.
But then again, today it wasn't pretty at all and I am afraid that a potential bearish stance could send bitcoin down to the low $5k.
Then we will see possible rebound - recently I am getting a headache trying to predict the price of BTC.