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riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 03:35:48 PM
 #41

Hi Freemoney,

thanks for answering me with such detail.

I don't think it is positive.

The rest of my post gave a bunch of reasons why the return is lower than at first glance.

I think you're referring to this:

Quote
I have a few thoughts. An attacker isn't likely to want a bunch of services, those can't usually be resold easily. Goods will usually not ship until the next day so the attacker has to overcome the whole network for ~12 or more. Even if he pulls this off people will notice and many will be warned not to ship goods ordered after X time.

I disagree. A slow attack can target slow-shipping goods/services coming from isolated community-unaware sellers. A fast attack can target immediate-delivery goods/services making sure the interval of being alerted is smaller than the duration of the attack.

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In addition to all the power that the attacker will have to buy or rent there will be a lot of planning involved. They need to search out what goods will ship fast enough to go out during their attack, if they can't hold on to the network for over a day this will only be certain parts of the world. They need to set up a place or places for delivery, and a way to resell the goods unless they are doing this for their own consumption. They need to find all the little exchanges and make accounts and set up bank accounts to send the money to, under different names I guess.

Yes. That's exactly the business of a malicious attacker. The whole point of Bitcoin should be being resilient to malicious attacks.

You also add:

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Many types of merchants would be immune, many would be warned, etc.

I disagree. The first scenario I outlined involves attacking just 80 providers accepting BTC, in 60 minutes.

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Shops are not going to mindlessly ship their entire stock without making sure nothing weird is going on.


The transactions involved in such attack would be worth around FRN ("USD") 160 each, which is surely not the entire stock of a shop owner, nor all the goods/services providable by a generic seller.

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Even if they aren't savvy they are likely to know other bitcoin merchants. "Huh, all of your stuff was just bought too? Cool, I guess we're rich now."

See the two points above.

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Bitcoin price is up about 6x since I got here and difficulty is up over 90x.

The attack scenario is based on the current Bitcoin network status.

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The value of attack calculation is hard, but you aren't even looking at the right numbers. The attacker doesn't just get to turn bitcoins into cash via magic. He's going to flood exchanges and tip people off by buying to many sneakers. A lot of what you can do with bitcoin doesn't help him at all, so he can get a lot of credits at A Tale in the Desert, so what, doesn't help him at all. He can bet at bitcoinsportsbook, so what? The only thing valuable to him is the exchanges and they are likely to be the most alert to weird stuff.

I disagree. As I said, it takes only 80 relatively small transactions to complete the attack, and it doesn't have to by central banks' currencies. If I were a merchant I would like to be 100% sure that I can't be ripped off if I accept BTC, regardless of what I'm selling. Am I wrong, or do merchants lack this insurance if they use BTC ?

In your last post you add:

Quote
Your calculations are garbage. You cannot spend coins 80 times in an hour. The attacker has the power to rewrite a history that doesn't include him spending the coins, that is all. He can't simultaneously convince 80 people that they have the same coins.

I understand your argument. Why shouldn't the attacker be able to releases a new block and as many blocks after it as needed to make its malicious chain the longest chain after the merchant has delivered the good/service to him ?

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In the slow shipping example you need to let the shipper think he has coins until after he ships, then you can pull them back. You can't do this 80 times in 2days. You would need about 40 days if people are shipping same day.

Makes a lot of sense. The attacker should buy immediate-delivery or fast-delivery goods services, such as: face-to-face material goods (in real shops), virtual goods, music, movies, ebooks, etc. The more the Bitcoin network grows, the more stuff available to be stolen will be available. Also, please consider that the job of an attacker is to figure out these details, while a merchant should be insured that hacking the system is not an option on Bitcoin.

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If you try to spend them twice in an hour at, say, MtGox you won't ever get credit and can't get dollars because he waits for 6 confirmations. If you go for 2 hours you can spend them there twice this will not get you double your money because you will be bidding the price down by buying quickly which you will have to do since your cover is blown when you stop paying $8560/hr. Not to mention that Mtgox (the only site with anywhere near enough bids to get your 'investment' back) has some max withdrawal per day.

You're right, but you'll agree with me that the attack should consist of 80 small transactions, involving sellers who are not superalert as moneychangers or bankers are.

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Once again, the reason this is not profitable is that you have to match the entire network, but you only get a little tiny slice of the flow, not "everything conceivably for sale for bitcoins"

I agree. The goal of the attacker should not be to steal everything available in Bitcoin, but just enough to reap a positive ROI.

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And this attack does not get more profitable as USD/BTC increases. Difficulty has been increasing faster than price for a long time. It is getting more costly at a faster rate than the payout is growing.

A technical question: isn't owning the majority of the CPU power enough to impose a malicious chain, regardless of the size and age of the network, and the consequent difficulty ?
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riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 03:48:46 PM
 #42

Hi caveden

In the best scenario you would attack some exchanges and get some cash, but then, that would identify you, since cash transfers are not anonymous. You wouldn't manage to make a positive ROI by doing cash-in-the-mail exchanges!

Absolutely. Please note that in the attack I outilned the targets are not moneychangers, nor banks, nor any BTC pro.

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Seriously, I can't see how such an attack would be profitable.

Please look at the numbers outlined in the Quora question for this.

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I bet that, if you're willing to engage in criminal activities, there are probably much better ROIs you could obtain with such an investment....

I totally agree with you on a moral side. Criminal activities are a bad thing, and Bitcoin is an effort to liberate people from criminal-like monopolies. Unfortunately I think there will always be a country in the world where hacking Bitcoin is not considered illegal. On the other hand, I fear that Bitcoin will soon be rendered illegal in many countries.
riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 03:56:38 PM
 #43

HI freetx


Regarding your 3 other points:

1. Legal: Yes, .gov could make it illegal. However, think through your underlying premise a bit....any currency sufficiently open enough to be a "better" currency than current Central Bank currency would also be pressured via the same tactic. I mean with that premise (.gov will make it illegal), why try at all?

2. Competition: Great, I think competition would be outstanding. I don't think lots of us who support BTC actively think its going to be the "only" currency used. Whats wrong with having 10 active competing currencies? Doesn't that benefit mankind the most anyway? Moreover, due to the nature that BTC is purely electronic, there will always be instantaneous exchanges available to translate between BTC and the new XYZ currency of favor.

3. Infiltration: Again this is a 'so what?' sort of premise. Poor Linus should've never tried to create his own Linux operating system....after all IBM and MSFT may have tried to subjugate the process via its open development process.

I agree with you: the fact that governments, competitors and infiltration will attack Bitcoin should not be a reason not to fight. But my concern is: how will the FRN/BTC ratio be affected when such shocks happen ? This is very important for me and people to know: if I am to accept BTCs in exchange for my labour, I wanna know how likely it is that the result of my labour could plummet, and how much. I hope you have the same concern Smiley
riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 04:01:13 PM
 #44

Hi theymos

-The BTCs owners could be very sad, because panic could trigger a drop in the FRN/BTC exchange ratio, triggering evaporation of purchasing power of their BTCs, e.g. their BTCs can buy much less goods and services than before the attack.

The attacker must hold a large amount of BTC in order to execute the attack. So he'll also be affected by the lower price. If he brings the price of BTC to 0, then his attack was pointless, since the money that he got back is now worthless.

I'm sorry but I don't understand your argument. The goal of the attacker is to harvest goods/services and have 0 BTCs at the end of the attack, but be plenty of goods/services. The attacker will therefore not suffer from the FRN/BTC ratio plummeting because of panic triggered when the the community realizes to have been hacked, which is after the attack is completed. I hope you agree with me.
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January 23, 2011, 04:09:28 PM
 #45

Hi Gavin,

thanks for your technical answer. You sound expert in the details of how Bitcoin works, I hope to learn more.

FreeMoney is absolutely right.

The only way to get 80 people to accept the same 400 bitcoins would be to control all of their bitcoin connections and feed them different versions of the block chain.

Satoshi Nakamoto writes in his white paper that it is not needed to control all of the bitcoin connections, but just a majority of them. Am I missing something ?

Quote
And THAT will be impossible, because the people you're trying to rip off (merchants selling stuff) are exactly the people with long-running, well-connected bitcoin nodes.

Please note that the attack I outline targets BTC users who are not pros.
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January 23, 2011, 04:10:38 PM
 #46

A technical question: isn't owning the majority of the CPU power enough to impose a malicious chain, regardless of the size and age of the network, and the consequent difficulty ?

No. Rewriting old blocks requires you to generate them again. So if you want to go back 6 blocks, you have to do the work required to generate them with the current difficulty and continue to compete against legitimate generators.

I'm sorry but I don't understand your argument. The goal of the attacker is to harvest goods/services and have 0 BTCs at the end of the attack, but be plenty of goods/services. The attacker will therefore not suffer from the FRN/BTC ratio plummeting because of panic triggered when the the community realizes to have been hacked, which is after the attack is completed. I hope you agree with me.

That's much more difficult. A future version of Bitcoin will probably let the second recipient identify this attack immediately, since it is easy to see. A more likely attack is one where the second spend is back to the attacker.

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Gavin Andresen
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January 23, 2011, 05:18:50 PM
 #47

Satoshi Nakamoto writes in his white paper that it is not needed to control all of the bitcoin connections, but just a majority of them. Am I missing something ?

You are confusing "control 50+% of generating power" with "control connections."

Lets say you control 51% of the generating power.

You can:

Spend bitcoins once.  Then wait for them to be confirmed by the rest of the network as many times as the merchant requires, while secretly working on another version of the block chain where you did NOT spend them.  Your secret block chain should be longer than the network's, since you control 51% of the generating power.

So you announce your secret block chain, and instead of sending those coins to a merchant you include a transaction where you send them to yourself.  YEAH!  you just ripped off the merchant!  Wahoo!

You cannot rip off two merchants with the same bitcoins-- one or the other of the transactions will be seen as valid.

And you cannot "unspend" the transaction to the merchant-- if you don't spend it SOMEWHERE, the merchant's bitcoin node will re-announce it to the network and all the other nodes will consider those bitcoins "spent, just waiting to be included in the next generated block."


If you run the numbers again with the realistic double-spend scenario, you'll see crime doesn't pay.  There is no way you can rent enough hashing power to commit a profitable double-spend attack.

If you can steal the hashing power (maybe you're a bot farmer), then if you run the numbers you'll find it is more profitable to just generate blocks and sell the bitcoins rather than try to somehow get stuff trying to double-spend.

How often do you get the chance to work on a potentially world-changing project?
riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 06:24:28 PM
 #48

Hi Gavin,

thanks for the explanation.

You can:

Spend bitcoins once.  Then wait for them to be confirmed by the rest of the network as many times as the merchant requires, while secretly working on another version of the block chain where you did NOT spend them.  Your secret block chain should be longer than the network's, since you control 51% of the generating power.

So you announce your secret block chain, and instead of sending those coins to a merchant you include a transaction where you send them to yourself.  YEAH!  you just ripped off the merchant!  Wahoo!

Are you saying that:
a) an attacker should announce a block chain where the spend is never acknowledged ?
b) the attacker should announce a block chain where the spend is acknowledged, and where another opposite transaction is, too ?
c) the attacker should announce a block chain where the spend is acknowledged, but the recipient is not the merchant address anymore but the/a attarcker's address ?

Quote
You cannot rip off two merchants with the same bitcoins-- one or the other of the transactions will be seen as valid.

And you cannot "unspend" the transaction to the merchant-- if you don't spend it SOMEWHERE, the merchant's bitcoin node will re-announce it to the network and all the other nodes will consider those bitcoins "spent, just waiting to be included in the next generated block."

Would you agree on this description of the attack ?

"So in summary the attack works like this: the first BTCs spend happens in, say, block 105000. After the merchant acknowledges it and delivers the good/service to the attacker, the attacker's malicious network releases a new block 105000 and as many blocks after it as needed to make it the longest chain. Now the whole network (honest clients included) acknowledges that the attacker holds the coin because there is no record of first the transaction according to the majority of CPUs. Then the BTCs are spent again, and the process is repeated many times."

I feel that your point is: the transaction can't just disappear.

Quote
If you run the numbers again with the realistic double-spend scenario, you'll see crime doesn't pay.  There is no way you can rent enough hashing power to commit a profitable double-spend attack.

If you can steal the hashing power (maybe you're a bot farmer), then if you run the numbers you'll find it is more profitable to just generate blocks and sell the bitcoins rather than try to somehow get stuff trying to double-spend.

Ummm ... are you sure ? Could you be specific as which numbers are wrong in my Quora question ? According to my calculations, the ROI of such attack would be extremely positive.
riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 06:30:02 PM
 #49

Hi theymos,

thanks for the very technical answer.

No. Rewriting old blocks requires you to generate them again. So if you want to go back 6 blocks, you have to do the work required to generate them with the current difficulty and continue to compete against legitimate generators.

Why should an attacker want to go back, instead of just being faster than the honest network in producing a longer chain ?

Quote
That's much more difficult. A future version of Bitcoin will probably let the second recipient identify this attack immediately, since it is easy to see. A more likely attack is one where the second spend is back to the attacker.

1) Why do you say that a "backspend" is a better double-spending than a second spend towards a second recipient ?
2) How could a future Bitcoin client ever be protected from the double-spending exploit that currently affects Bitcoin ?
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January 23, 2011, 06:45:47 PM
 #50

From the Quora question:

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The attack sould last 1h, spending those 400 BTC for 80 times instead of just 1

You can't spend 400 BTC 80 times in 1 hour.  If you control a majority of the generation you could spend them twice an an hour (assuming merchants require 6 confirmations).

So you need to divide your expected profit per hour by 40, making your ROI very, very negative.


How often do you get the chance to work on a potentially world-changing project?
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January 23, 2011, 07:18:03 PM
 #51

Why should an attacker want to go back, instead of just being faster than the honest network in producing a longer chain ?

It would allow you to double-spend without controlling the network at the time of the initial transaction that you want to double-spend. Otherwise you need to control the network for the entire time between the first and second transaction.

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Why do you say that a "backspend" is a better double-spending than a second spend towards a second recipient ?

It's another person do deal with, and they won't be cooperating with you to improve speed. Perhaps it is not much more difficulty right now, but it will be if this is implemented:

Quote
How could a future Bitcoin client ever be protected from the double-spending exploit that currently affects Bitcoin ?

Whenever a block chain reorganize occurs, check if any of the replaced transactions are yours or are being replaced by a version that is now yours. If they are, then a double-spend is almost certainly happening with you as a party. The transaction should then be marked specially and not listed by any of the RPC methods by default. You can also watch memory pool transactions in the same way.

This wouldn't protect against an attacker who can reverse your 6-confirmation transactions, but it would stop the person receiving the double-spend from accepting it and alert everyone that someone is double-spending.

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riggasconi
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January 23, 2011, 08:39:28 PM
 #52

You can't spend 400 BTC 80 times in 1 hour.  If you control a majority of the generation you could spend them twice an an hour (assuming merchants require 6 confirmations).

Why ?
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January 23, 2011, 09:18:33 PM
 #53

From the Quora question:

Quote
The attack sould last 1h, spending those 400 BTC for 80 times instead of just 1

You can't spend 400 BTC 80 times in 1 hour.  If you control a majority of the generation you could spend them twice an an hour (assuming merchants require 6 confirmations).

So you need to divide your expected profit per hour by 40, making your ROI very, very negative.



These guys certainly show a lack of understanding here about the Bitcoin protocols.  The issue here isn't gaining temporary control of a majority of the CPU power of the network, the issue is gaining control of a majority of the network over a prolonged period of time.

More importantly, there is a mistaken notion here that transactions are "irreversible".  If you are engaged in gaming Bitcoins, transactions are indeed reversible and any attempt to double spend will be wiped out upon verification by the trusted nodes on the network.  BTW, CPU power alone isn't sufficient but also having the transactions verified by the various nodes including those who aren't necessarily even providing CPU power but rather merely network bandwidth.  If you can't get the majority of the nodes to accept your blocks & transactions, it is a wasted transaction even if you have a huge amount of CPU bandwidth being thrown at the issue.

BTW, this is one of the reasons why changed in 0.3.16 were such a big deal because it did change some of what the "ordinary nodes" were doing with some of the blocks and packets, rejecting certain transactions because of "unusual" data.

This kind of "attack" does point out that folks who are shipping physical merchandise ought to set up perhaps some sort of policy of requiring perhaps a few more than just six confirmations, as that is the real scam here.  In the attempt to double-spend, the attacker is trying to fool somebody into thinking they have legitimately received payment when in fact they haven't received any bitcoins at all.  When the attack fails, the "accounts" or at least who has what bitcoins will be a settled issue.

From the article:

Quote
The attacker may do this even without hiding from law enforcement agencies, given I'm not sure such attacks on the Bitcoin network would be considered illegal in every legislation of the world. In fact, many legilations could morally approve and cheer such an attacker, as soon as they realize Bitcoin is a threat to them.

Assuming that they are trying to get physical merchandise from somebody where it is being sent to a physical address of some kind as their way of being able to gain money from this scam.  By double spending, the attacker is assuming that they are going to be receiving the merchandise in spite of the merchant not receiving payment.  When the merchant realizes that the transaction is invalid (you don't even need to be reading the forums to notice that fact... contrary to what was said in the article earlier) they are going to either withhold shipment (and announce a strange set of blocks on the forums if they are thinking clearly or at least saying WTF happened to my transaction!) or they can then notify the shipping agent they are using that some sort of fraud was going on with the package and "request" that the package be returned or discarded and not sent to the addressee.  Either way, the scammer isn't going to get the merchandise and at worst is only wasting somebody's time or forcing a merchant to lose some money.

Furthermore, fraud can certainly be prosecuted under current laws.  Nothing new even needs to be passed in terms of going after these scammers legally in most countries and jurisdictions.  This is indeed very much within the legal definition of fraud and can be proven in court and certainly explained to law enforcement as if a "check" bounced and that payment failed or some other similar kind of explanation until you have to get inside of a court room.  You might be able to attack the validity of Bitcoins as a payment method, but certainly the fact that something of value was transmitted in exchange for something else of value, but then that "something" (in this bitcoins) was not in fact actually transferred would be considered fraud.  I would also argue that typically a judge in this situation would recognize Bitcoins as a valid payment method, at least if you can get somebody to explain what exactly is Bitcoins in simple terms that can be told to a jury without getting into the gritty details.  That both parties thought Bitcoins had value is the only legal question that would have to be asked in this case.

Some idiot presuming that the court system will stay away from you merely because you are using Bitcoins may have cold hard reality facing down upon themselves.  It isn't that this could be illegal, I'm suggesting that an attack of this nature would be illegal already and in fact is.  If you want chapter and verse, at least specify jurisdiction if you want me to give you an answer.  I can think of several laws this would violate and in at least America nearly a dozen law enforcement agencies who would all have jurisdiction too in any given town depending on what was sold and how it was shipped.

It is possible that somebody really thinking this through might set up dead drop mailboxes and have other ways to launder the merchandise, but we aren't talking check kiting here that can take a day or two and up to a couple of weeks to detect.

In short, the author of this piece is completely clueless about Bitcoins and doesn't know what he is talking about.  A good try, and certainly there are ways to scam Bitcoins from people who are unsuspecting, but trying to do that through an attack on the system in the nature described is not only a waste of time, but dangerous to do even from a legal standpoint where the risk on the ROI is far greater than even presumed as with potential criminal penalties and loss of liberty are enough to make this a negative ROI... at least with this method.  If you are going to scam, scam at least with "legitimate" transactions with something like a Ponzi scheme.

The issue of money laundering via Bitcoins is something real, but that is confusing a criticism of Bitcoins with a legal protection of some weird and perverse kind.  Just because trade in cocoa beans may or may not be legal in a jurisdiction doesn't stop a trade transaction using cocoa beans from being illegal for other reasons too.

The other issues listed in this article have been amply debunked in earlier postings on this thread and deserve no further analysis as they are equally faulty.

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January 23, 2011, 09:27:44 PM
 #54

You can't spend 400 BTC 80 times in 1 hour.  If you control a majority of the generation you could spend them twice an an hour (assuming merchants require 6 confirmations).

Why ?

There are only, on average, about 1 transaction every 10 minutes.  That is six confirmations in an hour which is the hard time limit before a transaction is confirmed.  Let's assume the attackers are real lucky and get twice that many blocks as they are doubling the generation rate.... hence only two attacks would be possible in an hour.  Maybe a few more than that by "double spending" on each block, but you would also have to "win" all of those blocks too.

BTW, attempts to double spend coins would be ignored once the "attack" is over with likely a bunch of competing chains floating around the network temporarily while nodes are analyzing the transactions, but once the double spending filters are applied to the transactions the double spending transactions and blocks associated with those transactions will be culled... as if the attack never happened in the first place.

It would essentially be wasted CPU effort and even the bitcoins "earned" by winning a block would be discarded too.  It is as pointless of an attack as I've ever seen proposed.

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January 24, 2011, 12:44:27 AM
 #55

This just occurred to me.  The existing 150 Ghash/s network costs just $144 per hour.

There were 165 blocks created in the past 24 hours (per Bitcoin Watch) and each earned 50 BTC.  That means 8,250 BTC were paid to those mining.  At BTC/USD currently at $0.42 each, that's $3,465 per day that is paid for a network that will do 150 Ghash/s.

So why does Amazon charge seventy times as much?   :-)

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January 24, 2011, 01:04:34 AM
 #56

This just occurred to me.  The existing 150 Ghash/s network costs just $144 per hour.

Interesting when one considers it that way.  So what about a parallel currency whose exchange rate is being subsidized such that mining the new parallel currency is more profitable than mining Bitcoin currently is?

In other words can enough of Bitcoin's miners be seduced into switching to a new parallel currency such that Bitcoin becomes vulnerable?

Maybe that quora question's part 3 (#3. Competition) merits further discussion?

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January 24, 2011, 01:08:00 AM
 #57

This is all about perceived value (miners hope to gain much more than the current value) and flexibility (amazon offers more than computing hashes).

Art experiment with bitcoins: http://greta.electricgoat.net
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January 24, 2011, 07:37:57 AM
 #58

Posted by Sebastiano Scròfina, a decentral banker at kakigarden.com

kakigarden.com redirects to a facebook page.

Why should I read anything more from someone who does that ?
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January 24, 2011, 09:18:50 AM
 #59

Posted by Sebastiano Scròfina, a decentral banker at kakigarden.com

kakigarden.com redirects to a facebook page.

Why should I read anything more from someone who does that ?
Because ideas matter Smiley

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