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Author Topic: Keep it real now the investors are coming onboard  (Read 5219 times)
BillX
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July 21, 2011, 07:17:39 PM
 #21

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

I think it was to refute the assertion made by another poster that, "In the past month, the value has tenfolded."  A chart cannot spread negativity, it only represents historical data.  I understand Nagle is a Bitcoin bear, but in this case, he's right.

And I don't dispute that, but it's a bit tiresome to see double posts across threads saying the same thing. More importantly a little elaboration wouldn't hurt, how does this post bubble decline compare to other historical bubbles, what else is interesting around his assertions.

I personally lived through the Irish housing bubble, saw money flow like water, big deals being done, and an entire society hang itself on the permanently high plateau assumption. Most people who bought in to that are now trapped in upwards of 150K Eur negative equity.

To call the 30$ blip a bubble is a bit disengenous, bitcoin never reached any of the conditions outlined above, and fell quicker then gave people a chance to assume the bubble mentality of PHP.

So you'll forgive me if I'm a little suspicious when the Bear comes around blowing bubbles on the weekends......

So are you saying bitcoins are as big a mover and shaker as Irish real estate?
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July 21, 2011, 07:18:03 PM
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Never bring up reality in a bitcoin forum. They have no concept as to what that is.

And never present facts to shills and trolls. It will only make them crawl back under their bridges.

If you bothered to look at the article I was quoting from it was written in late May. At that point the quote was factual.

And heres a market analysis lesson for you (Don't get too excited about the drop in price over the last 6 weeks. Its a market commodity. This is what happens everyday in a free market). Google 'trading swings and roundabouts'. Here's an article to get you started http://askjooga.com/understanding-the-swings-and-roundabouts-of-the-stock-exchange/ - its all perfectly normal. Now go away and play..

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imperi
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July 21, 2011, 07:29:35 PM
 #23


Never bring up reality in a bitcoin forum. They have no concept as to what that is.

And never present facts to shills and trolls. It will only make them crawl back under their bridges.

If you bothered to look at the article I was quoting from it was written in late May. At that point the quote was factual.

And heres a market analysis lesson for you (Don't get too excited about the drop in price over the last 6 weeks. Its a market commodity. This is what happens everyday in a free market). Google 'trading swings and roundabouts'. Here's an article to get you started http://askjooga.com/understanding-the-swings-and-roundabouts-of-the-stock-exchange/ - its all perfectly normal. Now go away and play..

By the way... the time traveler in your sig is the best thing ever.
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July 21, 2011, 07:43:43 PM
 #24

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

I think it was to refute the assertion made by another poster that, "In the past month, the value has tenfolded."  A chart cannot spread negativity, it only represents historical data.  I understand Nagle is a Bitcoin bear, but in this case, he's right.

And I don't dispute that, but it's a bit tiresome to see double posts across threads saying the same thing. More importantly a little elaboration wouldn't hurt, how does this post bubble decline compare to other historical bubbles, what else is interesting around his assertions.

I personally lived through the Irish housing bubble, saw money flow like water, big deals being done, and an entire society hang itself on the permanently high plateau assumption. Most people who bought in to that are now trapped in upwards of 150K Eur negative equity.

To call the 30$ blip a bubble is a bit disengenous, bitcoin never reached any of the conditions outlined above, and fell quicker then gave people a chance to assume the bubble mentality of PHP.

So you'll forgive me if I'm a little suspicious when the Bear comes around blowing bubbles on the weekends......

So are you saying bitcoins are as big a mover and shaker as Irish real estate?
No and I fail to see how you could interpret as such. What I am saying is that bubbles are a prolonged mass psychological phenomenon and that bitcoin to date has merely been a blip on the radar in comparison. 

Put it this way, if bitcoin were a true bubble, there would be no entertaining viewpoints such as Nagles, and the ratios of pro/anti would be somewhere in the region of 1/100 or more. This clearly isn't the case. A few hold the bubble view here, but most are quite happy to say that it came from nothing and can go back to nothing.....this wouldn't happen in a true bubble effect.
BillX
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July 21, 2011, 07:53:41 PM
 #25

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

I think it was to refute the assertion made by another poster that, "In the past month, the value has tenfolded."  A chart cannot spread negativity, it only represents historical data.  I understand Nagle is a Bitcoin bear, but in this case, he's right.

And I don't dispute that, but it's a bit tiresome to see double posts across threads saying the same thing. More importantly a little elaboration wouldn't hurt, how does this post bubble decline compare to other historical bubbles, what else is interesting around his assertions.

I personally lived through the Irish housing bubble, saw money flow like water, big deals being done, and an entire society hang itself on the permanently high plateau assumption. Most people who bought in to that are now trapped in upwards of 150K Eur negative equity.

To call the 30$ blip a bubble is a bit disengenous, bitcoin never reached any of the conditions outlined above, and fell quicker then gave people a chance to assume the bubble mentality of PHP.

So you'll forgive me if I'm a little suspicious when the Bear comes around blowing bubbles on the weekends......

So are you saying bitcoins are as big a mover and shaker as Irish real estate?
No and I fail to see how you could interpret as such. What I am saying is that bubbles are a prolonged mass psychological phenomenon and that bitcoin to date has merely been a blip on the radar in comparison. 

Put it this way, if bitcoin were a true bubble, there would be no entertaining viewpoints such as Nagles, and the ratios of pro/anti would be somewhere in the region of 1/100 or more. This clearly isn't the case. A few hold the bubble view here, but most are quite happy to say that it came from nothing and can go back to nothing.....this wouldn't happen in a true bubble effect.

Ok, I see what youre saying now and I do agree, its not a really a bubble (though im sure that can be argued because of small scale of bitcoin) but more like a "Pump and Dump" that was done innocently by media hype and not criminal activity.
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July 21, 2011, 07:59:34 PM
 #26


By the way... the time traveler in your sig is the best thing ever.

 Grin

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July 23, 2011, 11:57:40 AM
 #27

Like I said, please keep it real.

That means no charts, no hype, no hysteria,

 just keep using it for everyday things.

Bitcoin isn't a panacea, it's still money, with all the problems that money creates.

Money is like digital in an analogue world. No matter how accurate you try to bring the resolution up, trying to transmit thoughts and feelings with it, it doesn't fit, magnifying and resonating the communication. Like a sandy bottom in the sea it resonates into waves on the surface of nature.
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July 23, 2011, 02:38:33 PM
 #28

Of course the rise to $32 was a bubble! Time scales don't matter, symmetry does.


Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008

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YoYa
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July 23, 2011, 02:55:13 PM
 #29

Of course the rise to $32 was a bubble! Time scales don't matter, symmetry does.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008

Nice, you're the first one to say bubble and back it up with a suitable overlay. Given the vast difference in timescales, this makes things quite interesting assuming we're past the post peak dip. Looking at the Nasdaq after the bubble, it since grown toward the 2000 mark, will be interesting to  see if bitcoin takes on the same steady growth or if we'll see more peaks again(assuming it doesn't fall or meltdown).

Cheers.
netrin
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July 23, 2011, 03:51:56 PM
 #30

Of course the rise to $32 was a bubble! Time scales don't matter, symmetry does.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008

Nice, you're the first one to say bubble and back it up with a suitable overlay. Given the vast difference in timescales, this makes things quite interesting assuming we're past the post peak dip. Looking at the Nasdaq after the bubble, it since grown toward the 2000 mark, will be interesting to  see if bitcoin takes on the same steady growth or if we'll see more peaks again(assuming it doesn't fall or meltdown).

Please excuse the clutter. I've posted this elsewhere, but I think it's equally relevant here. Bitcoin has experienced three such plateaus after a run up, overshoot, and small collapse. The general seasonal trend however is exponential gains and I see no reason to expect the pattern to stop until the bitcoin economy either reaches mainstream/saturation or fails completely. In annual terms, I think we are very low on the sigmoid curve, but we'd need a few years to prove that assertion right or wrong.



Note that 2008 was the year the housing bubble collapsed (after easing the tech bubble fall out) and the global economy tanked. I don't think there is any such analogy to the bitcoin economy. If anything it indicates the impetus upon which bitcoin was born (3 January, 2009)

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bitcola
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July 23, 2011, 04:47:15 PM
 #31

"Investors coming on board"?

Don't make me laugh. There are no investors coming on board right now.

Perhaps in future but not now.
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