Predicting future Bitcoin Price

[bb113]

So in the example you just gave, when you sample the first step the chance of choosing any one of the "closest 10 samples" is 1/10 or 10%?

[bb113]

So in the example you just gave, when you sample the first step the chance of choosing any one of the "closest 10 samples" is 1/10 or 10%?

Or whatever testing shows to be the most effective sample size. But yes, the first steps would refer to the shortest history.

I was trying to get at whether all bins were equally likely to be selected or not.

[bb113]

it seems that projections based on samples from highly correlated sequences tend to produce a higher posterior divergence than those with a lower correlation.

Ok, almost there. So what do you mean by sequence. Sequence of bins? Or are you referring to the sequence of price moves within the bin?