Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

Dear Bitcoiners,

We are a team of technical traders from South America.

After Three months of sharing our pre market and post market analysis (Spanish/Mercado y Economia/Videoblog Anlisis Tecnico) with over 80% accuracy for the whole Spanish speaking community we decided that it's time to share our knowledge with English speaking community.
Our purpose is only to share our readings with you all and show the opportunities that we believe based on our trading methodology and trading plan the Bitcoin market is creating for all of us.
We use MtGox charts for several reasons.
Why?

• It the best and only source with the most amount of data to read based on technical analysis at the moment
• The way MtGox charts moves, every single trading platform follows. So be bias until some one else has more account holders and more liquidity than MtGox

The last two statements are not mine, that's the market expressing it's own behavior and I've just read what the candle sticks are saying.
I know that our analysis will create question, concerns and critics and I will be happy to assist you all if I can, based on my small knowledge compare to every one out there.

Donations and tips are up to you.
we are not doing this to impress you or any one out there and the reason for doing what we do is because we believe that knowledge belongs to the whole world and it should be share without tags on it but, if you find that our videoblogs are helping you to increase your profitability do some charity with your friends or family even around your own community and spread the word about Bitcoin so we all can get out of this miserable, poisonous and deadly economy we all live in.

We wish you all the best posisible success that Bitcoin can bring to your wallets.

P.S: “It is only about things that do not interest one, that one can give a really unbiassed opinion; and this is no doubt the reason why an unbiased opinion is always valueless.”
― Oscar Wilde,

[1680270388]

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[1680270388]

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[1680270388]

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[balanghai]

is this the website of the group you mentioned: https://mundobitcoin.org/?

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

"P" formation in all the main charts.The bullish formation still keeping the main hypothesis alive.

All the time frames are in coordination with this particular P formation and it's helping the previous hypothesis to stay active and in the event the such consolidations breaks up and reaches $145.00 then the next target will be the main resistance $148.91.
The major resistance is the main one for the monthly, weekly and daily chart so that's why it's taking its time to absorb this entire area.

http://youtu.be/aCZFZjPDaGk

[Dealdialonline]

Nice. Thanks for an excellent analysis.

[smoothie]

Does your technical analysis take into account fundamentals like solvency, legal proceedings, etc when determining what data feed to use?

[Lucano]

Does your technical analysis take into account fundamentals like solvency, legal proceedings, etc when determining what data feed to use?

The analysis is strictly technical.
Your talking about solvency (Liquidity). The currency still erratic in small time frames such as 60(No so much) 15/5/3 minutes.

• Legal proceedings- i don't know what do you mean.
• what data feed to use..."It the best and only source with the most amount of data to read based on technical analysis at the moment
  The way MtGox charts moves, every single trading platform follows. So be bias until some one else has more account holders and more liquidity than MtGox"
  

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The recommendation of a long trade yesterday only manage to hit one target. Risk/Reward 1:1.
However, the 60 minutes chart is showing a possible new behavior which involve the SMA 200.
That behavior it's called "Riding the SMA200" and if that happens we still have a chance to see the price going towards the major resistance ($148.61) which is the intraday hypothesis for us.

Here the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/1X_1Y1cyJH4

[bitcoin44me]

Only technical analysis?
What is it worth in a bitcoin market driven by manipulation, and fundamentals?

[MoreFun]

Only technical analysis?
What is it worth in a bitcoin market driven by manipulation, and fundamentals?

How can you do short-term analysis when fundamentals haven't changed for half year or so (except gox problems)? Always up or what?

[Lucano]

Good Evening Bitcoiners,

Sell off.

Our main hypothesis for the day was no possible thanks to the Lower high created in the 60 minute chart.
The over extended down movement in 240 minute chart was looking toward the SMA 200 and could be using the SMA 200 to go up and build the next pivot (Lower high) to continue with the down trend towards $129.00
If the next formation denies the previous sell of on at least 60%, it's possible that we all see the price bounce back to resistance area and it that case will be  $138.00

Here the Post Market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayIWI35ICeQ&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[marcovaldo]

Thanks for the analysis

[Spekulatius]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

[Lucano]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

Pre Market: it's only due the fact that I'm starting my trading day.
Post Market: pretty much about what happened and what we did.

About indicators:
Too much analysis too much paralysis.
I would love to have more indicators to use here but so far I dont use them and to be honest it keeps me away to be too bias.
As far as I know, an indicator is good when you have evidence and results to back up such indicator and so far I haven't seen one for Bitcoin.
I would love to see some of those to test them in the field.

P.S: Thank you for watching 

[Spekulatius]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

Pre Market: it's only due the fact that I'm starting my trading day.
Post Market: pretty much about what happened and what we did.

About indicators:
Too much analysis too much paralysis.
I would love to have more indicators to use here but so far I dont use them and to be honest it keeps me away to be too bias.
As far as I know, an indicator is good when you have evidence and results to back up such indicator and so far I haven't seen one for Bitcoin.
I would love to see some of those to test them in the field.

P.S: Thank you for watching 

I did some backtesting of many indicators on BTC myself, so far

I can suggest:
PSAR (depending on your trading mode, I do swing trading in short-mid term intervals, therfore I go with 0.04, 0.04, 0.1 on tradingview for 4hr intervals)
EMA (10, close) in 2hr
EMA (21, close) in 2hr
Bollinger Band (20, close, 2) any hr
RSI (14, close) any hr, makes sense from 2hr upwards

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A break up failure was creating the perfect conditions to initiated a sell off that we experience yesterday.

The price visited the SMA 200 in the 240 minutes and the movement was over extended with over 9 candle sticks.
Such visit to the SMA 200 is creating several hypothesis that we need to take into consideration.

• The price can use the SMA 200 as a main support and go up to create the first Lower High. such Lower high can fail and instead the price will consolidate around the $138.00 price.
• Again, using the SMA 200 as a main support the price will intent to create a new Lower high and it could fail. Instead the price will deny the previos sell off and it will go up again looking to hit the $142.00 price.

The third and last hypothesis could be that the continuation of the sell off and it can build a new Lower High in 240 minutes chart with a possible visit towards $124/12100 price.
For this last hypothesis we need to see the previous two hypotesis not happening int the 240.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/FI7dwB_R_4k

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last week end up keeping the price below $145.00 and it didn't allow the buyers to take control and push the price towards the major resistance. Instead, the price manage to create a lower high in the 60 minute chart which created the perfect conditions for the sell off we all experienced in the market.
The riding price that involved the SMA 200 didn't happen in the 60 minutes chart in previous sessions, instead of using the 60 minutes chart, it happened and still happening in the 240 minutes chart which still building a consolidation and still using the SMA 200 as a main support to keep putting pressure to either break up or down.
The weekly chart still showing a Bullish flag that keeps getting more narrow in it's own formation regardless of the SMA's 10-20 showing divergence the price still and the macro trend still bullish.
I'm taking into consideration the main charts here which are Weekly, 3 days (Clarkmoody) and daily.
The 3 day chart shows a formation that it can create the Higher Low that can take the price towards $148.00 and upwards.

The bearish hypothesis could happened when the conoslidation in the 4 hour chart and the "b" formation in the daily chart generates prices below $130.00 and then the penetration which can be seen first in the 60 minutes chart can create a new lower high that can take the price to $128.20 as a point of reaction and then $125.00 could be the target with a possible second target around $122.00

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/WusHalhTylw

[afbitcoins]

Nice work 

[Lucano]

Nice work 

Thank you.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The consolidation keeps the price between margins ($3-5) and at the same time the price still weak and it seems that the consolidation will continue for a while.

The daily chart shows with the "b" formation a particular pattern, with daily candles sticks showing bottom tales and it seems that buyers and market makers still trying to load orders and if that's the case that can help a possible break up around $135.00
If such break up happen we can look for a next Higher Low in the 60 minute chart to go long towards $140.00

The bearish hypothesis still intact and if the price break down $130.00 it will be possible for the pull back to go towards $125/122.00

Watching something very important that it's happening for the last four days and it's the low liquidity that it's making time frames such as the 60 minutes chart extremely erratic.
It's very evident that some external facts are happening such as Atlantis and BTC-TC.
I'm a technical trader and as long as I don't have an solid evidence that this two situations are related with MtGox it self I've just have to keep reading the charts and so far the pull back its clear and evident.

The three day chart still showing possible Higher Low and if gets active it can take the price back on track towards Major resistances.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/alRpCnmDJyw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Early this morning we saw how the consolidation was penetrated after a break down failure in the 60 minute chart.
11 red candles stick were denial by only four green candles sticks in the 60 minutes chart.
This particular formation was showing a powerful movement in the 240 minutes chart and still keeping the momentum going towards new highs.
Regardless how erratic 60 minute chart was, such time frame still very important and vital for the readings.

A break down failure, a denial of the previous formation, a visit to the SMA 200 in one uptrend, a first higher low breaking through and finally the price is using the SMA 200 as support building a second higher low.
Seems to me that the next time frame to watch is the 240 minute chart to find a new entry when the first higher low gets created and the pattern can direct the price towards $142.23 which is the max highs for the main resistance.
It's not simple and easy as it sounds but taking into consideration several charts and the formations we see so far, the uptrend can be possible.

Last but not least, the 3 day chart shows a new higher low active and in completed motion towards the top tales but, first it has to penetrated bodies and the top tales.

We should have action for a while.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/8q2IgjuGO0Y

P.S: waiting for the new mic to arrived today.  

[Its About Sharing]

Enjoyed watching some of your videos. Nice Candle interpretations.
Hopefully we can break up and out of the forming triangle/pennant...

Thanks for sharing,
IAS

[Lucano]

Enjoyed watching some of your videos. Nice Candle interpretations.
Hopefully we can break up and out of the forming triangle/pennant...

Thanks for sharing,
IAS

Thank you for watching  BTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The market is not showing signs of reaction yet.

The daily candle stick of yesterday's market session have a top tale and it seems more like its absorbing the major resistance and it could be a positive signal towards a potential up trend.
The 240 minute chart still have the higher low active and it's consolidating above the SMA 200.
The 60 minutes chart is doing the same in terms of consolidation and is using the SMA 200 a main suppoort.
have this two chart giving me the same reading could be a positive signal for a potential uptrend in the next trading hours.

Yesterdays break up manage to visit the bottom tales of the major resistance and for that reason I'm not surprise that the price is absorbing bottom tales first which is the most difficult part and after the bodies will be next.

For a bearish trend, I have to see a pull back and a possible denial of the previous higher low in the 240 minutes chart to see the price go towards $132.00 one more time.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/5ijTSSocQag

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The break up towards the new highs was denail by a high volatility.
the price is respecting the SMA 200 in 240 and 60 minutes charts.

P.S: small delay today and a technical issue. apologize.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/jBQRgULNwO0

[Spekulatius]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The break up towards the new highs was denail by a high volatility.
the price is respecting the SMA 200 in 240 and 60 minutes charts.

P.S: small delay today and a technical issue. apologize.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/jBQRgULNwO0

Hi,

You say around 1:30 that the high volatility price action is "unusual". From a textbook technical trading perspective I would agree but from a Bitcoin perspective Im not. This is totally normal for the Bitcoin market on Mt.Gox. It happens alot even in larger time frames. What is decicive is the grander movement direction, not the outliers. In this regard price follows its general direction as expected even if this general uptrend is "technically" broken.

I dont follow every update of yours so I may have overlooked it, but do you actually pay any attention to chart patterns and tend lines?
They have proven to be the most reliable of all charting techniques and indicators to me.

Take a look at this obvious triangle (o which we are breaking out of atm):

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The break up towards the new highs was denail by a high volatility.
the price is respecting the SMA 200 in 240 and 60 minutes charts.

P.S: small delay today and a technical issue. apologize.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/jBQRgULNwO0

Hi,

You say around 1:30 that the high volatility price action is "unusual". From a textbook technical trading perspective I would agree but from a Bitcoin perspective Im not. This is totally normal for the Bitcoin market on Mt.Gox. It happens alot even in larger time frames. What is decicive is the grander movement direction, not the outliers. In this regard price follows its general direction as expected even if this general uptrend is "technically" broken.

I dont follow every update of yours so I may have overlooked it, but do you actually pay any attention to chart patterns and tend lines?
They have proven to be the most reliable of all charting techniques and indicators to me.

Take a look at this obvious triangle (o which we are breaking out of atm):

Good Morning,
It is good to see how Bitcoin changes the entire concept of classic chartism in certain areas but not in one that for me it's very important. Human sentiment.
As you know, the market only moves in four directions and the human behavior and human sentiment still have a major role towards the trends we see with Bitcoin.
Indifference, greed, uncertainty and panic are always part of the graphics and the auction towards the price it's always the main objective for market makers and the rest of us.

In terms of chat patterns and trend lines, I read multiple time frames to act within the market and my trading decisions can vary from intraday, swing or core trades. It all depends what, the monthly, weekly, daily a 240 minute charts are showing in terms of technical reading, even the 60 minute chart is a great source of information when it's not too erratic.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

the weekly analysis shows a currency in full control by the buyers and again we witnessed an important recovery with the price in the last market sessions.

In few hours September will be history and so far I've seen several formations in the main charts (M/W/D/4H) that shows a bullish sentiment intact and with potential towards high prices ($150.00 is my main target).

The monthly chart shows a candle stick leaving a long bottom tale and a small body, kind of like a hammer and in the event that such candle stock stays in with same shape, I will take that as a signal of a continuation of the uptrend towards prices over $150/155.00

In the hand, last weekly candle stick and the entire bullish flag manage to activate a movement that generate new highs, it's keeping the price around major resistance and the penetration manage to reached the top tales of the major resistance which is bonus to facilitate a possible the penetration towards $148.91

the three day candle stick closed with the price right on top of the major resistance and that behavior is exactly the same behavior that the weekly chart generated.
The 3 day chart and it's higher low still have room to go up but don't forget that we are dealing with a major resistance at this point but the potential uptrend still right in front of us.

This week we will see possible pullbacks because of the over extended uptrend in the daily chart, but as long as the price still above $140.00 the potential for a new uptrend is huge and we will maintain the macro hypothesis towards $155.00 during the course of the new month.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/i7wKkT6yiu4

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Today we see a currency with a pull back towards $140.00 and still respecting the SMA 200 in the three major time frames (daily/4H/60M).
The daily chart shows a possible higher low in construction and in the event of activation ($144.44 entry point) can take the price towards $148.00+.
But, because the previous daily up trend was over extended (6 green daily candle sticks)  the entry can fail and instead of going toward new highs we could see a possible pull back toward $138.00 again and keep consolidating a bit longer until a new higher low appears.

Keeping in mind the daily chart will continue the analysis with the 240 minutes chart and because of the previous over extended down trend (again more than three red candle sticks) the new Lower High has not reach it's final destination which is $135.00 and instead of going down, still consolidating more and it's creating another formation which is call a "b" formation.

The 60 minutes chart is the zoom in of the 240 minutes chart and we see a huge consolidations that it hasn't been able to breakdown and if it does it has to visit $138.12 and build a new Lower high to reconsider not to go Long for a while.

to buy and keep going long I will wait until the main consolidation in the 60 minutes chart breaks up and keep the price above $141.94, then I will look for the next higher low in 60/240 minutes and only then I will place the order.

so far the market is doing what is normal at this point which is creating the pull backs and consolidating in order to build the higher low that the daily chart needs to keep going towards $150.00

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/8kbsO0HBGog

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The recovery of the currency was almost immediately after the historical sell off last week.
We see several patterns created after the sell off that we believed are important to take into consideration for future trades.

The weekly chart is showing a possible Higher Low in formation and if that pattern gets activated with an uptrend, there is two targets for this pattern to visit ($145/148.00000) and after that $150 will be something more realistic for the movement to be able to reach.

The daily chart is showing that the previous pull back was denial by the new up trend and such movement manage to penetrate more than 80% of the previous down trend and the still still above the previous resistance ($131/135.00000).
If the price stay in the same areas ($131/135) that will help in the construction of the new higher loe in the daily chart and pattern will just validate what the weekly chart is doing right now and the movement will hit $145.81000 but the main target for the higher low should be $148.91000.
Remember that this is the daily chart and each day is a market session so be patience.

Last but not least, the down trend hypothesis will be possible if the price penetrate below $131.00000 and if that happens a next lower high in the 240 minutes chart can take the price towards $121.00000.

The bullish sentiment still intact and it seems that the buyers will keep the control  for a bit longer until the trading books look more positive than last week.

This is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/cSKFGVR2t7s

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday's Market was keeping the price between supports and resistance and the SMA 200 was the main star use by the price in the 240/60 charts.

The daily chart created new highs and compare to the last two market sessions still sending positive signals such as a "P" formation and a potential Higher Low in the daily chart.
In the 240 minutes chart the price continues riding the SMA 200 and still using it as a support for a potential break up. $139,00000 it's the price to penetrate today and if that happen that will be the beginning of a new possible higher low in 60/240 chart.
The 60 minutes chart still have the same formation that the 240 minutes chart is showing us as we speak and it keeps riding the SMA 200 and using it as support for a possible break up.

Last but not least, new opportunities for long trades will come if the price penetrates the $139 and if that happened a next Higher Low in 60/240 can potentially take the price towards $145.81000.

The down trend Hypothesis will originate a possible Lower High is the price breaks down and visit $131.00000. But we have to take into consideration that possible movement can create enough volatility to bring buyers and market maker back again to try to take control and eventually the price will back up again to the previous consolidation and this is because the Macro trend and the main charts (weekly/Daily) still showing a bullish trend.

Here, the Pre Market Analysis

http://youtu.be/2s59yiydEt4

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

We woke up with the price reaching new highs in the daily chart compare to previous sessions.
The 240 minutes chart is showing a long range candle stick breaking the consolidation up and setting up a possible new up trend for the next few hours of market.
The signals that this particular movement is giving us plus the the fact that the 240 minutes candle stick manage to denial a previous lower high pivot and a break down failure it's something we see as a positive sign for the price towards new highs.
With the Intraday session will see a possible new Higher Low in the 240/60 minutes chart and if that happen we will probably see the price visiting the $145 as a first target.
Having said that, it's important to keep the main objective for this whole up trend on record. $148.91 it's the area to be challenge and if the price continues with this positive signs I dont see why not the price should go towards that major resistance.

Here, the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/Kb_EjiDrwOw

[viriat0]

Great Analysis,

thanks

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The daily chart manage to build a new Higher Low and the price keeps penetrating the $145 area which is a minor resistance and the price has several obstacles to reach the next target which is a very important one in order to reach the main objective. $148.91000

The 240 minutes chart also created a new higher low and it helps the price to reach new high (142.50000) which is another positive sign towards the two targets for the week ($145/148) and the 60 Minutes chart still erratic compare to the other main charts and it's more difficult to operate because of the high volatility

Long story short, we still have a bullish market ahead and a very strong one. The minor resistance ($145.00000) could be history if the price keeps the penetration going and this behavior could help to keep the main hypothesis to stay the same which is the possibility to see the price visiting $148.91.

Here, The pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/7N_-QThuZt4

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The consolidation keeps the price over $140 and the 240/60 minutes chart with the hypothesis of long trades still active towards $145 and possibly $148.00000
The weekend is here and the uncertainty still strong and now we MtGox offline today, it will be not surprise if the volatility comes back. Let's wait and see.

Different forecasts in regards where the price is going will see every where but we have to understand that the price reach the minor and major resistance just now.
The most particular thing is that the price is trying to take control of the sellers as we speak and we can see the areas in the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
$148.91 as a major resistance is not too far from where the actual prices is fluctuating right now.

Time will tell is our forecast will succeed but at this point the market still bullish and the up trend can continue.

Here, the market analysis.

http://youtu.be/ckK0o4VACL0

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

After the penetration ($148.91) the price still creating new highs and the up trend continues towards a new target, $166.43

The new price target is not impossible because there is not obstacles for the price to reach that target and the next point of reaction based on the analysis it's definitely $166.43000
The daily time frame and the 240 minutes chart, they both look over-extented and it's still creating new highs and shows no signs of retracement.

This week could end up with the buyer in full control of the price and during the course of the week it's probably that new higher lows can help the price and reinforce the up trend towards the new major target for the new higher low in the weekly chart $163.43000.

Here, The Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/ew3eQSsGt44

[Its About Sharing]

Another great video.

Appreciate the information and candle education...

IAS

[viriat0]

Great information

Thanks Lucano!

[Lucano]

Another great video.

Appreciate the information and candle education...

IAS

[Lucano]

Great information

Thanks Lucano!

[Interjekcion]

Look like alot of good info. Will have to read into it later when I'm off work.
/watch

[Lucano]

Look like alot of good info. Will have to read into it later when I'm off work.
/watch

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Buyers are in full control and it seems like the next target could be $155.00.
Consolidations in 240/60 charts are advising a posible reaction in the $155.00 area.

We see over-buying signs are more significant at this point and the SMA's (10.20) look with some divergence.
$155.00 it's for me an intra-day target and watching the consolidation in 240/60 charts at this point in time it will probably bring volatility if the price reaches the target

The 60 minutes chart is showing less erratic movements and the last long range green candle could be the one who helps the movement to reach the target.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/x7LKW_kDBnU

[viriat0]

Thanks one more time!

Great information! keep up!

[Its About Sharing]

Hey Lucano,

Request if I may? I used to trade just by candles alone and took a few years off. I have to say, you have a very good way of communicating the candles. Brought a lot back to me.
You are basically already helping to educate many people with how you do your candles, but if you have another 5 mins, maybe you could make a Tutorial video talking about what you
are looking for in the BTC chart (Candle wise), patterns, going deeper (again) into the different periods, etc. (Maybe looking back and comparing charts, for example). Regardless, much appreciated.

IAS

[Lucano]

Thanks one more time!

Great information! keep up!

[Lucano]

Hey Lucano,

Request if I may? I used to trade just by candles alone and took a few years off. I have to say, you have a very good way of communicating the candles. Brought a lot back to me.
You are basically already helping to educate many people with how you do your candles, but if you have another 5 mins, maybe you could make a Tutorial video talking about what you
are looking for in the BTC chart (Candle wise), patterns, going deeper (again) into the different periods, etc. (Maybe looking back and comparing charts, for example). Regardless, much appreciated.

IAS

We are working on the translation of our site into English and we are also working on new services to offer to the community.

P.S: I'm glad to heard that the service is helping the community. Thank you for your suggestions. 

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

The weekly hypothesis is working and it reach more than 80% of the main target. $166.43

The daily chart is showing and extended up trend and exhaustion at the same time which will hep the price to have a paused and pull back to build the next higher low and consolidation.
Remeber the an extended trend usually fails to build the first pivot.

The 240 minutes chart is showing the same situation that the daily chart is showing. the next higher low can fail and if that the continuation of the pull back can reach $153.00
I personally believe that the price can start moving between supports and resistance but I need to wait for the 240 minutes chart candle stick to finished and the possible higher low failure to set support prices to look for new opportunities.

And finally, the price in the 60 minutes chart is showing a pull back that it manage to visit $156.92 and so far the movement has not been so deep and over extended but, we still need to wait for the main charts (240/Daily) to show us more solid patterns to take position and go with the trend.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/w5ZAwwXMAKQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday the price was having a lot a volatility to deal with and it was not possible to reach $163.00

A pause in the up trend is important, healthy and it can help the currency to create new patterns in the daily and 240 minutes chart towards the main target.

The daily chart left a red candle stick yesterday with top and bottom tales but more important the red body is trap in the previous green candle and that for me is a positive indication that a future consolidation is on it's way.
240 minutes chart gave us a sell off yesterday and it manage to penetrate a minor support ($153/147).
The price will take it's time to penetrate the previous sell off and if market makers are already out of the up trend, that means that it will take some few market sessions for the price to go back up on our screens and reach the $166.43.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/oA75PpIvIGg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The daily chart is showing us a formation that it could help to build the higher low for this chart and eventually it will take the price towards $163.43.
240 minutes charts shows a bullish flag or a "P" formation that it helps the up trend to keep the consolidation in good areas and it helps the penetration to succeed.
60 minutes chart show a bullish flag which is the "P" formation of the 4 hours chart and keeps the price up towards the main target.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/2lAjmTaobbc

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Four extraordinary days with a significant up trend and the price break up from $154.00 and it didn't stop until it set new highs $195.00 to be more precise.

The up trend is contagious and it can definitely bring more new participants and the price can have another rally towards $200.00

The minthly chart is showing this Octuber with a long range candle stick and no obstacles on the left hand side and to more technical at this point, the price in the monthly chart only has one target. $266.00
As a technical analyst I have to reconsider going long right now with an over extended trend. There is too much risk involve at this point and the bubble starts to show up as we speak.
The daily chart shows the sma's (10,20) with a big divergency and the sma 200 it's vary far from the price.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/UMLkeY3xwR0

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price reach $200.00 and there is not obstacle to stop the currency to reach higher prices.

The most significant part to take into consideration today is the fact that the SMA's (10/20) are divergent right now and the SMA 200 is just too far from the price right now.

It's possible that new higher lows start to fail in the 240/60 minutes chart but that hypothesis has nothing to gain at this point because the great demand for Bitcoin still increasing in regions such as Asia where the volume in transactions is increasing constantly.

The next technical target is $266.00 for this unstoppable movement.

But it will be no very ethical from my end to support this target right now but I have to say that the reason why I'm mentioning this target is because it's the only top tale that the price has as a main target but, that's the market and everything is possible. Any possible scenario that I share with you all today is nothing compare with the lesson of perseverance, power to the masses and versatility that Bitcoin is showing us right now.

Here, the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/wo3fEEPq4dM

[Its About Sharing]

Nice commentary once again. You are a very very structured trader. I am surprised you have not gone in during the strong up move. I understand and respect your decision but have a question for you:

Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I measure my success and failure in BTC. If I can obtain more BTC things are well. That is what I am in this for (outside of what it represents and is doing to finance as well of course.)

Anyway, following you along very closely. I am curious about pull back levels to add more to but looking back (e.g. Silk Road crash), we are on a tear. It seems that when drops happen, you have to be real quick to get in (rather you need to have open orders sitting below as the price doesn't spend much time down on the drops. I see the 165 level as possible, or rather did, but the higher we go up, the more I think a retracement is less likely down there.

Something to consider, my BTC analogy: Imagine there is only one publicly traded company on earth. It is a financial related company and it brings relief to a corrupt world. There are only 12 million shares. What is a fair price? 

Great luck and keep it up,
IAS

[Lucano]

Nice commentary once again. You are a very very structured trader. I am surprised you have not gone in during the strong up move. I understand and respect your decision but have a question for you:

Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I measure my success and failure in BTC. If I can obtain more BTC things are well. That is what I am in this for (outside of what it represents and is doing to finance as well of course.)

Anyway, following you along very closely. I am curious about pull back levels to add more to but looking back (e.g. Silk Road crash), we are on a tear. It seems that when drops happen, you have to be real quick to get in (rather you need to have open orders sitting below as the price doesn't spend much time down on the drops. I see the 165 level as possible, or rather did, but the higher we go up, the more I think a retracement is less likely down there.

Something to consider, my BTC analogy: Imagine there is only one publicly traded company on earth. It is a financial related company and it brings relief to a corrupt world. There are only 12 million shares. What is a fair price?  

Great luck and keep it up,
IAS

Thank you for the heads up.

My target was always $188.00 and to be honest with you I always try to leave the feelings at the door where I'm hanging my coat before I switch on my computer. Most of the time works but, you have your moments like any other human.

In regards your two questions Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I don't measure my success in $$ or BTCBTC.

I measure everything on %'s and If I'm above 65%  year to date that means my jobs is done.

it's definitely good to be versatile and have both $$ and BTCBTC and looking at other crypto currencies for potential opportunities.

I like your analogy, but there is one more more deep question to analyze here because the public traded company is digging towards the core of the corrupt world and the traded company has not reach 50% yet so it keeps digging until we hear the crack.

How long until the public traded company reach the core?

What is a fair price for what its done to crack the core?

Have a good evening.
Lucano.

[Its About Sharing]

Nice commentary once again. You are a very very structured trader. I am surprised you have not gone in during the strong up move. I understand and respect your decision but have a question for you:

Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I measure my success and failure in BTC. If I can obtain more BTC things are well. That is what I am in this for (outside of what it represents and is doing to finance as well of course.)

Anyway, following you along very closely. I am curious about pull back levels to add more to but looking back (e.g. Silk Road crash), we are on a tear. It seems that when drops happen, you have to be real quick to get in (rather you need to have open orders sitting below as the price doesn't spend much time down on the drops. I see the 165 level as possible, or rather did, but the higher we go up, the more I think a retracement is less likely down there.

Something to consider, my BTC analogy: Imagine there is only one publicly traded company on earth. It is a financial related company and it brings relief to a corrupt world. There are only 12 million shares. What is a fair price?  

Great luck and keep it up,
IAS

Thank you for the heads up.

My target was always $188.00 and to be honest with you I always try to leave the feelings at the door where I'm hanging my coat before I switch on my computer. Most of the time works but, you have your moments like any other human.

In regards your two questions Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I don't measure my success in $$ or BTCBTC.

I measure everything on %'s and If I'm above 65%  year to date that means my jobs is done.

it's definitely good to be versatile and have both $$ and BTCBTC and looking at other crypto currencies for potential opportunities.

I like your analogy, but there is one more more deep question to analyze here because the public traded company is digging towards the core of the corrupt world and the traded company has not reach 50% yet so it keeps digging until we hear the crack.

How long until the public traded company reach the core?

What is a fair price for what its done to crack the core?

Have a good evening.
Lucano.

eheheh, When do we hear the crack? If I understand you correctly, the recent signs of the IMF talking about a 10% "tax" on EU citizens with "positive net worth" might be the early warning signs. Chase bank and some others limiting out of country money movement might be another. I just get the feeling that either later this year or sometime next year, we are gonna have some fireworks. And they will put pressure on BTC in some way or fashion. But, they are trying to save a sinking ship and the longer we go, their chances just go down (The corrupt banking system.) If the public runs to BTC, what will the governments do? Listen to corrupt bankers who everyone hates? I think the shit hits the fan at that point and the bankers will be more concerned for their lives then holding up their corrupt system. And I don't think the military will protect them either. Times are a changin...

I think the "fair price", well that is a tough one. Right now it looks like BTC is an asset. It is starting to increase as a payment system. Can it be both? Does that make sense? I can argue both ways. I sure don't like spending my BTC! Not a good start for a payment system, but perhaps we will find a happy medium. I think it is too alarming to say a fair price for BTC, especially if it is an asset and that appears to be what it mostly is right now. But, let's say this, we won't be talking about the price per BTC. It will be fractions of BTC for practical everyday reasons. Can you imagine a market cap of 1 Trillion dollars some day? ehehehh, ok a bit crazy, but 1 trillion divided by 12 million (with growing consistent demand to keep the price stable) would put us at around $83,333 per BTC.      A more reasonable figure of 100 billion would put us at $8,000 per BTC. A market cap of 100 billion is TOTALLY believable and still small to me.

I should add one thing to my above $ or BTC question, as I factored it in to my trading "judgement". If you had just bought and held BTC, would you have more BTC now than trading? I think that clarifies things.
So, if you have 10,000 at the start of the year - that is e.g. 100 BTC. How many BTC did you finish with? That is the easiest measure of success. If you have 20,000 but only 99BTC, then you lost a BTC and money. I don't look at dollars as the goal is BTC (but oddly enough for them to increase in USD value! LOL). Relating to the above question of "When will we know?" - When BTC is near or is decoupled from the dollar. Just as gold will probably do as well.

Interesting,
IAS

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The up trend keeps going the new highs speaks for them self.

The price still respecting the SMA 10 in the 240 minutes chart that's a powerful buying sign for us.

Seems like the only limit that the currency has right now is to to be able to reach $266.00
Extended trends in all the charts and the SMA 10 showing how the price is respecting this line that is a sign of buyers in full control and no signs of pull back at the moment.
The daily chart is showing an over extended trend with no signs of possible pull backs yet.
240 minutes chart still building higher lows (more than 3 so far) and the price continues keep it's distance from the SMA 10 which indicates a very strong presence of buyers.
The 60 minutes chart is keeping the same trend as the major charts and every moment that the currency pulls back is another opportunity to buy and go long.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/KzkgNP32HG0

[Lucano]

Nice commentary once again. You are a very very structured trader. I am surprised you have not gone in during the strong up move. I understand and respect your decision but have a question for you:

Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I measure my success and failure in BTC. If I can obtain more BTC things are well. That is what I am in this for (outside of what it represents and is doing to finance as well of course.)

Anyway, following you along very closely. I am curious about pull back levels to add more to but looking back (e.g. Silk Road crash), we are on a tear. It seems that when drops happen, you have to be real quick to get in (rather you need to have open orders sitting below as the price doesn't spend much time down on the drops. I see the 165 level as possible, or rather did, but the higher we go up, the more I think a retracement is less likely down there.

Something to consider, my BTC analogy: Imagine there is only one publicly traded company on earth. It is a financial related company and it brings relief to a corrupt world. There are only 12 million shares. What is a fair price?  

Great luck and keep it up,
IAS

Thank you for the heads up.

My target was always $188.00 and to be honest with you I always try to leave the feelings at the door where I'm hanging my coat before I switch on my computer. Most of the time works but, you have your moments like any other human.

In regards your two questions Is success having more $$$ in your account or more BTC? Or something else?

I don't measure my success in $$ or BTCBTC.

I measure everything on %'s and If I'm above 65%  year to date that means my jobs is done.

it's definitely good to be versatile and have both $$ and BTCBTC and looking at other crypto currencies for potential opportunities.

I like your analogy, but there is one more more deep question to analyze here because the public traded company is digging towards the core of the corrupt world and the traded company has not reach 50% yet so it keeps digging until we hear the crack.

How long until the public traded company reach the core?

What is a fair price for what its done to crack the core?

Have a good evening.
Lucano.

eheheh, When do we hear the crack? If I understand you correctly, the recent signs of the IMF talking about a 10% "tax" on EU citizens with "positive net worth" might be the early warning signs. Chase bank and some others limiting out of country money movement might be another. I just get the feeling that either later this year or sometime next year, we are gonna have some fireworks. And they will put pressure on BTC in some way or fashion. But, they are trying to save a sinking ship and the longer we go, their chances just go down (The corrupt banking system.) If the public runs to BTC, what will the governments do? Listen to corrupt bankers who everyone hates? I think the shit hits the fan at that point and the bankers will be more concerned for their lives then holding up their corrupt system. And I don't think the military will protect them either. Times are a changin...

I think the "fair price", well that is a tough one. Right now it looks like BTC is an asset. It is starting to increase as a payment system. Can it be both? Does that make sense? I can argue both ways. I sure don't like spending my BTC! Not a good start for a payment system, but perhaps we will find a happy medium. I think it is too alarming to say a fair price for BTC, especially if it is an asset and that appears to be what it mostly is right now. But, let's say this, we won't be talking about the price per BTC. It will be fractions of BTC for practical everyday reasons. Can you imagine a market cap of 1 Trillion dollars some day? ehehehh, ok a bit crazy, but 1 trillion divided by 12 million (with growing consistent demand to keep the price stable) would put us at around $83,333 per BTC.      A more reasonable figure of 100 billion would put us at $8,000 per BTC. A market cap of 100 billion is TOTALLY believable and still small to me.

I should add one thing to my above $ or BTC question, as I factored it in to my trading "judgement". If you had just bought and held BTC, would you have more BTC now than trading? I think that clarifies things.
So, if you have 10,000 at the start of the year - that is e.g. 100 BTC. How many BTC did you finish with? That is the easiest measure of success. If you have 20,000 but only 99BTC, then you lost a BTC and money. I don't look at dollars as the goal is BTC (but oddly enough for them to increase in USD value! LOL). Relating to the above question of "When will we know?" - When BTC is near or is decoupled from the dollar. Just as gold will probably do as well.

Interesting,
IAS

Sorry for not answering back last night.
your seem very aware about the situation around us and that's what this is all about.
The devil is in the details and you just point out what it's about to come with IMF, CBE and our domestic banking and financial system. We, the masses are the experiment of a group powerful individuals that try to put pressure on us to the limit but they never thought that something like Bitcoin can trigger so much in such short time.

In terms of the "fair price" I agree with you and that's a though one. But eventually we will get there and it's our responsibility to spread the word and educate as many minds as possible and to show the benefits to the children, the rich, the middle class, the poor and every single person out there who feels like everything they do towards prosperity and success it has to be control, monitor and audit by a corrupt system.
You haven't ask me this but, I teach my mother about bitcoin, she have got her bitcoin wallet on her smart phone and she tells her friends about it and she even manage to set their wallets and we give them their first BTC's and they are so curious that they start asking question about "how they can secure their future with a currency they can control".
We talking a generation in their 50's and that's a powerful generation in all sense.
The "fair price" still wondering in my head ...LOL

I look at BTC as an asset right now yes. I hope the statement answers your question.

Have a great day !!!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Sell Off.

Powerful sell off that it manage to denial and entire 5 market sessions.
We believe that this particular sell off could find a new support in areas such as $166.43.
It all depends how the market reacts during the course of the day.

Counter trends could be the best possibility in small time frames to take advantage of the situation.

It was a long range candle stick in the daily chart that it denial five days of market sessions and the 240 minutes chart denial over three higher lows.
I still believe that the currency has a bit more space to go down towards $166.43 but, it all depends how the market takes the previous sell off.

http://youtu.be/mvRD6u92TRY

[dnaleor]

great charts, nice analysis!

[Lucano]

great charts, nice analysis!

[dnaleor]

great charts, nice analysis!

subscribed on youtube. I guess a donation will folow

[Lucano]

great charts, nice analysis!

subscribed on youtube. I guess a donation will folow

donation will be nice thank you !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A weak price can give you a chance to set up your next trading plan.
Lower highs in 60 minutes chart and the price using the SMA 200 as a main support shows that it's a slightly possibility that the down trend continue towards the new support which is $175.30.

I'm supporting this hypothesis in the fact that the daily chart is looking to build new higher low and the 240 minutes chart continues with the retracement and it already penetrate more than 50% of the long range green candle stick.

The 60 minutes chart is trying to push the price back up but the previous two lower highs shows that a potential new up trend it's going to take some time to be set by a potential new set of patterns and right now the price is using the SMA 200 a a main support which I believe it will not last to long if the consolidation fails in the construction of a new support in that area.

Ideally, a new higher low in the daily chart will be the perfect option but, at the moment the best option is to have a consolidation so the price will give some time to the daily chart to generate the conditions of a new higher low and then we can set new long trades.

It's too soon to tell and the price seems like it might have another idea to make thing happen. Perhaps a new down trend towards $166.43 can be on the table.

Will keep watching.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/wHWvGiXIh6k

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last week the currency show us that a previous sell off can generate a weak price and it's more easy to down than to go up.
The good thing about the pull back from last week was the fact that such powerfull movement just helped the currency to generate new patterns such as a higher low in the daily chart that it can help to bring the price back on track towards once again $233.00.
But, let's don't forget that the reason what I'm saying this is because the 3 day chart right now it's showing a new powerful candle stick that it's trying to deny the previous one and turn the entire pattern into a Bullish sandwich.

The weekly chart it's showing that buyers are trying to absorb the previous sell off and the weekly candle stick is showing a long bottom tale that eventually will help to build a new higher low and if that occurs we can see that higher low helping the price towards $266.00 and set new highs.

The new week is showing a daily chart with a new higher low and on the left hand side of the same chart there is not obstacles for the price to try once again to reach the top tales of the previous movement which are the major resistance. $233.00 it's the new target to conquer for the price right now in the daily chart.

Daily, 4 hours and 60 minutes chart the three look align and with higher lows that looks like they are trying to break up and look for the next intraday target which is $216.00.
After that, we can see a potential new visit to $233.00 can be more evident.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/vYLWE3WbcRU

[Lucano]

Good day Bitcoiners,

The price is building a buying areas as we speak $207/208.

At the same time, the price is creating a powerful consolidation that it can break up and push the price towards new highs towards $216/217.00.

All the time frames are align and at the moment the main hypothesis towards the up trend still strong and it's the opportunity for the market makers to create once again a new positive trend.

The daily, 12 hours, 4 hours and 60 minutes chart shows similarities towards a bullish trend.

All this signs are helping the 3 day chart to build the bullish sandwich and if that happen, the price can potentially fly towards $233.00.

Here, The pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/9_z1ipo1W7o

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The yesterdays higher low in the 240 minutes chart manage to create new highs ($216.50) towards the minor resistance which is located at $217.50 and with the price absorbing such resistance there is a chance that the price will break up again and pushes it self to the next targets $227/233.00.

The daily chart is showing a price with not obstacles on the left hand side toward the close and open body of the two long range candles and if the momentum keeps the price up we can visit $227.00 at any time.
This can give the price and the market makers a very strong fact to push the price and create another possible powerful up trend towards $233.40 and set new highs eventually.

The 240 minutes chart is setting a new higher low as we speak and it keeps the hypothesis for long trades active and with a powerful possibility to penetrate $217.50.

If the formations we see so far in this particular time frames continue to push the price and send positive message to the market and the traders, we can experience a new rally during the rest of the week and part of the weekend.

Here, the pre market.

http://youtu.be/wFkdLKX2qqA

[Its About Sharing]

Again, excellent commentary and very educational (e.g. - You said piercing the wicks is easier then piercing the bodies, regarding followup candles going up.)

Do you look at many long term candle charts? I hope you don't mind if I share one here, using a bit of GANN. That part is experimental as we don't have a history in which to really have a solid start point, but I think it might be close. What are your thoughts long term? I think the long term chart is and has been VERY strong. I think the base diagonal line support is actually conservative. To get a prediction in writing, I say 350 is possible this year and next year, a minimum of 600 and breaking 1000 is more in the plans imo. A world economic situation that will worsen is a part of the reason. And China continuing to use BTC is another (Note China's main exchange has more volume than Gox or Stamp and is approaching the sum of both). And just wait for other countries like India to start.

[Lucano]

Again, excellent commentary and very educational (e.g. - You said piercing the wicks is easier then piercing the bodies, regarding followup candles going up.)

Do you look at many long term candle charts? I hope you don't mind if I share one here, using a bit of GANN. That part is experimental as we don't have a history in which to really have a solid start point, but I think it might be close. What are your thoughts long term? I think the long term chart is and has been VERY strong. I think the base diagonal line support is actually conservative. To get a prediction in writing, I say 350 is possible this year and next year, a minimum of 600 and breaking 1000 is more in the plans imo. A world economic situation that will worsen is a part of the reason. And China continuing to use BTC is another (Note China's main exchange has more volume than Gox or Stamp and is approaching the sum of both). And just wait for other countries like India to start.

Please share as many hypothesis as you want. the topic is for all of us.
To be honest, I try not speculate too much in terms of core trades because panic and greed are very funny on people this days.
But, seeing your graphic I' agree with you in terms how the possible price by the end of the year.
At this point it is a strong possibility that the price reach over $266.00 during the course of next month.
China is the market to watch and volume will keep coming from that part of the world.

P.S: India by the middle of 2014 will be the one who help to push this up towards...new highs !!

[Tzupy]

I have a question for Lucano: considering that in your analysis you repeatedly talk about the testing of the 233$ peak, the peak
of which EW do you believe 233$ was? Because if it was of wave 5, it is unlikely to touch it again. OTOH if it was of wave 3, then
we are now in the first sub-wave of wave 5, at the end of the second sub-sub-wave or the start of the third sub-sub-wave,
and we are likely to reach close to the former 233$ peak, and sometime later in the third sub-wave to reach a new ATH.
Even if it is so, I'm not sure with which $ this can happen on Gox, there doesn't seem to be enough for a strong push up.

[Lucano]

I have a question for Lucano: considering that in your analysis you repeatedly talk about the testing of the 233$ peak, the peak
of which EW do you believe 233$ was? Because if it was of wave 5, it is unlikely to touch it again. OTOH if it was of wave 3, then
we are now in the first sub-wave of wave 5, at the end of the second sub-sub-wave or the start of the third sub-sub-wave,
and we are likely to reach close to the former 233$ peak, and sometime later in the third sub-wave to reach a new ATH.
Even if it is so, I'm not sure with which $ this can happen on Gox, there doesn't seem to be enough for a strong push up.

There is many ways to read the market and many tools to analyzed data. you name it.
My reading are almost classic charts.
The reason why I talk about the major resitance is becuase the market has memory and it it always try to reapet it self in many opportunities.
Obviously every one has it's own strategies and it's own trading plan including it's technical analysis.
the waves theory it's a reading that it's not my field.

In terms of Gox and the data that it's around such as Bitstamp, BTCChina, BTC-e ...every one seems to manage almost the same sort of graphics and if you look at their charts you can see the similarities which I think it's a great opportunity when you can read the biggest trading platforms and you end up setting trades in all of them when you see the price is going to x, y, z because you end up creating a plus in you entire operation because you have a price going in the same direction and three or four platforms with different prices are doing the same.

[Tzupy]

OK. Thank you for the answer.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price manage to visit $217.90 area but the minor resistance was not penetrate and we have new highs in the daily charts $216.50 from yesterday's market.

The movements of yesterday seems like a double bottom tale in the 240 minutes chart is just another set of new signs to help a daily chart to build again a new higher low.

Yesterday, 240 minutes chart generate a pull back that sets a new support and it seems like a new lower high is in formation but, you have to have a look closely again to that area and see that the price went back up and deny the previous pull back in more than 70%.

The 60 minutes chart is showing a previous double top that it manage to create an extended down trend (extended in red candles but not in movement) and it reacted right in front of the SMA 200 and after it created a lower high, the same lower high was deny by the up trend and right now we see a consolidation in progress and the SMA it's use as support for such purpose with the other SMA's 10 and 20 crossing each other announcing a change on the previous down trend.

Down trends can be possible if the price manage to reach £203.81 and after that a new lower high in 60/240 minutes can push the price down towards areas like $189/$175.

The hypotesis for up trends is a bit more complex and the 60 minutes chart will be the one who sends the first signals if the price manage to break up the consolidation and push the price to visit 216.50 again. This particular scenario will help 240 chart to confirm what we call a lower high failure and after that a new up trend can generate a powerful and possible over extended up trend with no chance of higher lows in the 4 hour chart and possible higher lows in the 60 minutes chart and if the price breaks the $217.90 the next target or point of reaction could be $227./$233.00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/dRZ_o35JbUY

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bircoiners,

Yesterday's market was showing a retracement building a support.
Now we see higher lows in daily and 240 minutes chart that it will increase the possible break up towards $217.90 and after that, there is not obstacles for the price towards $233.00.

Higher Lows in daily and 240 minutes chart can push the price up in the next few hours.
If such penetration occurs there is not reason why the price can reach daily and weekly major resistance and eventually will experience a rally that it can push the price $16 to $17 up.

I know it sounds a lot of dollars right now but, when you learn and keep learning about how the currency works and behaves, this kind of movements are not surprise at all.
To see this happening we need to break $217.90 to have an option and only then we can see how the entire market will react.

Last but not least, we have to talk about down trends and for those patterns be conseider we need to see a price going back again to $204.00 so we can reconsider a new strategy.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/28spHn1RbEo

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

October was an impressive month that push the price to $233.40 and we saw an incredible performance.
Buyers in total control of the price shows that it's potential for the price to reach once again the $233.40 and after that the next target believe it or not, it could be $266.00.

Here, the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/_uzOxCxo62U

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Price reaches new highs. $242.00
Watching the major time frames (3days/daily/12hours) seems like the long range candles stick are sending messages that the up trend is coming to an end and consolidations will be the new situation intraday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3jYtGx0G_U&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Code_red]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

[notme]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

Always stick to the plan.

[8fold]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

We should appreciate what Lucano is doing, and keep in mind that this is only his oppinion, as candid as it may be. Whatever action we take with or without regarding his advice is strictly our responsibility.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

$269.79999 is the new historical highs.
No more obstacles around, over extended trend in all the time frames, high volume from BTCCHINA pushing the price up.
Powerful momentum for the currency and for the ones who took advantage of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyLd-ZD4vd0&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[dnaleor]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

We should appreciate what Lucano is doing, and keep in mind that this is only his oppinion, as candid as it may be. Whatever action we take with or without regarding his advice is strictly our responsibility.

it is always a good thing to use the simple buy&hold strategy with at least 50% of you bitcoin holdings.
I personally, trade with 25% of my holdings

[Code_red]

Yep just venting my stupid mistakes on others

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Seems like $300 could be the next target for the price to reach.
However, taking into consideration that market is over extended and the SMA's 10, 20, 200 are very far from the price at this point some trading plans are finished and another ones haven't even start yet.

Here, the pre market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZC_5Sf4EtI&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The impressive volume that BTCCHINA is moving towards Bitcoin price is the one who's generating new historical highs and the momentum has not finished yet.
We see over extended trends in majhor time frames but the 60/15 minutes charts still using the SMA's 10/20 as support, specially the SMA 10 which is the one showing us how much control the buyer are having at the moment.

Here, the analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcGWCL9blwQ&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

I'm glad to hear that you are using the analysis to generate good trades and profits.
Like any other trader, we can fuck things up some times.
As long as I'm over 60% positive at the end of the year that means I'm doing ok.

"Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver."

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

After the impressive rally that we all experience for the last five weeks we start seeing pull backs and the major time frames are showing that a pause is need it build more memory in the market for the sake of our young currency.

However, the divergence between price and SMA's is huge and we can expect a pull back towards $230.00.

The reason why I'm saying this is because what I see between the daily, 3 day and weekly chart makes me thing that this hypothesis is one to take into consideration.

The 60 minutes chart will play an important role during this week and the SMA 200 in this time frame will be for the price and sellers to push the price down and to generate new lower highs.

Here the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/TKE7Fm3D_jQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Buyers in full control of the price and showing signs of pull back or pauses at this point.
We keep the hypothesis of pull back based on the data received from the major time frames.
The question is when is this pull back going to happen?

The pull back hypothesis for the weekly analysis still valid for us and there is nothing in our trading plan that it's telling us some thing else.

For the traders that don't have a trading plan and do what we call Kamikaze trading, we wish you all the best.

For the no so experience traders with a trading plan, if you reach your target and the price still goes up, dont feel bad remember that the term "What if" does not exist and it never will.
there is market every day so feel happy and take the some time off and do something productive until the signs for new trades based on your plan come back.

And the for the professional is not much I can tell, they know what;s going on becuase they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come an eat you alive with notice. !!

60 minutes chart should give us the signs of higher low failures and then, only then will see how deep the pull back can go.

A good friend of mine and an excellent coach told me once "If you want to survive in this industry stick to your plan and don't fuck around"

Here, the pre market anlysis.

http://youtu.be/3dfhNHl0StY

[Tzupy]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

[Miz4r]

I find your analysis a bit too biased. Yeah we'll revisit the SMA's at some point but if you look at the price action back in February-April this year you can see that it might take a while to do so. Would you have advised everyone to stay out and wait for a correction back to the SMA's when the price was at $80 back then? Eventually it did happen ofcourse but that was only several weeks later after another 300% increase. Just a little something to take into consideration.

[Lucano]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

Your welcome.
The market idea of buy low and sell high between exchanges will always generate volatility specially when people buys big amounts and dumped them in high price exchanges !!
 

[Lucano]

I find your analysis a bit too biased. Yeah we'll revisit the SMA's at some point but if you look at the price action back in February-April this year you can see that it might take a while to do so. Would you have advised everyone to stay out and wait for a correction back to the SMA's when the price was at $80 back then? Eventually it did happen ofcourse but that was only several weeks later after another 300% increase. Just a little something to take into consideration.

The analysis is subject to debate and you are absolutely right about me been biased. I'm biased based on my trading plan which is the one who gives me the results so I can go and do what I do best.
Every one is entitle to use the analysis in any possible way.
I am taking your opinion on board 100%. Thank you for that.
I'm expecting no one to take my analysis as a main source but if your trading plan is matching my analysis that makes us two.

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

[notthematrix]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

the fact you can see and anticipate on this . was never possible before bitcoin
panic selling is not needed , because anybody understanding bitcoin can examine this information
if the BRIC country's like it europe and US can prohibit it but it will not be very effective.
 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still penetrating the major resistance and it seems like there is not options for the sellers at this point.
$400.00 seems to be the main target for this particular momentum.

The daily chart shows a higher low trying to reach new highs after the $395.00 mark from previous sessions.
240 minutes chart is showing a new higher low that is still penetrating the top tales of the major resistance and it will intent to create new highs and after will go towards the $400.00 which will generate a new pattern. A possible double top tale.
The 60 minutes chart is showing that the price is relying on the SMA10 to support it's intention toward the $400.00.
15 minutes chart will be ideal to operate like the way some traders operate counter trends (Medium size trades towards one or two targets tops) but at this point that particular time frame is too erratic and hard to read.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h26xUITLYQo&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Its About Sharing]

I wonder, can we trade an entity like BTC, like a stock? Maybe we "could" till a few months ago but going forward (until more data is collected) can't...   The "known" is now "unkown".

What I mean is, BTC is something essentially never before seen. It is a: Stock (in "owning" a piece of the network, in a sense), protocol, asset, payments system, commodity, etc. Maybe it will run to 1000 and break all the rules because it isn't like anything before it. And we are seeing that now.

And, we now have what appears to be the silent approval of two governments in China and Russia who don't exactly value the USD as the world currency.

I don't think we can put the BTC in a box as a "stock" is all, at least not yet.

Just a thought...

Learning your candle skills as usual Lucano...

[Ivanhoe]

I have thought about this matter as well. I think there are some things that they have in common. But the thing with Bitcoin is, that the market is so thin that it doesn't take much money to change a trend and market sentiment( and fuck up a pattern). That makes it far more risky to trade in my opinion, if you can be successful in Bitcoin you can also be in stocks.  

Anyway keep up the good work Lucano ( and It's about sharing as well, your postings are also valuable to me )

[Lucano]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

As usual, is always brilliant reading your comments and the knowledge your sharing with us is privilege information. Thank you.
P.S: Sorry for the late reply, sorting out few bits and pieces here !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price had a small pause during the morning but it only help the small time frames to generate new higher lows and potentially new up trends towards new historical highs.

The daily charts is showing a previous long range candle stick that it could be the candle that finalized the up trend.

However, watching the 240 minutes chart it seems to me that the currency is trying to consolidate in order to create a new potential higher low with and trade to take at $439.80.
Having said that, the price still respecting the SMA 10 and it's using it again as it's main support towards new highs.

The 60 minutes chart is the one who has to show a bit more energy if we want the higher low to work (the 240 minutes chart).
If the price manage to penetrate the previous pull back and put the price back up in the resistance area it will activate the orders set at $439.80 and then will have a new up trend in place towards once again historical new highs.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2P79YrGaUA&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price keeps building a strong consolidation as we speak.
The point of entry yesterday did not manage to generate a chain reaction and some of the traders are inside waiting for every body else to follow.
Perhaps, the over extended trend is creating uncertainty now and the major time frames are ready for correction. Perhaps no.

Here the pre market analysis

http://youtu.be/35ywKNtAhZ0

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

We are having more than 6 weeks rally and the price does not want to have a pause for a possible correction, instead it keeps generating new historical highs almost every hour. Impressive!

The weekly chart shows the SMA 10 with over $300.00 margin difference and we all know that in the event of a deep sell off we will hate our self's if we get trapped and with negative numbers.

The greed and positive emotion that the currency is giving to all of us at this point it's proportional to a potential deep correction due the fact that our major time frames looks amazingly vertical and there is not point of reference to say that the price will stop today, tomorrow or in a month.

However, the currency have a major challenge today with Uncle Sam and it's biggest enemy, The Federal Reserve which is hiding behind all the federal agencies that are part of this historical hearing that will happen in few hours.

The meeting with the U.S Government will probably create a high volatility today which is something that it has never happen before because Bitcoin it's been very neutral against economy news and central banks minutes etc.

Seems like everything is in place for the price to have a pause and bring the correction.

• Historical highs
• Over extended trend

• Government hearing (Fundamental Fact never explore before)
• High Levels of speculation = high volatility

Now, let's look at the SMA 200 in the daily chart and the margin difference between the SMA and the actual price, we are talking about $430.00 difference. Insane right?. well the chart it's saying it.

There is not aliens in the market, the market was created by humans and it's full of human feelings.
We are living a honey moon with Bitcoin right now but the bumpy road is right in front of us with the banks and their lobby against bitcoin, the governments trying to regulate and asphyxiate the bitcoin businesses and the institutional money trying to take advantage of the new rules against bitcoin so they can control it and make it disappear for the common citizens of the world.

All this can be reflected in the behavior of the market and it's four stages.

Greed is already here and we see how much we want the price per bitcoin to go to $1k and more but the uncertainty, panic and indifference will come along and that's when we take advantage of more opportunities to go in the market hit our targets and make our profits.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/dH0NQidJ2LU

[Its About Sharing]

Great commentary once again Lucano. Very much appreciated - the professionalism and "openness" of your calls.

Regarding the Senate hearing today, one thing we should be aware of, is that this is a VERY delicate situation. If the US Governments hints at a heavy hand with BTC they are going to push innovation overseas. And, they will probably push the many countries (e.g. China, Russia, South America, etc.) into the further adoption of BTC as a sort of economic proxy war.

Imagine, there are hard words today and the price of BTC continues to go up. Would that be their Worst short term NIGHTMARE? A big smack in the face, the middle finger?
To put this in perspective, somewhat anyway, look at Bit Torrent. They attacked it and clearly lost. Now they don't mention it much. Do they want to go down the same road or try to subvert BTC with regulations? I think the latter as they learned their lesson, but these are pretty much corrupt low intelligent criminals in charge, so I wouldn't be shocked at anything.
I can't stress this enough, if the U.S. goes about this all wrong, it will blow up in their face and the world, the people, etc. are not exactly behind the U.S. government.

With relation to the 200 day ma/ema, etc. I don't know what to think. It certainly appears we are in an S-Curve (the uptrend part). Twitter, Facebook, MSFT, etc. experienced this but in large part privately, the stocks were not publicly available to most of us. I think it is safe to say, as I did a few posts up, that BTC is much more complicated then a stock. We can for sure see us zoom to 1000. I guess I'm saying, I just wonder if we can apply BTC in the same way as a stock, especially in light of the global economic situation. Anyway, if we do crash down, one should probably have orders in place before the crash, as the exchanges will lag big time.

By the way, if you have not seen this guys videos, I STRONGLY recommend them.
Here is one on the S-Curve (which pertains here): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
And here is one on the Nightmare of regulating BTC (my favorite): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR4e8zwnR6w

So, we might see a big drop today, or we might see $1000. Neither would shock me.

Keep on keeping on with the videos, very much appreciated and I've tried to share them often,
Its about sharing

[Lucano]

Hi Bitcoiners,

High volatility last night.
Price was pushed by the sellers to go below $600.00 and pontentialy generate a powerful sell off.
Hard thing to do but possible if the new set of candles in weekly and daily do not react in a positive way towards this momentum of weakness.

http://youtu.be/8ww44KBQqFQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A lot of people are saying that the two day hearing about bitcoin at the US senate has go something to do with the weak price right now.

It's all about speculation but, as far as my technical knowledge the over extended  trend was looking for a pause to generate more memory towards higher prices in the short term.
Seller in control of the price right now and the ones suffering now are the ones that are trapped from $600 up to $900.98 and that's worst than the sell off last April.

We have a daily chart showing a powerful correction in yesterdays market and it's trying to visit the next available support $395.00.

This correction can probably find support right now with the SMA 200 in the 60 minutes chart but, in case that sell off keeps happening the only major support available right now is located at $413.00 and after that $395.00 could be the end of the correction.

240 minutes chart is showing a deep down trend towards major supports and it seems like the bottom tale of the next couple of candles (means 8 hours of market) can generate some counter trends for small time frames such as 15/5 minutes chart.

The 60 minutes chart with 3 lower highs and a four one visiting the SMA 200 manage to penetrate and create a new set of patterns that is helping to slow down the hype from previous sessions.

Last but no least, the new strategy for today's market is simple.

Use the small time frames 15/5 minutes charts to take advantage of possible counter trends and go for one or two targets tops and if the market wakes up after this bloody punch we might see a powerful up trend if the price decide to say "this support is where I'm staying"

Keep you eyes open.

Here, the pre market analysis

http://youtu.be/-aHGDjZcJac

[Its About Sharing]

Very nice call on the move back up to $600. Hopefully we don't go back down to 400 now.

[Lucano]

Very nice call on the move back up to $600. Hopefully we don't go back down to 400 now.

It's just what the candles are saying at the moment.
Thanks for the heads up.
P.S: I was expecting one of you excellent comments about our currency.

[Its About Sharing]

Very nice call on the move back up to $600. Hopefully we don't go back down to 400 now.

It's just what the candles are saying at the moment.
Thanks for the heads up.
P.S: I was expecting one of you excellent comments about our currency.

eheheh, Thanks Lucano. I might be the inspirational BTC speaker but you are the master of the Candles 

But here, how about an esoteric BTC comment? Just for fun. 

BTC's rising sign is Leo. Leo is ruled by the Sun. So that means, when the sun goes through Aries (and other fire signs), things might get explosive. Early this year, BTC's rise coincided with the suns move through Aries (March/April). Well, in less than two days, the sun is moving through Sagittarius (fire sign) - symbolizes EXPANSION amongst other things. This is happening in the 5th house - Leo's house. So, maybe the fun is just starting. 

Its about sharing (my crazy ideas)

[Lucano]

Very nice call on the move back up to $600. Hopefully we don't go back down to 400 now.

It's just what the candles are saying at the moment.
Thanks for the heads up.
P.S: I was expecting one of you excellent comments about our currency.

eheheh, Thanks Lucano. I might be the inspirational BTC speaker but you are the master of the Candles 

But here, how about an esoteric BTC comment? Just for fun. 

BTC's rising sign is Leo. Leo is ruled by the Sun. So that means, when the sun goes through Aries (and other fire signs), things might get explosive. Early this year, BTC's rise coincided with the suns move through Aries (March/April). Well, in less than two days, the sun is moving through Sagittarius (fire sign) - symbolizes EXPANSION amongst other things. This is happening in the 5th house - Leo's house. So, maybe the fun is just starting. 

Its about sharing (my crazy ideas)

No crazy at all.
I'm an Aries and a dog in the Mayan calendar. I studied the Mayan calendar in Costa Rica, I lived there for 10 years.
P.S: I should keep an eye during the next 36 hours.
  BTCBTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Seller's are losing control over the price and the previous bullish momentum seems to me that it's coming back again.
Let's don't forget that we still have a weekly chart showing us a bearish signal and the new hype may be will stay with us for a short period of time.

The price can reach $748.00 today based on the patterns we see in all the time frames and according to the new set of candles in 240 minutes and 60 minutes chart.

The daily chart is showing a possible new higher low and if this higher low develope it's movement, that will be the pattern that it can visit the major resistance $900.98

Having said that, the 240 minutes chart is doing something a bit more different than the daily and this particular discrepancy can delay the up trend a bit longer. The 240 minutes chart is showing an over extended up trend that so far it manage to denial more than 80% of the previos retracement. In some way this is good but if we think about it the movement can try to build a new higher low and fail.
So, if that happen the price can reach once again the SMA 200 or in the worse case scenario it could reach $453.00.

The 60 minutes chart is showing 3 higher lows already build and the price is fighting with the bottom tales of a minor resistance area ($748.00)

The strategy today could be once again using the small time frames to reach one or maximum two targets to take advantage of a potential new uncertainty in the market today.


Here, the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/9C1hmEBFq3Y

[Its About Sharing]

That pattern on the daily (actually you said 12hr) chart Lucano is very interesting. I'm surprised I haven't heard it mentioned before (or noticed it myself). After you mention it, it is so obvious.

Basically, you are saying that the long wicks on the bottom are showing a push towards the ema's but that BTC is bouncing back up, wanting to resume the uptrend.
That is then followed by a higher lower. Which has (so far) been verified today.

Good eyes  
IAS

[Lucano]

That pattern on the daily (actually you said 12hr) chart Lucano is very interesting. I'm surprised I haven't heard it mentioned before (or noticed it myself). After you mention it, it is so obvious.

Basically, you are saying that the long wicks on the bottom are showing a push towards the ema's but that BTC is bouncing back up, wanting to resume the uptrend.
That is then followed by a higher lower. Which has (so far) been verified today.

Good eyes  
IAS

I am creating a file of new patterns, because the currency is bringing a new generation of traders, means new set of graphics.
This is wonderful because we are adding new patterns to the ABC of candle sticks readings.

I should come with a name for that pattern, something like "Geekttern or G Pattern" LOL...

We are in a crazy world full of sane minds !!!

P.S: thanks for the heads up !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last night the price create a down trend that manage to deny one of the higher low in 60 minutes.
Buyer will try to push the price back up again and it could be that the buyers will bring the price towards $784.00.

The 15 minutes chart is showing us a lower high failure an a powerful push from the buyers towards the second lower high from the top down.

60 minutes chart is showing a previous retracement towards a major support (higher low) and it was a reaction from the buyers that it's pushing the price back up as we speak and it seems like the next target could be the resistance which is located at $784.44. (The daily highs from yesterday's market)

240 minutes chart is building it's new higher low and if this pattern get active it can push the price up toward the new major resistance $900.98.

The daily chart has a higher low already and it's penetrating the bodies of the candles on the left. after the bodies, the tales will be less difficult to absorb.

This is an auction between buyers and sellers and who ever takes control over the price can created the domino effect that every one else follows.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/TENVlNIyCEU

[YoYa]

Lucano, your use of the 12hr yesterday pointed me to the resistance you mentioned today....quite cool

[Its About Sharing]

I wanted to bring up the call Lucano made about that "new pattern" that is seldom seen. It did indeed breakout from the pattern.
BTC ran following the close of the 3rd candle (the first time the pattern showed) from around $338 to a high of $902 ish.
The last low of the 3 candle setup ended at around $501. Just to have some fun with simple math, and jumping over resistance levels etc  , I come up with the following:
$902/$338=2.67
$501X2.67=$1337 - our next target high. Just having fun of course.

edit - I noticed the negative volume divergence during this recent rise. Normally this would be worrisome, but ever since Gox's withdrawal patterns, it has become less so (any indicators relating to volume actually). Anyway, something to watch.

[Lucano]

Lucano, your use of the 12hr yesterday pointed me to the resistance you mentioned today....quite cool

http://imgur.com/Sm6q37V

[Lucano]

Lucano, your use of the 12hr yesterday pointed me to the resistance you mentioned today....quite cool

Here is the pattern.
It's just like IAS is saying, we haven't seen this pattern before in major time frames.

P.S: Nice to see that I'm not the only one exited about this pattern.  BTCBTC

http://imgur.com/Sm6q37V

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still consolidating near major resistance and it might push it self to create new historical highs this week.
Such situation can generate a high volatility and eventually the correction will come along based on what the weekly chart shows (over extended trend and far from the SMA's).

The daily chart is showing a new higher low trying to push the price up and this could be good for the traders and market makers in general towards closing the positions of the month and sell at the highest price.

12 hours chart is aligned with the daily chart and it's forming a second higher low. This pattern can bring the price up to $900.98, create a double top tale and eventually a new set of candles will show up in 240/60 minutes chart.

Every body wants to push the price towards the $1k but no every one wants to buy at $1k.

As soon as the price reaches the $900.98 will be important to see how much the market can hold the price that high or may be the sellers will take control and push the price towards lower levels which will help the currency to generate market memory and more powerful data to bring positive trust to the traders and less uncertainty to the public in general.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/3qPXjjmwpmM

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

New higher low in the daily chart is pushing the price towards $900.98.

The 240 minutes chart shows a triple bottom tale and a new higher low and at the same time the 60 minutes chart is pushing it self up and with a powerful long range candle stick it manage to deny the entire consolidation and set new highs.

Seems like those all those signals are showing how much the buyers wants the price to reach once again the historical highs so their trading plan for the month will be done in a positive way.

Having said that, I believe that reaching $900.98 will create high volatility and will give space to the sellers to take control of the market and a week of potential correction will show up.

The weekly chart needs a break and hopefully will take advantage of it.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/GOiiFwjNbR4

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The new historical highs are allowing the price to maintain it self around $950.00 regardless of how over extended the price looks in major time frames such as weekly and monthly.
Buyers are in full control of the price.

A potential correction can show up at any time and it will take the price towards it's first available support which is located at the $900.98 area.

The daily chart is showing a long range candle stick from yesterday's market and it's probably telling us that the big rally is coming to an end.

12 hour chart is showing a second higher low with an extended trend of candles sticks but it's not over extended on the movement and this can be another situation to considered as part of the analysis for a potential correction.

The 240 minutes chart has the same story as the 12 hours times frame. The 4 hours chart is over extended and it's trying to build a consolidation. Having the two time frames with such synchrony makes me think twice.

In the event that the price decides to create it's correction, we have to see higher low's in 60/15 minutes chart failing before we take new analysis into consideration.

We have no reference to give a forecast about when or where the price is gonna stop generating new highs but the options are always in front of us.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/pWXTAncJLNU

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The possible correction in yesterday's market didn't happended thanks to the powerful buyers and their full control over the price instead, we saw a small correction last night that it only help the price to create new higher low's and still producing historical highs and the over extended trend is showing that a potential correction can occur at any time.

The daily chart is showing that the previous long range candle stick that we thought was the one sending of a possible end of the trend was no more than just another candle stick that it was pushing the price towards historical new highs.

240 minutes chart is showing once again how the SMA 10 can be use as a main support for the patterns. It's impressive how the price and the buyers respect this moving average without any hesitation.

60/15 minutes charts are the ones showing more volatility in terms of price fluctuation and with powerful SMA's looking like rails there is not sings that the price wants a correction.

If you are thinking in going in and trade during this over extended trend make sure that you are taking precautions because the price is reaching unknown areas and eventually the good bullish trend will stop to give the opportunity to the sellers to take part of the action.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/zCEQglt5rjg

[maz]

Subscribed, thanks for the free analysis Lucano, it's most appreciated!

[Lucano]

Subscribed, thanks for the free analysis Lucano, it's most appreciated!

your welcome. Thank you for following

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last night the price and the sellers try to push a sell off to create a domino effect but, instead they manage to create a side ways trend that it's making the price fluctuate between top and bottom tales with a margin of $250.00. This could be interesting because it will give opportunity to the small time frames such as 15/5 minutes chart to give some patterns and generate more opportunities.

The daily chart is showing yesterdays candle stick with  some uncertainty and with an over extended trend trying to penetrate the historical new highs which is exactly what is doing as we speak.

The 240 minutes is more specific in this case and the new higher low it's trying to push the price up but the low volume is no showing sings of increasing at the moment and this can be a situation where a potential consolidation can happen instead of a new movement up towards new highs.

The 60 minutes chart is fighting hard and it's trying to recover it self from the previous volatility and it manage to build a new higher low that at the moment is trying to bring the price back to the major resistance which is $1242.00.

Having a particular side ways market it will only give chance to micro trading which I think is a great opportunity as long as you keep an eye on the patterns and you keep pushing your stop up after break even.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/J5368Xppa60

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

November is gone and the bitcoiners and the masses has not limits when is about challenging the old FIAT.

Now, back into the technical aspects of our currency I see a correction happening as we speak but it is not one of the normal correction that we see on FOREX, NYSE or any other markets. this correction is a side ways one with bottom and top tales creating enough margins for the traders to operate and with the small time frames giving us the right opportunities to increase the gains of our trading performances.

November, the candle stick of last month have a top tale that is signaling the path for an important and necessary correction.

Please understand that when I'm talking about a correction I'm not saying or I'm not wishing that the price goes to hell...hell not!!.

What I'm trying to say here is that in order to have a healthy and more stronger currency compare to the old FIAT rubbish we have to deal with, we need that correction or at least a side ways trend to build memory in the market and leave the word "bubble" behind us.
Having said that, I won't be surprise if we have few weeks of a bearish market and all this is for the sake of our currency becuase eventually the rally will come back again.

The daily chart was showing yesterday that the price was push by the sellers towards $840.00 area and it manage to find a major support with a higher low in that area which it help to create a point of reaction and right now we see that the price is back over $1k thanks to the major support that the price found at that time.
This reaction and possible consolidation can be tricky because if the market can't be patience enough with a possible long consolidation it can go any where.
This month will see higlhr low failures and breakdown failures that it can create small rallies or sell off's but with a price respecting major bottom tales and major resistance until the weekly chart builds enough data to go for new highs and start a new up trend.

I want to bring a subject that I haven't talk about publicly and it's about "Company Adquisitions with Bitcoin".

In the middle of this year we experienced the first bitcoin adquisition with "Erik Voorhees sold SatoshiDICE for 126k bitcoin $11.5 Million USD" the historical event created an important sell off the day when the news went public and it took more than one week for the price to recover.
We might see this events happen again, it will force the correction to happen more faster and it bring more confidence to the market and all the participants.

Last month the currency show to the whole financial world that gold and bitcoins has to co-exist.
Now, let's bring more memory to the market and to consolidate the currency for the long run.

Here is the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/Gz8SoAw0b-k

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A new higher low in the daily chart is pushing the price up to the major resistance and potentially new highs will show up any time soon.
However, the weekly chart is way too over extended and the higher low in daily can fail and bring the price back to $1,000.00.

The 240 minutes chart is showing that the previous lower high was denial and it manage to push the price up to the point that right now it's absorbing the bottom tales of the major resistance.

The 60 minutes chart is over extended in candles and movement and it might reach $1170.00 and then it will try to build a new higher low.

15 minutes chart was the one who trigger the new up trend and it might continue but resistance are in the middle of the biggest target for today's market which is reaching the historical highs and create new ones.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/VSFbitD1ln0

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The weekly chart is showing that the price is trapped between the bodies of the candles and it seems that this formation can lead to a long consolidation.
Such consolidation can create a fluctuation in price that can lead the currency to move sideways (max/min. support and resistance)
This could be good for trading in small time frames.

The daily chart is showing today's candle with new minimums compare to the previous day and this can produce new signs toward the seller and their option to take control of the price.

The formation with the daily chart can keep the possibilities of a new lower high in this particular chart and in the event that such patterns appears the first target could be $453.29. It will take few more red candles to happen but it's possible and we should keep our options open and our strategy ready for a change.

NOw, the next hypothesis could lead the price to create a long consolidations and eventually the price will create a new higher low and at that point such pattern can lead the price toward major resistance $1242.00 and this option should appear in coordination with the possible consolidation in the weekly chart. Having those two major time frames will push the price up with enough power towards prices over $1.300.00

Last but not least is the 60 minutes chart that it's showing a price below the SAM 200 and with a long consolidation that it's trying to build new supports that it might help the up trend hypothesis in the long run.

A weak price still with us but, we need to be patient and wait for the signals and if those signals comes at the right time we can ride the new up trend early than usual and bring new positive growth to our trading accounts.

Here is the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/qLoaGwI_chs

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday's market showed a price fluctuation between max/min in the small time frames and it continue to support the main hypothesis of potential higher low in formation in the daily chart towards $1242.00.

The daily chart manage to generate a new lower low leaving a bottom tale that it's important for a potential higher low in this particular time frame.

240 minutes chart build a new support that it should helpthe price to bounce back towards $1068.00 and if that happen, the next higher low in the 60 minutes chart can take the price towards $1155.00.
For this hypothesis to happen the price needs to absorb all the bottom tales and the bodies on the left hand side. It will take some time but eventually it will happen.

60 minutes chart is using the SMA 200 as a support to push the price back to the resistance and if keeps going this way it will give us more opportunities during the day.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/F6-RszKgUyw

[Lucano]

Good Mroning Bitcoiners,

Regardless of the fact that the price still building supports and resistance, still no signs of break up trends instead we see new potential corrections towards $690.00 if the Lower High on daily gets completely active.

The weekly chart shows a consolidation that it can build a bullish flag or a "P" formation and eventually it will help the price towards major resistance ($1242.00) and potentially it will generate new historical highs.
But for that to happen we need few more days and probably a couple of weeks of price fluctuation between max/min; supports/resistance and only then will see potential patterns in major time frames to trade long.

The buyers reaction will appear any time soon and we will see the buyers trying to push the price towards minor resistance areas first such as $900.00 area.

I can recommend coupe of trades using the small time frames such as 15 minutes or 5 minutes char but at the moment the volume and the readings are not the best and it's a risk that we might get trapped in the middle of a consolidation and that's something you don't want to deal with at this point.

Low volume means high risk that some one comes in and moves the price few dollars and then the price goes back again to the entry level within seconds or in the worse case scenario that trader can cause a new down trend.

The hypothesis for long trades can happen if during the first few days of the week the price pushes it self up towards $990.00. Only then we can seek for new higher lows in the small time frames such as 240/60/15 minutes charts and that will confirm possible lower high failure on the daily chart and that's a poweful message that we should all take advantage of it.

The low volume once again is not helping the patterns to evolve 100% and it can be a problem if you are one of those traders that want's to do a couple of trades per day with two digits profit.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/p8j24TEPDsk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The three day charts is showing a patterns that denials the previous long range candle stick and it shows a weak price with the sellers in full control at the moment. The sellers still trying to push the price down and if the consolidations in minor time frames can't hold the the price we might see a new down trend towards $576.00.

The daily chart create a new higher low failure and the sellers are in full control and this can go on and on if the consolidation in the small time frames can hold the price and the daily chart generates new lower prices.

240 minutes chart is building a "b" formation but, at the same time that pattern can turn into several hypothesis.

• A braeak up that can push the price up towards the SMA 200 which is located at $862.00 and that will give us a new set of higher lows and we can look for new buying opportunities.
• A new Lower High that can take the price towards $576.00.

The 60 minutes chart will show the first signals of new up trends if the price manage to visit the $824.89 and that will be the first signal for a new behavior in the market towards an up trend.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/boph9V_G3rI

[Its About Sharing]

Thanks as always Lucano for the information.

I'm curious about your thoughts on the China news?
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-bitcoin-crackdown-intensifies-2013-12

Seems like this is the catalyst for the recent large drop.

Thanks,
IAS

[Lucano]

Thanks as always Lucano for the information.

I'm curious about your thoughts on the China news?
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-bitcoin-crackdown-intensifies-2013-12

Seems like this is the catalyst for the recent large drop.

Thanks,
IAS

Nice to see you around IAS.

It's always two sides of the story and people always says. "in terms of a headlines you only see 30% of the real deal, then you have to look for the other 70%"

check this article. http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190

Laters.  

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

From a personal point of view I have to say that the correction was necessary to build new memory in the market for the currency and to build new set of opportunities that can bring new players to the market.
A possible continuation of the sell off still intact and we are visiting $453.29 as we speak. The next target could be $290.00 but, it seems almost impossible to go down towards the SMA 200 or $290.00 but, with the market and specially with bitcoin everything is possible.

The weekly chart is showing a powerful long range candle stick pushing the price down and erasing everything that it was creating several weeks ago and with a lot of space and no obstacles to stop the price it seems like the reaction from the buyers might take some time.

The three day chart manage to erase with three candles an entire long range candle stick and still pushing towards the bottom tales of the green and red candle sticks on the left hand side and it could claim lower areas during the course of the day.

The daily chart is showing a powerful lower high that still want to go more down and it will try to penetrate $453.29and if that happen the next targets could be $395.00 and $290.00.

240 minutes chart is showing the beginning of a new over extended down trend and it might continue towards lower prices and that could increase the sellers volume toward a new target $395.00

Things dont look great for some trader but in the other hand this correction bring a bunch of new opportunities and I will be looking at possible counter trends in small time frames to take advantage of the situation.

Just make sure that greed does not step in front you and go for one or may be two target and get out and this can be a new trading strategy until the buying patterns from the major time frames come back and then we can all be friends of the trend again.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/h3EaLeJDPnI

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last night the price manage visited the major support and the buyers still reacting with new signs. A lower high denial in the 240 minutes chart is the first major signal for a potential change on the bearish trend.

The daily chart is showing that today's candle stick will try to reach yesterday's high prices ($717.02). This move could be the one confirming the intentions from the buyers side to set a new up trend and a possible lower high formation that eventually at the end of few market sessions could become a lower high failure that can help the weekly chart to create the first higher low in over 12 weeks.

240 minutes chart is showing a Lower High failure and a power full movement towards $717.02 and if that happends with some decent volume then the price can lead it's way up and create a powerful over extended up trend towards $750.36 and $780.00

60 minutes chart is showing a powerful over extended up trend that it will create a possible new higher low towards $717.02 and if this happen then the price will try to reach $750.36 and with more volume coming in it is possible that the price pushes it self up towards the SMA 200 and this will confirm the possible over extended trend in the 240 minutes chart.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/W-VO4W28FEk

[Missionary]

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

[dnaleor]

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same

[Lucano]

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

ok, fair enough. will work on that one !!

[Lucano]

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same

Will do !! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The major time frames are sending new messages. Two potential higher low's are in progress (weekly and 3 day chart) and if such patterns come to live the price will reach $1242.00 very soon.

Yesterday the daily chart build a long range candle stick that it manage to reach new highs compare to the previous day and is sending a signal that possible new up trends are on their way and the price manage to recover some of the areas that the seller had yesterday. the price still showing that a visit to the next major resistance is possible today.
The

Now, 240 minutes chart is showing a powerful uptrend towards the SMA200 but, if this time frame manage to build a new higher low then the price will try to reach $928.00

The 60 minutes chart already build 3 higher low's and still using the SMA10 as support in order to reach the SMA200 and eventually after a possible consolidation a new penetration can reach $928.00 and it will confirm the main hypothesis for today's market session.

Down trend hypothesis are always in front of us and just remember that at this point the daily chart is showing a price going up to build a new lower high and lower high can turn into a lower high failure to help the major time frames (3 day's and weekly chart) to confirm what I believe it could be the next rally.


Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/mAWPMW-rhQ0

[dbasql]

Thanks for making these videos Lucano.

[Missionary]

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same

Will do !!  

Well, not for our sake - but for your convenience. What program are you using to draw those lines?

[dnaleor]

I check you video daily. Makes me more confident using my trading plan.
Tipped you again just a few minuetes ago
Last time I tipped you, BTC was still 200 USD, so the ammount is a little smaller this time

[Lucano]

I check you video daily. Makes me more confident using my trading plan.
Tipped you again just a few minuetes ago
Last time I tipped you, BTC was still 200 USD, so the ammount is a little smaller this time

Happy to hear you talking about a trading plan. Excellent.
Thanks for the help.
wishing you more success and more BTCBTC
Lucano. 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The weekly chart start it this new week with a price pushing up and it might try to cover the entire body of the previous candle.

At the same time, the three day chart has a new candle stick that it will try to send the first signal to build a new higher low that potentially will try to reach $774.47 as a first target and we still have to considere the possible lower high that it will take the price potentially towards $455.00 or instead of building this lower high, the price can keep going up and reach $839.00 which in that case will help the hypothesis of new higher low's for weekly and potentially the three day chart.

The daily chart could be the one sending us clear signals for the long or short hypothesis. Right now the daily chart is showing a lower high that potentially can fail towards lower levels and the buyer's can send the price towards the previous high's from yesterday's market which are located at $774.47.
If this happen then a lower high failure could be the beginning of a new up trend towards the levels in the major time frames.

For the hypothesis of long trades to happen the price needs to reach $774.47 so the lower high failure can be confirm and after that a potential new trend will bring the volume to push the price towards high levels such as $839.00

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/fnIg8STO4Y4

[Roccker]

Kudos for your analysis!
I would be interested in a recap before every video for about 20sec -> just what you called (yesterday) and what then happened (did it come true or not)

[Lucano]

Kudos for your analysis!
I would be interested in a recap before every video for about 20sec -> just what you called (yesterday) and what then happened (did it come true or not)

Thanks !!
I will work on that one!!
cheers !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price manage to reach new daily highs last noght and this is helping the bullish hypothesis to keep going.
The next situation for the hypothesis to more valid is that the price should reach the $774.47 and create new highs so in that way the lower high pattern in the daily chart will be history and that can bring more volume to the market and a new up trend will be in place towards $990.00.

The daily chart is showing new highs and it could keep the momentum towards $774.47 and then a lower high failure in the daily chart will send signals to the market makers that a new up trend it's on the way.

240 minutes chart is building a new support with a new consolidation that can bring a potential new higher low. this higher low in the event that it comes active can bring the send the price towards the SMA 200 which is located at $888.27.

The 60 minutes chart is showing that the price could use the SMA 200 to build support and keep the consolidation happening until the right time and then it will send the signal that the potential higher low in the 240 minutes chart is ready and that's when the volume will appear.

Here, the Pre Market.

http://youtu.be/PFEKwObL8sA

P.S: I want to wish you all happy holidays and thank you for all the feedback and the support. wishing you a great success in the new year.  BTCBTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

[Interjekcion]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

Are you discontinuing daily analysis? Just monthly from now on? 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

Are you discontinuing daily analysis? Just monthly from now on? 

Friday was just the monthly analysis.
Will be back on Monday with the weekly and daily analysis.
Cheers!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A powerful higher low in the weekly chart is showing that the movement can continue until the price reaches the historical highs $1242.00. There is no obstacles for the price to reach the historical highs and it is possible that the up trend keeps bringing more volume that it helps the movement to reach major resistance.

The 3 day chart is over extended and the price is above the top tales of the minor resistance and with one more day to go before a new candle stick comes in there is a powerful volume pushing it towards new highs and the volume right now is the key for the candle stick to keep it's momentum for the next 24 hours.

The daily chart is also showing an extended trend that it seems not having any reaction from the sellers and it's possible that the next reaction from the sellers is located between $1,068.00 / $1,131.00.
However, the main target for this momentum can be the $1,242.00.

At this point we see a price with an impressive momentum and the recovery from the previous correction was good enough to bring more volume to reach the main target and build new memory in a market that at this point is getting the attention from the institutional money.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/aKoh3IuQfTA

[minimalB]

2013? : )

[Lucano]

2013? : )

Ups! ! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesteday market just manage to bring uncertainty and at the same time the price build support areas and consolidations that it will help to build new potential patterns and it can continue with the up trend towards $1242.00.

The 12 hours chart is showing a correction that it wasn't as deep as we thought it will be and instead, the price keeps building new sopports so the new potential higher low and a bullish flag can continue with the up trend until the major resistance is reach.

240 minutes chart shows a previous correction with a red long range candle stick trying to send messages that becuase of the over extended trend the price should go down toward $943.00 but, the buyers are pushing the price one more time and they are keeping the price consolidating and potentially a new higher low could be on it's away for this particular time frame.

60 minutes chart keeps the same situation as the major time frames and a sideways trend is possible now with traders using small time frames such as 15/5 minutes respectively and trades that can bring 1:1 / 2:1 rewards.

Corrections can happen if the price manage to penetrate the $995.00 area and the down trend momentum reaches $943.00, thats when a new strategy should come in place because the price can visit $918.00 as part of it's behavior and the intentions from the sellers.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/Fbn9Vxcr2wk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The powerful sell off that we experience yesterday is showing many few scenarios for the price and some of them look more positive than others.
All this new scenarios can either take the price towards $1040.00 and that will help the major time frames to build new higher lows (daily and 4 hour charts) or it can build a new lower high so the price can go down towards $771.00.

The daily chart is showing a long range candle stick from yesterday and it show at the same time that this particular sell off manage to penetrate one previous higher low in the 240 minutes chart which is why the buyer right now are responding with a powerful push that can bring a new up trend and the buyer will try to cancel the previous sell off with a powerful push toward $1040.00.

240 minutes shows how over extended the previous sell off was and after the penetration of the higher low around the $913.00 area the next reaction from the buyer was good enough to deny lower trend pivots (Lower high) in other small time frames such as 60 minutes chart. This reaction from the buyers can keep the momentum and the price can be push once again towards $1040.00 and that will a more solid confirmation to the daily chart that a possible new higher low is on it's way in the daily chart to push the price once again to the major resistance area.

To have a better picture about what's happening right now just look at the 60 minutes chart and see the powerful message that the buyer send to the sellers. The movement bounce back up from the SMA 200 and it deny second Lower High which can help the buyers to build a first higher low and if that happen the pattern can take the lead in the entire technical analysis today and the price once again can try to reach $1040.00 if not $998.00.

The $1040.00 area is the main target for the main hypothesis today and if that happen a new consolidation could be in front of us, so the price can build enough support to help 240 minutes chart to deny the previous sell off and that pattern can help the daily chart to build a future higher low to keep the momentum and try once again to reach the major resistance.

Here the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/MsPsxNMQi38

[dnaleor]

you should also take in consideration that the downtrend was started and lead by bitstamp:
We are on the key moment for the currency to decide whatwill happen:



(my bet is on downtrend)

[Lucano]

you should also take in consideration that the downtrend was started and lead by bitstamp:
We are on the key moment for the currency to decide whatwill happen:

(my bet is on downtrend)

That it's why we have markets and we trading. Some of us bet on downtrends others bet on uptrends.
you hypothesis is valid but, take into consideration that one time frame can make you bias against major multiple time frames.
The analysis of multiple time frames helps to see the big picture with more perspective.
It's just my opinon and they way I work.
  BTCBTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart still showing a potential higher low in progress with a bottom tale that is showing buyers are in palce loading their accounts and a candle stick body that if it keeps the shape inside the previous candle there is a chance that the price gets trapped and that could be a positive sign for the pattern to bring new momentum and a potential new rally with more power and more volume towards minor and major resistance.

The patterns we see right now indicates that the currency is building new patterns to take the price towards $1.000.00 and eventually the major resitance $1242.00.

The 3 days chart is showing a long bottom tale that shows the buyer with intentions to build supports in small time frames. Trying to trapped the price in the body of the previous candle stick (between $888.00 / $1015.00). this is important if the price continues with such behavior because it will help the consolidation and eventually it will help the higher low in the daily chart.

The daily chart shows a higher low in formation that it will take the price once again towards $1.000.00 and with enough volume it can visit the major resistance. $967.00 is the buying area that can trigger the higher low and push the price to higher levels.

240 minutes is showing a lower high failure after an over extended down trend. it can be trigger by the sellers and the price can visit $859.00 again and build a new double tale at the bottom of the previous support. That depends on how the buyers will react during the next 8 hours against the sellers intentions and if the prie builds a new higher low instead of going towards $859.00 we might see the buyer pushing the price to their first targert of the day which is over $1.000.00 area.

60 minutes chart is riding the SMA 200 and keeps building a strong support. that support can help the buyers to take control of the price and eventually push the price to out of the consolidation and build a new higher low could be the ideal case scenario for the market and the buyers.

A downtrend still possible and in order for that to happend, we need to see the price visiting the $859.00 area and wait for new lower high to confirm the trend.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/-ihtD5R4onQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still sending positive message and it's keeping the bullish hypothesis alive and a potential higher low in the daily chart still on it's way. Before that happen the price needs to penetrate $964.70 to bring a new set of higher low's in the small time frames.
The major time frames are showing similarities in building patterns and that will help the bullish hypothesis to stay with us until the higher low in the daily chart gets active and pushy the price towards $1068.00 and over.

The 3 day chart shows a previous red candle stick with a bottom tale that shows some of the buyers trapped into the consolidation between $1047 / $859.00. Technically is not a bad thing is take into consideration the fact that the price is building a strong consolidation and potentially a strong support to bring the price close to a new pattern that it can take the price to minor resistance and eventually to the major one.

The daily chart is in line with the 12 hours chart and is sending messages that it is possible that the bullish hypothesis still have possibilities at this time of the race and the consolidation in this time frame can help the daily chart to activate the higher low to push the price towards higher areas.

12 hours chart is a mirror of what's going on in the daily chart and the synchrony between both time frames only can create a domino effect in the other time frames and it will help the price to reach it's first targets.

240 minutes chart show a price trying to deny the a previous lower high with a new higher low. For this to happen, the price need to reach $943.00 and over to send a more powerfull message to the market makers and create the right conditions to bring more volume to the market.

We can have the 60 minutes chart joining the alignment with the major time frames and with a new higher low push the price toward $964.70 we can end the day with all the time fram in full coordination and that will be a powerful message that can bring a significant result at the end.

The bearish hypothesis still active and that to happen we need to see the price visiting $906.00 as a first target and then a penetration of the price towards $866.00  can lead the move to set new higher low's that can take the price below $822.00.

The last bearish hypothesis is fighting against a big amount of orders set in those areas to push the price once again to the consolidation areas and it will only delay the intentions for the buyer to bring the price to high levels.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/OWhIdpeL28o

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

This new week is bringing new of information from the previous week and regardless of the positive messages towards a potential new really on it's way there is a possibility that such rally will take more time than usual.

Last week the price reach new highs ($1093.68) compare to the previous ones and at the same time the price went down $859.00 creating a new support that it's bringin a new set of trades in between supports and resistance.
The information in the weekly chart is showing three possible scenarios for the price during the week and potentially the rest of the month and having the price trapped in between supports and resistance I won't be surprise if we have a powerful consolidation in construction as we speak just to bring more buyers to the areas where the price can create a reaction towards minor resistance such as $1093.08 and eventually a visit to the historical highs will happen with more buyers in control of the price.

The 3 day chart keeps the price between supports and resistance and this sideways trend can continue for a while because of the previous over extended rally that last 15 consecutive days without interruptions. This hypothesis can bring significant opportunities  in small time frames such as 60/15 minutes and the trades can be consider as counter-trends with one or two targets tops just to minimize the risk in case the volatility decided to show up.

The daily chart is showing the same behavior as the 3 day chart and it only confirms what the major time frame (3 day chart) is trying to build a powerful new pattern (higher low / bullish flag). If the price continues building a strong support for the next three to six days there is a chance that the two charts (daily / 3 day chart) get synchronize to bring more power to the bullish hypothesis and increase the possibilities for the price to reach $1242.00 and over.

Por su parte el marco diario  mantiene el mismo comportamiento del marco de 3 dias y confirma las intenciones del precio las cuales a mi parecer serian, construir soportes y consolidar el precio para un eventual rebote que alinea los marcos semanal y tres dias. si esta hipotesis se confirma, estariamos frente a una gran consolidacion que tomaria varios dias y mantendria el precio en un movimiento entre rangos.

The sideways trend is negotiable in many forms but I rather be outside the market waiting for the right pattern based on my trading plan to go in than getting trapped in a trade that it will only give me uncertainty and it will take away my objective mind set.

The conditions for a potential new rally are in progress and if the market and the hypothesis keeps the same rhythm, there is a chance for the bullish patterns to take the price to new levels and increase the opportunities for us to take the trades when the time is right and not when the emotions are in the middle.

Here, the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/G0xdjdv-AHU

[outofservice]

Lucano,

Thank you for this thread. The youtube blog is great!

I look forward to your analysis.

[Lucano]

Lucano,
Thank you for this thread. The youtube blog is great!
I look forward to your analysis.

Thank you for watching !! 

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart is showing importante messages in regards a possible new pattern that it will help the buyers to take control of the price one more time.

The daily chart is showing a correction that it can take price towards $859.00. But, all this it will only help one time frame and that's the 3 day chart to build a new higher low and eventually a new visit to the historical highs will occur.

240 minutes chart is showing a sideways trend that it can be good for traders that have trading plans using 15/5 minutes chart respectively. the 240 minutes chart is building a new lower high thatit can take the price toward the SMA 200 $826.00 and the buyers will try to bring the price back up from that main area.

The 60 minutes chart is too erratic right now is the readings are not the best.
However, we have the price with enough space to go $885.00 and after that the price can try to build a new pivot/lower high and that's when we will see the buyers trying to deny that potential pivot/lower high with a new powerful up trend towards $970.00 and this situation can just keep the price within the sideways trend that we are experiencing right now.

The price still strong and building new memory (supports more than resistance) and if the price keeps doing what its doing it that will be ideal for the buyers and the three day chart.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/Vb4dRxx9it8

[outofservice]

Lucano,

There seems to be resistance to go below 780/790 on BTC-E.

What's your opinion on how low this might drop if that line of resistance is broken?

[Lucano]

Lucano,
There seems to be resistance to go below 780/790 on BTC-E.

the supports seems strong enough to make the buyers take control and push the price up again.
Remember, we have a higher low in construction in the 3 day chart and daily in the daily chart.
if this two time frames work in the same way that will help the price towards major resistance.
 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday, the price manage to keep the patterns over $900.00. The price deny lower highs in two time frames (240/60 Minutes chart) and it went to $970.00 area which is where the next pivot is located.
For me that's a powerful sign that is showing coordination between daily and 3 days chart and if the momentum still the same for the rest of the week we might see a new rally any time soon with a powerful 3 day chart building a higher low towards $1242.00

The daily chart is building a new higher low with $943.00 as a price that can activate some of the buyers and market makers to create the domino effect toward $1.022.00 as the first target this morning. This new uptrend keeps helping the price and the 3 day chart to build a strong and powerful consolidation so a potential new higher low can come along and push the price towards $1.242.00 and go over that major resistance.

The 240 minutes chart show a price pushing the movement towards $970.00 which will be a check point for the entire new uptrend to conquer. The next higher low in this time frame can send the price towards $995.00 or it can build a new consolidation to help the 240 minutes chart to push the up trend towards the minor resistance $1023.00 which in my opinion is the main target today.

60 minutes chart is showing how strong the up trend is going and ideally a new higher low will help the bullish momentum to push the price above $1.000.00.

We stick to ur plan and we keep the hypothesis of new higher lows for daily and 3 day chart active and right now we just have to wait for the major time fram to finish it's consolidation and formation to push a new rally and why not set new historical high above $1242.00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/OPc6MsSB1rI

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The activation of the new higher low in the daily chart is keeping the price penetrating the bottom tales of the next minor resistance and also still keeping the price above $935.00 which helps the major time frames such as 3 day chart to keep the posible higher low intact and a new entry for that major time fram pattern is at $973.20.

The 3 day chart and the daily chart are keeping the coordination towards a new possible rally that can create a domino effect and bring the volume back to the trading floors and push the price toward the minor resistance and eventually a visit to the historical highs $1242.00.

The 240 minutes chart shows the denial of a lower higher a new consolidation is happening as we speak. The SMA 10 / 20 they are changing behavior and it seem that those SMA are working on a positive new trend with a new higher low in construction right now and this pattern can help more and more to the major time frames intentions towards new positive patterns.

The 60 minutes chart could be the instigator of a new rally in the next few hours. I'm saying this because in the event that the price reaches $973.20 in this time frame that will activate the 3 day higher low and it will turn the heads of the market makers towards that 3 day pattern and the volume could appear one more time and a new up trend will be in place.

The hypothesis of corrections could be possible but, only if the price manage to reach $930.00 and the $915.00 area in the 60 minutes chart.
However, this to ares are important becuase in the event that the price goes to $915.00 it might decided to build a new lower high and when the price goes up to build the pivot that's when the buyer will psuh the price toward $938.00 once again and the price will go back up again towards the SMA 200 and it will use the SMA to hold itself from it and the consolidation will back on the table one more time.

Here is the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/zOkbKUWCFGk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The correction we experienced yesterday will only delay the buyers and the market intention to activate the pattern in the 3 day chart. $973.20 still a potential level that can trigger the volume and it can push the new rally towards major resistance.

The daily chart manage to build a new support and it keeps the higher low intact. The SMA 10/20 are changing directions and they are showing positive signs to help the price and bring the bullish secenario back on.

240 minutes chart shows a correction that went to the main support and found reaction from the buyers. The previous consolidation is the new resistance and the price is trying to reach the $950.00 area to bring back up the previous positive momentum when the currency was close to trigger the 3 day chart pattern in $973.20.
The possibilities of a new correction are the same as yesterday but this time, the price will have to deal with the support $908.00 and buyer will try to push the price back up again and deny the lower high if the price manage to build such pattern.

The 60 minutes chart was the most important chart yesterday and the one that can trigger the 3 day chart patron. Instead, the seller manage to hold and control the buyers intentions and they send a powerful message with a red long range cnadle stick that manange to penetrate the SMA 200. But, it seems like it wasn't enough to create a domino effect and instead we see the price and the buyers pushing the movement toward the SMA again and put the price back on track.

The market still building memory and we see that the bullish signals remain the same and the patterns still intact. We keep the bullish hypothesis the same as long as the price respects certain parameters regardless of what we experienced yesterday.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/unooab2J-Hg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The market shows new positive situations that can bring once again a new set of opportunities. The price manage to recover from the previous correction and it keeps it self above the previous resistance in the daily chart. There is a chance that the market keeps pushing the price towards $1093.00 which in this case it could be the first main target for the 3 day chart to conquer and after that the major resistance will have a visitor that it will come with more volume and a power rally potentially will set a new higher level.

The weekly chart generate new highs compare to the previous week and the penetration continues towards the bodies on the left and potentially a new up trend can create the conditions for the price to reach $1093.68 which at this point it should be the first miner target today.

The 3 day chart shows the activation of the higher low with an entry at $956.06 and it's possible that buyers will continue with the absortion of the sellers in between small and major time frames until there is no more obstacles to bring more volume and reach $1093.68.

Daily chart is showing the recovery of the price with several messages for us. The first message was coming from a powerful up trend that deny the previous correction and send the price above the resistance and now is trying to finish the absortion of the sellers to send the price towards $1.022.99.
The other message is inside the 4 hour chart and as far as I know there is a new higher low in construction in the 240 minutes chart and it can help the price to bring volume and a new rally will show up during the day thanks to what the daily chart did during the weekend.

I dont speak about news normally but, there is fundamental situation that it can help the price to set a new path towards new highs and bring more liquidity into the market.

Last week UK policymakers have ruled out treating Bitcoin as an official currency and this can only bring a positive growth into the value of the currency and will set a new horizon for the new startups and the existing bitcoin businesses.

Having said that, the market should react slowly and positive and the possibility that more liquidity will come along will increase the possibilities for the bullish hypothesis to be valid and the price should have a new positive momentum during the week.

Here is the weekly analysis

http://youtu.be/nGu4pYITEjg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday the market was not decisive toward the new higher low in the daily and 3 day chart. the buyers seem to keep absorbing some of the sellers that still fighting to take control but the more times goes on the more chance tha buyers have to take full control of the price and push the movement towards $1022.00 as a minor target and just to bring the volume back on the buyers side.

The 3 day chart still keeping the bullish message active and if the volume appears during the course of the day the price would have an opportunity and new up trend can send the price straight to the minor resistance first which located at $1093.7

The daily chart left a dodgy candle that it has not affect the major time frame of the entire bullish message. The volume will have a significant impact during today's market session and the next few days and if the buyer keeps full control on the price that could lead the price to a new level in oder to activate the 3 day chart pattern completely.

240 minutes chart build a new support and still keeping the previous higher low active and with a new consolidation working as we speak there is a change that this entire pattern gets move by the buyers any tome soon.

The 60 minutes chart is too erratic and it's difficult to read at this point in time.
However, the time frame still good for us and as long as the price stay above the SMA 200 there is a chance that new opportunities to go in the market will come along and eventually a domino effect will appear to take the price above $980.59.

Here, the  pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/ornhQVqoCmo

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart and the daily chart are both showing higher lows and potentially a new message advising that buyer are almost done with the sellers and a potential up trend towards $1,099.99 will be on it's way.
Before that, the price will need to break the daily highs from yesterday and that will trigger the trend and eventually a new rally.

The daily chart shows a new dodgy candle stick and regardless of the uncertainty the price still showing sings of a bullish trend is on the way and the buyer still pushing the seller away of the area. Buyers need to get rid of all the sellers in that area to be able to send the price up.

The price will have to penetrate the daily highs from yesterday $974,64 so the buyers can bring more volume and only then the price will a try to reach $980,59 and $1,093,00. those are the key levels to bring the volume up and push the 3 day chart towards $1,242,00.

240 Minutes chart keep showing a massive consolidation that it's just absorbing the sellers and until there no more sellers around the area the price will stay fluctuating between support and resistance. Price should penetrate $974,64 and test test the market will a potential visit to $1,022,99 area. that should bring some volatility due the fact that $1,093,00 is the area where some of the sellers will be pushing the price down.

60 minutes chart still too erratic and it keeps complicating the readings but the SMA 200 is quite close to the price and the other SMA 10/20 still trying to show direction but there is not solid lead that can tell us that the price will use the SMA 10 as a main support to build higher lows or a new over extended move.

In the event that a correction comes along there is $932,00 area for the price to reach first and if that happens then the price will look for $920,00 and that's when we have to reevaluate our bullish hypothesis.
The only problem with the bearish hypothesis is that $932,00 area is where the SMA 200 is set and that's the 60 minutes chart so it is possible that some buyer will try to push the price back up to $950,00 and the consolidation will continue one more time.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/qeKecrFiP_k

[Lucano]

Good morning Bitcoiners

Pre Market analysis today was not possible due to technical updates from my end.

Will be back with the post market analysis in the afternoon.

Have a good trading day !!

Cheers.

Lucano.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price push the buyers away last night and create a down trend that still keeping the sellers on the game and with possibilities to push down towards $827,00 and below. The most relevant part of all this could be the fact that the correction hasn't  affect the highr low in the 3 day chart and the daily chart keeps the consolidation in between support and resistance.

The 3 day chart is keeping the higher low formation intact regardless of what happen last night and the consolidation and fluctuation of the price is keeping the bullish hypothesis with possibilities of an up trend momentum. This sideways trend can give some traders som opportunities to trade in small time frames where the profits could 1:1 / 2:1 trading in between supports and resistance.

The daily chart shows a potential triple bottom tale situation that might help the sellers to visit $867,43 and if price goes to that area then the buyer will react with buying power and volatility to push the price towards $950,00 one more time and neutralized the sell off that that correction can bring at that moment.

240 minutes shows that the price visited an important support and it might push the price back up again and this is because the importance of the area where the price is located. The area I'm mentioning now was an area where the price deny a lower high and push the price up to $980,00.

60 Minutes chart is keeping the down trend active and the price is below the SMA 200. Buyers will try to deny such correction with a visit to the SMA 200 and up. The price will ride the SMA if possible and after that a new higher low can potentially send the price one again to the previous consolidation area and above $950,00.

Here,the pre market.

http://youtu.be/r9N25v3XbOY

[kwest]

I just wanted to chime in and say that I enjoy your reports, especially the youtube videos. Keep it up.

[Lucano]

I just wanted to chime in and say that I enjoy your reports, especially the youtube videos. Keep it up.

Thanks mate !! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

It was a very interesting weekend for everyone, specially the buyers that have full control over the price and once again the volume seem to show up just at the right time. New movements in the major time frames are showing that the two higher low's (weekly/3Days) can bring more volume and more momentum to the potential rally during the course of the week.

The monthly chart shows how the actual price is trying to deny the entire candle and is possible that the price reaches again it's  own top tale $1093,68 which I believe is one of the main targets for the buyers.

The weekly chart has a new higher low and buyers are trying to bring more volume and market makers to push the trend towards the major resistance. The first obstacle is $1038,16 and after that, there is free space for the price to reach $1093,68.

3 days chart shows the same pattern htis time is another higher low and the price is penetrating the top tales that right now makes things more esy for the buyers and why not for the entire up trend. $1093.68 is the area that can bring high volatility and eventually new opportunities.

Last but not least, the daily chart shows another higher low and the synchronization fot he whole three major time frames can give a bullish result that can set a new uptrend and a new rally towards the historical highs during the course of the week.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/nLnhmKHbjfw

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

The correction we've experience yesterday only delay the buyers intentions and the bullish message still the same. It is possible that the sell off yesterday was influence by different factors but the fundamentals still intact and the market continues with a high spirit towards a potential up trend.

The daily chart shows a retracement that still hasn't deny the previous higher low and keep the bullish signal intact. There is  new support where the price will bring more traders and volume should come along to try to push the price back up to the resistance area $1006,99 and up $1038,16.

The 12 hour chart is showing a higher low in formation which a very positive signal for the buyers and the market makers. This higher low can the one pushing the price towards $1038.16 so the price can recover from yesterday.

240 minutes chart did manage to have a down trend and an over extended trend that reach the major support and the SMa 200. Those two factors manage to stop the sell off and it is bringing more buyers. That only benefit the price towards a new up trend towards minor resistance if the volume keeps coming during the course of the day.

60 minutes chart is showing a price pushing the up trend and trying to reach the SMA 200. Price can ride the SMA 200 for the rest of the day or in the last case scenario the price can push toward $1006.99 and the entire movement can help the price to recover from yesterday.

The down trend hypothesis can happen if the price build a lower high in 240 minutes chart and if that occur then the price can try to visit $867,00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/PtCJJQhsBSY

[dnaleor]

We do not see so much bullish signs on other exchanges. The reason? MtGox spread is getting bigger and bigger by the day...

Maybe consider including btc-e and/or bitstamp in your analysis?

[Lucano]

We do not see so much bullish signs on other exchanges. The reason? MtGox spread is getting bigger and bigger by the day...

Maybe consider including btc-e and/or bitstamp in your analysis?

The technical aspect can be use in the other trading platforms.
If you read multiple time frames and do a cross check with all the trading platform graphics you will see that all of them are almost identical.

I will keep an eye on the other platforms and share the insights. 

[Miz4r]

I am surprised so many people still base their analysis on MtGox data. I'm sure there used to be a good amount of correlation between the exchanges, but with all the issues around Gox this correlation is surely shrinking fast and it will skew your analysis. There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion, the price is much closer to the actual market value and you don't have to deal with Gox noise.

[Lucano]

There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion

What would be your way of trading bitcoin?
P.S: There is traders here and they are using the technical analysis on a daily basis because is their profession...you know that?

[Miz4r]

There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion

What would be your way of trading bitcoin?
P.S: There is traders here and they are using the technical analysis on a daily basis because is their profession...you know that?

What's your point exactly? I just meant that I think that using Gox charts for analysis is silly at this time. Yes, it may correlate pretty well but Gox doesn't set the market value and there's lots of noise there because of withdrawal issues and speculation on a possible default/shutdown. Look at the volume on Gox lately, it's declining and traders want out and go to other more healthier exchanges with bigger volume like Stamp or BTC-e.

[F-bernanke]

I enjoy your videos Lucano, thanks alot for sharing them.

I agree on the sentiment that gox is more or less irrelevent these days, I would focus on the Stamp chart.

[outofservice]

It's interesting to see so many "not for" Gox. I have never used Gox but when I got into BTC some many months ago Everyone was using Gox. With the wild $180-$200 price difference to Bitstamp and BTC-E... that's just too volatile for me. I'll stick with BTC-e and Stamp to gauge where the market really is and what it's actually doing. It's much easier to day-trade with those two, IMO.

It would be interesting to poll how many have moved to other platforms and away from Gox. Seems like many are jumping the Gox ship.

[jayspin]

+1 for bitstamp or btce. Personally, I use bitstamp, never used gox.

Lucano, I enjoy your posts as well, though I have to say I've been wondering why you're still sticking with gox, knowing all the issues they are having pretty much everywhere. I (and I'm sure many others) simply don't trust them. Just look at the charts.

In any case, thanks for the time you're putting in and I hope to read more from you in the future.

[MatTheCat]

+1 for bitstamp or btce. Personally, I use bitstamp, never used gox.

Lucano, I enjoy your posts as well, though I have to say I've been wondering why you're still sticking with gox, knowing all the issues they are having pretty much everywhere. I (and I'm sure many others) simply don't trust them. Just look at the charts.

In any case, thanks for the time you're putting in and I hope to read more from you in the future.

If he is sticking with Gox in his analysis, then he aint a real trader. Simples.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bacause you ask for the analysis of the other platforms such as Bitstamp here it is.

The daily chart shows a new opportunity for the buyers to push the price back up into the previous consolidation area.
The 12 hours chart shows that the price and the buyera manage to deny the previous correction and the $834,00 could be the next target to reach.

With the 240 minutes chart we can see a previous lower high failure and now the new higher low seems to be the one who can bring the price towards $834,00 but, before that the price need to penetrate $812,93 to create new higher high and bring the volume back into the market.

60 minutes chart shows a strong consolidation and a higher low that at this point is the correct signal for the volume to show up.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/JI7SPl-Y89I

[dnaleor]

thx again for the great analysis. It is difficult with those different exchanges.

How I see it, gox is NOT irrelevant, but you need to consider the folowing:
some people are obviously buying on gox en selling on other exchanges. This results in a "bullish bias" on gox en and "bearish bias" on the other exchanges (f.e. Bitstamp)

To measure the effect, one need to look at bitcoinaverage.com

The technical analysis is important for the price movements, but when I trade, I try to look at at least 3 exchanges before I act. Usually I trade on bitstamp, but I check gox and/or BTC-e if it confirms my analysis:

When I see f.e. a sell signal on bitstamp, I check gox, when it confirms this, I am certain. When gox is not clear, i check BTC-e and if that exchange confirms, I sell. But I need a strong signal before I sell due to the bearish bias.

The opposite is true when I buy: a buy signal on bitstamp is mostly already enough for me to buy, but I check BTC-e to be sure. I do not rely on gox for checking buy signals, due to the bullish bias.

edit: I sometimes use also this method: when I see a sell signal on gox and it is confirmed by BTC-e, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I sell on bitstamp. When I see a strong buy signal on BTC-e, and it is confirmed by gox, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I buy on bitstamp.

[Lucano]

thx again for the great analysis. It is difficult with those different exchanges.

How I see it, gox is NOT irrelevant, but you need to consider the folowing:
some people are obviously buying on gox en selling on other exchanges. This results in a "bullish bias" on gox en and "bearish bias" on the other exchanges (f.e. Bitstamp)

To measure the effect, one need to look at bitcoinaverage.com

The technical analysis is important for the price movements, but when I trade, I try to look at at least 3 exchanges before I act. Usually I trade on bitstamp, but I check gox and/or BTC-e if it confirms my analysis:

When I see f.e. a sell signal on bitstamp, I check gox, when it confirms this, I am certain. When gox is not clear, i check BTC-e and if that exchange confirms, I sell. But I need a strong signal before I sell due to the bearish bias.

The opposite is true when I buy: a buy signal on bitstamp is mostly already enough for me to buy, but I check BTC-e to be sure. I do not rely on gox for checking buy signals, due to the bullish bias.

edit: I sometimes use also this method: when I see a sell signal on gox and it is confirmed by BTC-e, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I sell on bitstamp. When I see a buy signal on BTC-e, and it is confirmed by gox, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I buy on bitstamp.

Top Men with a great trading plan. +1 

[1Pakis]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bacause you ask for the analysis of the other platforms such as Bitstamp here it is.

The daily chart shows a new opportunity for the buyers to push the price back up into the previous consolidation area.
The 12 hours chart shows that the price and the buyera manage to deny the previous correction and the $834,00 could be the next target to reach.

With the 240 minutes chart we can see a previous lower high failure and now the new higher low seems to be the one who can bring the price towards $834,00 but, before that the price need to penetrate $812,93 to create new higher high and bring the volume back into the market.

60 minutes chart shows a strong consolidation and a higher low that at this point is the correct signal for the volume to show up.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/JI7SPl-Y89I

You may also try this site for analysis next time
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Sellers still trying to keep the control over the price regardless of what the buyer have donde in the last two days which they manage to deny the down trend in more than 90%.
We still see a potential higher low in the 12 hours chart that it might help the buyer eventually. but right now the price , the buyers and seller will have to deal with the support whete the price is located and one of them will take control of the situation for the rest of the week.

The daily chart is showing a potential lower high in formation that can send the price towards $682,00.
However, the intraday market show that the seller dont have an easy task in that sense and the buyers might not allow that to happen due the fact that some of the small time frames are showing a different scenario.

The 240 minutes chart is showing shows that the actual down trend is not working towards $725,00 instead, the price is trying to push back up and deny the down trend. The price have a lot to do today to show a solid direction before the volume show up.

The 60 minutos chart is showing a previous over extended down trend and the price is trying to build a new lower high but, the fact that there is an over extended trend, the lower higher can fail and the price will try to go toward the previous consolidation which near the SMA 200 and $796,00 / $804,04 could be the new areas for a potential consolidation in case the price can't make it towards $725,00.

Here, The pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/4aZxvMK5154

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price in Bitstamp shows the major time frames (W/3D) with higher lows in formation and the daily chart manage to deny the previous correction with 3 days up trend that it's trying to reach $834,00.
MtGox already have a higher low pushing the price towards $973,00 hand is creating consolidations (W/3D) with potential higher lows in construction that can bring more volume to the market and eventually such volumen can push towards $1038,16 which a minor resistance before the historical highs.

Bitstamp is showing major time frames building almost the same bullish patterns and there is a chance that a new up trend can bring the price towards $834,00 and after that the price will have free space towards a minor resistance located at $909,06.

The daily chart is showing and up trend that it manage to deny the previous correction in more than 90%, regardless of the over extended trend the price still have a chance to reach $834,00 which can be the area that it can bring more buyers and more volume to up trend.

The 12 hours chart shows a lower high failure and that pattern it's now a new higher low that it has the same target $834,00 before the buyers brings more volume into the up trend. After that, the next target will be $909,96.

240 minutes chart shows a new higher low close to the SMA 200 and with a potential to penetrate the SMA 200 and use it as a main support until a new pattern pushes the price to $834,00.
Same situation with the 60 minutes chart but in this case the price is already above the SMA 200 and there is a new higher low in formation with entry @ $804,50.

The pre market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/F4oAQpZwPw4

[dnaleor]

great new format!!

[Lucano]

great new format!!

Thank you 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bitstamp, $834,00 is the area that can trigger the volume and maker makers can bring a new rally towards $1163,00.

The weekly chart shows a lower high failure that can turn into a new higher low towards $1163.00 and a potential double top tale will be form at that level.

With the 3 day chart we have a similar situation but in this case the higher low is already active and the entry is in place ($827,38). If the price reaches the entry level that can bring more participants into the market and the volume will appear towards $976,50 which a minor resistance and is also part of the targets that the price needs to reach in order to find a way towards the historical highs.

The daily chart shows an over extended trend that it was trying to reach $834,00 and it can continue towards that pivot. The other hypothesis could be that the price creates a correction towards $725,00 and a new sideways trend will occur one more time if the volume dont follow the buyers.

MtGox in the other hand is showing some similarities compare with Bitstamp and the $974,00 is the area for the price to trigger the up trend and bring more volume to the market towards $1242,00.

The weekly Chart shows a long consolidation that the price keeps building between support and resistance and the new challenge for the buyers resides with the $1039.16 area and if the price reaches that level that could be the area that can activate the higher low that can take the price towards the historical highs.

The 3 day chart still solid and with bullish signs towards higher prices. The price will have reach $969,40 which is the entry level of the buying pattern and after that a minor resistance will be the next target which is located at $1093,68 and it could build a double top tale at that level or it will continue towards the historical highs with an over extended trend.

The daily chart is the one that it should bring more signals toward the potential rally and if the price penetrates $969,40 and $974,00 there is not more obstacles for the price to try to reach $1038,16.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/7C0CeXrcSHg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bistamp shows a correction after a previous over extended up trend. The correction is part of the movement from previous sessions and the down trend can reach $791,00 which is a point of reaction where buyers will try to push the price back up to the daily highs and we could end up with a sideways trend during the rest of the day.

The 12 hour chart shows a correction that can build a new higher low or it can continue the down trend towards a support area which is located at $795,00 and at the same time the buyer will try to push the price up and a sideways trend will occur with a price fluctiation in between $795,00 / $813,91.

240 minutes chart is keeping the price below the SMA 200 and there is a consolidation in place right now that can either take the price down towards a major support, build a new double bottom tale that it will help the buyers or it will continue the down trend and a sell off will arrive to penetrate $770,70 and it will try to reach $725,00 during the day.

60 minutes shows also a price below the SMA 200 but it seems more like the price is trying to ride the SMA 200  and the price is finding big obstacle on the left hand side (massive previous consolidation) that it has to be penetrate it by the price.

MtGox Shows the same correction and the price has not been able to penetrate the support which is located at $903,40.

The 12 hour chart show similar bearish situation compare with the daily chart and if the down trend manage to visit the $903,40 there is high probability that the buyers will react with a potential up trend that it will try to deny the previous correction and they buyer will continue pushing the price towards at least $951,90  so the message will be higher low's in small time frames towards $973,00 and $1038,16.

240 minutes chart has a price below the SMA 200 and still trying to penetrate the new support create it by the price itself. Buyer will find ways to push the price up from now on and if the price penetrates the SMA 200 and it stays above the SMA there is a chance that the price will use the SMA 200 as support to reach minor resistance.

60 minutes chart still too erratic but with a price bellow the SMA 200 and no too many obstacle on the left hand side for the prce to keep going down it's going to be difficult for sellers to keep the momentum and buyers will fight against the down trend when the price reaches points of reaction.

http://youtu.be/_63z0nZjVIQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Markets still erratic and without volume which increasis the posibilities of a long consolidation that can help the buyers side in the long run.
SMA 200 in Bitstamp y MtGox seems to have an important role in order to allow the price towards higher levels or major support.

Bitstamp show a correction in the daily chart that still can help the buyers intentions and eventually a new higher low can become the next buying pattern towards $909,96 which is on of the targets right now.

the 12 hours chart is doing almost the same as the daily chart and for buyer to take full control one more time we need to see the price reaching $810,00 and keep the momentum towards $820,00 so the previous correction gets deny and the price goes back into minor resistance areas and above the SMA 200 in some of the small time frames (4Hours Chart).

240 minutes chart is showing the price bellow the SMA 200 and with a long consolidation that doesn't seem to have a firm direction. Seller can continue the down trend towards major support but the volume needs to show up before buyer take control and push the price above the SMA 200 and validates the potential bullish formation in the 12 hour chart.

60 minutes chart is building a new lower high but the price is resisting the bearish pattern and is using the SMA 200 as support and that eventually could be an opportunity for the buyer to push the price back up again.

MTGox is showing almost the same patterns and the only difference compare to Bistamp is the fact that 240/60 minutes is showing a price bellow the SMA 200 and the long consolidation in both time frames seems not to bring volumen from buyers or sellers.

The SMA 200 for both trading platforms seems to have the key to make the price react and generate a chain reaction towards supports or resistance.

http://youtu.be/CsYpSWM-VSM

[dnaleor]

it amazes me how you manage to not loose your enthusiasm with such boring price action
Not that I mind the boring price, I think a long consolidation is great
I keep watching

[Lucano]

it amazes me how you manage to not loose your enthusiasm with such boring price action
Not that I mind the boring price, I think a long consolidation is great
I keep watching

Sometimes this boring moments makes you want to find a hot beach and stay there forever!! LOL
you right about this but, at the same time I use to have the same sort of boring situation with the stock market and we knew when will be a good time to go out and take a holiday LOL!!!
Bitcoin still a baby and we have to keep an eye on it, regardless !!
sometime doing nothing is more effective than doing a lot of useless trades!!

Will keep watching !! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning bitcoiners,

The floods here in England are affecting my internet since Thursday and I haven't been able to work properly for days!!

I look forward to back on the videoblogs tomorrow.

have a great day trading.

Cheers.

[Lucano]

Afternoon Bitcoiners,

A weak price and lower volume can keep the sellers with possibilities to push the correction one more time.
The $755,42 is the new target for the buyer and if the buyer can push the price towards that area that means we are talking about a lower high faliure and the bearish message can change and a new strategy will be prepare for the next targets.

http://youtu.be/AZ3PzV2h0mo