Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

Dear Bitcoiners,

We are a team of technical traders from South America.

After Three months of sharing our pre market and post market analysis (Spanish/Mercado y Economia/Videoblog Anlisis Tecnico) with over 80% accuracy for the whole Spanish speaking community we decided that it's time to share our knowledge with English speaking community.
Our purpose is only to share our readings with you all and show the opportunities that we believe based on our trading methodology and trading plan the Bitcoin market is creating for all of us.
We use MtGox charts for several reasons.
Why?

• It the best and only source with the most amount of data to read based on technical analysis at the moment
• The way MtGox charts moves, every single trading platform follows. So be bias until some one else has more account holders and more liquidity than MtGox

The last two statements are not mine, that's the market expressing it's own behavior and I've just read what the candle sticks are saying.
I know that our analysis will create question, concerns and critics and I will be happy to assist you all if I can, based on my small knowledge compare to every one out there.

Donations and tips are up to you.
we are not doing this to impress you or any one out there and the reason for doing what we do is because we believe that knowledge belongs to the whole world and it should be share without tags on it but, if you find that our videoblogs are helping you to increase your profitability do some charity with your friends or family even around your own community and spread the word about Bitcoin so we all can get out of this miserable, poisonous and deadly economy we all live in.

We wish you all the best posisible success that Bitcoin can bring to your wallets.

P.S: “It is only about things that do not interest one, that one can give a really unbiassed opinion; and this is no doubt the reason why an unbiased opinion is always valueless.”
― Oscar Wilde,

[1713291467]

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[1713291467]

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[1713291467]

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[balanghai]

is this the website of the group you mentioned: https://mundobitcoin.org/?

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

"P" formation in all the main charts.The bullish formation still keeping the main hypothesis alive.

All the time frames are in coordination with this particular P formation and it's helping the previous hypothesis to stay active and in the event the such consolidations breaks up and reaches $145.00 then the next target will be the main resistance $148.91.
The major resistance is the main one for the monthly, weekly and daily chart so that's why it's taking its time to absorb this entire area.

http://youtu.be/aCZFZjPDaGk

[Dealdialonline]

Nice. Thanks for an excellent analysis.

[smoothie]

Does your technical analysis take into account fundamentals like solvency, legal proceedings, etc when determining what data feed to use?

[Lucano]

Does your technical analysis take into account fundamentals like solvency, legal proceedings, etc when determining what data feed to use?

The analysis is strictly technical.
Your talking about solvency (Liquidity). The currency still erratic in small time frames such as 60(No so much) 15/5/3 minutes.

• Legal proceedings- i don't know what do you mean.
• what data feed to use..."It the best and only source with the most amount of data to read based on technical analysis at the moment
  The way MtGox charts moves, every single trading platform follows. So be bias until some one else has more account holders and more liquidity than MtGox"
  

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The recommendation of a long trade yesterday only manage to hit one target. Risk/Reward 1:1.
However, the 60 minutes chart is showing a possible new behavior which involve the SMA 200.
That behavior it's called "Riding the SMA200" and if that happens we still have a chance to see the price going towards the major resistance ($148.61) which is the intraday hypothesis for us.

Here the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/1X_1Y1cyJH4

[bitcoin44me]

Only technical analysis?
What is it worth in a bitcoin market driven by manipulation, and fundamentals?

[MoreFun]

Only technical analysis?
What is it worth in a bitcoin market driven by manipulation, and fundamentals?

How can you do short-term analysis when fundamentals haven't changed for half year or so (except gox problems)? Always up or what?

[Lucano]

Good Evening Bitcoiners,

Sell off.

Our main hypothesis for the day was no possible thanks to the Lower high created in the 60 minute chart.
The over extended down movement in 240 minute chart was looking toward the SMA 200 and could be using the SMA 200 to go up and build the next pivot (Lower high) to continue with the down trend towards $129.00
If the next formation denies the previous sell of on at least 60%, it's possible that we all see the price bounce back to resistance area and it that case will be  $138.00

Here the Post Market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayIWI35ICeQ&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[marcovaldo]

Thanks for the analysis

[Spekulatius]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

[Lucano]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

Pre Market: it's only due the fact that I'm starting my trading day.
Post Market: pretty much about what happened and what we did.

About indicators:
Too much analysis too much paralysis.
I would love to have more indicators to use here but so far I dont use them and to be honest it keeps me away to be too bias.
As far as I know, an indicator is good when you have evidence and results to back up such indicator and so far I haven't seen one for Bitcoin.
I would love to see some of those to test them in the field.

P.S: Thank you for watching 

[Spekulatius]

@OP: Thx for that free format!

What do you mean by pre and post market analysis?
There is no pre or post market in Bitcoin because exchanges run 24/7.

Would you mind using some more indicators where you see fit?

Can I follow your charts on tradingview.com?

Pre Market: it's only due the fact that I'm starting my trading day.
Post Market: pretty much about what happened and what we did.

About indicators:
Too much analysis too much paralysis.
I would love to have more indicators to use here but so far I dont use them and to be honest it keeps me away to be too bias.
As far as I know, an indicator is good when you have evidence and results to back up such indicator and so far I haven't seen one for Bitcoin.
I would love to see some of those to test them in the field.

P.S: Thank you for watching 

I did some backtesting of many indicators on BTC myself, so far

I can suggest:
PSAR (depending on your trading mode, I do swing trading in short-mid term intervals, therfore I go with 0.04, 0.04, 0.1 on tradingview for 4hr intervals)
EMA (10, close) in 2hr
EMA (21, close) in 2hr
Bollinger Band (20, close, 2) any hr
RSI (14, close) any hr, makes sense from 2hr upwards

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A break up failure was creating the perfect conditions to initiated a sell off that we experience yesterday.

The price visited the SMA 200 in the 240 minutes and the movement was over extended with over 9 candle sticks.
Such visit to the SMA 200 is creating several hypothesis that we need to take into consideration.

• The price can use the SMA 200 as a main support and go up to create the first Lower High. such Lower high can fail and instead the price will consolidate around the $138.00 price.
• Again, using the SMA 200 as a main support the price will intent to create a new Lower high and it could fail. Instead the price will deny the previos sell off and it will go up again looking to hit the $142.00 price.

The third and last hypothesis could be that the continuation of the sell off and it can build a new Lower High in 240 minutes chart with a possible visit towards $124/12100 price.
For this last hypothesis we need to see the previous two hypotesis not happening int the 240.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/FI7dwB_R_4k

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last week end up keeping the price below $145.00 and it didn't allow the buyers to take control and push the price towards the major resistance. Instead, the price manage to create a lower high in the 60 minute chart which created the perfect conditions for the sell off we all experienced in the market.
The riding price that involved the SMA 200 didn't happen in the 60 minutes chart in previous sessions, instead of using the 60 minutes chart, it happened and still happening in the 240 minutes chart which still building a consolidation and still using the SMA 200 as a main support to keep putting pressure to either break up or down.
The weekly chart still showing a Bullish flag that keeps getting more narrow in it's own formation regardless of the SMA's 10-20 showing divergence the price still and the macro trend still bullish.
I'm taking into consideration the main charts here which are Weekly, 3 days (Clarkmoody) and daily.
The 3 day chart shows a formation that it can create the Higher Low that can take the price towards $148.00 and upwards.

The bearish hypothesis could happened when the conoslidation in the 4 hour chart and the "b" formation in the daily chart generates prices below $130.00 and then the penetration which can be seen first in the 60 minutes chart can create a new lower high that can take the price to $128.20 as a point of reaction and then $125.00 could be the target with a possible second target around $122.00

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/WusHalhTylw

[afbitcoins]

Nice work 

[Lucano]

Nice work 

Thank you.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The consolidation keeps the price between margins ($3-5) and at the same time the price still weak and it seems that the consolidation will continue for a while.

The daily chart shows with the "b" formation a particular pattern, with daily candles sticks showing bottom tales and it seems that buyers and market makers still trying to load orders and if that's the case that can help a possible break up around $135.00
If such break up happen we can look for a next Higher Low in the 60 minute chart to go long towards $140.00

The bearish hypothesis still intact and if the price break down $130.00 it will be possible for the pull back to go towards $125/122.00

Watching something very important that it's happening for the last four days and it's the low liquidity that it's making time frames such as the 60 minutes chart extremely erratic.
It's very evident that some external facts are happening such as Atlantis and BTC-TC.
I'm a technical trader and as long as I don't have an solid evidence that this two situations are related with MtGox it self I've just have to keep reading the charts and so far the pull back its clear and evident.

The three day chart still showing possible Higher Low and if gets active it can take the price back on track towards Major resistances.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/alRpCnmDJyw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Early this morning we saw how the consolidation was penetrated after a break down failure in the 60 minute chart.
11 red candles stick were denial by only four green candles sticks in the 60 minutes chart.
This particular formation was showing a powerful movement in the 240 minutes chart and still keeping the momentum going towards new highs.
Regardless how erratic 60 minute chart was, such time frame still very important and vital for the readings.

A break down failure, a denial of the previous formation, a visit to the SMA 200 in one uptrend, a first higher low breaking through and finally the price is using the SMA 200 as support building a second higher low.
Seems to me that the next time frame to watch is the 240 minute chart to find a new entry when the first higher low gets created and the pattern can direct the price towards $142.23 which is the max highs for the main resistance.
It's not simple and easy as it sounds but taking into consideration several charts and the formations we see so far, the uptrend can be possible.

Last but not least, the 3 day chart shows a new higher low active and in completed motion towards the top tales but, first it has to penetrated bodies and the top tales.

We should have action for a while.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/8q2IgjuGO0Y

P.S: waiting for the new mic to arrived today.