Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

great charts, nice analysis!

subscribed on youtube. I guess a donation will folow

donation will be nice thank you !!

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[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A weak price can give you a chance to set up your next trading plan.
Lower highs in 60 minutes chart and the price using the SMA 200 as a main support shows that it's a slightly possibility that the down trend continue towards the new support which is $175.30.

I'm supporting this hypothesis in the fact that the daily chart is looking to build new higher low and the 240 minutes chart continues with the retracement and it already penetrate more than 50% of the long range green candle stick.

The 60 minutes chart is trying to push the price back up but the previous two lower highs shows that a potential new up trend it's going to take some time to be set by a potential new set of patterns and right now the price is using the SMA 200 a a main support which I believe it will not last to long if the consolidation fails in the construction of a new support in that area.

Ideally, a new higher low in the daily chart will be the perfect option but, at the moment the best option is to have a consolidation so the price will give some time to the daily chart to generate the conditions of a new higher low and then we can set new long trades.

It's too soon to tell and the price seems like it might have another idea to make thing happen. Perhaps a new down trend towards $166.43 can be on the table.

Will keep watching.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/wHWvGiXIh6k

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last week the currency show us that a previous sell off can generate a weak price and it's more easy to down than to go up.
The good thing about the pull back from last week was the fact that such powerfull movement just helped the currency to generate new patterns such as a higher low in the daily chart that it can help to bring the price back on track towards once again $233.00.
But, let's don't forget that the reason what I'm saying this is because the 3 day chart right now it's showing a new powerful candle stick that it's trying to deny the previous one and turn the entire pattern into a Bullish sandwich.

The weekly chart it's showing that buyers are trying to absorb the previous sell off and the weekly candle stick is showing a long bottom tale that eventually will help to build a new higher low and if that occurs we can see that higher low helping the price towards $266.00 and set new highs.

The new week is showing a daily chart with a new higher low and on the left hand side of the same chart there is not obstacles for the price to try once again to reach the top tales of the previous movement which are the major resistance. $233.00 it's the new target to conquer for the price right now in the daily chart.

Daily, 4 hours and 60 minutes chart the three look align and with higher lows that looks like they are trying to break up and look for the next intraday target which is $216.00.
After that, we can see a potential new visit to $233.00 can be more evident.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/vYLWE3WbcRU

[Lucano]

Good day Bitcoiners,

The price is building a buying areas as we speak $207/208.

At the same time, the price is creating a powerful consolidation that it can break up and push the price towards new highs towards $216/217.00.

All the time frames are align and at the moment the main hypothesis towards the up trend still strong and it's the opportunity for the market makers to create once again a new positive trend.

The daily, 12 hours, 4 hours and 60 minutes chart shows similarities towards a bullish trend.

All this signs are helping the 3 day chart to build the bullish sandwich and if that happen, the price can potentially fly towards $233.00.

Here, The pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/9_z1ipo1W7o

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The yesterdays higher low in the 240 minutes chart manage to create new highs ($216.50) towards the minor resistance which is located at $217.50 and with the price absorbing such resistance there is a chance that the price will break up again and pushes it self to the next targets $227/233.00.

The daily chart is showing a price with not obstacles on the left hand side toward the close and open body of the two long range candles and if the momentum keeps the price up we can visit $227.00 at any time.
This can give the price and the market makers a very strong fact to push the price and create another possible powerful up trend towards $233.40 and set new highs eventually.

The 240 minutes chart is setting a new higher low as we speak and it keeps the hypothesis for long trades active and with a powerful possibility to penetrate $217.50.

If the formations we see so far in this particular time frames continue to push the price and send positive message to the market and the traders, we can experience a new rally during the rest of the week and part of the weekend.

Here, the pre market.

http://youtu.be/wFkdLKX2qqA

[Its About Sharing]

Again, excellent commentary and very educational (e.g. - You said piercing the wicks is easier then piercing the bodies, regarding followup candles going up.)

Do you look at many long term candle charts? I hope you don't mind if I share one here, using a bit of GANN. That part is experimental as we don't have a history in which to really have a solid start point, but I think it might be close. What are your thoughts long term? I think the long term chart is and has been VERY strong. I think the base diagonal line support is actually conservative. To get a prediction in writing, I say 350 is possible this year and next year, a minimum of 600 and breaking 1000 is more in the plans imo. A world economic situation that will worsen is a part of the reason. And China continuing to use BTC is another (Note China's main exchange has more volume than Gox or Stamp and is approaching the sum of both). And just wait for other countries like India to start.

[Lucano]

Again, excellent commentary and very educational (e.g. - You said piercing the wicks is easier then piercing the bodies, regarding followup candles going up.)

Do you look at many long term candle charts? I hope you don't mind if I share one here, using a bit of GANN. That part is experimental as we don't have a history in which to really have a solid start point, but I think it might be close. What are your thoughts long term? I think the long term chart is and has been VERY strong. I think the base diagonal line support is actually conservative. To get a prediction in writing, I say 350 is possible this year and next year, a minimum of 600 and breaking 1000 is more in the plans imo. A world economic situation that will worsen is a part of the reason. And China continuing to use BTC is another (Note China's main exchange has more volume than Gox or Stamp and is approaching the sum of both). And just wait for other countries like India to start.

Please share as many hypothesis as you want. the topic is for all of us.
To be honest, I try not speculate too much in terms of core trades because panic and greed are very funny on people this days.
But, seeing your graphic I' agree with you in terms how the possible price by the end of the year.
At this point it is a strong possibility that the price reach over $266.00 during the course of next month.
China is the market to watch and volume will keep coming from that part of the world.

P.S: India by the middle of 2014 will be the one who help to push this up towards...new highs !!

[Tzupy]

I have a question for Lucano: considering that in your analysis you repeatedly talk about the testing of the 233$ peak, the peak
of which EW do you believe 233$ was? Because if it was of wave 5, it is unlikely to touch it again. OTOH if it was of wave 3, then
we are now in the first sub-wave of wave 5, at the end of the second sub-sub-wave or the start of the third sub-sub-wave,
and we are likely to reach close to the former 233$ peak, and sometime later in the third sub-wave to reach a new ATH.
Even if it is so, I'm not sure with which $ this can happen on Gox, there doesn't seem to be enough for a strong push up.

[Lucano]

I have a question for Lucano: considering that in your analysis you repeatedly talk about the testing of the 233$ peak, the peak
of which EW do you believe 233$ was? Because if it was of wave 5, it is unlikely to touch it again. OTOH if it was of wave 3, then
we are now in the first sub-wave of wave 5, at the end of the second sub-sub-wave or the start of the third sub-sub-wave,
and we are likely to reach close to the former 233$ peak, and sometime later in the third sub-wave to reach a new ATH.
Even if it is so, I'm not sure with which $ this can happen on Gox, there doesn't seem to be enough for a strong push up.

There is many ways to read the market and many tools to analyzed data. you name it.
My reading are almost classic charts.
The reason why I talk about the major resitance is becuase the market has memory and it it always try to reapet it self in many opportunities.
Obviously every one has it's own strategies and it's own trading plan including it's technical analysis.
the waves theory it's a reading that it's not my field.

In terms of Gox and the data that it's around such as Bitstamp, BTCChina, BTC-e ...every one seems to manage almost the same sort of graphics and if you look at their charts you can see the similarities which I think it's a great opportunity when you can read the biggest trading platforms and you end up setting trades in all of them when you see the price is going to x, y, z because you end up creating a plus in you entire operation because you have a price going in the same direction and three or four platforms with different prices are doing the same.

[Tzupy]

OK. Thank you for the answer.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price manage to visit $217.90 area but the minor resistance was not penetrate and we have new highs in the daily charts $216.50 from yesterday's market.

The movements of yesterday seems like a double bottom tale in the 240 minutes chart is just another set of new signs to help a daily chart to build again a new higher low.

Yesterday, 240 minutes chart generate a pull back that sets a new support and it seems like a new lower high is in formation but, you have to have a look closely again to that area and see that the price went back up and deny the previous pull back in more than 70%.

The 60 minutes chart is showing a previous double top that it manage to create an extended down trend (extended in red candles but not in movement) and it reacted right in front of the SMA 200 and after it created a lower high, the same lower high was deny by the up trend and right now we see a consolidation in progress and the SMA it's use as support for such purpose with the other SMA's 10 and 20 crossing each other announcing a change on the previous down trend.

Down trends can be possible if the price manage to reach £203.81 and after that a new lower high in 60/240 minutes can push the price down towards areas like $189/$175.

The hypotesis for up trends is a bit more complex and the 60 minutes chart will be the one who sends the first signals if the price manage to break up the consolidation and push the price to visit 216.50 again. This particular scenario will help 240 chart to confirm what we call a lower high failure and after that a new up trend can generate a powerful and possible over extended up trend with no chance of higher lows in the 4 hour chart and possible higher lows in the 60 minutes chart and if the price breaks the $217.90 the next target or point of reaction could be $227./$233.00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/dRZ_o35JbUY

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bircoiners,

Yesterday's market was showing a retracement building a support.
Now we see higher lows in daily and 240 minutes chart that it will increase the possible break up towards $217.90 and after that, there is not obstacles for the price towards $233.00.

Higher Lows in daily and 240 minutes chart can push the price up in the next few hours.
If such penetration occurs there is not reason why the price can reach daily and weekly major resistance and eventually will experience a rally that it can push the price $16 to $17 up.

I know it sounds a lot of dollars right now but, when you learn and keep learning about how the currency works and behaves, this kind of movements are not surprise at all.
To see this happening we need to break $217.90 to have an option and only then we can see how the entire market will react.

Last but not least, we have to talk about down trends and for those patterns be conseider we need to see a price going back again to $204.00 so we can reconsider a new strategy.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/28spHn1RbEo

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

October was an impressive month that push the price to $233.40 and we saw an incredible performance.
Buyers in total control of the price shows that it's potential for the price to reach once again the $233.40 and after that the next target believe it or not, it could be $266.00.

Here, the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/_uzOxCxo62U

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Price reaches new highs. $242.00
Watching the major time frames (3days/daily/12hours) seems like the long range candles stick are sending messages that the up trend is coming to an end and consolidations will be the new situation intraday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3jYtGx0G_U&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Code_red]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

[notme]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

Always stick to the plan.

[8fold]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

We should appreciate what Lucano is doing, and keep in mind that this is only his oppinion, as candid as it may be. Whatever action we take with or without regarding his advice is strictly our responsibility.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

$269.79999 is the new historical highs.
No more obstacles around, over extended trend in all the time frames, high volume from BTCCHINA pushing the price up.
Powerful momentum for the currency and for the ones who took advantage of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyLd-ZD4vd0&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[dnaleor]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

We should appreciate what Lucano is doing, and keep in mind that this is only his oppinion, as candid as it may be. Whatever action we take with or without regarding his advice is strictly our responsibility.

it is always a good thing to use the simple buy&hold strategy with at least 50% of you bitcoin holdings.
I personally, trade with 25% of my holdings

[Code_red]

Yep just venting my stupid mistakes on others