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Author Topic: Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin  (Read 44024 times)
Lucano (OP)
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December 02, 2013, 12:30:51 PM
 #121

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

November is gone and the bitcoiners and the masses has not limits when is about challenging the old FIAT.

Now, back into the technical aspects of our currency I see a correction happening as we speak but it is not one of the normal correction that we see on FOREX, NYSE or any other markets. this correction is a side ways one with bottom and top tales creating enough margins for the traders to operate and with the small time frames giving us the right opportunities to increase the gains of our trading performances.

November, the candle stick of last month have a top tale that is signaling the path for an important and necessary correction.

Please understand that when I'm talking about a correction I'm not saying or I'm not wishing that the price goes to hell...hell not!!.

What I'm trying to say here is that in order to have a healthy and more stronger currency compare to the old FIAT rubbish we have to deal with, we need that correction or at least a side ways trend to build memory in the market and leave the word "bubble" behind us.
Having said that, I won't be surprise if we have few weeks of a bearish market and all this is for the sake of our currency becuase eventually the rally will come back again.

The daily chart was showing yesterday that the price was push by the sellers towards $840.00 area and it manage to find a major support with a higher low in that area which it help to create a point of reaction and right now we see that the price is back over $1k thanks to the major support that the price found at that time.
This reaction and possible consolidation can be tricky because if the market can't be patience enough with a possible long consolidation it can go any where.
This month will see higlhr low failures and breakdown failures that it can create small rallies or sell off's but with a price respecting major bottom tales and major resistance until the weekly chart builds enough data to go for new highs and start a new up trend.

I want to bring a subject that I haven't talk about publicly and it's about "Company Adquisitions with Bitcoin".

In the middle of this year we experienced the first bitcoin adquisition with "Erik Voorhees sold SatoshiDICE for 126k bitcoin $11.5 Million USD" the historical event created an important sell off the day when the news went public and it took more than one week for the price to recover.
We might see this events happen again, it will force the correction to happen more faster and it bring more confidence to the market and all the participants.

Last month the currency show to the whole financial world that gold and bitcoins has to co-exist.
Now, let's bring more memory to the market and to consolidate the currency for the long run.

Here is the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/Gz8SoAw0b-k

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Lucano (OP)
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December 03, 2013, 10:48:48 AM
 #122

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A new higher low in the daily chart is pushing the price up to the major resistance and potentially new highs will show up any time soon.
However, the weekly chart is way too over extended and the higher low in daily can fail and bring the price back to $1,000.00.

The 240 minutes chart is showing that the previous lower high was denial and it manage to push the price up to the point that right now it's absorbing the bottom tales of the major resistance.

The 60 minutes chart is over extended in candles and movement and it might reach $1170.00 and then it will try to build a new higher low.

15 minutes chart was the one who trigger the new up trend and it might continue but resistance are in the middle of the biggest target for today's market which is reaching the historical highs and create new ones.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/VSFbitD1ln0

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December 12, 2013, 01:35:25 PM
 #123

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The weekly chart is showing that the price is trapped between the bodies of the candles and it seems that this formation can lead to a long consolidation.
Such consolidation can create a fluctuation in price that can lead the currency to move sideways (max/min. support and resistance)
This could be good for trading in small time frames.

The daily chart is showing today's candle with new minimums compare to the previous day and this can produce new signs toward the seller and their option to take control of the price.

The formation with the daily chart can keep the possibilities of a new lower high in this particular chart and in the event that such patterns appears the first target could be $453.29. It will take few more red candles to happen but it's possible and we should keep our options open and our strategy ready for a change.

NOw, the next hypothesis could lead the price to create a long consolidations and eventually the price will create a new higher low and at that point such pattern can lead the price toward major resistance $1242.00 and this option should appear in coordination with the possible consolidation in the weekly chart. Having those two major time frames will push the price up with enough power towards prices over $1.300.00

Last but not least is the 60 minutes chart that it's showing a price below the SAM 200 and with a long consolidation that it's trying to build new supports that it might help the up trend hypothesis in the long run.

A weak price still with us but, we need to be patient and wait for the signals and if those signals comes at the right time we can ride the new up trend early than usual and bring new positive growth to our trading accounts.

Here is the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/qLoaGwI_chs

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December 13, 2013, 10:42:55 AM
 #124

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday's market showed a price fluctuation between max/min in the small time frames and it continue to support the main hypothesis of potential higher low in formation in the daily chart towards $1242.00.

The daily chart manage to generate a new lower low leaving a bottom tale that it's important for a potential higher low in this particular time frame.

240 minutes chart build a new support that it should helpthe price to bounce back towards $1068.00 and if that happen, the next higher low in the 60 minutes chart can take the price towards $1155.00.
For this hypothesis to happen the price needs to absorb all the bottom tales and the bodies on the left hand side. It will take some time but eventually it will happen.

60 minutes chart is using the SMA 200 as a support to push the price back to the resistance and if keeps going this way it will give us more opportunities during the day.

Here is the pre market.

http://youtu.be/F6-RszKgUyw

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December 16, 2013, 12:11:27 PM
 #125

Good Mroning Bitcoiners,

Regardless of the fact that the price still building supports and resistance, still no signs of break up trends instead we see new potential corrections towards $690.00 if the Lower High on daily gets completely active.

The weekly chart shows a consolidation that it can build a bullish flag or a "P" formation and eventually it will help the price towards major resistance ($1242.00) and potentially it will generate new historical highs.
But for that to happen we need few more days and probably a couple of weeks of price fluctuation between max/min; supports/resistance and only then will see potential patterns in major time frames to trade long.

The buyers reaction will appear any time soon and we will see the buyers trying to push the price towards minor resistance areas first such as $900.00 area.

I can recommend coupe of trades using the small time frames such as 15 minutes or 5 minutes char but at the moment the volume and the readings are not the best and it's a risk that we might get trapped in the middle of a consolidation and that's something you don't want to deal with at this point.

Low volume means high risk that some one comes in and moves the price few dollars and then the price goes back again to the entry level within seconds or in the worse case scenario that trader can cause a new down trend.

The hypothesis for long trades can happen if during the first few days of the week the price pushes it self up towards $990.00. Only then we can seek for new higher lows in the small time frames such as 240/60/15 minutes charts and that will confirm possible lower high failure on the daily chart and that's a poweful message that we should all take advantage of it.

The low volume once again is not helping the patterns to evolve 100% and it can be a problem if you are one of those traders that want's to do a couple of trades per day with two digits profit.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/p8j24TEPDsk

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December 17, 2013, 11:33:33 AM
 #126

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The three day charts is showing a patterns that denials the previous long range candle stick and it shows a weak price with the sellers in full control at the moment. The sellers still trying to push the price down and if the consolidations in minor time frames can't hold the the price we might see a new down trend towards $576.00.

The daily chart create a new higher low failure and the sellers are in full control and this can go on and on if the consolidation in the small time frames can hold the price and the daily chart generates new lower prices.

240 minutes chart is building a "b" formation but, at the same time that pattern can turn into several hypothesis.
  • A braeak up that can push the price up towards the SMA 200 which is located at $862.00 and that will give us a new set of higher lows and we can look for new buying opportunities.
  • A new Lower High that can take the price towards $576.00.

The 60 minutes chart will show the first signals of new up trends if the price manage to visit the $824.89 and that will be the first signal for a new behavior in the market towards an up trend.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/boph9V_G3rI

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December 17, 2013, 12:33:06 PM
 #127

Thanks as always Lucano for the information.

I'm curious about your thoughts on the China news?
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-bitcoin-crackdown-intensifies-2013-12

Seems like this is the catalyst for the recent large drop.

Thanks,
IAS

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BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
Lucano (OP)
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December 17, 2013, 01:28:10 PM
 #128

Thanks as always Lucano for the information.

I'm curious about your thoughts on the China news?
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-bitcoin-crackdown-intensifies-2013-12

Seems like this is the catalyst for the recent large drop.

Thanks,
IAS
Nice to see you around IAS.

It's always two sides of the story and people always says. "in terms of a headlines you only see 30% of the real deal, then you have to look for the other 70%"

check this article. http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190

Laters.  Wink

Lucano (OP)
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December 18, 2013, 11:24:12 AM
 #129

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

From a personal point of view I have to say that the correction was necessary to build new memory in the market for the currency and to build new set of opportunities that can bring new players to the market.
A possible continuation of the sell off still intact and we are visiting $453.29 as we speak. The next target could be $290.00 but, it seems almost impossible to go down towards the SMA 200 or $290.00 but, with the market and specially with bitcoin everything is possible.

The weekly chart is showing a powerful long range candle stick pushing the price down and erasing everything that it was creating several weeks ago and with a lot of space and no obstacles to stop the price it seems like the reaction from the buyers might take some time.

The three day chart manage to erase with three candles an entire long range candle stick and still pushing towards the bottom tales of the green and red candle sticks on the left hand side and it could claim lower areas during the course of the day.

The daily chart is showing a powerful lower high that still want to go more down and it will try to penetrate $453.29and if that happen the next targets could be $395.00 and $290.00.

240 minutes chart is showing the beginning of a new over extended down trend and it might continue towards lower prices and that could increase the sellers volume toward a new target $395.00

Things dont look great for some trader but in the other hand this correction bring a bunch of new opportunities and I will be looking at possible counter trends in small time frames to take advantage of the situation.

Just make sure that greed does not step in front you and go for one or may be two target and get out and this can be a new trading strategy until the buying patterns from the major time frames come back and then we can all be friends of the trend again.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/h3EaLeJDPnI

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December 19, 2013, 11:03:44 AM
 #130

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last night the price manage visited the major support and the buyers still reacting with new signs. A lower high denial in the 240 minutes chart is the first major signal for a potential change on the bearish trend.

The daily chart is showing that today's candle stick will try to reach yesterday's high prices ($717.02). This move could be the one confirming the intentions from the buyers side to set a new up trend and a possible lower high formation that eventually at the end of few market sessions could become a lower high failure that can help the weekly chart to create the first higher low in over 12 weeks.

240 minutes chart is showing a Lower High failure and a power full movement towards $717.02 and if that happends with some decent volume then the price can lead it's way up and create a powerful over extended up trend towards $750.36 and $780.00

60 minutes chart is showing a powerful over extended up trend that it will create a possible new higher low towards $717.02 and if this happen then the price will try to reach $750.36 and with more volume coming in it is possible that the price pushes it self up towards the SMA 200 and this will confirm the possible over extended trend in the 240 minutes chart.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/W-VO4W28FEk

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December 19, 2013, 02:18:00 PM
 #131

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

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December 19, 2013, 05:10:06 PM
 #132

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same Tongue
Lucano (OP)
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December 19, 2013, 05:55:13 PM
 #133

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p
ok, fair enough. will work on that one !!

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December 19, 2013, 05:57:14 PM
 #134

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same Tongue

Will do !!  Grin Wink

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December 20, 2013, 11:20:39 AM
 #135

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The major time frames are sending new messages. Two potential higher low's are in progress (weekly and 3 day chart) and if such patterns come to live the price will reach $1242.00 very soon.

Yesterday the daily chart build a long range candle stick that it manage to reach new highs compare to the previous day and is sending a signal that possible new up trends are on their way and the price manage to recover some of the areas that the seller had yesterday. the price still showing that a visit to the next major resistance is possible today.
The

Now, 240 minutes chart is showing a powerful uptrend towards the SMA200 but, if this time frame manage to build a new higher low then the price will try to reach $928.00

The 60 minutes chart already build 3 higher low's and still using the SMA10 as support in order to reach the SMA200 and eventually after a possible consolidation a new penetration can reach $928.00 and it will confirm the main hypothesis for today's market session.

Down trend hypothesis are always in front of us and just remember that at this point the daily chart is showing a price going up to build a new lower high and lower high can turn into a lower high failure to help the major time frames (3 day's and weekly chart) to confirm what I believe it could be the next rally.


Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/mAWPMW-rhQ0

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December 20, 2013, 03:51:09 PM
 #136

Thanks for making these videos Lucano.
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December 20, 2013, 04:59:01 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2013, 05:17:36 PM by Missionary
 #137

Hi. I enjoy watching your videos. Thank you for putting the effort into them. However, I must ask: Isn't there a keyboard shortcut to remove all those lines that you have painted? Seems like a waste of time to have to click on every one of them to remove them. :p

indeed, I was thinking the same Tongue

Will do !!  Grin Wink

Well, not for our sake - but for your convenience. What program are you using to draw those lines?

I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z
You can find more information about my plans here: http://btcmission.com
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December 20, 2013, 05:05:15 PM
 #138

I check you video daily. Makes me more confident using my trading plan.
Tipped you again just a few minuetes ago Wink
Last time I tipped you, BTC was still 200 USD, so the ammount is a little smaller this time Tongue
Lucano (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 11:03:08 AM
 #139

I check you video daily. Makes me more confident using my trading plan.
Tipped you again just a few minuetes ago Wink
Last time I tipped you, BTC was still 200 USD, so the ammount is a little smaller this time Tongue
Happy to hear you talking about a trading plan. Excellent.
Thanks for the help.
wishing you more success and more BTCBTC
Lucano.  Cool

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December 23, 2013, 11:29:26 AM
 #140

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The weekly chart start it this new week with a price pushing up and it might try to cover the entire body of the previous candle.

At the same time, the three day chart has a new candle stick that it will try to send the first signal to build a new higher low that potentially will try to reach $774.47 as a first target and we still have to considere the possible lower high that it will take the price potentially towards $455.00 or instead of building this lower high, the price can keep going up and reach $839.00 which in that case will help the hypothesis of new higher low's for weekly and potentially the three day chart.

The daily chart could be the one sending us clear signals for the long or short hypothesis. Right now the daily chart is showing a lower high that potentially can fail towards lower levels and the buyer's can send the price towards the previous high's from yesterday's market which are located at $774.47.
If this happen then a lower high failure could be the beginning of a new up trend towards the levels in the major time frames.

For the hypothesis of long trades to happen the price needs to reach $774.47 so the lower high failure can be confirm and after that a potential new trend will bring the volume to push the price towards high levels such as $839.00

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/fnIg8STO4Y4

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