Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[jayspin]

+1 for bitstamp or btce. Personally, I use bitstamp, never used gox.

Lucano, I enjoy your posts as well, though I have to say I've been wondering why you're still sticking with gox, knowing all the issues they are having pretty much everywhere. I (and I'm sure many others) simply don't trust them. Just look at the charts.

In any case, thanks for the time you're putting in and I hope to read more from you in the future.

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[MatTheCat]

+1 for bitstamp or btce. Personally, I use bitstamp, never used gox.

Lucano, I enjoy your posts as well, though I have to say I've been wondering why you're still sticking with gox, knowing all the issues they are having pretty much everywhere. I (and I'm sure many others) simply don't trust them. Just look at the charts.

In any case, thanks for the time you're putting in and I hope to read more from you in the future.

If he is sticking with Gox in his analysis, then he aint a real trader. Simples.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bacause you ask for the analysis of the other platforms such as Bitstamp here it is.

The daily chart shows a new opportunity for the buyers to push the price back up into the previous consolidation area.
The 12 hours chart shows that the price and the buyera manage to deny the previous correction and the $834,00 could be the next target to reach.

With the 240 minutes chart we can see a previous lower high failure and now the new higher low seems to be the one who can bring the price towards $834,00 but, before that the price need to penetrate $812,93 to create new higher high and bring the volume back into the market.

60 minutes chart shows a strong consolidation and a higher low that at this point is the correct signal for the volume to show up.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/JI7SPl-Y89I

[dnaleor]

thx again for the great analysis. It is difficult with those different exchanges.

How I see it, gox is NOT irrelevant, but you need to consider the folowing:
some people are obviously buying on gox en selling on other exchanges. This results in a "bullish bias" on gox en and "bearish bias" on the other exchanges (f.e. Bitstamp)

To measure the effect, one need to look at bitcoinaverage.com

The technical analysis is important for the price movements, but when I trade, I try to look at at least 3 exchanges before I act. Usually I trade on bitstamp, but I check gox and/or BTC-e if it confirms my analysis:

When I see f.e. a sell signal on bitstamp, I check gox, when it confirms this, I am certain. When gox is not clear, i check BTC-e and if that exchange confirms, I sell. But I need a strong signal before I sell due to the bearish bias.

The opposite is true when I buy: a buy signal on bitstamp is mostly already enough for me to buy, but I check BTC-e to be sure. I do not rely on gox for checking buy signals, due to the bullish bias.

edit: I sometimes use also this method: when I see a sell signal on gox and it is confirmed by BTC-e, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I sell on bitstamp. When I see a strong buy signal on BTC-e, and it is confirmed by gox, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I buy on bitstamp.

[Lucano]

thx again for the great analysis. It is difficult with those different exchanges.

How I see it, gox is NOT irrelevant, but you need to consider the folowing:
some people are obviously buying on gox en selling on other exchanges. This results in a "bullish bias" on gox en and "bearish bias" on the other exchanges (f.e. Bitstamp)

To measure the effect, one need to look at bitcoinaverage.com

The technical analysis is important for the price movements, but when I trade, I try to look at at least 3 exchanges before I act. Usually I trade on bitstamp, but I check gox and/or BTC-e if it confirms my analysis:

When I see f.e. a sell signal on bitstamp, I check gox, when it confirms this, I am certain. When gox is not clear, i check BTC-e and if that exchange confirms, I sell. But I need a strong signal before I sell due to the bearish bias.

The opposite is true when I buy: a buy signal on bitstamp is mostly already enough for me to buy, but I check BTC-e to be sure. I do not rely on gox for checking buy signals, due to the bullish bias.

edit: I sometimes use also this method: when I see a sell signal on gox and it is confirmed by BTC-e, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I sell on bitstamp. When I see a buy signal on BTC-e, and it is confirmed by gox, but not yet visible on bitstamp, I buy on bitstamp.

Top Men with a great trading plan. +1 

[1Pakis]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bacause you ask for the analysis of the other platforms such as Bitstamp here it is.

The daily chart shows a new opportunity for the buyers to push the price back up into the previous consolidation area.
The 12 hours chart shows that the price and the buyera manage to deny the previous correction and the $834,00 could be the next target to reach.

With the 240 minutes chart we can see a previous lower high failure and now the new higher low seems to be the one who can bring the price towards $834,00 but, before that the price need to penetrate $812,93 to create new higher high and bring the volume back into the market.

60 minutes chart shows a strong consolidation and a higher low that at this point is the correct signal for the volume to show up.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/JI7SPl-Y89I

You may also try this site for analysis next time
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Sellers still trying to keep the control over the price regardless of what the buyer have donde in the last two days which they manage to deny the down trend in more than 90%.
We still see a potential higher low in the 12 hours chart that it might help the buyer eventually. but right now the price , the buyers and seller will have to deal with the support whete the price is located and one of them will take control of the situation for the rest of the week.

The daily chart is showing a potential lower high in formation that can send the price towards $682,00.
However, the intraday market show that the seller dont have an easy task in that sense and the buyers might not allow that to happen due the fact that some of the small time frames are showing a different scenario.

The 240 minutes chart is showing shows that the actual down trend is not working towards $725,00 instead, the price is trying to push back up and deny the down trend. The price have a lot to do today to show a solid direction before the volume show up.

The 60 minutos chart is showing a previous over extended down trend and the price is trying to build a new lower high but, the fact that there is an over extended trend, the lower higher can fail and the price will try to go toward the previous consolidation which near the SMA 200 and $796,00 / $804,04 could be the new areas for a potential consolidation in case the price can't make it towards $725,00.

Here, The pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/4aZxvMK5154

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price in Bitstamp shows the major time frames (W/3D) with higher lows in formation and the daily chart manage to deny the previous correction with 3 days up trend that it's trying to reach $834,00.
MtGox already have a higher low pushing the price towards $973,00 hand is creating consolidations (W/3D) with potential higher lows in construction that can bring more volume to the market and eventually such volumen can push towards $1038,16 which a minor resistance before the historical highs.

Bitstamp is showing major time frames building almost the same bullish patterns and there is a chance that a new up trend can bring the price towards $834,00 and after that the price will have free space towards a minor resistance located at $909,06.

The daily chart is showing and up trend that it manage to deny the previous correction in more than 90%, regardless of the over extended trend the price still have a chance to reach $834,00 which can be the area that it can bring more buyers and more volume to up trend.

The 12 hours chart shows a lower high failure and that pattern it's now a new higher low that it has the same target $834,00 before the buyers brings more volume into the up trend. After that, the next target will be $909,96.

240 minutes chart shows a new higher low close to the SMA 200 and with a potential to penetrate the SMA 200 and use it as a main support until a new pattern pushes the price to $834,00.
Same situation with the 60 minutes chart but in this case the price is already above the SMA 200 and there is a new higher low in formation with entry @ $804,50.

The pre market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/F4oAQpZwPw4

[dnaleor]

great new format!!

[Lucano]

great new format!!

Thank you 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bitstamp, $834,00 is the area that can trigger the volume and maker makers can bring a new rally towards $1163,00.

The weekly chart shows a lower high failure that can turn into a new higher low towards $1163.00 and a potential double top tale will be form at that level.

With the 3 day chart we have a similar situation but in this case the higher low is already active and the entry is in place ($827,38). If the price reaches the entry level that can bring more participants into the market and the volume will appear towards $976,50 which a minor resistance and is also part of the targets that the price needs to reach in order to find a way towards the historical highs.

The daily chart shows an over extended trend that it was trying to reach $834,00 and it can continue towards that pivot. The other hypothesis could be that the price creates a correction towards $725,00 and a new sideways trend will occur one more time if the volume dont follow the buyers.

MtGox in the other hand is showing some similarities compare with Bitstamp and the $974,00 is the area for the price to trigger the up trend and bring more volume to the market towards $1242,00.

The weekly Chart shows a long consolidation that the price keeps building between support and resistance and the new challenge for the buyers resides with the $1039.16 area and if the price reaches that level that could be the area that can activate the higher low that can take the price towards the historical highs.

The 3 day chart still solid and with bullish signs towards higher prices. The price will have reach $969,40 which is the entry level of the buying pattern and after that a minor resistance will be the next target which is located at $1093,68 and it could build a double top tale at that level or it will continue towards the historical highs with an over extended trend.

The daily chart is the one that it should bring more signals toward the potential rally and if the price penetrates $969,40 and $974,00 there is not more obstacles for the price to try to reach $1038,16.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/7C0CeXrcSHg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bistamp shows a correction after a previous over extended up trend. The correction is part of the movement from previous sessions and the down trend can reach $791,00 which is a point of reaction where buyers will try to push the price back up to the daily highs and we could end up with a sideways trend during the rest of the day.

The 12 hour chart shows a correction that can build a new higher low or it can continue the down trend towards a support area which is located at $795,00 and at the same time the buyer will try to push the price up and a sideways trend will occur with a price fluctiation in between $795,00 / $813,91.

240 minutes chart is keeping the price below the SMA 200 and there is a consolidation in place right now that can either take the price down towards a major support, build a new double bottom tale that it will help the buyers or it will continue the down trend and a sell off will arrive to penetrate $770,70 and it will try to reach $725,00 during the day.

60 minutes shows also a price below the SMA 200 but it seems more like the price is trying to ride the SMA 200  and the price is finding big obstacle on the left hand side (massive previous consolidation) that it has to be penetrate it by the price.

MtGox Shows the same correction and the price has not been able to penetrate the support which is located at $903,40.

The 12 hour chart show similar bearish situation compare with the daily chart and if the down trend manage to visit the $903,40 there is high probability that the buyers will react with a potential up trend that it will try to deny the previous correction and they buyer will continue pushing the price towards at least $951,90  so the message will be higher low's in small time frames towards $973,00 and $1038,16.

240 minutes chart has a price below the SMA 200 and still trying to penetrate the new support create it by the price itself. Buyer will find ways to push the price up from now on and if the price penetrates the SMA 200 and it stays above the SMA there is a chance that the price will use the SMA 200 as support to reach minor resistance.

60 minutes chart still too erratic but with a price bellow the SMA 200 and no too many obstacle on the left hand side for the prce to keep going down it's going to be difficult for sellers to keep the momentum and buyers will fight against the down trend when the price reaches points of reaction.

http://youtu.be/_63z0nZjVIQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Markets still erratic and without volume which increasis the posibilities of a long consolidation that can help the buyers side in the long run.
SMA 200 in Bitstamp y MtGox seems to have an important role in order to allow the price towards higher levels or major support.

Bitstamp show a correction in the daily chart that still can help the buyers intentions and eventually a new higher low can become the next buying pattern towards $909,96 which is on of the targets right now.

the 12 hours chart is doing almost the same as the daily chart and for buyer to take full control one more time we need to see the price reaching $810,00 and keep the momentum towards $820,00 so the previous correction gets deny and the price goes back into minor resistance areas and above the SMA 200 in some of the small time frames (4Hours Chart).

240 minutes chart is showing the price bellow the SMA 200 and with a long consolidation that doesn't seem to have a firm direction. Seller can continue the down trend towards major support but the volume needs to show up before buyer take control and push the price above the SMA 200 and validates the potential bullish formation in the 12 hour chart.

60 minutes chart is building a new lower high but the price is resisting the bearish pattern and is using the SMA 200 as support and that eventually could be an opportunity for the buyer to push the price back up again.

MTGox is showing almost the same patterns and the only difference compare to Bistamp is the fact that 240/60 minutes is showing a price bellow the SMA 200 and the long consolidation in both time frames seems not to bring volumen from buyers or sellers.

The SMA 200 for both trading platforms seems to have the key to make the price react and generate a chain reaction towards supports or resistance.

http://youtu.be/CsYpSWM-VSM

[dnaleor]

it amazes me how you manage to not loose your enthusiasm with such boring price action
Not that I mind the boring price, I think a long consolidation is great
I keep watching

[Lucano]

it amazes me how you manage to not loose your enthusiasm with such boring price action
Not that I mind the boring price, I think a long consolidation is great
I keep watching

Sometimes this boring moments makes you want to find a hot beach and stay there forever!! LOL
you right about this but, at the same time I use to have the same sort of boring situation with the stock market and we knew when will be a good time to go out and take a holiday LOL!!!
Bitcoin still a baby and we have to keep an eye on it, regardless !!
sometime doing nothing is more effective than doing a lot of useless trades!!

Will keep watching !! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning bitcoiners,

The floods here in England are affecting my internet since Thursday and I haven't been able to work properly for days!!

I look forward to back on the videoblogs tomorrow.

have a great day trading.

Cheers.

[Lucano]

Afternoon Bitcoiners,

A weak price and lower volume can keep the sellers with possibilities to push the correction one more time.
The $755,42 is the new target for the buyer and if the buyer can push the price towards that area that means we are talking about a lower high faliure and the bearish message can change and a new strategy will be prepare for the next targets.

http://youtu.be/AZ3PzV2h0mo

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bitstamp still showing a weak price and seller have full control of the sitation. There is a chance that price can reach the $530,00 area and a new set of patterns will appear.
Nothing to say about MtGox apart from the fact that account holders still waiting for the bitcoin withdraw service to be back to normal.
Pice is weak and it's a good time to create new trading plans to take advantage of the situation.

http://youtu.be/pLaP0F7zAdQ

[Lucano]

Good day Biutcoiners,

Bitstamp still showing a weak price with a potential consolidation in place that it might gives the price and the buyers a new good opportunity to push the price up towards $676,00 and possibly $720,00.

The possibilities that the price reaches $676,00 are intact and there is a chance that a new consolidation will stop the sellers and it will give the buyers a new opportunity to bring new buying patterns during the day.

Here, the market analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTO5llWJg8o&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw&feature=share

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Bitstamp still leading the price behaviour and it seems like the daily chart is showing signs of reaction from the buyers side after the price visited $538.01 which is close to a major support.
Counter trends could be the new alternative at this point and why not small time frames such as 15/5 Minutes can be the ones to operate today untill better signals appear in the major time frames.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/FSuXgEa_jig