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Author Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]  (Read 770348 times)
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Vigil
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January 02, 2014, 08:13:13 PM
 #6541

Except that our 24TH miners are a massive combination of many smaller miners, I doubt our farm going online would be in jumps of 24TH, I would instead imagine a gradual rise to 24TH thus making a distinction impossible.

As Ken would add the modular parts the mining capacity would increase in much smaller amounts, also Bargraphics says that he knows that miner is not us, of all people why would he lie?

No they aren't. Each 24.5TH unit relies on 1 base unit + 6 extensions. They function as a whole unit. The extensions need the base. They go on and off all at the same time.

Start with the base, go online.

Add an extension, added power is now online.

Keep doing this until all 24TH is online, now move on to the next one.
You have no way to answer the questions I posed above if this is not Ken. Ken would have run the miners off-line first during assembly.
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drawingthesun
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January 02, 2014, 08:13:39 PM
 #6542

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?

I agree Stenkross, it's depressing that my fellow shareholders are sinking to this level. I know you all are desperate, so am I. We need to hold strong and try not to go mad.
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January 02, 2014, 08:14:16 PM
 #6543

... and with our 2013 sales at $6,311,788.33 we have a very good share of the market.

Real sales (trades with payment and delivery) or preorders? If you call it a sale, you can pay dividends too...

Even if these are actual sales and Ken has that money, we take a dividend on profit only, not revenue. Many things will bring that number down before it comes out to us.

Yeah sure. Dividends are calculated after expenses. Too bad we never get any detailed and really usefull reports...

Baah its a bad helpless feeling.  We cant trade any shares (not that i want to) and dont get any dividends since ages. They are worth like 0.000 for us atm. I hope this is changing soon.
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January 02, 2014, 08:14:37 PM
 #6544

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.
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January 02, 2014, 08:23:59 PM
 #6545

Just crunching some numbers here...

$6,300,000 in sales
Over $1,000,000 from the Avalon refunds
Let's assume everything else has been spent.

Those sales would total around 780,000 GH (based on an average of $8/gh cost price? Big (conservative) guess here.)
Let's assume hardware cost is about $1/gh to produce - that seems to be a pretty reasonable number - bugger it, let's go conservative at $2/GH, meh, an additional 100% margin for error on conservative numbers.

$1.56mil is needed to fulfill pre-orders, which leaves ActM with $5.74mil capital.

$5.74mil spent on miners at $2/gh = 2.870 petahash

If we could get that online within a month we'd have 10% network share. Within two months we'd have 5% network share. Within 3 months 2.5% network share.
or... 360 btc/day, 180btc/day or 90btc/day respectively.

Lets say 90BTC/day - If this is paid 100% on dividends it's 0.000063btc/share/week until the first 0.0025 is paid out. Which it would within 9 months if ActM can hold 2.5% network share.

Can ActM hold network share? Well, there is only one other company we know of that is selling shovels and also mining with them, that's ASICMiner. These two companies can race to the bottom faster than any other miner, including manufacturer-miners who aren't selling hardware. In theory ActM can therefore gain network share very quickly. In theory with even just 90btc/day revenue ActM can add 36TH/day, or 1PH/month. Not including hashrate increases from sales.

I've separately calculated the chip production cost for ActM to be around $0.5/GH which makes the $/GH estimates above fairly conservative.

I almost wasn't going to bother with a best case estimate but what the hell, this place is low on positivity and christmas cheer. It's even low on pessimistic realism.

10% network share would be 0.0002769/share/week - it would take 9 weeks at that rate to pay out 0.0025 btc - OR - 144TH/day (4.3PH/month) - plus $5mil/month in hardware sales - total = 6.8PH/month
With those numbers we could rapidly grow to 20% network share which would bring us about 520 BTC/day - allowing us to add 200+TH/day or around 6.2PH/month (not including hardware sales)

TLDR;
We will have chips
We will have more pre-orders (and they will exceed order cancellations)
We will have $5.7mil+ to blow on hashrate
We will have x% market share
We will get our 0.0025 back within a year

It's just a matter of when, although even 3 months from now would make every bitching little kid in this thread very happy.

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
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January 02, 2014, 08:27:04 PM
 #6546

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.
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January 02, 2014, 08:31:47 PM
 #6547

67Cuda, you weaken your position by posting stupid meme pictures, grow up.

My position is just fine, drawing, last thing I need is advice from a guy who gave his retirement money to an American alcoholic.
That considered, don't you go growing up too soon.  You  got many years of backbreaking workahead of you.
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January 02, 2014, 08:32:07 PM
 #6548

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.

This.

And this poor unknown firm, if they aren't also selling shovels, will lose the long term race.

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
Vigil
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January 02, 2014, 08:33:31 PM
 #6549

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.
And adding power in the exact increment of our advertised machines?

No. Highly unlikely. Much more likely that this is, in fact, ActM.

Ken was here. He did not deny it. Nor did the operator of Eligius deny whether it was ActM.
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January 02, 2014, 08:34:33 PM
 #6550

-snip-

Lets say 90BTC/day - If this is paid 100% on dividends it's 0.000063btc/share/week until the first 0.0025 is paid out. Which it would within 9 months if ActM can hold 2.5% network share.

-snip-

Love the attitude and the numbers (been doing similar calculations myself since September), but only 50% of the profit (up to 0.0025btc/share after which it drops to 40% of 50% or 20% total profit) from ActM + VMC will be going to shareholders, the remaining 50% of the profit will go to reinvestment into ActM (for sustainability of our share of network hashrate)
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January 02, 2014, 08:37:47 PM
 #6551

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.
And adding power in the exact increment of our advertised machines?

No. Highly unlikely. Much more likely that this is, in fact, ActM.

Ken was here. He did not deny it. Nor did the operator of Eligius deny whether it was ActM.

Actually much more likely someone is putting 50 x 500gh units online one at a time... or 12 x 2TH units (ahem cointerra)

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
Vigil
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January 02, 2014, 08:41:14 PM
 #6552

Actually much more likely someone is putting 50 x 500gh units online one at a time... or 12 x 2TH units (ahem cointerra)
CoinTerra's units run stable, numbnuts. The machines on Eligius are obviously not finalized in either hardware or software. Rule-out any unit which has been shipped to end-users.
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January 02, 2014, 08:45:53 PM
 #6553

Vigil you have done a great job here - the new Colombo. I'm 75% convinced it's us or out first major customer taking a 'beta' product with support.
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January 02, 2014, 08:47:21 PM
 #6554

Actually much more likely someone is putting 50 x 500gh units online one at a time... or 12 x 2TH units (ahem cointerra)
CoinTerra's units run stable, numbnuts. The machines on Eligius are obviously not finalized in either hardware or software. Rule-out any unit which has been shipped to end-users.

Cointerra didn't get chips until new years eve... so if I'm a numbnuts its because I suggest 12 x 12th units might be cointerra. silly me.

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Vigil
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January 02, 2014, 08:54:21 PM
 #6555

Actually much more likely someone is putting 50 x 500gh units online one at a time... or 12 x 2TH units (ahem cointerra)
CoinTerra's units run stable, numbnuts. The machines on Eligius are obviously not finalized in either hardware or software. Rule-out any unit which has been shipped to end-users.

Cointerra didn't get chips until new years eve... so if I'm a numbnuts its because I suggest 12 x 12th units might be cointerra. silly me.
Well, then Cointerra is out because these machines started on Dec. 24th. and were incrementally added to in multiples of 24.5 TH all the way to 254 TH (245 TH + initial 9 TH) on Dec. 30th.
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January 02, 2014, 08:55:07 PM
 #6556

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?
You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

We're blind? You're the one who keeps claiming roughly 50 Th/s increments are roughly 25 Th/s increments.
You're also stupid for not realising that there are numerous ways of adding numbers together to make 50.

The fact is, there's zero evidence to support your claim and evidence disproving it in the form of Ken stating that he is still waiting for chips.


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January 02, 2014, 08:55:50 PM
 #6557

VinceSamios: wizkid057 / Luke-Jr - would you guys mind confirming for the idiots in the ActM thread that the 250TH account is not ActM. plz, thanx.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.new#new
wizkid057: I dont even know who "ActM" is
VinceSamios: ActiveMining aka Virtual Mining Co aka Ken Slaughter
wizkid057: never heard of them
wizkid057: heh
VinceSamios: Can you do me a major favour and just pop in and say "it's not ActM" - would be super appreciated
wizkid057: then someone will ask me to say "its not XXX" or "its not YYY" ... I guess I made the mistake before by pointing out that its not hashfast, but, I think I'm just going to let users figure it out on their own from now on
VinceSamios: I see your point.
wizkid057: I'll just say here that I've never heard of "ActiveMining" until you mentioned it just now

I guess that settles that. Sucks to be Vigil.

I actually know who the miner is... I would not have posted otherwise.

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Vigil
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January 02, 2014, 08:56:48 PM
 #6558

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?
You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

We're blind? You're the one who keeps claiming roughly 50 Th/s increments are roughly 25 Th/s increments.
You're also stupid for not realising that there are numerous ways of adding numbers together to make 50.

The fact is, there's zero evidence to support your claim and evidence disproving it in the form of Ken stating that he is still waiting for chips.



50 TH is divisible by 25 TH -> 2 x 25 = 50. All the increases were multiples of 25 TH. All the drops and power-ups were multiples of 25 TH. There are many ways to get 50 TH but not repeatedly and through multiple power-downs and restarts. The last addition was 25 TH (24.5 TH).
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January 02, 2014, 09:00:10 PM
 #6559

VinceSamios: wizkid057 / Luke-Jr - would you guys mind confirming for the idiots in the ActM thread that the 250TH account is not ActM. plz, thanx.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.new#new
wizkid057: I dont even know who "ActM" is
VinceSamios: ActiveMining aka Virtual Mining Co aka Ken Slaughter
wizkid057: never heard of them
wizkid057: heh
VinceSamios: Can you do me a major favour and just pop in and say "it's not ActM" - would be super appreciated
wizkid057: then someone will ask me to say "its not XXX" or "its not YYY" ... I guess I made the mistake before by pointing out that its not hashfast, but, I think I'm just going to let users figure it out on their own from now on
VinceSamios: I see your point.
wizkid057: I'll just say here that I've never heard of "ActiveMining" until you mentioned it just now

I guess that settles that. Sucks to be Vigil.

I actually know who the miner is... I would not have posted otherwise.
Total BS. He never denied it was Active Mining or Ken. Ken may not even have opened the account acknowledging anything regarding ActM. I can sign up for Eligius and no one would have any idea who I was. Wizkid dodged the question.
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January 02, 2014, 09:01:57 PM
 #6560

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?
Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.
And adding power in the exact increment of our advertised machines?

No. Highly unlikely. Much more likely that this is, in fact, ActM.

Ken was here. He did not deny it. Nor did the operator of Eligius deny whether it was ActM.

At the end of the day, it is still just speculation, not evidence.

I could see the 'Ken secretly mining' theory, but I don't buy the 'element of surprise' argument for explaining why Ken wouldn't bolster credibility and sales by announcing such a positive piece of news. It just doesn't make sense to me.

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