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Author Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]  (Read 770358 times)
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drawingthesun
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January 09, 2014, 07:53:04 AM
 #7161

Who do you think is gonna be first, bitcoin at $10,000 or the ActM chips?

Bitcoin at $10,000, at least by that point I will have the same fiat amount as when I invested when bitcoin==$100.

Smiley

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ffssixtynine
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January 09, 2014, 10:09:15 AM
 #7162

I've just seen Ken's post. I've mostly stayed away from this thread due to the ridiculous trolling that was going on and the personal attacks, but I'm shocked by what I just read.

Ken, you and I strongly disagreed on the commercial side, lack of key skills on your management team, and a technical matter, to the point where my position was untenable. However, from what I remember you had apparently hired a really good engineering firm and you were always going to be in a good position as a mining company. The bitcoin price rise worked massively in your favour for both mining and hardware sales.

What happened to leave VMC in the current situation? Even mining with expensive low volume chips should have left you quids in by now. I don't understand why that hasn't happened.

Surely you owe everyone much more of an explanation than you've given. The NDA you have with eASIC doesn't cover absolutely everything you do as a business and shareholders need some proper facts on the problem, the remedy, and the schedule. You have always kept cards close to your chest but this is not the time to do it.

Even in my worst case forecast I had VMC down to have mass chip production and boards ready in Feb, with smaller units from late December or early January, but it sounds like that's far off.

Also, I seem to remember you stating that shipments had started but how can that have been true?

The finger cannot just be pointed at an external (unnamed yet experienced) engineering firm doing standard board design.

As always, I wish you all the best.

Re: eASIC - bothering them is not a good idea. They are an outsource company and if they start to get grief or hassled then it isn't a positive thing for shareholders.
drawingthesun
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January 09, 2014, 10:11:18 AM
 #7163

I've just seen Ken's post. I've mostly stayed away from this thread due to the ridiculous trolling that was going on and the personal attacks, but I'm shocked by what I just read.

Ken, you and I strongly disagreed on the commercial side, lack of key skills on your management team, and a technical matter, to the point where my position was untenable. However, from what I remember you had apparently hired a really good engineering firm and you were always going to be in a good position as a mining company. The bitcoin price rise worked massively in your favour for both mining and hardware sales.

What happened to leave VMC in the current situation? Even mining with expensive low volume chips should have left you quids in by now. I don't understand why that hasn't happened.

Surely you owe everyone much more of an explanation than you've given. The NDA you have with eASIC doesn't cover absolutely everything you do as a business and shareholders need some proper facts on the problem, the remedy, and the schedule. You have always kept cards close to your chest but this is not the time to do it.

Even in my worst case forecast I had VMC down to have mass chip production and boards ready in Feb, with smaller units from late December or early January, but it sounds like that's far off.

Also, I seem to remember you stating that shipments had started but how can that have been true?

The finger cannot just be pointed at an external (unnamed yet experienced) engineering firm doing standard board design.

As always, I wish you all the best.

Re: eASIC - bothering them is not a good idea. They are an outsource company and if they start to get grief or hassled then it isn't a positive thing for shareholders.

Damn.

JimmyJazz
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January 09, 2014, 10:28:35 AM
 #7164

Ken,

You should use that $6,000,000 or so in pre-order money and buy BTC now.
If you expect the price to hit $10,000 (I do to) we could have $60,000,000 to buy cost price miners for the farm.
If customers want their refund give it to them in bitcoin (they were buying miners anyway) or just cash out the required amount of $.

On another note you really should give us some sort of timeline, we have been behind you all they way.
wonker
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January 09, 2014, 11:02:08 AM
 #7165

Ken,

You should use that $6,000,000 or so in pre-order money and buy BTC now.
If you expect the price to hit $10,000 (I do to) we could have $60,000,000 to buy cost price miners for the farm.
If customers want their refund give it to them in bitcoin (they were buying miners anyway) or just cash out the required amount of $.

On another note you really should give us some sort of timeline, we have been behind you all they way.


Preorder money is not for speculations.
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January 09, 2014, 11:16:30 AM
 #7166

Ken,

You should use that $6,000,000 or so in pre-order money and buy BTC now.
If you expect the price to hit $10,000 (I do to) we could have $60,000,000 to buy cost price miners for the farm.
If customers want their refund give it to them in bitcoin (they were buying miners anyway) or just cash out the required amount of $.

On another note you really should give us some sort of timeline, we have been behind you all they way.


Preorder money is not for speculations.

You don't make the decisions.

This business will ultimately succeed or fail on what amount of hashing power can initially be enabled. The reinvestment will take care of the rest.

Not that Ken will read or listen to this  Wink
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January 09, 2014, 11:26:57 AM
 #7167

8 days into the year, telling us "This year" is just not good enough Ken. 

Hire someone part time to get Crypto-trade up and running.  I'm sure there's more than a few people here with the necessary skills that would be happy to help.
stenkross
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January 09, 2014, 11:32:03 AM
 #7168

8 days into the year, telling us "This year" is just not good enough Ken. 

Hire someone part time to get Crypto-trade up and running.  I'm sure there's more than a few people here with the necessary skills that would be happy to help.
Ken trusts no one but himself.
With that mindset we should start question if we are going to get any miners during 2014. Maybe June 2015 is more realistic?
JoTheKhan
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January 09, 2014, 11:43:42 AM
 #7169

When did we hire the engineering firm to help with the RTL code? What month, clearly we were doing test on w/e we had back in November so what happened between now and then? Did we wait till January to hire the team?
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January 09, 2014, 11:50:55 AM
 #7170

When did we hire the engineering firm to help with the RTL code? What month, clearly we were doing test on w/e we had back in November so what happened between now and then? Did we wait till January to hire the team?

Ken would love to answer, but sorry, NDA is stopping him.
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January 09, 2014, 12:04:18 PM
 #7171

Not that Ken will read or listen to this  Wink

It seems Ken responded to the concise list of questions I PM'ed him, so I guess we've got a green light on this. It appears I am a self appointed shareholder liaison... I can't (and don't want to) read every post on this thread so instead I've created a list on my wikipedia talk page and invite people to add their questions to the list. Please sign it (just type ~~~~ after you comment) - I'll PM it to him early next week (and he can check it quickly from time to time.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:VinceSamios#Questions_for_Ken

I'll try to keep up with the thread, but if anyone has a question or notices a question by someone else which isn't on the list, please add it to my wiki talk page.

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Mabsark
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January 09, 2014, 12:10:38 PM
 #7172

I've been telling you guys for months now that Ken is an incompetent liar. This became pretty damn obvious to me during the initial AMC tenders to ActM. It was obvious then that Ken couldn't even create a script to do them automatically, never mind anything more complicated. Expecting miners in January was pure delusion.

ActM supposedly have about $6 million worth of orders. Does anyone here think those people will be happy to wait for a few more months for their product? That is also pure delusion. Those pre-orders are getting refunded or ActM is getting sued into oblivion.

By the time ActM has miners, their chips will be about as good as AM's are now - pretty fucking useless.

Ken's total incompetence has destroyed any chance of ActM being profitable, I don't see it still existing by the end of the year, probably getting sued into oblivion by customers.

iSnow
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January 09, 2014, 12:11:33 PM
 #7173

For the next 2 weeks I am going to get on eASICS back.  I'll call every one of them to try to get a better understanding as to why my money has disappeared.  

Look VE, I think you'd do us all a favor if you did exactly that and instead stopped the silly bantering and trolling of other posters here.
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January 09, 2014, 12:14:02 PM
Last edit: January 09, 2014, 12:25:20 PM by minerpart
 #7174

Crypto-Trade/ACtM/Details/Products and Services:

'AMC through VMC expects to sale 1 Million of its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chips in 2014.  After AMC recoups its
NRE of ~1 Million dollars, then AMC expects to receive ~40 Million dollars in profits from its VMC subsidary payment in 2014.  The recouped NRE and profits from VMC will be used to make AMC the largest Bitcoin Mining Farm in the world......mwah-hahaha'



So in terms of defining success, maybe most people are thinking too short-term with this project?

Let's accept the chips have been delayed (by up to a month) and the boards adds another month, possibly for a total of 2 months delay (depending on when the new firm was hired and board design was begun). Now there are 12months in every year, and what people seem to be panicking about is time to market with difficulty ever rising. But you can only operate as a successful farm for an extended period if you have efficient boards and chips. It doesn't matter if you start mining in January 2014 or March 2014 - with energy hungry boards and chips you will only have a finite amount of time to mine as your equipment will become obsolete when energy cost outstrips FIAT returns from BTC. So it doesn't matter when you open your power hungry mine - a few months down the line your costs will outstrip mining profits and the farm will have to close.

Now the situation we have with ACtM can be seen as the opposite of that scenario.  Ken is (slowly) progressing towards a very power efficient board and chip combination with a very powerful chip which will have Intellihash optimization code applied to it. Unlike deployment of a power hungry setup, this combination is nimble, light on it's feet, and so will have a far extended lifetime to mine profitably.

So with these two scenarios you have either an early-to-open farm that has a finite lifetime or a late-to-open farm that is sustainable into the future as it's costs are adequately met by FIAT returns from mining.

Now the central point to that is: if the ACtM farm is able to grow month on month to either meet or exceed global hash increases in essence it does not matter if it opens Dec 2013 or March 2014. BTC could be being mined profitably by ACtM for the next 10 years. A 3 month delay represents a tiny percentage point of lost profit over that extended time. So the key thing in year 1 of this project is getting the fundamentals in place which will allow ACtM to operate a sustainable farm that is able to grow with rate difficulty and pay good divs to shareholders.

Now that's the farm side covered. I'd like shareholders to consider chip-only sales (which could be huge if the chip is priced well) and professional and home rig sales too.

In summary: time to market is not, as most people seem to think, the crucial aspect of creating success in the BTC mining industry. What is crucial is producing cost-efficient machines and being able to keep producing these machines through 2014 and into 2015/16/17 etc.
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January 09, 2014, 12:24:07 PM
 #7175

It could well be that we have nothing, nothing at all.

There is no evidence that would suggest that's the case.
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January 09, 2014, 12:31:59 PM
 #7176

It could well be that we have nothing, nothing at all.

There is no evidence that would suggest that's the case.

Is there any evidence suggesting the opposite?
VinceSamios
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January 09, 2014, 12:41:46 PM
 #7177


Our engineers are still designing our board. We had to change our engineering firm, and
learn a few lessons about hiring an engineer firm.  We don't have a date at this time.

Why is that? I can understand a goof-up on the part of the engineering company, but I fail to understand how a new company would not give timelines and milestones to a customer. I know I would not contract someone who cannot give me details on deliverables and dates.

Due to our inexperience with design, we have had a few set backs; however, we have hired
the most competent RTL design team to make sure that when we spin up our chip it will work.  They are
very competent at Low-Power and getting the most speed from the chip.
So did you ever receive chips from eASIC and those were faulty or did the design fall through before a production run? And WHEN did you bring a chip design team on board?


Active Mining is in one of the best positions to take advantage of the Bitcoin network.  Once we have our chips and boards in production this year we will be one of only two companies in the world which manufactures Bitcoin mining hardware and also mines. 
For that, we would have to have working chips and soon. If the bitcoin price goes to $10k, there will be big players entering the business with more resources and experience making ASICs. So, I cannot see how we are in one of the best positions without working hardware.

What I see in the future is bitcoin's exchange rate for USD going to over $10,000 in the next year. 
I find this frightening. For one I don't see such a valuation this or next year and it sounds as if you are banking the future of the company on such a rate.

It could well be that we have nothing, nothing at all.

There is no evidence that would suggest that's the case.
I am not a chip designer, but from what I read, it seems that the RTL code compiled to VHDL is basically the blueprint for the chip. If Ken needs to hire specialists to fix his RTL, it follows that we do not have a working chip design yet. This is compounded by the fact that we don't have a working PCB design either. So, this is plenty of  evidence for me.

Maybe someone with actual knowledge about chip design could chime in here.

Unfortunately, I have to say that skeptics like Mabsark seem to have hit the nail on the head - this enterprise is going nowhere but down.


Add questions to the list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:VinceSamios#Questions_for_Ken

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
minerpart
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January 09, 2014, 12:44:02 PM
 #7178

Vince you are clogging up the thread with that huge quote, quotes are best edited when that length. Cheers.
VinceSamios
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January 09, 2014, 12:50:52 PM
 #7179

Vince you are clogging up the thread with that huge quote, quotes are best edited when that length. Cheers.

Noted - although my clogging is far more palatable than the likes of VE, Crumbs, etc... I'm sure you'll agree :-)

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
JimmyJazz
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January 09, 2014, 12:54:32 PM
 #7180

Crypto-Trade/ACtM/Details/Products and Services:

'AMC through VMC expects to sale 1 Million of its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chips in 2014.  After AMC recoups its
NRE of ~1 Million dollars, then AMC expects to receive ~40 Million dollars in profits from its VMC subsidary payment in 2014.  The recouped NRE and profits from VMC will be used to make AMC the largest Bitcoin Mining Farm in the world......mwah-hahaha'



So in terms of defining success, maybe most people are thinking too short-term with this project?

Let's accept the chips have been delayed (by up to a month) and the boards adds another month, possibly for a total of 2 months delay (depending on when the new firm was hired and board design was begun). Now there are 12months in every year, and what people seem to be panicking about is time to market with difficulty ever rising. But you can only operate as a successful farm for an extended period if you have efficient boards and chips. It doesn't matter if you start mining in January 2014 or March 2014 - with energy hungry boards and chips you will only have a finite amount of time to mine as your equipment will become obsolete when energy cost outstrips FIAT returns from BTC. So it doesn't matter when you open your power hungry mine - a few months down the line your costs will outstrip mining profits and the farm will have to close.

Now the situation we have with ACtM can be seen as the opposite of that scenario.  Ken is (slowly) progressing towards a very power efficient board and chip combination with a very powerful chip which will have Intellihash optimization code applied to it. Unlike deployment of a power hungry setup, this combination is nimble, light on it's feet, and so will have a far extended lifetime to mine profitably.

So with these two scenarios you have either an early-to-open farm that has a finite lifetime or a late-to-open farm that is sustainable into the future as it's costs are adequately met by FIAT returns from mining.

Now the central point to that is: if the ACtM farm is able to grow month on month to either meet or exceed global hash increases in essence it does not matter if it opens Dec 2013 or March 2014. BTC could be being mined profitably by ACtM for the next 10 years. A 3 month delay represents a tiny percentage point of lost profit over that extended time. So the key thing in year 1 of this project is getting the fundamentals in place which will allow ACtM to operate a sustainable farm that is able to grow with rate difficulty and pay good divs to shareholders.

Now that's the farm side covered. I'd like shareholders to consider chip-only sales (which could be huge if the chip is priced well) and professional and home rig sales too.

In summary: time to market is not, as most people seem to think, the crucial aspect of creating success in the BTC mining industry. What is crucial is producing cost-efficient machines and being able to keep producing these machines through 2014 and into 2015/16/17 etc.

Time is of the most importance in regards to the small budget we have to purchase our own miners (which will fall as people start asking for refunds now).
As times goes by difficulty goes up and it costs us more money to take any portion of the market.

Ken MUST now have a discussion with shareholders, be it on here or IRC. We are entitled to know what is going on especially with such a disastrous announcement.

I look forwards to Bargraphics report - kind of.
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