[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Flashman]

Oh I strawmanned a strawman that you are now attempting to strawman to look intelligent, how silly of me.

I gain nothing by destroying you, you have no credibility here, no respect, I'll look like a skinhead beating up a hobo.

[1713973506]

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[1713973506]

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[Mabsark]

If it takes 4 months to get miners, with current funds we could pull 1% network hashrate day 1.... 4 months is enough to start from scratch.... I still rate the possibility of having miners within 4 months at about 50% but the return on investment potential makes the risk worth it.

Now grow the fuck up and stop speculating about everything you insecure bloody teenagers.

Can you explain how you want to make profit when VMC has miners in 4 months only? Even with the best miner VMC is selling now and you start mining on february the first... you will not even double your investment in 6 months. Starting to mine in march the first means no profit at all. And you speak about 4 months from now? I wonder what profit margin you see on the price on VMC-Miners. I think you are too optimistic. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

And please stop naming sceptics. I lost way more bitcoins on mining companies than i would like to admit. Being sensitive to problems is nothing bad. Bad is only when people are so fearful that they crush the small hope to make something a success still by doing something stupid.

It doesn't matter when VMC/ActM has miners - as one of only two miner/spade shops VMC/ActM will be able to grow and produce profit indefinitely. If we start mining in Feb we'll have 10% network hash-rate pretty rapidly. We've got enough cash to produce 2.8PH of mining hardware...

The only way network hash rate and difficulty can increase to the 160 billion difficulty required to make VMC hardware unprofitable to run, is if the price of BTC goes up, and if it does then VMC hardware remains profitable. The current BTC price supports up to around 9EH/s of hardware mining profitably - that would require about $10billion of investment... Either its not going to happen, or VMC is going to profit from it happening. Or the perfect storm, ActM mines, VMC sells hardware, BTC Price goes up....

Don't get me wrong, I wish Ken would hurry up and hash already, but if bitcoin goes well, and bitcoin mining goes well (hell, even if it doesn't) then ActM will go well.

Of course it matters when ActM's miners become available. The later they're ready, the smaller the share of the network they'll capture and the less BTC they'll mine. It also means less sales and reduced profit on each sale due to being weak compared to the competition. It means that most share holders will not recover the cost they paid for their shares.

Also, just because ActM can make their own chips, that doesn't mean they can make as many as they want. They have to book time at the fab, then it takes a certain amount of time to actually produce the batch of wafers, turn those wafers into chips, put the chips on a card and put the cards in a system. It also costs money. What you see is that companies produce a batch of miners then have to wait a while before they get more chips to produce more miners. Each batch of wafers has to do them till the next batch arrives. That means that companies are restricted to bringing online x amount of hashing power, where x depends of the hashing speed and number of working chips in the batch.

ActM will not be able to bring enough hashing power online to maintain their network share and because of that, it will not be able to pay out 0.0025 BTC to 10 million shares. People will be lucky to get 0.001 BTC per share.

[RoadStress]

If it takes 4 months to get miners, with current funds we could pull 1% network hashrate day 1.... 4 months is enough to start from scratch.... I still rate the possibility of having miners within 4 months at about 50% but the return on investment potential makes the risk worth it.

Now grow the fuck up and stop speculating about everything you insecure bloody teenagers.

Can you explain how you want to make profit when VMC has miners in 4 months only? Even with the best miner VMC is selling now and you start mining on february the first... you will not even double your investment in 6 months. Starting to mine in march the first means no profit at all. And you speak about 4 months from now? I wonder what profit margin you see on the price on VMC-Miners. I think you are too optimistic. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

And please stop naming sceptics. I lost way more bitcoins on mining companies than i would like to admit. Being sensitive to problems is nothing bad. Bad is only when people are so fearful that they crush the small hope to make something a success still by doing something stupid.

It doesn't matter when VMC/ActM has miners - as one of only two miner/spade shops VMC/ActM will be able to grow and produce profit indefinitely. If we start mining in Feb we'll have 10% network hash-rate pretty rapidly. We've got enough cash to produce 2.8PH of mining hardware...

The only way network hash rate and difficulty can increase to the 160 billion difficulty required to make VMC hardware unprofitable to run, is if the price of BTC goes up, and if it does then VMC hardware remains profitable. The current BTC price supports up to around 9EH/s of hardware mining profitably - that would require about $10billion of investment... Either its not going to happen, or VMC is going to profit from it happening. Or the perfect storm, ActM mines, VMC sells hardware, BTC Price goes up....

Don't get me wrong, I wish Ken would hurry up and hash already, but if bitcoin goes well, and bitcoin mining goes well (hell, even if it doesn't) then ActM will go well.

Oh man...how about a little more thinking? Avalon team had enough cash on hands to build a whole shit of hashrate, ASICMiner had a tone shit of money to raise a lot of hashrate(10k$ for 1TH?). Don't fool yourself with dreams. Virtually there were a lot more ventures that were in that position before ActM with an actual chip. This venture has nothing up to this date. Wake up!

Edit: 160 billion difficulty before VMC hardware unprofitable to run? That's a funny one! What power consumption  are you using?

[wasubii]

If it takes 4 months to get miners, with current funds we could pull 1% network hashrate day 1.... 4 months is enough to start from scratch.... I still rate the possibility of having miners within 4 months at about 50% but the return on investment potential makes the risk worth it.

Now grow the fuck up and stop speculating about everything you insecure bloody teenagers.

Can you explain how you want to make profit when VMC has miners in 4 months only? Even with the best miner VMC is selling now and you start mining on february the first... you will not even double your investment in 6 months. Starting to mine in march the first means no profit at all. And you speak about 4 months from now? I wonder what profit margin you see on the price on VMC-Miners. I think you are too optimistic. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

And please stop naming sceptics. I lost way more bitcoins on mining companies than i would like to admit. Being sensitive to problems is nothing bad. Bad is only when people are so fearful that they crush the small hope to make something a success still by doing something stupid.

It doesn't matter when VMC/ActM has miners - as one of only two miner/spade shops VMC/ActM will be able to grow and produce profit indefinitely. If we start mining in Feb we'll have 10% network hash-rate pretty rapidly. We've got enough cash to produce 2.8PH of mining hardware...

The only way network hash rate and difficulty can increase to the 160 billion difficulty required to make VMC hardware unprofitable to run, is if the price of BTC goes up, and if it does then VMC hardware remains profitable. The current BTC price supports up to around 9EH/s of hardware mining profitably - that would require about $10billion of investment... Either its not going to happen, or VMC is going to profit from it happening. Or the perfect storm, ActM mines, VMC sells hardware, BTC Price goes up....

Don't get me wrong, I wish Ken would hurry up and hash already, but if bitcoin goes well, and bitcoin mining goes well (hell, even if it doesn't) then ActM will go well.

Oh man...how about a little more thinking? Avalon team had enough cash on hands to build a whole shit of hashrate, ASICMiner had a tone shit of money to raise a lot of hashrate(10k$ for 1TH?). Don't fool yourself with dreams. Virtually there were a lot more ventures that were in that position before ActM with an actual chip. This venture has nothing up to this date. Wake up!

Edit: 160 billion difficulty before VMC hardware unprofitable to run? That's a funny one! What power consumption  are you using?

+1 finally a post with some fucking realism

Also - on the 160bn difficulty - does this include data centre space renting costs, maintenance, support etc? I doubt it

[knybe]

FYI: New Difficulty! 26% jump! 1,789,546,951

next estimated diffiulty is: 2281294530.34770063

if we don't get hashing soon, like soon, like THIS MONTH… (insert F.U.D.)

[wasubii]

FYI: New Difficulty! 26% jump! 1,789,546,951

next estimated diffiulty is: 2281294530.34770063

if we don't get hashing soon, like soon, like THIS MONTH… (insert F.U.D.)

Let it settle - the estimate is always less accurate just after an adjustment because of the low sample size of blocks being measured.

In a few days the estimated next difficulty will be more accurate (and hopefully not as disastrously high as the prediction above)

[stenkross]

Who was it that was suppose to fly out to AMC and visit Ken for a few days?  Anyone know when that was suppose to happen?

I am,

It will be next week and I'll report what I can as soon as I can.

Is there any point in visiting AMC?
I mean, it's not very likely that we'll see any chips or boards for a few weeks/months/years...

[gogxmagog]

Who was it that was suppose to fly out to AMC and visit Ken for a few days?  Anyone know when that was suppose to happen?

I am,

It will be next week and I'll report what I can as soon as I can.

Is there any point in visiting AMC?
I mean, it's not very likely that we'll see any chips or boards for a few weeks/months/years...

The American Mid-West is lovely this time of year.

[drawingthesun]

People will be lucky to get 0.001 BTC per share.

I would be over the moon to get 0.0006 per share in total, 0.001 would be a dream for me.

[Thumper650]

Posting this for everyone who claims Ken doesn't delete posts, and those asking just what type of posts get deleted.  Crossposted to the unmoderated thread.
This is considered trolling, Flashman's pissy reply gets to stay

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

No, d00d, I do.  Don't bullshit people if you don't like being called on it.  Or, at least, get better at bullshitting.

Oh if you insist...

#1 indication of cluelessness: Doesn't realise there's a difference between the process size of the chip and the positioning of chips on the boards. "Derp, joo can't place duh 28nm chips like der 130nm chips because dose are obsolescent"

#2 indication of cluelessness: Doesn't realise there's a difference between the thermal problems of a ~200W chip and a ~400W chip "Derp, KNC can use a air cooled heatsink on a ~200W Chip so doing it with der 400W must be real easy too"

#3 indication of cluelessness: Doesn't realise that heat will have to be distributed and spread 3 dimensionally out of a 2 dimensional area, and the difference between 1 square inch and 4 half inch squares is that they basically lose half their conduction path each when butted together. "Derp, that should oughta be okay, I mount my CPU sinks with der CPU right in one corner because dey work just as well like dat"

Stop fighting strawmen, and address what I have actually said.
I gave you line numbers to make it easier.  If you disagree with any of my points, feel free to refute them.

#1. Boards like Avalon clones are already at the edge of obsolescence.
#2. KnC has no trouble with conventional, "cheap, simple, reliable and well characterized thermal solutions," lol.
#3. While water cooling might have been bleeding edge in the 90s, it's consumer-level commonplace today.
#4. Ken never built any miners, including Avalon clones.  The fact that he was *going* to build them gives him exactly zero experience with any design, obsolescent or otherwise.
#5. It pays to know the basics about your subject before bringing up "watts per meter" and brandishing absurdities like "100W out of four half inch squares."

In the meantime, I'll explain where you went wrong with your list:

#1 - I have not mentioned node size.  I pointed out that the current trend is high GH/sec, high power ASICS.  By at least an order of magnitude more powerful than Ken's (if Ken actually *had* chips, which he doesn't).  KnC first generation, soon to be outmoded by their second generation.  HashFast.  Cointerra.  BFL.

#2. - 400W chips are not "contiguous squares," that's silly.  They are a set of dies set on a single substrate.  KNC.  HashFast.  Please, read up on this, or, at least, look at the pictures.  I'll put them right here:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/screenshots.angel.co/54/271640/677b9dae0811730975bf66e26843071e-thumb_jpg.jpg

HashFast, see the four dies?

https://i.imgur.com/Ji9zvNQ.jpg

KNC and no, it's not one die under that lid

#3. See above, and forget about 3D - you're confused.  The wafer doesn't dissipate much heat through its edges, that's why they're called "wafers" and not, oh.. "blocks."  Most of the heat is dissipated through just *one* of the surfaces, the one the heatsink sits on.

Keep trying though.

[VinceSamios]

Ken is meeting with eASIC this week... Anyone in San Jose, maybe you can go get coffee...

[antcastle]

Ken is meeting with eASIC this week... Anyone in San Jose, maybe you can go get coffee...

Or grab a few drinks and... Ohshi

[zumzero]

crumbs, this is a self moderated thread so of course Ken is going to delete posts when someone ups pictures promoting competitors hardware as a means to fud the company, so why not take your own advice and stick to your own unmoderated thread?  Then again it's probably not as much fun circling jerking with you fellow trolls with fewer people to wind up all day long.

There are a lot of strong opinions here and yet they can't all be right.  Some will try to back them up with cold hard facts, but the reality is there are so many unknowns that posting numbers is purely speculative at this stage and can't be used to justify either a win or lose outcome.  The scaremongers would have you believe that the rise in difficulty only applies to ActM.  But the difficulty factor is a red herring due to the fact that it has the same equal effect on all miners.  It's more important that ActM is able to take a percentage of the network (no matter how small) and, crucially, employ a business model which allows for the increase or maintenance of that percentage while profiting from chip and miner sales.  I think where a lot of contributors to this thread are going wrong is they have a blinkered view and can't see beyond the next few months. This industry is in it's infancy and when you consider that we are one of only two companies positioned as we are, then it becomes easier to understand that provided Ken is able to build working miners that shareholders will enjoy success.

[JimmyJazz]

Is there any companys developing a better all round chip? I heard KNC are looking to ship in the summer and maybe ASICminer?

[Puppet]

Something like $6mil in capital left after fulfilling customers orders... $2/gh... something like that. $2/gh is fairly conservative for a manufacturer.

$2/GH is very high by my estimate for pure asics. But dont forget these are not pure asics, they are structured asics. They are build on prefabricated wafers which carry a significant price premium, they are considerably less size efficient (and usually, less power efficient). Especially in smaller volumes, these chips may cost 10x more per GH than HF/KnC/CT/..   Now 10x their marginal asic production cost probably still means a profitable chip today, but Im not sure how long that will last.

eASIC does have a path towards pure asics, but expect the NRE for that to be similar as any from scratch asic development (if nothing else, a full mask set price is the same either way), and lead time will also be several months.

[VinceSamios]

Is there any companys developing a better all round chip? I heard KNC are looking to ship in the summer and maybe ASICminer?

We don't know yet because we don't know the stats of ActM Chips - there can be a massive variance in performance on the same node size. For example bitfury is 55nm at about 0.6w/gh, however Avalon v2 is also 55nm at about 2.5w/gh (or 1.5w in "low power" mode) - a factor of 2-4 x difference in power consumption.

I believe KNC second gen is supposed to be 20nm - this could take a while and will be a massive challenge for them.

[VinceSamios]

Something like $6mil in capital left after fulfilling customers orders... $2/gh... something like that. $2/gh is fairly conservative for a manufacturer.

$2/GH is very high by my estimate for pure asics. But dont forget these are not pure asics, they are structured asics. They are build on prefabricated wafers which carry a significant price premium, they are considerably less size efficient (and usually, less power efficient). Especially in smaller volumes, these chips may cost 10x more per GH than HF/KnC/CT/..

Although surely the prefabricated wafers could have major cost advantages because those can be mass produced? Doubled edged sword.

[zumzero]

Rather than all this tit for tat useless bickering (edit: not directed at the last few posts), I propose a discussion which we can all benefit from.  Would anyone like to take a stab at covering the bigger picture of the effect of a rise in BTC value on ActM's business model?

It seems like only yesterday that the community was crying 'mining is dead' and calculator websites would churn out numbers showing that almost all hardware would never ROI.  Then overnight BTC value soared, a new confidence was found and people started switching back on their GPU farms which they thought had become obsolete.

[wosinddiehirsche]

is there a way to claim already the bitfunder active mining shares?

[Puppet]

Although surely the prefabricated wafers could have major cost advantages because those can be mass produced? Doubled edged sword.

That would be true if you would use most of the die estate. But these wafers contain various generic circuits that can be used for all kinds of applications, and therefore are anything but optimal for any particular application. Its a halfway solution between FGPA and ASIC. THere is also the tooling cost, since these wafers are produced in two phases, most of the layers for the generic easic nextreme process, and then later one application specific layer is etched. Fabs will charge you a pretty penny for that, even if eASIC wouldnt.

Then there is the ebeam thing; chips produced through ebeam will be a whole lot more expensive, because its a time consuming operation using very expensive equipment. I figure that will only apply to the first batch though, maybe as few as one single wafer to see if the chip works, and to allow PCB development/debugging.