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Author Topic: What will be the next currency?  (Read 6283 times)
HonestAbe
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July 18, 2011, 04:15:13 AM
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3 years ago bitcoin did not exist.  What about three years from now?  What will the next one be?  Has it already been born?
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July 18, 2011, 04:32:31 AM
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3 years ago bitcoin did not exist.  What about three years from now?  What will the next one be?  Has it already been born?

The next new currency is likely to be the new Drachma, when Greece gets kicked out of the Euro.  We're likely to see new pesetas and new liras soon too :-)

Do not send bitcoins to me: 16b8s7pBJ9rUmsExNW25qD5VUqVqRPZuXu
100% solar powered bitcoin generation
imperi
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July 18, 2011, 06:42:01 AM
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Sea shells.
phatsphere
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July 18, 2011, 07:39:17 PM
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north & south sudan need one, urgently.
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July 18, 2011, 08:58:21 PM
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.
marcus_of_augustus
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July 19, 2011, 02:10:45 AM
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

If bitcoin was not paying for itself, in terms of the services it is providing, value information transfers, storage, etc, then it would not be profitable.

Money costs. (Gold digging, fiat confidence defending, etc)

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July 19, 2011, 03:43:27 AM
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

Decentralization is very important. Without it Bitcoin would not had even taken off.
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July 19, 2011, 04:23:37 AM
 #8

Here are a few possibilities:
- BitcoinMG (for MtGox crowd)
- BitcoinTH (for TradeHill crowd)
- ... (fill in the blank)

The best part is that Bitcoin will power them all.

Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
deuxmill
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July 20, 2011, 11:39:11 AM
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Non limited Bitcoin  Grin
zby
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July 20, 2011, 04:19:00 PM
 #10

I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

If bitcoin was not paying for itself, in terms of the services it is providing, value information transfers, storage, etc, then it would not be profitable.

Money costs. (Gold digging, fiat confidence defending, etc)
I am pretty sure that bitcoin is not paying for itself and it will not for a very long time.  Silk Road transactions cannot support even the half a million dollars  a month electricity bill (a very rough estimate - but the only one so far - see http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28780.0) - what else there is to pay that bill?  And this is now - what will be the cost of it when the security of the system will be much more important?
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July 20, 2011, 04:49:21 PM
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

If bitcoin was not paying for itself, in terms of the services it is providing, value information transfers, storage, etc, then it would not be profitable.

Money costs. (Gold digging, fiat confidence defending, etc)
I am pretty sure that bitcoin is not paying for itself and it will not for a very long time.  Silk Road transactions cannot support even the half a million dollars  a month electricity bill (a very rough estimate - but the only one so far - see http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28780.0) - what else there is to pay that bill?  And this is now - what will be the cost of it when the security of the system will be much more important?

The 'electricity bill' is voluntary. It's almost like short-circuiting a wall socket. Bitcoin would run fine on a couple dozen mining machines. We don't need 20 - 30k, except to prevent theoretical attacks on the block chain.
zby
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July 20, 2011, 05:51:49 PM
 #12

The 'electricity bill' is voluntary. It's almost like short-circuiting a wall socket. Bitcoin would run fine on a couple dozen mining machines. We don't need 20 - 30k, except to prevent theoretical attacks on the block chain.
Have you just said that security of the bitcoin system is optional?
imperi
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July 20, 2011, 05:56:44 PM
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The 'electricity bill' is voluntary. It's almost like short-circuiting a wall socket. Bitcoin would run fine on a couple dozen mining machines. We don't need 20 - 30k, except to prevent theoretical attacks on the block chain.
Have you just said that security of the bitcoin system is optional?

It might be. If it is actually necessary, then the cost scales with the size of the Bitcoin economy.
GideonGono
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July 21, 2011, 09:40:36 AM
 #14

I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

If bitcoin was not paying for itself, in terms of the services it is providing, value information transfers, storage, etc, then it would not be profitable.

Money costs. (Gold digging, fiat confidence defending, etc)
I am pretty sure that bitcoin is not paying for itself and it will not for a very long time.  Silk Road transactions cannot support even the half a million dollars  a month electricity bill (a very rough estimate - but the only one so far - see http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28780.0) - what else there is to pay that bill?  And this is now - what will be the cost of it when the security of the system will be much more important?


Converted to a common denominator (Radeon 6990) the total hash rate equals about 28,000 of those GPUs.

In that scenario the total power usage of the entire network is 10,500,000 watts at any given moment

(There are very many diverse GPUs, CPUs and maybe even some ASICS the network too so that's just a very rough estimate)
Thanks!  Continuing this rough estimate - if we take the price of MegaWattHour to be about $100 (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) - that means about $1000 per hour.

I don't get it. You say in your own post that the cost is about $1,000/hr. But at the same time there are 300BTC produced every hour, with a current market value of $4109.88. Since the price is stable right now (demand = supply) seems like there is profit to me. Infact it should be profitable right down to a price of $3.33

jtimon
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July 21, 2011, 05:01:53 PM
 #15

I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful.  This probably cannot be fully decentralized.  Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.

Have you heard about Ripple, the generalization of LETS?
I wouldn't say that Ripple is a currency because it uses many denominations and each user issues its own currency, but I would say is money. Of course that depends on your definition of money. The USD and BTC aren't money for some people.

Anyway, when distributed Ripple is implemented, it will be more decentralized than bitcoin (the block chain is an "issuing center" in some sense) and is cheaper (operational costs) than bitcoin if costs are your concern.
I don't think bitcoin is proportionally more expensive than gold or the USD though.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
zby
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July 22, 2011, 08:14:41 PM
 #16

I have been following Ripple for quite some time before bitcoin - I like the concept, but it might be a bit too complex for a mass adoption.

As to the cost of the bitcoin system - the computing power used for hashing will need to grow with the growth of the value stored in the system.  The question is what are the coefficients, but I am rather pessimistic with this because it is a kind of arms race situation.  

This is very different from the situation with gold and the role of the cost of digging new gold.
Aristotle
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July 23, 2011, 01:14:34 AM
 #17

Bancor?

Brother, can you spare a Bitcoin? 18Xe5KqJhmgw5cTjosek2YwnqzG6tDWKNU
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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July 23, 2011, 11:14:27 AM
 #18

Bancor?
Bitcoin could become the incentive for a push to manufacture low cost solar panels. Money talks.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
jtimon
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July 23, 2011, 06:11:51 PM
 #19

Bancor?
Bitcoin could become the incentive for a push to manufacture low cost solar panels. Money talks.

What solar panels have to do with the IMF ?

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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July 23, 2011, 07:00:20 PM
 #20

Bancor?
Bitcoin could become the incentive for a push to manufacture low cost solar panels. Money talks.

What solar panels have to do with the IMF ?

Besides their both having nothing to do with Bancor? Actually, I hit quote instead of reply. I knew about SDRs, but never heard of Bancor. Bancor is a theoretical fiat currency, right?  So how can it be better than any other peso?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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