[Poll] A Dead Cat?

[alyssa85]

It seems to me that someone has decided to profit when the price approached 12 000$,taking into account the opportunity to buy under 6000$ level recently -100% profit looks very good.

Or it could be nervous people relieved that it hit $11,500 and who cashed out thankful they'd got out with a small profitl. We saw this in early 2017, when bitcoin regained £1,000 and the bagholders from 2014 thankfully cashed out.

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[STT]

What do you think?  Are we headed lower and are only seeing a temporary “Dead Cat Bounce” or are we headed higher?

No I think its substantially different from a dead cat type bounce.    Those kind of buys fit into people who short Bitcoin and then need to buy it back, creating a short term buying trend.     This is more established then just that limited amount, there is ongoing demand it would seem.   For example fees came down some which helps maintain usage and underlying demand in market

[Herbert2020]

Is the rally from the $6,000 low a dead cat bounce?

to be honest this is a very weird question to ask! and i had to double check the date of the topic because if you asked it back when price went up from $5900-$6000 to $7000-$8000 then you could have been on to something.

but now it is up from that price to $11000 which is >80% increase. you need a super cat to make that kind of bounce when dead!

[TERA2]

Theres always a super cat after the big crash. Sometimes the cat is dead. Sometimes it's just napping.

[tdrinker]

We are seeing a surge in numbers in terms of long term holders, which is completely different to 2013's speculative bubble.

We are slowly transitioning and will continue to do so in to a scenario where bitcoin is far more dispersed. I know that people speak of whales all the time and how they are accumulating but as the value of BTC continues to grow the spread of bitcoin will only increase. Many people are still new to bitcoin and that means they're much more easily influenced by fear and for a while we might see such large dips and volatility as a more frequent thing.

It seems to me that someone has decided to profit when the price approached 12 000$,taking into account the opportunity to buy under 6000$ level recently -100% profit looks very good.

Or it could be nervous people relieved that it hit $11,500 and who cashed out thankful they'd got out with a small profitl. We saw this in early 2017, when bitcoin regained £1,000 and the bagholders from 2014 thankfully cashed out.

Are these in essence not the same, they're profit taking just in different forms. Either way they end up being people who are willing and happy to sell and they need to be replaced by people willing to buy up at a price which is %70-%100% higher than just a couple of weeks ago.

[tokeweed]

It's def a DCB.  You could already see it a mile away, and BTC is due.  Check the chart from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2017...   After a certain trend up reversed, you would think that it was all over and start going down, only to see it get back up again and reach new highs.

Not this time...  BTC needs some rest too.  Lol.

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

[tdrinker]

It's def a DCB. 

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

Isn't this very contradictory, if you believe it is a dead cat bounce then by definition should you not expect that it will continue to fall and reach new lows?

[tokeweed]

It's def a DCB. 

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

Isn't this very contradictory, if you believe it is a dead cat bounce then by definition should you not expect that it will continue to fall and reach new lows?

Wups...  Yup you're right.  My bad.  What I meant was this could be a temporary recovery and BTC is gonna down soon, but not lower than the recent low.  I think it's gonna go sideways for a while, and who knows where it could go next.  If it goes further down, then it's a DCB.  If not, then yay! 

[Tzupy]

What do you think?  Are we headed lower and are only seeing a temporary “Dead Cat Bounce” or are we headed higher?

It depends where the market will find support over the next days. If it stays above 9200$, then a third leg up becomes probable and later a higher low (than 6000$), with bullish implications.

Market still testing support, but some indicators are worsening. Nothing yet points to a lower low than ~6k$ on the Feb 6th.
So far the cat doesn't look dead, it's more like a cat in ICU (intensive care unit).

[tdrinker]

It's def a DCB. 

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

Isn't this very contradictory, if you believe it is a dead cat bounce then by definition should you not expect that it will continue to fall and reach new lows?

Wups...  Yup you're right.  My bad.  What I meant was this could be a temporary recovery and BTC is gonna down soon, but not lower than the recent low.  I think it's gonna go sideways for a while, and who knows where it could go next.  If it goes further down, then it's a DCB.  If not, then yay! 

Fair, so something along the lines of 'it could be, could not be'  I think that's pretty much how it should be, no one knows either way. I do think that the price has found some ground around 9500. Let's see if it can hold for another day or so.

[buwaytress]

Cat's not dead. Probably still got all nine lives left in fact. For Bitcoin to start losing one of those lives, we'd need to see it seriously threaten prices of over a year ago - and that's below $1.5k. No doubt there'll be people believing this could still happen, but it'll be a stretch of imagination to see in in 2018. Crystal ball doesn't seem to allow looking beyond the horizon, but there's got to be a lot of things that need to happen for the cat to get skinned the first time.

What'll it be? Alts finally gaining supremacy? That won't be until two or three years when all these utility tokens MAYBE see some serious adoption and use beyond the confines of trading. Countries simply cracking down? Not in the current climate of governments warming up to blockchain and crypto, eager to forget the hurt of the last financial crisis.

[tokeweed]

It's def a DCB.  

But I don't think it's gonna reach new lows.

Isn't this very contradictory, if you believe it is a dead cat bounce then by definition should you not expect that it will continue to fall and reach new lows?

Wups...  Yup you're right.  My bad.  What I meant was this could be a temporary recovery and BTC is gonna down soon, but not lower than the recent low.  I think it's gonna go sideways for a while, and who knows where it could go next.  If it goes further down, then it's a DCB.  If not, then yay!  

Fair, so something along the lines of 'it could be, could not be'   I think that's pretty much how it should be, no one knows either way. I do think that the price has found some ground around 9500. Let's see if it can hold for another day or so.

Yup.  But I wouldn't hold my breath.  Hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I guess...  But as far as I'm concerned 1 BTC = 1 BTC.  Sure I check BTC/USD, but never for the purpose of trading.  I haven't converted my core holdings for trading BTC - fiat - BTC in a while, it's BTC - alts - back to BTC as my base.

[STT]

Your biggest clue on this failed bounce is to observe the other side to prices which is the dollar mostly.    If we see US Dollar strength then it clips the prices of many commodities especially those used as proxy currency such as bitcoin.

The ongoing effect is Dollar weakness, Bitcoin itself may pullback and suffer lack of interest by itself but for a proper sell off it requires Dollars to start a trend of rising.

Recent news of a very large USA government spending deficit does not create an atmosphere for dollar strength at this time.      I only expect much weaker Bitcoin pricing if it suffers great competition from a range of alternatives like other crypto and assets such as gold