BTC in slow free fall?

[rainyn]

I've been keeping records of various statistics, including the current value of the BTC and have noticed it steadily declining over the last few weeks.  I don't think I've seen it go up once.  Does anyone know what's going on?  The highest value I have for the BTC is from when I began keeping records, on 6/16/11.  Then it was 16.7 USD/BTC.  Today, 12.52

[1713465012]

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[Oldminer]

I dont see anything good here..

This is a snapshot from the last 24 hours and there's no new money expected into the market for at least a few more hours..

[koin]

reminds me of the death march mid-february to early april: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-02-01zeg2011-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

so many people were so smart, they sold at $0.80 or so and then smiled confidently as it dipped into the $0.50s.

i wonder how many are smiling today.

[BTCHosting]

It's the summer, price will slowly go down until mid september. Then, it will start to massively grow again.


I bet 1 BTC that there is a strong statistical correlation between Bitcoin Price and Worldwide traffic in Terabytes.

[Xephan]

I've been keeping records of various statistics, including the current value of the BTC and have noticed it steadily declining over the last few weeks.  I don't think I've seen it go up once.  Does anyone know what's going on?  The highest value I have for the BTC is from when I began keeping records, on 6/16/11.  Then it was 16.7 USD/BTC.  Today, 12.52

Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.

[jwzguy]

Is "slow free fall" like a "slow crash" ?

[FractalUniverse]

slow free fall?

more like temporary dip and buying opportunity 

[casascius]

I think the price will continue to slowly fall as long as there are early adopters willing to sell.

Forget terabytes of internet traffic.  A real useful metric would be one that Theymos regularly calculates: number of unspent generations.  (or in other words, number of coins that have been mined but have never participated in any transaction, as determined by scanning the blockchain).  Last time I asked him, that figure was 2.4 million BTC, with over 3/4 of those coins being before block 70000 (in other words, mined before July 2010).

[bitcon]

I think the price will continue to slowly fall as long as there are early adopters willing to sell.

Forget terabytes of internet traffic.  A real useful metric would be one that Theymos regularly calculates: number of unspent generations.  (or in other words, number of coins that have been mined but have never participated in any transaction, as determined by scanning the blockchain).  Last time I asked him, that figure was 2.4 million BTC, with over 3/4 of those coins being before block 70000 (in other words, mined before July 2010).

in other words early adopters have enough bitcoins mined to sell at $10 and still be set for life.........

[BTCHosting]

I think the price will continue to slowly fall as long as there are early adopters willing to sell.

Forget terabytes of internet traffic.  A real useful metric would be one that Theymos regularly calculates: number of unspent generations.  (or in other words, number of coins that have been mined but have never participated in any transaction, as determined by scanning the blockchain).  Last time I asked him, that figure was 2.4 million BTC, with over 3/4 of those coins being before block 70000 (in other words, mined before July 2010).

Number of unspent generation is a very good indicator, but I think we should look at the market from a different perspective: Bitcoin is still expanding. More and more people use it.

Now most of the transactions come from Bitcoin speculation. In the future, more and more of these transactions will be originated by merchants, thus driving the value up. And IF value constantly goes up, people will be more willing to hold bitcoins.

In synthesis, as long as new adopters will put liquidity in the market by buying small bitcoin ammounts, the price should go up. Now we have less people on the internet, thus less people able to spend. Let's speak again about this around december...

[eraziel]

No big deal, it'll rally at some point, not like you depend on the money you get from selling your BTC to survive anyways, right?

[OhSoStrong]

No big deal, it'll rally at some point, not like you depend on the money you get from selling your BTC to survive anyways, right?

exactly! hold to win 

[TheBitMan]

oh boy..better stock up on them while you can! 

(Subliminal messaging because I own a pyramid site) 

[Tiniebras]

A lot of very bullish commentary here unsuprisingly as we are all Bitcoin lovers
I however would argue that Bitcoins recent blaze of publicity starting from its parity with the dollar, all the way up to the MTGox fiasco has bought a lot of attention and new users which have pushed value upwards. As the both the spectacular and the distasters die down, I would expect a downwards trend as some adopters drift away.

[BTCHosting]

A lot of very bullish commentary here unsuprisingly as we are all Bitcoin lovers
I however would argue that Bitcoins recent blaze of publicity starting from its parity with the dollar, all the way up to the MTGox fiasco has bought a lot of attention and new users which have pushed value upwards. As the both the spectacular and the distasters die down, I would expect a downwards trend as some adopters drift away.

So you don't think that more people will start to use Bitcoins?

[BTCHosting]

Bitcoin price just made a jump up.....

[Jardeath]

I was hoping it would sit around $15, but then it just kept slowly dropping over time - until today's jump.

[CaptainDDL]

I was going to invest a bit of money in bitcoin with the price falling the way it was, naturally the price would have to jump before the money cleared via Dwolla. 

[bitcon]

just keep it on standby, it will come back down again..  be patient.

[3dog]

Prices have been bouncing off the 9$ mark repeatedly. Would not be surprised if it hovered around here until September, like most people stated.