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Author Topic: [Answered]Can someone tell me the most accurate Difficulty increase/Month in %?  (Read 3523 times)
Netnox
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September 23, 2013, 07:35:20 PM
 #1

I see some enter 50%, some 60&, some 80% or even lower than 50%

Does anyone know which % the most accurate difficulty increase might be? I don't know how to calculate this.

Thanks

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BitBlitz
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September 23, 2013, 07:37:31 PM
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"Exact difficulty increase"?
Nope. Sorry.  The crystal ball is in the shop...

I see the value of Bitcoin, so I don't worry about the price...
Netnox
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September 23, 2013, 08:05:12 PM
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So which number is the most accurate to look at? Anyone who calculated it? I need to know this to make the most accurate mining profit.

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September 24, 2013, 03:23:06 AM
 #4

I see some enter 50%, some 60&, some 80% or even lower than 50%

Does anyone know which % the most accurate difficulty increase might be? I don't know how to calculate this.

Thanks

You can try using the yearly average.

Here is a breakdown at 20% every 12 day increase. However I would consider at least 30% 10.8 day increase to be the average going forward.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

more details found here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273264.msg3156061#msg3156061
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September 24, 2013, 03:25:39 AM
 #5

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Looks like the last 30 day increase was 120%.

Guide to armory offline install on USB key:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241730.0
AussieHash
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September 24, 2013, 10:02:31 AM
 #6

I see some enter 50%, some 60&, some 80% or even lower than 50%

Does anyone know which % the most accurate difficulty increase might be? I don't know how to calculate this.

Thanks

365/12 = 30.4 days "per month"
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png = 2.5% compounding network growth/day
1.025^30.4 = 111% growth per month

Addendum : 1.305^(1/(14/1.305)) = 1.025, therefore predicted next difficulty change should be about 30.5%, every 10.72 days
OnkelPaul
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September 24, 2013, 10:34:08 AM
 #7

My mining calculator at http://www.coinish.com/calc/ uses the last 10 difficulty values to compute an estimated difficulty change per day.
Since it assumes that difficulty grows exponentially (which is currently not a bad estimate, even though it will taper off) you can calculate the weekly or monthly difficulty increase by simple exponentiation.
(of course, actual difficulty adjustments are made every 2016 blocks, so there is no daily increase, this is just an approximation)

Current estimate for daily increase is 1.9519%, which translates to about 80% per month or 14.5% per week.

Onkel Paul

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September 24, 2013, 10:45:04 AM
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September 25, 2013, 07:37:50 AM
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http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png = 2.5% compounding network growth/day
1.025^30.4 = 111% growth per month

Thats a good baseline, but keep  two things in mind :

- THe daily growth has been accelerating since the start of the year:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png
Its at 2.5%/day now, but there seems to be a strong trend upwards.

- This is before any 28nm asic has shipped. In the coming months, that growth estimate may well turn out to be much too low, depending if KnC/Hashfast/cointerra/ACM/BFL and others live up to their promises and how many of these rigs they can ship/deploy. The current growth is pretty much only due to Bitfury and BFL
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September 25, 2013, 11:08:05 AM
 #10

...and a huge quantity of AM USB sticks Wink

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October 12, 2013, 07:41:19 AM
 #11

80% until end of June 2014 then 0% thereafter Smiley

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