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Author Topic: Trading is gambling after all  (Read 920 times)
BlueStackz
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March 05, 2018, 05:54:25 AM
 #81

In a way trading could be considered gambling, but there a lot of different variations in gambling risk. What I mean is that some gambling games are completely games of chance like dice where there is no skill involved. But there are also games where skill is a factor such as in poker.

You can argue that risk in trading is lower if you are skilled at reading charts and if you do research on the coins you are trading. You may even be able to say that if you are highly skilled, trading may not really be gambling.
Normally, the meaning of gambling in the dictionary is doing something without knowing the possible outcome. If we all do, there is absolutely no way there would be stop loss, which is one thing I am pretty sure the whales (main market controllers) do not use since they are the ones who decide to direct the market the way they want. They are more like the house edge in this show, and they can never lose.

However, the only thing that makes it perfect than a normal gambling is you can still try to play safe with some skills and knowledge than someone who does not have.
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March 05, 2018, 07:19:03 AM
 #82

That may be true because even how good a trader you are, there will really be a time where you earn almost nothing. Trading is quite the risk since you are trading with a very risky digital currencies because of its market price volatility. You may bought a crypto at a very low price today and only realized that it will pump after a couple of years.

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Canis Majoris (OP)
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March 05, 2018, 10:59:56 AM
 #83

Ill analyze gambling vs poker vs trading in three different dimensions

-1: House edge and winning odds-
A. Gambling: The house has a fixed edge of 10% or so, there is no skill, and you will always lose in the long run
B. Poker: The house still has an edge of 10% via the rake, but you are playing other players so if you are 10% better than other players (or 20% depending on the maths here), then you will win in the long run. Its very hard to get this kind of skill but its possible.
C. Trading: The house has a rake of 0.4% via commissions, and the game is based on skill. So its much easier to beat the game than poker if you are only 0.4% better than the other players.

-2: Risk-
A. Gambling: Typically betting 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
B. Poker: Typically bettering 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
C: Trading: Uness you are using margin, the loss is rarely 100%. A typical crypto loss is around 5-10%. On the worst of days, bitcoin goes down maybe 50% before having a hard rebound and if you have patience you wont even need to take that loss. You control your risk. You can set stop losses, you can catch rebounds. A good trader only takes losses of less than 1-5%, and makes wins of 50%+. Youd have to be in dozens of these losing trades in a row to lose your money.

-3: Bitcoin X factor -
Bitcoin has historically been in a bull market. Even with the 'rake' and even as a bad trader, the odds are always highly in favor of investors. Its still a zero sum game but the people who pay are going to be the big time investors that buy at the very top of $1M (or maybe it was $20K). So if all you do is make long trades, it is very hard to lose fiat (but easy to lose coins). This of course will no longer be the case once bitcoin finally fails.

Well, it seems that I could agree on your third "dimension", that Bitcoin has been in a bull market for the last few years, but for the "has been" part. You likely know it better than most posters here how bad this can play out in the end, which you seem to admit yourself. Basically, we can't read the future, and it is particularly true in respect to long-term investments, especially in the crypto world. In short-term or day trading this is irrelevant since you are mostly riding the volatility thing anyway, and it is not going to disappear any time soon.

The other two points are cherry picking. I had been gambling a little in the past and I'm somewhat familiar with the things there. Most casinos have a house edge of around 0.5-1% nowadays, so it is not much different from trading fees. And you don't typically stake everything.
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March 05, 2018, 12:08:08 PM
 #84

Trading is risky, you also need some luck but no matter that all I wouldn't say that trading is the same as gambling.
For trading you need some skills and knowledge and as far as I'm concered trading is a job and in financial world is actualy considered to be a job. Also, there is no way that you can influence on gambling and how the final result is going to be but with trading is different, the result depends on you and your skills and ability to estimate the situation.

malaj
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March 05, 2018, 03:41:24 PM
 #85

I want to straighten it out, trading is not a gamble. Well, if you are just guessing in trading it can be said as gambling.
But here trading requires the expertise of the analyst so you do not lose.
Only a few people who think commerce is gambling because of the lack of science in trade, they just do their luck.

Most wannabe traders are gambling anyway. It works when the price steadily rises with minor pullbacks as was the case with Bitcoin for a couple of last years but it no longer works when a sideways market establishes. And then it starts to be a cut-throat competition and the vast majority of traders eventually lose. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what people think or how sophisticated their trading strategies are. It is the end result that counts, either profit or loss.
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March 05, 2018, 03:59:42 PM
 #86

I believe in this after all. In bitcoin, you will risk your money on something that has not any assurance wether it will lose or not. Any kind of risking is a form of gambling. Gambling unto your future. Making some 50/50 desicion if you still want to buy, trade or sell. If it goes up then you will win, if it drops down, you lose. Even if we deny it, we cannot accept the fact that it is still gambling.

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sachdientugoogle
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March 05, 2018, 04:01:16 PM
 #87

It's investing.
Buying and selling cryptocurrency is basically a new 21st century way of investing. It's like buying and selling currency, except Bitcoin is s digital currency that has no central authority.
So, we have established that buying and selling Bitcoin is an investment. Now we go back to your original question, is it gambling.
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March 05, 2018, 04:16:14 PM
 #88

I believe in this after all. In bitcoin, you will risk your money on something that has not any assurance wether it will lose or not. Any kind of risking is a form of gambling. Gambling unto your future. Making some 50/50 desicion if you still want to buy, trade or sell. If it goes up then you will win, if it drops down, you lose. Even if we deny it, we cannot accept the fact that it is still gambling.

But if you compare with stock trading, you will find the valid reason why Dow Jones stock is weak today ?
Oh because of Trump effect ( for example )

But in crypto world, anything can changed ( up to 20% ) without any valid reason so that's why bitcoin trading far riskier than ordinary trading !

Smiley
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March 05, 2018, 04:52:14 PM
 #89

I believe in this after all. In bitcoin, you will risk your money on something that has not any assurance wether it will lose or not. Any kind of risking is a form of gambling. Gambling unto your future. Making some 50/50 desicion if you still want to buy, trade or sell. If it goes up then you will win, if it drops down, you lose. Even if we deny it, we cannot accept the fact that it is still gambling.

But if you compare with stock trading, you will find the valid reason why Dow Jones stock is weak today ?
Oh because of Trump effect ( for example )

But in crypto world, anything can changed ( up to 20% ) without any valid reason so that's why bitcoin trading far riskier than ordinary trading !
Life is a gamble not only trading, trading is just one of the ways for you to earn  all what we are doing was a gamble and no assurance at all, so life is just a matter of how we are going through of just stop and we'll just be contented in what we do have currently.
Canis Majoris (OP)
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March 05, 2018, 07:46:55 PM
 #90

In the literal sense of what gambling means, we may attribute it a little bit to that, since it is mainly speculation and you are acting based on what indicators and charts are telling you and EXPECTING a positive outcome, but at the end, as long as you know what you are doing while doing proper analysis, your chances of having more profit than loss is guaranteed, which you cannot be able to have in dice, blackjack and co that is totally based on luck. Trading only becomes 100% gambling when you have no strategy and you are making bets on the market relying on luck, while it is far more than that.

Well, I see that people still miss my point. Me and a few other guys here have already said that Bitcoin is a zero-sum game mostly. Now imagine if purely hypothetically that there are no money-takers in the market and everyone is in the same boat. Then try to think how every trader can make profits in these circumstances. The main problem is not even it is simply impossible because there is only so much money in the market. It is that a small group of people will soon get all the money available in the system. And see how guaranteed are your chances of having profit if you belong to the majority of traders that will lose money.
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March 06, 2018, 05:14:48 AM
 #91

Well, it arguably is related to gambling in some points. But it is not 100% gambling. It is a fact that gambling and trading is about tactics, luck, and predictions. However, trading requires taking much time to do research about the whole market.

Gambling is just about mastering the game and see your opponents reactions if you are playing poker for example. Added to that, trading is about patience and it takes so much time for you to gain a good profit.

A good insight about the topic since gambling and trading are both risky but I think its still different from on its own definition and will always depend on the perception of one person. Trading requires so many things to become more successful, but yeah it can also be consider as a gambling since people are quiet more greed in terms of profit taking so for me its depend on your belief.
It totally depends on the way we want to look at it though. Like someone already rightly said, gambling is all about luck and if that is all you are relying on to make a trade without a strategy and you feel you are buying low and waiting to see if luck will let it increase so that you sell, then you are definitely gambling.

However, compared to the real gambling where everything is based on luck, you can use strategies to make good decisions but like the OP said, the whales will always have the highest advantage since they are the ones controlling the market and the smart traders are just tagging along while the gamblers are just betting any position they feel like.
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March 06, 2018, 08:04:22 AM
 #92

I think trading isn't a gamble and there are various factors that make the difference between trading and gambling in between,

1.Trader has assets or goods to be temporarily traded gamblers have only capital and courage in their activities.
2.The trader must have knowledge and strategies in the field of trading order can minimize losses while gambling has a chance and good luck to gamble
3.traders need to do the analysis of to know the prospect of the asset or goods that become the object of trade. .
   while gambling enough to have hope and luck alone
4.traders should be able to choose a good time to make trade transactions either selling or buying, while gambling every moment is a good time to bet.
5.Managment risks in trading need to be taken into account about the risk level of the trading transaction and of course attempted much as possible for to
   minimize the losses that will occurs, while the defeat in gambling is a consequence from within a game
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March 06, 2018, 03:59:18 PM
 #93

I wouldn't say that trading and gambling are the same, because trading and gambling are different by nature.Trade on my Demo account only,then the game ends))
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March 07, 2018, 05:59:10 AM
 #94

Trading isn't really gamble in real markets but cryptomarkets are very different. Noone surely knows their nature, as they are still very young. That's why it makes crypto trading - gambling. My experience showed that indicators don't work %70-80 of the time with bitcoin and others.

Is it? in my opinion, trading and gambling are so different that you cannot ever compare these things. Trading is a very hard work when you use mostly wits, not luck.
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March 07, 2018, 06:16:56 AM
 #95

Trading isn't really gamble in real markets but cryptomarkets are very different. Noone surely knows their nature, as they are still very young. That's why it makes crypto trading - gambling. My experience showed that indicators don't work %70-80 of the time with bitcoin and others.

Is it? in my opinion, trading and gambling are so different that you cannot ever compare these things. Trading is a very hard work when you use mostly wits, not luck.
We do have our own approach about this two things, those who already understand the difference will not agree that this two is just the same, but for those who just came in and still assessing the situations, they might say that it can be same in terms of possibilities as the huge fluctuations are killing
most traders who only relied with luck and own instinct before selecting their supported projects.
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March 07, 2018, 06:24:07 AM
 #96

Gambling can be termed as an educated guess. It isn't a pure gamble. A person does a thorough analysis of charts and patterns. Added to that, trader looks for the market sentiments as well. Whereas in gambling, most of the time it's pure luck. Both, trading and gambling, are the games of luck but in former, through analysis, chances are made better.
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March 07, 2018, 06:38:03 AM
 #97

With gambling, you will quickly lose all the money you have. With trading, just analyze and invest reasonably, if there is risk the money lost will not be too large. Do not compare trading and gambling.
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March 07, 2018, 06:55:00 AM
 #98

Trading and gambling are different but similar in a form of creating capital gain for a short period of time without assurance or cant be predicted the outcome.

But there are ways to maximize the chance to gain in trading like learning the right strategies, techniques and right discipline to not mixing your emotions in every decision you make.

So far this is effective when I trade compared to gambling that is more on luck and no strategies can save you from losing.

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March 07, 2018, 08:40:23 AM
 #99

In human endavour every things is gambling. Trading is an advance gambling and we have to let newbie know  that trading is a gambling and you cannot continue making money without loses and the odd is always against you because you can not predict the market 100% perfectly.  Don't trade without understanding how the market behave and of a truth cannot make money in forex, stock, commodities and cryptocurrencies without understanding the risk associating with it.
Yeah, I totally reason with that, since we cannot actually know the outcome anyway and all we do is make a decision based on the knowledge we have and the analysis we have done and expect a positive outcome which sometimes may also end up wrong but if done well, most of the time, it usually ends up well.

However, when we are comparing ourselves to the market controllers, we are really just gambling somehow but at the end of the day, it is a reasonable one when you know what you are doing.
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March 07, 2018, 12:27:08 PM
 #100

Well, it arguably is related to gambling in some points. But it is not 100% gambling. It is a fact that gambling and trading is about tactics, luck, and predictions. However, trading requires taking much time to do research about the whole market.

Gambling is just about mastering the game and see your opponents reactions if you are playing poker for example. Added to that, trading is about patience and it takes so much time for you to gain a good profit.
That simply explains the difference between it and the real gambling world. If we are to look at the literal meaning, one might say it is somehow related, but like Canis said, it all totally depends on the category of trader you belong to and adding to what he has stated, I would say those who trade without knowledge and those who trade with knowledge, and then we leave the whales out of it for now since they are the market controllers.

In essence, it becomes a pure gambling for someone without knowledge and a lower risk gambling for someone with knowledge, since they both do not know the outcome, but one is smarter than the other.

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