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Author Topic: What if mining suddenly becomes unprofitable for most miners?  (Read 6834 times)
User705
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September 26, 2013, 01:10:21 AM
 #41

Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.
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September 26, 2013, 02:29:34 AM
 #42

Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

+1

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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September 26, 2013, 02:12:25 PM
 #43

Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

Bolded for emphasis.

I think someone in the Mining sub calculated that 1st gen 130-110nm ASICs would maintain profitability against running costs up to a difficulty of nearly 2 billion. While we're only hitting 150 million right now, I think we are projected to multiply current hashrate (1 petahash) by many, many times if all these other ASIC manufacturers deliver product. And that's just what's been promised between now and February 2014. Big "if" in some cases, but I suspect they will mostly pull through within a 6 months timeframe, even if they don't deliver to their own (promotion influenced) targets. So things may finally settle around March next year, and it could easily reach above 2 billion difficulty, even if one manufacturer scams or folds.


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September 26, 2013, 02:34:09 PM
 #44

Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

I think this is true if you only consider the cost of the mining process and not the initial investment the mining equipment.

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September 27, 2013, 02:40:51 PM
 #45

if difficulty goes down it will be more profitable, im missing the problem?

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September 27, 2013, 03:19:41 PM
 #46

Since difficulty follows price, and price has corrected from the high, I expect difficulty to peak out too and correct due to unprofitable miners switching off equipment, just like in 2011. I would also think this will happen somewhere the coming months.

Since these are all feedback loops I wonder whether this event will have an influence on the btc price. Anyone knows?
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September 27, 2013, 03:39:12 PM
 #47

Since difficulty follows price, and price has corrected from the high, I expect difficulty to peak out too and correct due to unprofitable miners switching off equipment, just like in 2011. I would also think this will happen somewhere the coming months.

Since these are all feedback loops I wonder whether this event will have an influence on the btc price. Anyone knows?

difficulty will continue to go up for a long while still

once we reach the limits for producing the most efficient bitcoin mining machine, then hash rate will fall, but I think we are a long way off from that. idk but i feel like there will be more than 2 generations of ACIS before we reach this technological limitation.

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September 27, 2013, 04:06:07 PM
 #48

Since difficulty follows price, and price has corrected from the high, I expect difficulty to peak out too and correct due to unprofitable miners switching off equipment, just like in 2011. I would also think this will happen somewhere the coming months.

Since these are all feedback loops I wonder whether this event will have an influence on the btc price. Anyone knows?

difficulty will continue to go up for a long while still

once we reach the limits for producing the most efficient bitcoin mining machine, then hash rate will fall, but I think we are a long way off from that. idk but i feel like there will be more than 2 generations of ACIS before we reach this technological limitation.

thanks but not my question
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September 27, 2013, 06:15:16 PM
 #49

Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

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September 27, 2013, 06:28:10 PM
 #50

Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.



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September 27, 2013, 06:42:58 PM
 #51

Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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September 27, 2013, 07:02:16 PM
 #52

Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

And a 4800 piece of "hashing" is within most rent a home hobbyist budget?

My theory was as simple as it gets , it will cost less and less money to make an actual attack for the 51%
.
Don't forget that my FUD theory doesn't mean hey we buy 10 millions of equipment and get the necessary hashrate from the first second they plug in.

They just have to buy equipment as other miners do (even receive profit in the first stages ) and invest invest until this is going to make a loss for every miner (including them) and at that point when people quit  >1 hour > 10 blocks and bitcoin is doomed. (which I hope not)

Also...
Ebay buys online payment firm Braintree for about $800m to strengthen its PayPal division's presence on mobile devices

How much will they pay to "weaken" the other payment methods??

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September 27, 2013, 07:27:48 PM
 #53

Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

And a 4800 piece of "hashing" is within most rent a home hobbyist budget?

My theory was as simple as it gets , it will cost less and less money to make an actual attack for the 51%
.
Don't forget that my FUD theory doesn't mean hey we buy 10 millions of equipment and get the necessary hashrate from the first second they plug in.

They just have to buy equipment as other miners do (even receive profit in the first stages ) and invest invest until this is going to make a loss for every miner (including them) and at that point when people quit  >1 hour > 10 blocks and bitcoin is doomed. (which I hope not)

Also...
Ebay buys online payment firm Braintree for about $800m to strengthen its PayPal division's presence on mobile devices

How much will they pay to "weaken" the other payment methods??

And if they try to change the rules, we fork.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
User705
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September 27, 2013, 09:05:31 PM
 #54

What you think the result of a hard fork will be on adoption and exchange rates?
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September 27, 2013, 09:46:46 PM
 #55


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


Each of those miners maybe only draw 300w for 60Gh, but the number of those miners can be millions, thus the hash power will be very distributed around the world. Any single mining farm can not afford too much electricity and heat burden, they will be quickly overwhelmed by millions of miners with free electricity

Maybe some large mining farm can design water cooling devices and sell the hot water as a heating service, but due to quick technology advance in ASIC devices, that plan is also risky

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September 27, 2013, 10:04:33 PM
 #56

Also keep in mind small miners don't price out all the extras it takes to run the equipment.  Large scale facilities have to pay salaries, insurance, etc... etc...
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September 28, 2013, 07:07:57 AM
 #57

I think then, the miners that are remaining will profit from lower difficulty.
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September 28, 2013, 12:40:24 PM
 #58

everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.

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September 28, 2013, 02:13:57 PM
 #59

everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.

It could make sense at some point in the development of mining manufacturing, likely when the transaction fees regularly become a significant part of the block reward. That could take another 2 reward halvings though, so until then, it makes more sense to take the route of massive farm + selling complete mining units. And making sure the farm's online before they start shipping, of course

Vires in numeris
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September 28, 2013, 03:47:02 PM
 #60

everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.

after smoking a spliff (or two) i imagined a home radiator company that builds radiators that are actually miners. once bitcoin price is high enough one could market this as "heating for free"  Grin


edit: lol, misread "what if whining suddenly becomes unprofitable..."
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