60 GH/s Profitability

[Snipes777]

So BFL is finally sending me my 60 GH/s miner and I am trying to calculate profitability to determine if I should sell it or if I should mine with it. I am using: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

With the default settings, except wattage I bumped up to 400 Watts, Hash rate to 60 GH/s, cost of hardware to 1,500 and time frame to 12 months. I am getting a profit of just under 8k in the first year, but I must be missing something. The deal seems to be too good. Can someone tell me what I am missing?


Bitcoin difficulty: 112,628,549
Bitcoins per Block (BTC/block): 25.00
Conversion rate (USD/BTC): 130.16
Hash rate: 60 GH/s
Electricity rate (USD/kWh): 0.15
Power consumption (W): 450.00 (computer on some sort of inactive mode, while miner at 300+? dunno if this is accurate)
Time frame (months): 12
Cost of mining hardware (USD): 1500.00
Profitability decline per year: 0.61

Results

Difficulty:    112,628,549.00
Mining Factor 100 :   0.06 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts
Average generation time for a block (solo):    93 days, 7 hours (can vary greatly depending on your luck)
Hardware break even:    47 days
Net profit first time frame :   7957.73 USD
Coins per 24h at these conditions :   0.2679 BTC
Power cost per 24h:    1.62 USD
Revenue per day:    34.87 USD
Less power costs:    33.25 USD
System efficiency :   133.33 MH/s/W
Mining Factor 100 at the end of the time frame:    0.04 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Average Mining Factor 100:    0.05 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Power cost per time frame:    591.70 USD
Revenue per time frame:    10049.43 USD
Less power costs:    9457.73 USD

[the joint]

So BFL is finally sending me my 60 GH/s miner and I am trying to calculate profitability to determine if I should sell it or if I should mine with it. I am using: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

With the default settings, except wattage I bumped up to 400 Watts, Hash rate to 60 GH/s, cost of hardware to 1,500 and time frame to 12 months. I am getting a profit of just under 8k in the first year, but I must be missing something. The deal seems to be too good. Can someone tell me what I am missing?


Bitcoin difficulty: 112,628,549
Bitcoins per Block (BTC/block): 25.00
Conversion rate (USD/BTC): 130.16
Hash rate: 60 GH/s
Electricity rate (USD/kWh): 0.15
Power consumption (W): 450.00 (computer on some sort of inactive mode, while miner at 300+? dunno if this is accurate)
Time frame (months): 12
Cost of mining hardware (USD): 1500.00
Profitability decline per year: 0.61

Results

Difficulty:    112,628,549.00
Mining Factor 100 :   0.06 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts
Average generation time for a block (solo):    93 days, 7 hours (can vary greatly depending on your luck)
Hardware break even:    47 days
Net profit first time frame :   7957.73 USD
Coins per 24h at these conditions :   0.2679 BTC
Power cost per 24h:    1.62 USD
Revenue per day:    34.87 USD
Less power costs:    33.25 USD
System efficiency :   133.33 MH/s/W
Mining Factor 100 at the end of the time frame:    0.04 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Average Mining Factor 100:    0.05 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Power cost per time frame:    591.70 USD
Revenue per time frame:    10049.43 USD
Less power costs:    9457.73 USD

0.61 profitability decline per year?  There's your false assumption.

[Snipes777]

So what is a proper number range to look at?

[the joint]

So what is a proper number range to look at?

Well, right now we've been looking at 25-40% increases in difficulty every adjustment, and we've seen something like a 500% increase in difficulty over the past 3 months alone.

[bitcoiner49er]

Expect 12-15BTC

[vpasic]

this is more realistic calculator so try it!

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[Snipes777]

Ok, thanks everyone. I will probably just sell it and try to break even on the whole BFL debacle.

[polarhei]

There are new tokens available, the return rate can be unexpected.

[Ridicuss]

There are new tokens available, the return rate can be unexpected.

Sorry to show my ignorance. What does this mean? (new tokens)

[LilGhost]

Ok, thanks everyone. I will probably just sell it and try to break even on the whole BFL debacle.

Feel free to shoot me a pm. I wont pay retail price for it, but I wont low ball you either. We can escrow, but I'm looking to pay USD (paypal preferably).

[mjc]

You should be able to make 10 to 12 BTC in the next 3 months. It's over by Dec / Jan when Coin Terra starts to deliver.  Even at 4 PH (Jan Estimate) you stand to make 1.2 BTC / month or about $200 / month.  Right now you'll make like 4 times that.

All estimates of course.  I think a buyer will try to convince you that they will not make much, and sellers will convince they will make more.  I'm neither.

Given you paid $1,333 with shipping if in the US.  You'll likely break even then earn some free money.  If you sell it the buyer has to rip you off to make more than you or get ripped off and take a hit. 

I think buy/selling mining equipment risky for both parties, but the more educated of the two will likely make out.  So if you are on the board asking if you should sell, it's like jumping in the ocean with a large cut on your legs to see if there are sharks in the water.

I am not suggesting you cannot find someone that will make you a good deal, I just think you need to advance with caution.

Good luck.

[EzCheese]

You should be able to make 10 to 12 BTC in the next 3 months. It's over by Dec / Jan when Coin Terra starts to deliver.  Even at 4 PH (Jan Estimate) you stand to make 1.2 BTC / month or about $200 / month.  Right now you'll make like 4 times that.

All estimates of course.  I think a buyer will try to convince you that they will not make much, and sellers will convince they will make more.  I'm neither.

Given you paid $1,333 with shipping if in the US.  You'll likely break even then earn some free money.  If you sell it the buyer has to rip you off to make more than you or get ripped off and take a hit. 

I think buy/selling mining equipment risky for both parties, but the more educated of the two will likely make out.  So if you are on the board asking if you should sell, it's like jumping in the ocean with a large cut on your legs to see if there are sharks in the water.

I am not suggesting you cannot find someone that will make you a good deal, I just think you need to advance with caution.

Good luck.

I've been hitting up local folks who are trying to sell their ASIC miners at ridiculous prices.  I give them a very good offer and even provide http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ link with what they are trying to sell and show them ROI is not possible.  After this there is usually no response, but at least I try.  I'd love if someone could sell me something that will make me some money before the shit hits the fan in December.