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Author Topic: difficulty stabilizing?  (Read 2748 times)
mike678
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July 19, 2011, 06:57:34 PM
 #1

I've taken my data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016 and I recorded the ammount of days between difficulty changes starting May 26 to now.

Thu, 26 May 2011 18:41:56 GMT
11 days till increase
Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:25:05 GMT
9 days till increase
Wed, 15 Jun 2011 13:49:34 GMT
9 days till increase
Fri, 24 Jun 2011 11:45:23 GMT
12 days till increase
Wed, 06 Jul 2011 20:35:46 GMT
13 days till increase
Tues, 19 Jul 2011

As you can see from that information the difficulty changed the fastest in mid June and now is slowly moving towards the 14 day goal. Unless I'm mistaken the difficulty for the most part is stabilizing and by august we will have extremely low increases. This of course will only holds true as long as the price doesn't sky rocket.

I'd like to hear what others think about this.
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NetTecture
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July 19, 2011, 07:13:16 PM
 #2

Time to invest Wink
mike678
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July 19, 2011, 07:14:54 PM
 #3

Time to invest Wink
As true as this might be don't >.< I want a static difficulty lol
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July 19, 2011, 07:26:58 PM
 #4

Aside from someone randomly bringing a TH/s or two online right in the middle of it, I'd say difficulty is definitely stabilizing.

mike678
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July 19, 2011, 07:30:56 PM
 #5

New difficulty is in: 1690906

Thats only about an 8% increase so not too bad.
talldude
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July 19, 2011, 08:21:42 PM
 #6

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.
bcpokey
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July 19, 2011, 10:40:04 PM
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seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.
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July 19, 2011, 11:12:26 PM
 #8

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.
Yep, people are just taking it slowly because hardware doesn't pay for itself in 3 weeks at current price levels anymore.  And I think the reason a lot of people are mining instead of buying bitcoins directly anyway is to hedge their risk - if bitcoin takes a dump, they still have computer hardware they can sell to recover some of the initial investment.  So, theoretically, it could be said that miners are generally risk-averse.  When the profit margin for mining slims down, and high volatility still exists in the market, to where a miner might not even be turning a profit mining by the end of the week, and being that a miner is risk-averse in the first place, they're probably just in a holding pattern to see what will happen next.

Theoretically, you could buy hardware and still have it pay for itself in a few months, which is still an extremely good ROI, but you can't count on those future profits anymore, unless you're a risk-taker.
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July 19, 2011, 11:12:59 PM
 #9

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.

Tell me that Wink Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan Wink
SgtSpike
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July 19, 2011, 11:25:44 PM
 #10

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.

Tell me that Wink Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan Wink
That's like... 75GH/s?
NetTecture
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July 19, 2011, 11:33:36 PM
 #11

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.

Tell me that Wink Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan Wink
That's like... 75GH/s?

Only at 1000 USD per gigahash Wink it is about right due to infrastructure overhead Wink Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities Wink If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards.

There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off.
sven
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July 20, 2011, 12:05:56 AM
 #12

we only had these huge difficulty jumps due sudden media attention and the following price of 30$ per bitcoin
bcpokey
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July 20, 2011, 12:40:18 AM
 #13

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.

Tell me that Wink Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan Wink
That's like... 75GH/s?

Only at 1000 USD per gigahash Wink it is about right due to infrastructure overhead Wink Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities Wink If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards.

There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off.

I consider you the exception, not the norm. However I honestly would love to have done what you did, but I'm not in a location or position to do so right at the moment. Timing can be a bish sometimes. Kudos to you though for jumping in head first. If it pays off you will have a nice little cash cow on your hands Smiley
SgtSpike
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July 20, 2011, 05:38:48 AM
 #14

seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.

Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though.

I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent.

Tell me that Wink Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan Wink
That's like... 75GH/s?

Only at 1000 USD per gigahash Wink it is about right due to infrastructure overhead Wink Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities Wink If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards.

There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off.
Nice!  When I first heard of bitcoin mining in late April, I dumped $1100 into computer hardware.  Granted, I manged to score some good deals and ended up with almost 2 GH/s for that $1100, but still, I dumped everything I could get away with and still pay my mortgage into mining equipment.  If I had $75k, I would have spent every penny on mining rigs, no question about it.  And it would have made me about $200k in coins by now too...!

I'd still do it in a heartbeat if I had the extra money.  Smiley

Good luck with the venture.
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July 20, 2011, 05:55:01 AM
 #15

The real question is --

For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else?

I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful.
He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary.

But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures.

The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*.

After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore.

I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun!
SgtSpike
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July 20, 2011, 06:00:18 AM
 #16

The real question is --

For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else?

I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful.
He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary.

But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures.

The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*.

After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore.

I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun!

I dare you to find a better investment (risk not included) than bitcoin mining, even at this stage of the game.  100% ROI in a matter of months?  That's virtually unheard of in the business world.
Bitcoin_Silver_Supply
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July 20, 2011, 06:04:28 AM
 #17

The real question is --

For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else?

I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful.
He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary.

But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures.

The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*.

After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore.

I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun!


What happened to the "difficulty will rise 50% over and over until the sea levels rise and the taps pour blood and the white horsemen arrive" predictions, Angelus?
AngelusWebDesign
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July 20, 2011, 06:04:37 AM
 #18

If it's true that a return on investment can be counted on within, say, 6 months -- then it logically follows that there will be a lot more entrepreneurs getting into the game in the coming months. NetTecture is only the vanguard.

Until Bitcoin mining reaches a parity with other business ventures (risk, payoff potential, capital and labor requirements, etc.), mining businesses will continue to sprout up like mushrooms.

We haven't seen the end of network expansion yet. Not even close.
AngelusWebDesign
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July 20, 2011, 06:06:42 AM
 #19

The real question is --

For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else?

I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful.
He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary.

But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures.

The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*.

After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore.

I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun!


What happened to the "difficulty will rise 50% over and over until the sea levels rise and the taps pour blood and the white horsemen arrive" predictions, Angelus?

5 BTC right now from my wallet to yours if you can find the quote where I said that (and I'm not talking about the white horseman part, either -- just predictions of difficulty reaching 10 million, etc.)

Because that was someone else, not me. Sorry.

All I said (weeks ago) was that many people were making monthly (if not yearly) profit projections, and were not taking difficulty calculations into account. That is foolish.

Others apparently have been much more simplistic in their predictions of difficulty. You seem to have me confused with them.

Peoples memories can be very fuzzy. Especially when their reading comprehension is fuzzy to begin with.

Matthew
AngelusWebDesign
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July 20, 2011, 06:09:37 AM
 #20

tl;dr (for the young'uns) -- I'm not here to defend predictions I never made. It's not my fault some people trust the lies and name-calling that passes for criticism on this forum.
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