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Author Topic: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late  (Read 441 times)
Vaskiy
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February 28, 2018, 09:40:33 PM
 #21

With sports betting the odds vary based on the match situation. Based on this fact it is good to place bets once after the match starts. Placing bets before the event or close to the line of start yields profit, but need good strategy based understanding about the teams involved.

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February 28, 2018, 10:35:57 PM
 #22

This is an interesting strategy that not many people know, one of the good thing in sport betting is, there are always good odds even if you are  betting late, and I like to bet late, in that way I can see the situation and how well the player performed before I decided to bet, and usually betting late strategy is more effective than early bet, I got more profit from betting in the middle of the game
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March 01, 2018, 12:35:58 AM
 #23


Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU
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March 01, 2018, 12:58:15 AM
 #24


Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Thanks buddy.
I remember reading this article published at Pinnacle.

Three years ago, I had 2 days off and opened an Excel sheet, and started entering random tennis matches (I used oddsportal and Pinnacle).
I selected a total of 1200 matches (pretty nice sample).
The results I found:

- betting on Pinnacle closing lines gave me a total negative ROI of -2%
- beating Pinnacle closing lines by 5% or more gave me a ROI of +2%

It means it is very hard to be profitable because of course Pinnacle applies a margin on every odds (small margin but it is still a margin), for example if the margin on odds is 5%, you will have to beat the closing line by 6% or more. Really not easy to do.

 There is also this article > https://easysportbet.co.uk/why-are-closing-odds-more-accurate-than-opening-odds/
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March 01, 2018, 03:37:03 AM
 #25


Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU
Thanks for sharing this reference as it is a good tool to read and understand the importance of having knowledge to have some edge inside the sports house. With this information, we will be able to analyze and find interesting matches that will lead us to earn little, and together with luck, I guess
chances are much higher than without any knowledge and just betting with our instincts to win.
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March 01, 2018, 03:53:34 AM
 #26

Although early provide more odds but it's difficult to predict. But , yes it's just same as high risk high reward gameplay on dice
I'm personally choose the late one because I've made some profit from it ! ( guessing the final result for last world cup and I've made 7x from initial deposit )

Smiley
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March 01, 2018, 05:27:04 AM
 #27

I think that's a very cheating way, but yes if we win we get a little bit different, it's different from the players who come in at the beginning of the game, if we just look for a chance in the middle of the game the chance to get a little money, and we better play from scratch and think smart in following the gambling
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March 01, 2018, 07:00:05 PM
 #28

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time.
Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.


PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

Thanks for your comment, and it makes perfect sense what you are saying. I do bet at betfair, because like I said I prefer to follow a "traders" approach, intead of a punters approach. In some games I just bet live because I use strategies to trade live markets, where my preferred method is to go live on big tennis matches, and scalp the market. It's been working for me, and that's why I do it.

This is why I never looked to carefully to the differences between the odds, since I always make multiple live bets, to make profit, and I don't need the team I bet to win or lose. Sometimes, specially in tennis matches, I start on one player, and I end up getting more profit if the other player wins, because I made the necessary adjustments after my live analysis.

I will start paying attention though, because I might end up going live already with profit, and that will help me even more.
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March 02, 2018, 08:48:52 AM
 #29

@reactorjuno - thanks for sharing that article. Yeah, betting the closing line in a consistent and significant fashion really isn't that easy to do, haha. Guess that's why most bettors are - ROI over the long-term.

@BoltBrownie - sounds like you are pretty good at live betting. Unfortunately, that really is one of my greatest weaknesses. Any particular strategies you use when betting live that you care to share?
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March 02, 2018, 10:55:05 AM
 #30

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

     ⚄  DICE  ⚄   ► Roll & Win   ► Feel The Adrenaline   ► No Ads   ► Earn Bitcoins   OneHash.com     
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March 02, 2018, 11:28:24 AM
 #31

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.
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March 02, 2018, 12:10:54 PM
 #32

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.
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March 02, 2018, 08:17:32 PM
 #33

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.
Well I think either you bet earlier or later than game, you will not be getting a healthy results. In both cases there is more risk to your amount that is being indulged in betting. Why to go for such option that is at high risk? Don’t you think we must use this handsome amount in suitable manner or any asset like bitocin trading or gold as well, to get a good output from it? You must think.
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March 03, 2018, 02:03:31 AM
 #34

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.

Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).
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March 03, 2018, 07:46:10 AM
 #35

Bet on a Clear and Rational Mind

In betting in playing sports betting it is very necessary to have a clear mind and rationality in installing any bet, because if you place a bet involving emotions then surely you will experience defeat and loss because you will no longer refer to sports betting tips and sportsbook gambling information and the data you earn to place a bet, let alone the team that will compete is your favorite team and your pet.

You have to stay rational to be able to reap huge profits in the game, not just because your favorite team plays you to place bets on your favorite team by putting aside the data and information you have got.
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March 03, 2018, 08:27:17 AM
 #36

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

That is the risk one needs to take if they want a better odds in sports betting and winning chances are almost equal. But for this kind of betting you should know both players or teams very well and their recent performance then you can make a better judgment to pick the team to bet before the match start. You may have a better chance to win the bet if you bet during a live match but odds on winning team will not that be great during a live match.
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March 03, 2018, 11:49:59 AM
 #37

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

Well its depend on circumstances like that but for me betting late are quiet better because you can still make your analysis if your team will won on their next game. Though its hard to bet late specially in real life because people might not accept your bet because the team your betting is about to win.
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March 03, 2018, 12:58:15 PM
 #38

Check this picture guys > https://image.ibb.co/kJduJS/picture.jpg
Well here there is inside information surely.
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March 03, 2018, 04:17:16 PM
 #39

i have been experience bets early and bets late while watching live matches but if i have to compare the results of my sport betting my early bets pretty much better rather than bets late but sometimes indeed depend on the situations on the particular matches however i more confident to bets early for sport betting
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March 04, 2018, 06:43:55 AM
 #40


Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).

Didn't realize that other sportsbooks waited for Pinnacle to open their lines. Makes sense now as I always hear about other people comparing/modeling their data in regards to Pinnacle's lines -> they must have some of the most accurate ones overall. Thanks for sharing.

And that picture you showed, lol. Yeah, people are all over those lines within MINUTES.
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